Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?

[homer]

Doesn't feel like enough at this point but then again the brain trust has been able to turn trash into treasure several times over so I will let things play out and see what happens.

[JohnBriggs12]

What this totally revamped lineup can produce day to day is a mystery. Their floor isn't bad but I don't see a real high ceiling unless Hiura is a monster over a full season. I believe they are one solid starter and two bullpen arms from being contenders. They let go of a ton of solid innings provided by Guerra, and the real MVP for the last month of the season Drew Pomeranz. I just don't see a replacement for either of those two. Had they retained Lyles, re-signed Guerra and found a way to keep Pomeranz they would be solid contenders. Now they're simply a middling team needing an awful lot to go right. I think the Reds are a 95-97 win team. They can trot out Castillo, Bauer and Gray in a 3 game series and dominate and a middle of the lineup with Suarez, Castellanos and Moose is daunting. The Cardinals are in the 87-90 range and the Brewers and Cubs will be fighting it out for 3rd.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I have an extremely difficult time believing the Reds bought 22 wins this offseason.

 

If you don't see a replacement for Drew Pomeranz, that's probably OK, because they got him in July for Dubon. They'll continue finding guys like that because they're smart.

 

The 2019 Brewers were a middling team for most of the year, which was an achievement considering just how much didn't go their way. I mean, through mid August, what were the bright spots of the team? I have a much easier time listing off all the things that tanked.

[CheezWizHed]

With the short-term FAs deals last year, I expected that to be a bit of a spike year. I'm actually ok if the Brewers step back a bit this year (not that I want it), if they are retooling. They made more long-term moves this year and might be able to push back up again in a year or two. Right now, I'd guess they will bounce between a 500 team and a Wild Card contention.

 

But there is a chance to be a World Series contender if several things go right:

- LoCain healthy and bounce back at the top of the order.

- Knebel healthy and back to the old Evil Knebel

- Burnes pitching (and hopefully starting) like '18 and not '19

- Braun, Hiura and Yelich: '19 repeat

- New players play better D than advertised

 

Granted, I think last year people pegged them for 85-88 wins and a lot of things went right for them to contend for the WS.

[jerichoholicninja]

Isn't this thread just every single other thread consolidated into one?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Isn't this thread just every single other thread consolidated into one?

 

That's kinda the point. Every thread lately has devolved into this argument ... heck, even the thread discussing the minor league deal for Shelby Miller. I thought that by creating a seperate thread to discuss a topic that is obviously on a lot of posters' minds, it might keep some of the other threads more on point.

[jerichoholicninja]

Isn't this thread just every single other thread consolidated into one?

 

That's kinda the point. Every thread lately has devolved into this argument ... heck, even the thread discussing the minor league deal for Shelby Miller. I thought that by creating a seperate thread to discuss a topic that is obviously on a lot of posters' minds, it might keep some of the other threads more on point.

 

I guess, except it will just devolve into "Mark is cheap!!!!" and "Look what Stearns has done the last two years. Trust him." like every other thread.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If we keep "Mark is selling snake oil" to one thread, that's a win.

[TJseven7]

The early rush of position player signings had me feeling very confident in the Brewers holding their place in this league. I saw upgraded depth and Hiura Narvaez Garcia carrying much of the loss from 2019 offensively. The pieces they added around that look to be where the depth upgrades. At that time I was not concerned at all.

 

Then it stopped.

 

I had assumed once the position players sorted themselves out that the pitching staff would get a few more additions. Heck, Jeffress just went for 850K to the Cubs and even if his 2019 flamed out in June July and August, having another option who has his track record would help the pen's depth. However, the pitching staff additions seem to have come to a halt and the market dries up further by the day. Between signings and bad medicals coming to light the pitching available is very thin.

 

I feel very comfortable with 2 of the 5 starting pitchers. I'm very comfortable with 5 guys in the pen. I'm hopeful Anderson can be healthy, Lindblom can carry solid innings and either Peralta or Houser can keep the boat afloat. Despite liking 5 guys in the pen I think a CL and SU is missing and that's a lot of missing at the top of the food chain. There are too many question marks and completely unknowns with this pitching staff and I don't see enough options in the system. 2021 it should be much deeper as guys move up the ranks. 2020 feels like we are walking into a mess like we did in 2019. I feel like this team is going to need a Swarzak Lyles and Pom at the deadline if they want to be taken seriously. Pulling those guys out of thin air is not as easy as MKE has made it look over the past years.

 

I'm not concerned about the competition in the Central. I'm not the type who worries about what other teams are doing. If you build your team right then you are doing all you can do and you'll take care of business more often than not. MKE did everything right on offense. People grumble about its lack of flash but the numbers are there on paper. It adds up. MKE did great work when they dealt in Lauer Urias Narvaez. The pitching, like last year, doesn't have the feel of a pitching staff that's meant to contend. Too many of these guys are growing towards their roles with a contending team. That's going to drag the team down.

 

Do I think they are a contender for the playoffs in 2020? Currently, I think they fall a bit short. I think that bit short is going to show up when Peralta/Houser/Suter are forced into the rotation and Hader is pitching with a pen made up of what we hope is cooked spaghetti. We're going to chuck a bunch of it at the wall, and we'll see if it sticks. That's very risky and it's a part of what sunk this team in the early parts of 2019.

 

People talk about how losing DJ hurt the team. In 2018 every nobody MKE called up into the pen worked. In 2019 every single guy on the shuttle came with a can of gas.

 

Had they added one more SP, CL (type who can take the ball late to cover our butts if Knebel can't) and a SU man. MKE would be a playoff team. I'm not even talking high end talent. Simply ho hum non needle moving quality. Cishek at SU as an example. Gausman Gio Lyles Miley Teheran type arm and yes they all got overpaid but had we known the market was going to spike like this we should have kept Chase. Add a Joe Smith or Hector Rodon type. That's 20 mil more spent and solidifies the pitching staff. All short term spending.

CL SU Hader Houser Peralta Suter Knebel Claudio/Black would do the trick and the AAA depth shuttle would be stacked a mile high.

 

And yes, I get that the market was hot. I get that the values didn't fall through like I hoped. I get that 3 guys I liked are still out there but appear to be more damaged than anticipated. (Walker McHugh Sanchez) I get that DS sticks to his values and I respect that. However, now we are left short and that's a bad place to be in. DS did great work this off season. He hit a 40 foot putt with 3 breaks and it was perfectly on line. It hitched up 3 feet short. Now we gotta hope the spaghetti is cooked, because if it's not, 2020 likely is.

[monty57]

I think Stearns tries to operate in a fashion where the team will continue to remain competitive year-after-year, never "going all in" for one year. I think that's why he passed on older guys who required four-year deals to sign, which may have helped this year, but likely would have made it more difficult to win down the road as a significant portion of our payroll would be spent on declining players.

 

We have a fairly strong core of guys who are under contract for quite a few years. Stearns added a few more guys to that core in Urias, Lauer and Narvaez. The rest of the additions are guys who he hopes will help put us over the top this year, but won't hurt us long-term if they don't pan out.

 

I remember a few years back when the big debate on this site was "window" vs "revolving core" strategies. I'm very excited with the way Stearns is building this franchise, so yes I do believe the Brewers can contend this year, and just as important is that they didn't do anything that should hurt their chances of continuing to contend for the foreseeable future.

 

Narvaez is 28 and will probably make around $12M for the three years we have him. Grandal is 31 and will cost the White Sox $74M for the four years they have him. It's not too far-fetched to think that Narvaez could outperform Grandal over the next three years. We got Garcia for 2/$20M with a club option instead of paying 4/$64M with opt-outs and a player option in Castellanos. All things (i.e. defense) considered, I don't think Castellanos is that much better a player than Garcia. I view Lauer as a younger, left-handed version of Davies with more team control. Urias was a much more highly-tauted prospect than Grisham at a position of greater need.

 

I would've liked a better option at 3B, and everyone would like a top-of-the rotation starter. I just think that Stearns didn't like the options at the price/years it would've taken, so he went the route he did. We still have a couple of weeks to swing an Arcia trade, but if Urias' injury is worse than hoped, we may be happy we're still holding onto Orlando.

 

All-in-all, I'm pleased with the way Stearns is operating, and I'm looking forward to seeing how the team looks.

[clancyphile]

Short answer: Yes.

 

They have done enough to match 2019, and get a wild card spot - where anything can happen.

 

For me, the big questions center around folks who will be in San Antonio and Biloxi this year. Will some of Drew Rasmussen, Corbin Burnes, Quintin Torres-Costa, Clayton Andrews, Cooper Hummel, Trey Supak, Jake Gatewood, Zack Brown, Lucas Erceg, Corey Ray, Tyrone Taylor, Weston Wilson, Dylan File, Alec Bettinger, Bowden Francis, and Josh Nottingham step up and contribute?

 

If they do, it could be the kind of boost the Crew got from Peralta and Burnes in 2018 - and that year, the Crew was one game away from the World Series.

[TJseven7]

Short answer: Yes.

 

They have done enough to match 2019, and get a wild card spot - where anything can happen.

 

For me, the big questions center around folks who will be in San Antonio and Biloxi this year. Will some of Drew Rasmussen, Corbin Burnes, Quintin Torres-Costa, Clayton Andrews, Cooper Hummel, Trey Supak, Jake Gatewood, Zack Brown, Lucas Erceg, Corey Ray, Tyrone Taylor, Weston Wilson, Dylan File, Alec Bettinger, Bowden Francis, and Josh Nottingham step up and contribute?

 

If they do, it could be the kind of boost the Crew got from Peralta and Burnes in 2018 - and that year, the Crew was one game away from the World Series.

 

Again Clancy, that's a lot of "stuff." However, they need Burnes and Rasmussen to pan out quick and in the worst way possible.

[Bikeage77]

I still haven't renewed my ten pack, and the only reason we get that instead of the monthly pass is to guarantee we can get playoff tickets. As of right now, our group is getting that monthly pass.

[TJseven7]

Doesn't feel like enough at this point but then again the brain trust has been able to turn trash into treasure several times over so I will let things play out and see what happens.

 

You are 100% right but here's my question. Is the trash heap big enough in the pitching department? I don't think they collected enough "trash" to sort through until they find something of worth.

[homer]

Doesn't feel like enough at this point but then again the brain trust has been able to turn trash into treasure several times over so I will let things play out and see what happens.

 

You are 100% right but here's my question. Is the trash heap big enough in the pitching department? I don't think they collected enough "trash" to sort through until they find something of worth.

 

Depends. Wahl and Knebel will both be back. If Ray Black takes a jump...then you have several pickups several of whom had big K/IP numbers in the high minors. But yeah that's a lot of "well if all these guys pitch to their ceiling" type of arguments. I still think they have a few more moves up their sleeve before the season starts.

[KeithStone53151]

Depends. Wahl and Knebel will both be back. If Ray Black takes a jump...then you have several pickups several of whom had bi K/IP numbers in the high minors. But yeah that's a lot of "well if all these guys pitch to their ceiling" type of arguments. I still think they have a few more moves up their sleeve before the season starts.

 

This was noted in another thread, but Milwaukee would probably be pretty high on guys list for a minor league deal. If offered one with the Marlins, Astros, and Brewers...I think the Brewers are probably the choice. Marlins are gonna suck, Astros have less opportunity. The Brewers have an interesting dynamic in that a minor league deal guy can certainly earn a spot if they can find another gear, yet we have a roster talented enough to contend.

 

So I tend to agree with you. We will probably bring in a few guys on minor league deals, primarily pitchers. There's also certainly the possibility of a small trade or two to bring in a solid bullpen arm to add some stability there.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Brewers not only have opportunity, they have recently had some fringe players paid very well after stopping here briefly.

[TJseven7]

Doesn't feel like enough at this point but then again the brain trust has been able to turn trash into treasure several times over so I will let things play out and see what happens.

 

You are 100% right but here's my question. Is the trash heap big enough in the pitching department? I don't think they collected enough "trash" to sort through until they find something of worth.

 

Depends. Wahl and Knebel will both be back. If Ray Black takes a jump...then you have several pickups several of whom had big K/IP numbers in the high minors. But yeah that's a lot of "well if all these guys pitch to their ceiling" type of arguments. I still think they have a few more moves up their sleeve before the season starts.

 

But the big pieces in the past 2 years have been

Chacin Miley Jeffress Gio (Gio and Miley came on later in 2018)

Gio Lyles Pom Suter (notice how none of these guys were in place to start 2019)

 

Anderson and maybe Shelby Miller are the only guys who fit that type of profile. They've done a great job of putting polish on guys who have hung around the league for a long long time and I don't see the vets part of it in the 2020 model just like we didn't see it in the 2019 model.

 

Remember in 2018-2019 we still had Chase and Davies in that mix as well. Now both are gone. If Lauer replaces Davies, Anderson replaces Anderson, then Lindblom has to pull out a Chacin year for us to be short Jeffress in our system. That's right out of the gate.

 

They have the "option" options covered well. They are lacking the "rebuild a vet options" who have a long track record of being MLB guys.

 

It's so thin on the veteran options that I'd actually be excited to see them land Cashner right now.

[Lathund]

I think Stearns tries to operate in a fashion where the team will continue to remain competitive year-after-year, never "going all in" for one year. I think that's why he passed on older guys who required four-year deals to sign, which may have helped this year, but likely would have made it more difficult to win down the road as a significant portion of our payroll would be spent on declining players.

 

We have a fairly strong core of guys who are under contract for quite a few years. Stearns added a few more guys to that core in Urias, Lauer and Narvaez. The rest of the additions are guys who he hopes will help put us over the top this year, but won't hurt us long-term if they don't pan out.

 

I remember a few years back when the big debate on this site was "window" vs "revolving core" strategies. I'm very excited with the way Stearns is building this franchise, so yes I do believe the Brewers can contend this year, and just as important is that they didn't do anything that should hurt their chances of continuing to contend for the foreseeable future.

 

Narvaez is 28 and will probably make around $12M for the three years we have him. Grandal is 31 and will cost the White Sox $74M for the four years they have him. It's not too far-fetched to think that Narvaez could outperform Grandal over the next three years. We got Garcia for 2/$20M with a club option instead of paying 4/$64M with opt-outs and a player option in Castellanos. All things (i.e. defense) considered, I don't think Castellanos is that much better a player than Garcia. I view Lauer as a younger, left-handed version of Davies with more team control. Urias was a much more highly-tauted prospect than Grisham at a position of greater need.

 

I would've liked a better option at 3B, and everyone would like a top-of-the rotation starter. I just think that Stearns didn't like the options at the price/years it would've taken, so he went the route he did. We still have a couple of weeks to swing an Arcia trade, but if Urias' injury is worse than hoped, we may be happy we're still holding onto Orlando.

 

All-in-all, I'm pleased with the way Stearns is operating, and I'm looking forward to seeing how the team looks.

 

This is pretty much what I came in here to say.

 

In addition to that, I think the 2020 team (And I don't think they're done, even if I don't expect any huge moves) is good enough to challenge for the division. They could also not, if the wrong players are hurt etc. I just think that they've done a good job of replacing the loss of Moose and Grandal (Though Grandals combination of offense and defense will be missed no matter what), and I like the additions to the rotation. I'd just like to see some more pitching added. I'm a big Houser fan, I believe Lindblom will do well. I've also maintained that Burnes is much, much better than the results he produced last year, as is Peralta. I'm optimistic about the pitching; I would just like there to be more of a contingency plan in place, or at least one more pitcher ahead of them on the depth charge to start the year.

[Eye Black]

Doesn't feel like enough at this point but then again the brain trust has been able to turn trash into treasure several times over so I will let things play out and see what happens.

Yeah, it could certainly work if the majority of players they added this off-season perform at league average levels (or slightly better). From a fan perspective it isn’t nearly as exciting as the additions of the past two off-seasons, but ultimately it could work out just fine.

 

I think they have done enough to contend for a playoff spot, but I would put their odds at less than a coin flip of actually making the playoffs. I think their most likely range of wins is somewhere between 82-90, with 85 being my current prediction. I also have a gut feeling that only one NL Central team is going to make the playoffs this year.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Doesn't feel like enough at this point but then again the brain trust has been able to turn trash into treasure several times over so I will let things play out and see what happens.

Yeah, it could certainly work if the majority of players they added this off-season perform at league average levels (or slightly better). From a fan perspective it isn’t nearly as exciting as the additions of the past two off-seasons, but ultimately it could work out just fine.

 

I think they have done enough to contend for a playoff spot, but I would put their odds at less than a coin flip of actually making the playoffs. I think their most likely range of wins is somewhere between 82-90, with 85 being my current prediction. I also have a gut feeling that only one NL Central team is going to make the playoffs this year.

 

To be honest I prefer what they've done this year. I loved Grandal, and Moose was a good player for the Brewers, but the Brewers had a real problem last year with 6-8 in the lineup for a lot of the season. I'm anticipating that's not going to be as bad this season. None of them may be world beaters, but what I like about this group offensively is that I think it has a higher floor than last year's team. I like the addition of Smoak a lot and think he'll fit in nicely, but they have a nice balance of guys to play matchups and should be cutting back on Ks a lot.

 

I like the lineup. I'm indifferent about the SP; I expect it to be very similar and hoping for a bounce back from Burnes. The bullpen is where they're going to add or drop key games that make the difference.

[sveumrules]

I think they have done enough to contend for a playoff spot, but I would put their odds at less than a coin flip of actually making the playoffs. I think their most likely range of wins is somewhere between 82-90, with 85 being my current prediction. I also have a gut feeling that only one NL Central team is going to make the playoffs this year.

 

I think every team in the NL besides the Dodgers will open the season with their odds at less than a coin flip of actually making the playoffs.

 

Any of ATL, WAS, NYM or PHI could win the East & any of STL, MIL, CHI or CIN could win the Central plus ARI will probably be in the wild card mix, especially since the NL West has the weakest overall division & gets the ALC for interleague.

 

That's nine teams for four spots. At this way too early juncture it seems like the NLE is a little stronger at the top than the NLC so I'd say the most likely outcome is ARI plus the NLE runner up as the wild cards, but one of my favorite things about baseball is the most likely outcome isn't always the outcome that comes out.

[Ennder]

Starting pitching's value hasn't been this low since the early 1900s when the glove was first put into common use. Starters hitting doesn't really matter much anymore, they don't go as many innings as they used to, shifts protect them from their weaker matchups, bullpens protect them when they get in trouble, strike outs protect them from BABIP and hard hit rates more than they used to. If one part of the team is uncertain the absolute best spot for it to be is in the rotation. I know some posters will balk at this but it simply the truth in today's game.

 

The 2018 Red Sox won with really only one good starter since Sale was hurt. The 2015 Royals won with no good starters. Their bullpen won more games than the starters did in the playoffs. The 2014 Giants had one good starter, he dominated the series but he was really the only guy. I think you have to go all the way back to 2013 to find a time when the starters really dominated a series on both sides and decided who won it all.

[TJseven7]

Starting pitching's value hasn't been this low since the early 1900s when the glove was first put into common use. Starters hitting doesn't really matter much anymore, they don't go as many innings as they used to, shifts protect them from their weaker matchups, bullpens protect them when they get in trouble, strike outs protect them from BABIP and hard hit rates more than they used to. If one part of the team is uncertain the absolute best spot for it to be is in the rotation. I know some posters will balk at this but it simply the truth in today's game.

 

The 2018 Red Sox won with really only one good starter since Sale was hurt. The 2015 Royals won with no good starters. Their bullpen won more games than the starters did in the playoffs. The 2014 Giants had one good starter, he dominated the series but he was really the only guy. I think you have to go all the way back to 2013 to find a time when the starters really dominated a series on both sides and decided who won it all.

 

I don't disagree. However, does MKE have the pen to protect the starters? Will MKE have anyone left in the pen if a starter or 2 get hurt or flame out. If Anderson goes down and Houser has to go to the pen, you are looking at a pen of Hader Houser and AAA guys.

 

Somebody's got to protect somebody. Hader can't protect everyone.

 

I've been advocating for 2 off season now (2018 made me see a new angle)

1 starter in the 3.5 range (Woodruff)

4 starters in the 3.9 to 4.3 range (Anderson Lauer Lindblom is 3... who is 4)

Depth (Burnes?)

2 guys in the pen around 2.5 (Hader and Knebel hopefully)

3 guys in the 3.5 range (Suter Houser Peralta)

3 guys chipping in around 4 to 4.5 (not a concern)

Depth (in spades, but it's depth, bumping it to the 3 guys at the bottom fine. Expecting it to be in the top 5, risky)

 

The depth isn't there in the important 10. If you solve the 5th spot with Houser you open up the 3rd spot in the pen. If there is an injury now you open up 2 spots in the pen. Knebel is also wishful thinking.

 

It's just not deep enough. If Burnes, File (etc) Rasmussen and Brown (pen) can get into the mix, then it should be fine but expecting that before 2021 is in a word, unlikely.

[Ennder]

Well bullpens are so random year to year that it is a super hard question to answer. There is a lot of upside the the bullpen but well there isn't a ton of certainty. I do think you are underselling it some though. Wahl seems to have real potential. Knebel is coming back. Williams and Black have potential etc, even Claudio wasn't really bad last year. It is really hard to know with bullpens. I think bullpens are really important in today's game but out of all of the positions on a team they are the hardest to predict as well.