Castellanos to Reds 4 years 16M a year?

[JohnBriggs12]

I mean projection systems still don't have them as a clear favorite so I think that is projecting a little extra on them. They are right in the same range as everyone else now. Making up 15 games in the standings takes a lot more than people realize.

 

They have added more than enough firepower to make up 15 games. The middle of their order is the best in the division and on paper their rotation is the equal of Cardinals for the best They're clearly the favorite. They don't have 15 games to make up. They start 0-0 like everybody else.

[brewcrewdue80]

[

 

yes, I was getting my dates confused. You appear to be correct. That could potentially hurt his bargaining power next year, unless there is some sort of wink-nod agreement in place that they won't make the qualifying offer.

 

No problem.

 

1 other item of note from the current CBA: teams/ players are unable to make pre-arranged agreements to withhold placing of a QO or agreeing to decline the QO (unlike the previous arbitration-offering system). IIRC penalties include agent suspension, loss of draft pick & signing pool money as well as a player punishment (unsure of it)..

 

Is it prearranged though? I just came up with the thought that for Cincy they could have structured a deal offer to fit this plan ahead. It didn't have to be agreed on by Castellanos or even if Castellanos is told this idea/plan. It's something to put in their backpocket. maybe Castellanos had a bigger ask to this 4/64 and that GM wasn't going there and here's where the idea comes up. Write up the offer and Castellanos' side accepted. The ability to stomach the contract. He's all bat and no fielding. Aging where his fielding is only going to get worse. Castellanos made the most sense for an AL team. He basically got 10games a season with Detroit to do so. Games to rest his body not fielding. Cincy won't have that but the interleague games or which may not be the time Castellanos needs the DH for his body.

[owbc]

The Reds will probably be very good in 2020 but they do not have the budget to sustain this over the long haul. From the Brewers' perspective this is very good, less competition for 2021 and 2022 free agents. Maybe it works out and the Reds have a deep postseason run this year before their aging/expensive roster needs to be blown up. But this would be far from the first time that a team with a brief window and a ton of attention/pressure to win comes up short. It will be fascinating to watch it play out.

[MrTPlush]

Castellanos can never be offered a QO again...unless they change it in a future CBA, but that won't happen.

[brewcrewdue80]

I mean projection systems still don't have them as a clear favorite so I think that is projecting a little extra on them. They are right in the same range as everyone else now. Making up 15 games in the standings takes a lot more than people realize.

 

They have added more than enough firepower to make up 15 games. The middle of their order is the best in the division and on paper their rotation is the equal of Cardinals for the best They're clearly the favorite. They don't have 15 games to make up. They start 0-0 like everybody else.

 

How is their rotation up for the best in the Central? That's a lot of confidence in Miley, Gray, and Bauer. I don't even know who there 5th is do you? I do think Castillo can maintain his level but, otherwise it's filled with a bunch of guys that are every bit 4.5 ERA prone as they are to be 3.7ERA prone or better.

[sveumrules]

They're clearly the favorite. They don't have 15 games to make up. They start 0-0 like everybody else.

 

The depth charts at FanGraphs have the following projected 2020 WARs for NL Central contenders...

 

CHI 40.6

MIL 36.7

STL 35.7

CIN 33.1

 

ZIPS has the following projected 2020 WARs for NL Central contenders (Cubs not released yet)...

 

MKE 38.1 WAR

STL 35.9 WAR

CIN 35.6 WAR

 

VegasInsider has the 2020 over under win totals for NLC contenders at...

 

STL 88.5

CHI 84.5

CIN 83.5

MKE 82.5

 

There is no clear favorite in the NL Central at the moment. The only NL division that has a clear favorite is the NL West. Any of four teams could conceivably win either of the East or Central.

 

I'd guess when 538 & similar sites start releasing their preseason playoff odds that PIT will be <1% & each of the other four NLC teams will be somewhere between 20%-30% to win the division.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Castellanos can never be offered a QO again...unless they change it in a future CBA, but that won't happen.

 

I don't think he ever was offered one.

[brewcrewdue80]

Castellanos can never be offered a QO again...unless they change it in a future CBA, but that won't happen.

 

He hasn't been offered the QO the first time. He didn't qualify last season due to being traded to the Cubs mid-season.

[MrTPlush]

Castellanos can never be offered a QO again...unless they change it in a future CBA, but that won't happen.

 

He hasn't been offered the QO the first time. He didn't qualify last season due to being traded to the Cubs mid-season.

 

I see, my confusion as I figured he had with all the dialogue in the thread pertaining to his eligibility. Pretty straightforward then that he can still be offered one.

[tmwiese55]

I mean projection systems still don't have them as a clear favorite so I think that is projecting a little extra on them. They are right in the same range as everyone else now. Making up 15 games in the standings takes a lot more than people realize.

 

They have added more than enough firepower to make up 15 games. The middle of their order is the best in the division and on paper their rotation is the equal of Cardinals for the best They're clearly the favorite. They don't have 15 games to make up. They start 0-0 like everybody else.

 

How is their rotation up for the best in the Central? That's a lot of confidence in Miley, Gray, and Bauer. I don't even know who there 5th is do you? I do think Castillo can maintain his level but, otherwise it's filled with a bunch of guys that are every bit 4.5 ERA prone as they are to be 3.7ERA prone or better.

 

And how is that still not better than everyone else's? You can rip on their's but then go look at the other teams SPs and I don't think it's debatable that on paper theirs is the best. You can easily argue they're lacking depth in the 5-8 area (where MKE has shown the last few years you can cheaply make up some value as everyone will need extra starters) but the on paper discussion right now is clearly in their favor. And you can probably say the same depth issue for every team as no one in those areas is 'proven' or else they wouldn't be depth guys.

[adambr2]

I mean projection systems still don't have them as a clear favorite so I think that is projecting a little extra on them. They are right in the same range as everyone else now. Making up 15 games in the standings takes a lot more than people realize.

 

They have added more than enough firepower to make up 15 games. The middle of their order is the best in the division and on paper their rotation is the equal of Cardinals for the best They're clearly the favorite. They don't have 15 games to make up. They start 0-0 like everybody else.

 

Again, Castellanos has a career 113 OPS+. Moustakas, 101+. You'd think they signed Rendon and traded for Mookie Betts by how the Reds are being talked about. It was not an offseason contest to see who could spend the most money.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Wouldn't surprise me if they wind up at/near the top of the division standings. Also wouldn't surprise me if Miley and Bauer get into a spring training fight over Astros-related sign stealing and spin rates and they open the season with two of their "on paper" rotation anchors on the disabled list and the whole thing implodes before Reds' management even has a chance to see if it works out.

 

A post was made earlier in this thread that I really agree with - the time is about up for the Reds' current baseball ops staff to put up a successful MLB season and make the playoffs. Seems like alot of these moves were made with that in mind trying to throw together a "go for it" year at the MLB level before the overall organization is ready to take make that jump and potentially preserve their own jobs beyond 2020. More often than not, teams that try to chase wins in free agency without a really good foundation in place wind up leaving a gap in their roster construction that becomes a fatal flaw of the team - in the Reds' case it's probably two-fold: team defense and bullpen. If they don't absolutely mash, they're going to disappoint.

[KeithStone53151]

This signing pretty much cements the Cubs as 4th place finishers in the NL Central. It was probably going to happen even before this signing, but now you can take it to the bank.

[KeithStone53151]

MKE 2B: Hiura (115)

CIN 2B: Moose (118)

 

I understand you're just quoting projections, but if someone let me bet on whether Hiura would outproduce Moose at the plate this year...I'd go get a home equity loan today.

[KeithStone53151]

The Reds will probably be very good in 2020 but they do not have the budget to sustain this over the long haul. From the Brewers' perspective this is very good, less competition for 2021 and 2022 free agents. Maybe it works out and the Reds have a deep postseason run this year before their aging/expensive roster needs to be blown up. But this would be far from the first time that a team with a brief window and a ton of attention/pressure to win comes up short. It will be fascinating to watch it play out.

 

They might actually. They just inked a new tv deal. It's fairly refreshing to see a team ink a new tv deal or bring in a source of revenue, and immediately make it noticed on the MLB payroll. I'm not trying to correlate this in any way to the Brewers, it's generally nice to see though.

[Thurston Fluff]

And how is that still not better than everyone else's? You can rip on their's but then go look at the other teams SPs and I don't think it's debatable that on paper theirs is the best. You can easily argue they're lacking depth in the 5-8 area (where MKE has shown the last few years you can cheaply make up some value as everyone will need extra starters) but the on paper discussion right now is clearly in their favor. And you can probably say the same depth issue for every team as no one in those areas is 'proven' or else they wouldn't be depth guys.

 

When did depth not count on paper? I get what you're saying in the sense that if all the starters on the team stay healthy theirs may very well be the best. But the odds of going through a season with only five starters are negligible. That makes the depth more than just an afterthought. It will play a significant role as it does every season.

I think the best thing Stearns did this off season was avoid making a big splash on one player and chose to add overall depth instead.

[KeithStone53151]

VegasInsider has the 2020 over under win totals for NLC contenders at...

 

STL 88.5

CHI 84.5

CIN 83.5

MKE 82.5

 

Why is St Louis projected at the top of this list? And considerably higher than the other 3? I look at their roster, and it really doesn't scare me even a little bit. Lineup is meh after Goldschmidt, rotation is meh after Flaherty, bullpen is meh after Gallegos

[sveumrules]

MKE 2B: Hiura (115)

CIN 2B: Moose (118)

 

I understand you're just quoting projections, but if someone let me bet on whether Hiura would outproduce Moose at the plate this year...I'd go get a home equity loan today.

 

Yeah, that 118 kind of feels like Moose's ceiling considering he's got a career high of 119 & has been at 114, 107 & 117 over the last three years while 115 for Hiura feels closer to his floor considering his scouting reports, minor league track record & a 138 OPS+ in half a season with elite exit velocities. At the same time the 30.7 K% & .402 BABIP make him a prime regression candidate.

 

A lot more upside with Keston's projection, but a lot more certainty in Moose's.

[tmwiese55]

And how is that still not better than everyone else's? You can rip on their's but then go look at the other teams SPs and I don't think it's debatable that on paper theirs is the best. You can easily argue they're lacking depth in the 5-8 area (where MKE has shown the last few years you can cheaply make up some value as everyone will need extra starters) but the on paper discussion right now is clearly in their favor. And you can probably say the same depth issue for every team as no one in those areas is 'proven' or else they wouldn't be depth guys.

 

When did depth not count on paper? I get what you're saying in the sense that if all the starters on the team stay healthy theirs may very well be the best. But the odds of going through a season with only five starters are negligible. That makes the depth more than just an afterthought. It will play a significant role as it does every season.

I think the best thing Stearns did this off season was avoid making a big splash on one player and chose to add overall depth instead.

 

You said it right there. If everyone stays healthy, that's the on paper along with just what they could/should do. You can't plan for Shaw/Jesus type things to happen. And for the depth, like I said, you can say the same thing about everyone. If their 5-8 guys were proven or good they wouldn't be their 5-8 guys.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

This signing pretty much cements the Cubs as 4th place finishers in the NL Central. It was probably going to happen even before this signing, but now you can take it to the bank.

You’re far more certain than I would be that they’re anything but a division contender. From a WAR perspective they still have the best offense (I think they’re the only team in the division with 3 4+ win players on offense based on projections and have the most over 3). Darvish, Hendricks, Quintana, Lester and Chatwood or whoever at 5 is probably the 2nd best rotation of the 4 contending teams. The bullpen has questions marks but bullpens are so volatile year over year they’re not easy to project. I think one of the 4 contenders finishes in the 77-81 win range, two in the 84-89 range and 1 in the 90-93 win range. It likely could come down to who racks up the most wins vs the Pirates.

[Bulldogboy]

Don't let the Cards end up with Aranado. If they do drop the Brewers another notch.

[TURBO]

And they are going to have plenty of spots available on their bandwagon this year after being terrible for the last 6 years, and 16 of the last 20.

 

I don't see what this has to do with anything......at all.

 

The Reds have improved, and makes the division that much tougher to win.

[Thurston Fluff]

And how is that still not better than everyone else's? You can rip on their's but then go look at the other teams SPs and I don't think it's debatable that on paper theirs is the best. You can easily argue they're lacking depth in the 5-8 area (where MKE has shown the last few years you can cheaply make up some value as everyone will need extra starters) but the on paper discussion right now is clearly in their favor. And you can probably say the same depth issue for every team as no one in those areas is 'proven' or else they wouldn't be depth guys.

 

When did depth not count on paper? I get what you're saying in the sense that if all the starters on the team stay healthy theirs may very well be the best. But the odds of going through a season with only five starters are negligible. That makes the depth more than just an afterthought. It will play a significant role as it does every season.

I think the best thing Stearns did this off season was avoid making a big splash on one player and chose to add overall depth instead.

 

You said it right there. If everyone stays healthy, that's the on paper along with just what they could/should do. You can't plan for Shaw/Jesus type things to happen. And for the depth, like I said, you can say the same thing about everyone. If their 5-8 guys were proven or good they wouldn't be their 5-8 guys.

 

That is more than a big if. It's a nearly impossible one. Has any staff every had just five pitchers start all season? Furthermore how often does every pitcher on a staff pitch to their potential? I'm not sure what on paper means to you but for me it includes more than just the starters.

That's where quality of depth comes in. I'd rather have five average guys and have 3 more almost as good ready to go than 5 really good ones and nobody behind them.

I think the chances of having a decent staff is better with 8 guys who have to potential to be league average or slightly better than four guys who are well above average but nothing behind them that could get near average on their best year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

And they are going to have plenty of spots available on their bandwagon this year after being terrible for the last 6 years, and 16 of the last 20.

 

I don't see what this has to do with anything......at all.

 

The Reds have improved, and makes the division that much tougher to win.

 

The Reds are obviously making a last ditch (and frankly, weird) attempt at a 1-year run. This is an organization that has been run poorly the last 20 years. Simply, there are plenty of spots on the Reds bandwagon for those heaping praise on a team that's been a train wreck. A few high dollar signings isn't going to change what they are.

[Lathund]

 

"#Reds officially announce singing of OF Nicholas Castellanos to a 4-year, $64-million deal with a player option for a fifth & opt-outs after 2020 & 2021. Castellanos will make $16 MM in 2020, 2022 & 2023, $14 MM in 2021. $20 MM option in 2024 with $2 MM buyout"

 

So that's two opt outs and a player option. From a team point of view it's quite a risky structure. If he really is the player he was with the Cubs (I would prefer to look at more than just 2 months) then he's just going to opt out. Reds still get a comp pick, so in that scenario it's a 1/16m deal + comp pick which is pretty good. But that's really the best case scenario here. The opt-outs limit the upside on the deal, he won't remain a Red if he's a good player. He'll still only be 32 for that potential 5th year, but a player option at the end of a contract isn't great for a team. Someone brought up that this was Stearns-like earlier (Albeit without the player option being known at the time), but I don't really see the resemblance; Brewers haven't really used much in the way of opt-outs or player options have they? With Moose and Grandal it was essentially a forgone conclusion that they'd be declined, and just a way to defer some money.

 

But I suppose including all of that is what made the signing possible, and surely brought the AAV down some. Castellanos gets a good amount of guaranteed money, with the potential to earn more if his breakout is real. Reds get him for an amount that's alright for the ~2.5 WAR player he has been these past four years. I also expect the Reds to go back to mediocrity or worse very soon; the way they've acquired this roster (Along with the moves they made last year) makes for a very short "window" unless something unexpected happens.

 

Overall the Reds have improved from last year, for sure. But they were far behind to begin with, I don't really see them as favorites. I think a 4-way bloodbath is more likely, with the teams all clustered around 85 wins. Could be in any order. Could well be decided by who stays healthiest.