Castellanos to Reds 4 years 16M a year?

[BrewBalls]

I think a lot of the backbiting on the Castellanos deal is due to the fact the Reds have accomplished a lot of what Brewers fans have been wanting over the past year-ish as it pertains to acquiring talent. It began with the Reds getting Derek Johnson to be the pitching coach, continued with the Reds acquiring a TOR starter in Trevor Bauer at the Trade Deadline when Brewer fans were clamoring for one, and has concluded in free agency where the Reds signed Brewer fan targets of Miley, Moustakas and Castellanos.

 

Looking at the aforementioned scenarios, the acquisition of Derek Johnson and signing of Mike Moustakas are really the only ones that I think have truly hurt the Brewers. We have bemoaned the loss of Johnson but it was more about family then anything else IIRC. I think we all would feel better about the Brewers chances by simply writing Moose at 3B then Gyorko/Sogard/whoever but at $16m per for 4 years, it's a bit much.

 

Avisail Garcia and Nick Castellanos is close to a push and for $6m per year less. Miley, while good with the Brewers in 2017, was basically scrap heap material prior to. Brett Anderson could very well match the output of Miley for $2.5m less and 1 less guaranteed year.

 

All things being equal, I would want the Reds (Moose, Castellanos & Miley) guys over the Brewers (Sogard/Gyorko, Garcia & Anderson) guys. However, when looking at the dollars and years, it does appear the Brewers could be getting the better end of the deals.

Well said. Obviously nobody knows how things are going to play out but they have done what it takes to put themselves in a good spot. The lineup should rake in that park and they have a very nice rotation along with solid closer. Cardinals lineup appears to be weaker and Cubs have done nothing and lost their manager. In my opinion Brewers with just a slight uptick in investment would have been the clear favorites. I respect Counsell and what he can do but a few additional horses would have been huge.

There still is a significant chance the Brewers will have a decent uptick in investment before the trade deadline once the dust has settled and he sees which players haven't panned out like anticipated. Too many fans wan to spend their entire wad during the offseason because by doing so they can fit more big name players in their mock offseason projections. But in reality you cannot bank on any signing to produce like they have in the past due to freak injuries, slumps or regression. Hence why the smart move is to allow for some in season financial flexibility for making necessary adjustments on the fly.

[owbc]

The Reds will probably be very good in 2020 but they do not have the budget to sustain this over the long haul. From the Brewers' perspective this is very good, less competition for 2021 and 2022 free agents. Maybe it works out and the Reds have a deep postseason run this year before their aging/expensive roster needs to be blown up. But this would be far from the first time that a team with a brief window and a ton of attention/pressure to win comes up short. It will be fascinating to watch it play out.

 

They might actually. They just inked a new tv deal. It's fairly refreshing to see a team ink a new tv deal or bring in a source of revenue, and immediately make it noticed on the MLB payroll. I'm not trying to correlate this in any way to the Brewers, it's generally nice to see though.

 

The problem is they would have to significantly increase payroll or have some major success with prospects to maintain the current level of talent, especially in 2022-2023 when Votto is still owed $25M/year. After Castellanos goes on the books they will have approximately the same dollar amount committed to 2022 as the Yankees (~$85 million).

 

The Brewers will face the same challenge with Lorenzo Cain in 2021 and 2022 if he can not produce enough to be an everyday player. Additional money will have to be spent on top of the highest salary on the team to fill space in CF.

[Ennder]

How many wins do people think Castellanos and Moustakas are worth over what the Reds put on the field last year assuming they are both healthy and productive? I think some posters are going to give a number that is at least double what the reality is if not triple. I think that is the core of how different people think about these moves.

[sveumrules]

How many wins do people think Castellanos and Moustakas are worth over what the Reds put on the field last year assuming they are both healthy and productive? I think some posters are going to give a number that is at least double what the reality is if not triple. I think that is the core of how different people think about these moves.

 

According to FanGraphs the Reds got 0.5 WAR out of 2B/LF combined in 2019.

 

Nick & Moose combined for 5.6 fWAR/5.9 bWAR in 2019.

 

So the Reds likely have added about 5-6 wins for 32 million bucks in 2020.

[Ennder]

How many wins do people think Castellanos and Moustakas are worth over what the Reds put on the field last year assuming they are both healthy and productive? I think some posters are going to give a number that is at least double what the reality is if not triple. I think that is the core of how different people think about these moves.

 

According to FanGraphs the Reds got 0.5 WAR out of 2B/LF combined in 2019.

 

Nick & Moose combined for 5.6 fWAR/5.9 bWAR in 2019.

 

So the Reds likely have added about 5-6 wins for 32 million bucks in 2020.

 

Fair enough, I was wrong here. I didn't realize just how much their scrub backups dragged down Winker and Diedrich who both had positive seasons. I had only looked at the ZiPs projections for what was replaced so I was not expecting them to be so poor last year at those spots. I was expecting it to be more like 2-3 WAR. Some people seem to think it is more like 8 or 9 from what I can tell.

[TJseven7]

I'd rather pay 10 mil for a RF/LF who can OPS over 800 than 16 mil for a DH who can OPS over 850.

 

The comp pick part of this is the only impressive part for the Reds. If they can get him to opt out after a 16/1 and then get a comp pick for him leaving, that's some savvy stuff right there.

[tmwiese55]

When did depth not count on paper? I get what you're saying in the sense that if all the starters on the team stay healthy theirs may very well be the best. But the odds of going through a season with only five starters are negligible. That makes the depth more than just an afterthought. It will play a significant role as it does every season.

I think the best thing Stearns did this off season was avoid making a big splash on one player and chose to add overall depth instead.

 

You said it right there. If everyone stays healthy, that's the on paper along with just what they could/should do. You can't plan for Shaw/Jesus type things to happen. And for the depth, like I said, you can say the same thing about everyone. If their 5-8 guys were proven or good they wouldn't be their 5-8 guys.

 

That is more than a big if. It's a nearly impossible one. Has any staff every had just five pitchers start all season? Furthermore how often does every pitcher on a staff pitch to their potential? I'm not sure what on paper means to you but for me it includes more than just the starters.

That's where quality of depth comes in. I'd rather have five average guys and have 3 more almost as good ready to go than 5 really good ones and nobody behind them.

I think the chances of having a decent staff is better with 8 guys who have to potential to be league average or slightly better than four guys who are well above average but nothing behind them that could get near average on their best year.

--

 

 

Sure. But again, this is why I said the 5-8 thing your concerned with applies to everyone, not just them. So, on paper, it's hard not to see they have the advantage. Their top 4 clearly trumps everyone else. Then the 5-8 range is a crapshoot, just like everyone else. So 5-8 is a wash combined with clear advantage in the top 4. For example, are we going to sit here and say that our Burnes and Peralta depth guys is some clear advantage? We have no idea how they're going to do and they flopped last year.

[KeithStone53151]

I'd rather pay 10 mil for a RF/LF who can OPS over 800 than 16 mil for a DH who can OPS over 850.

 

The comp pick part of this is the only impressive part for the Reds. If they can get him to opt out after a 16/1 and then get a comp pick for him leaving, that's some savvy stuff right there.

 

Yeah that's the only way they get good value for him...but then it's still annoying that he had a monster year and opted out. Though it would have to be a truly monster year, because he very well knows a comp pick would be coming his way if he opted out...and we've seen what those do to a players value.

[TJseven7]

I'd rather pay 10 mil for a RF/LF who can OPS over 800 than 16 mil for a DH who can OPS over 850.

 

The comp pick part of this is the only impressive part for the Reds. If they can get him to opt out after a 16/1 and then get a comp pick for him leaving, that's some savvy stuff right there.

 

Yeah that's the only way they get good value for him...but then it's still annoying that he had a monster year and opted out. Though it would have to be a truly monster year, because he very well knows a comp pick would be coming his way if he opted out...and we've seen what those do to a players value.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if the PA wanted that wrote out of the rules in the new CBA. Teams who lose that player gain a pick, teams who sign them don't lose one.

[Eye Black]

Very early returns would suggest that Castellanos may very well be opting out of the remaining 3 years and $48 million on his contract after this season with the Reds. I wouldn’t be shocked if he found his way back to the Cubs, unfortunately. Again, I know it’s way too early to know for sure, but at just 28 years old I think he could be a candidate to get a longer and more lucrative contract if he chooses to test the FA waters once again.

 

Especially with Mookie Betts off the market, he would seemingly be the best combination of relatively young and productive among corner outfielders. George Springer would also be on the market, but is 2.5 years older and has a more recent injury history. Joc Pederson will also be on the FA market, but is more of a platoon OF option. Michael Brantley is the other big name corner OF, but will be entering his age-34 season next year and may be better suited as a DH in coming years.

[SRB]

Very early returns would suggest that Castellanos may very well be opting out of the remaining 3 years and $48 million on his contract after this season with the Reds. I wouldn’t be shocked if he found his way back to the Cubs, unfortunately. Again, I know it’s way too early to know for sure, but at just 28 years old I think he could be a candidate to get a longer and more lucrative contract if he chooses to test the FA waters once again.

 

Especially with Mookie Betts off the market, he would seemingly be the best combination of relatively young and productive among corner outfielders. George Springer would also be on the market, but is 2.5 years older and has a more recent injury history. Joc Pederson will also be on the FA market, but is more of a platoon OF option. Michael Brantley is the other big name corner OF, but will be entering his age-34 season next year and may be better suited as a DH in coming years.

 

Big boost for Castellanos's market if the NL permanently adds the DH too.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Very early returns would suggest that Castellanos may very well be opting out of the remaining 3 years and $48 million on his contract after this season with the Reds. I wouldn’t be shocked if he found his way back to the Cubs, unfortunately. Again, I know it’s way too early to know for sure, but at just 28 years old I think he could be a candidate to get a longer and more lucrative contract if he chooses to test the FA waters once again.

 

Especially with Mookie Betts off the market, he would seemingly be the best combination of relatively young and productive among corner outfielders. George Springer would also be on the market, but is 2.5 years older and has a more recent injury history. Joc Pederson will also be on the FA market, but is more of a platoon OF option. Michael Brantley is the other big name corner OF, but will be entering his age-34 season next year and may be better suited as a DH in coming years.

 

Big boost for Castellanos's market if the NL permanently adds the DH too.

 

I don't know if that would even matter at this point. If he puts up MVP-type numbers this year, after going so with the Cubs last year, I highly doubt an NL team wouldn't be willing to put up with his below average glove in the corner OF, or even corner IF, to get his bat in the lineup.

[MrTPlush]

Very early returns would suggest that Castellanos may very well be opting out of the remaining 3 years and $48 million on his contract after this season with the Reds. I wouldn’t be shocked if he found his way back to the Cubs, unfortunately. Again, I know it’s way too early to know for sure, but at just 28 years old I think he could be a candidate to get a longer and more lucrative contract if he chooses to test the FA waters once again.

 

Especially with Mookie Betts off the market, he would seemingly be the best combination of relatively young and productive among corner outfielders. George Springer would also be on the market, but is 2.5 years older and has a more recent injury history. Joc Pederson will also be on the FA market, but is more of a platoon OF option. Michael Brantley is the other big name corner OF, but will be entering his age-34 season next year and may be better suited as a DH in coming years.

 

Big boost for Castellanos's market if the NL permanently adds the DH too.

 

I don't know if that would even matter at this point. If he puts up MVP-type numbers this year, after going so with the Cubs last year, I highly doubt an NL team wouldn't be willing to put up with his below average glove in the corner OF, or even corner IF, to get his glove in the lineup.

 

NL teams would definitely be more willing to go longer term with him and less worried about how his defense ages. It would certainly help him out, but his MVP-like track record will still be pretty small (less than a years worth of PAs).

[CheezWizHed]

With Braun coming off the books (probably), how likely might we dabble there? Not sure what $$ we are talking about, but...

 

Side note... Michael Brantley is only 33???

[RollieTime]

Really hope we dabble here next offseason. He will still only be turning 29 right before the 2021 season. I think he will certainly be asking for $100+ million over 5+ years. I would certainly entertain it as we still need to pair another all-star caliber bat in the middle of the lineup with Yelich and the time to do that is now with Yelich in his prime.

 

A core of Urias, Hiura, Yelich, and Castellanos for 5 years would certainly be a strong core to build around. Mix in guys like Narvaez, Cain, Garcia, or maybe even a return of Braun on a 1 year deal and you are looking at a pretty solid lineup.

 

Brantley is a guy I advocated signing a couple offseasons ago. He could be one of those sneaky good offseason moves next offseason for whoever signs him.

[djoctagone]

nick castellanos has opted out of $34mm left on his contract. he is now a free agent.