Castellanos to Reds 4 years 16M a year?

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Yeah this definitely puts the Reds in the mix. Don’t see them being prohibitively favorites though. The Cardinals clearly are taking the largest step back of the top 4 teams, IMO. Us and the Cubs are right there with the Reds for the top 3. Think the Cubs are being sold short a bit. Their whole offense is still in prime years, they project to have the most offense WAR in the division. Our offense projects about the same as the Reds based on ZIPS. Even with adding Castellanos.

 

I think Maddon moving on is pretty severely underrated. That guy, for all his quirks, was a really good manager. Ross might be fine as well, but going from Maddon to a rookie manager could very well be a massive downgrade.

I’m firmly in the camp managers really don’t matter. Especially on affecting winning, they can affect losing if they’re incompetent. The Cubs severely underperformed last year and things seemed to go sideways in the last month+ especially. They underperformed their expected win total by 7 games or so, iirc. Maybe Maddon really mattered a lot but he didn’t seem to really be making a difference for most of last year.

 

Even though they’ve done next to nothing I think the Cubs are being undersold a bit with projecting the division next year. They have the talent to be firmly in the mix. I think all of us, them, Reds and Cardinals are right there. Any of those teams winning like 77 games or 93 games wouldn’t surprise me.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Can someone remind me who is the Brewers number 2 starter?

 

Hopefully Houser. He's got a similar upside to Woodruff, and is primed to take that sort of leap.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Deal is the same at Moose's 4 years/$64 million.

 

Obviously Moose brings much better defensive value. But Castellanos has youth on his side. If I were Stearns, I would have made that deal. Oh well.

 

With an opt-out after 2020.

 

Really smart move on his part. If he hits like he did in Chicago, he'd hit the market next year as a 28-year-old.

 

Honestly, this is looking like it's likely to be a 1-year deal, as the only way I foresee him not opting out of this deal is if he's below average or he gets injured.

[Ennder]

I don't usually respond to bulldogboy because I only see his posts when people quote him but I'll bite on this one. The Reds rotation has a lot of variance to it as well. Every one of the pitchers in their rotation has had a FIP over 4 in one of the past 2 seasons. Every one of them except Miley has had an ERA+ under 100 in one of their past 2 years. That could be a very good rotation but it also could be no better than the Brewers. These guys aren't locks of any sort.

[homer]

Cool, let me borrow your crystal ball when you're done with it. I genuinely do think the Brewers have a better lineup than they did last year, and the continued freakout about the corner infield where they had two guys that made Mendoza look good for half the season is funny.

 

The SP is as good or better; their "ace" couldn't even finish out the year. They had a very high number of things go wrong and still flirted with 90 games, so no, I'm not white-flagging it for the 70-win Reds in January.

 

It has nothing to do with being "too deep in fandom to see reality."

 

It's just getting exhausting and frustrating to read the same crap in the offseason every year when the team continue to defy all the pessimism. At what point does their winning buy a little bit of trust? Evidently not after 3 years of it.

 

Would you mind using the "quote" feature when you are responding directly to another poster? As it stands, we aren't sure who you are responding to. It's in the bottom right hand corner of a post. Thanks.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Can someone remind me who is the Brewers number 2 starter?

 

Pretty much the exact same thing was posted or alluded to by quite a few posters the past 3 offseasons for the Brewers, and they managed to find ways to avoid losing 100 games.

 

Here's a link to figure it out yourself:

 

http://m.brewers.mlb.com/mil/roster/40-man/

[Jopal78]

Let's not lose sight of what is really going on here. Since Dick Williams took over as the head of Baseball Operations in Cincinnati the teams has gone 278-370. They've finished last most often and no better than fourth during his tenure. Their annual attendance has been no better than 13th out of 15th, and they've had three managers. Despite the fact his family has a minority ownership interest, he's likely fighting to save his job.

 

He's brought on a bunch of talent regardless if it all fits together because if they lose another 85 games in 2020, he likely won't be there in 2021 anyways.

[monty57]

Reds are clear favorites to win division to me. Things happen and they obviously have to do it on the field but they have the pieces. They are striking just as the Brewers and Cubs have decided to take a year off from trying to win big. Good for their fans. It feels like it's been forever since they have been good but they have such a rich history. Another mid market team investing in the product the fans pay to see. Interesting concept.

 

 

Per Cot's, this would put the Reds opening day payroll over $140M. 2019 was a record opening day payroll of $126.6, and before that, they were generally in the $90's or low $100's. After this season, Bauer ($17.5), DeSclafani ($5.975) and Galvis ($5.5) become free agents, while potentially eight players hit arby for the first time. They have four players currently in arby who would get raises. Don't know much else about their finances, or how much they can afford, but Cincinnati is around twice the size of Milwaukee.

 

I'd have to think that their spending is about done. It would seem that the Brewers, who are around $96M right now, should still be able to add another $10-15M just to get back to the $110M or so they've been around. I'd guess that it's been the extra years on older players that has hampered the Brewers' spending more than the inability to add more payroll.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think it's a waste of time explaining to anyone why you think the team is better. It's the same exercise as someone asking for your "source" on something only to give them the source and then have them explain why it's a bad source. They're not actually asking for an explanation.

 

I don't know why the payroll thing has exploded the way it has, but it's immeasurably annoying. Maybe because they have won some games recently. This obsession with it needing to rise like an index fund seems recent, like within the last year or two. It was inflated last year by two one-year contracts that were completely lucky due to the frozen FA market.

[Warning Track Power]

I think a lot of the backbiting on the Castellanos deal is due to the fact the Reds have accomplished a lot of what Brewers fans have been wanting over the past year-ish as it pertains to acquiring talent. It began with the Reds getting Derek Johnson to be the pitching coach, continued with the Reds acquiring a TOR starter in Trevor Bauer at the Trade Deadline when Brewer fans were clamoring for one, and has concluded in free agency where the Reds signed Brewer fan targets of Miley, Moustakas and Castellanos.

 

Looking at the aforementioned scenarios, the acquisition of Derek Johnson and signing of Mike Moustakas are really the only ones that I think have truly hurt the Brewers. We have bemoaned the loss of Johnson but it was more about family then anything else IIRC. I think we all would feel better about the Brewers chances by simply writing Moose at 3B then Gyorko/Sogard/whoever but at $16m per for 4 years, it's a bit much.

 

Avisail Garcia and Nick Castellanos is close to a push and for $6m per year less. Miley, while good with the Brewers in 2017, was basically scrap heap material prior to. Brett Anderson could very well match the output of Miley for $2.5m less and 1 less guaranteed year.

 

All things being equal, I would want the Reds (Moose, Castellanos & Miley) guys over the Brewers (Sogard/Gyorko, Garcia & Anderson) guys. However, when looking at the dollars and years, it does appear the Brewers could be getting the better end of the deals.

[bigredrobbo]

This Reds team's gonna win it all.

 

No, THIS Reds team's gonna win it all.

 

Beg to differ, I think this is THE year for the Reds.

 

Hey, what about those Reds, huh?

 

 

Rinse, repeat, until they actually DO something crazy like, you know, make the postseason.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So Castellanos has opt-outs after the first AND SECOND year of his deal. That is a very David Stearns-like contract. I think it's funny how the Brewers as Stearns have now become the model of how to operate a modern-day front office. It's almost as if the guy might know what he's doing.

[Bulldogboy]

I think a lot of the backbiting on the Castellanos deal is due to the fact the Reds have accomplished a lot of what Brewers fans have been wanting over the past year-ish as it pertains to acquiring talent. It began with the Reds getting Derek Johnson to be the pitching coach, continued with the Reds acquiring a TOR starter in Trevor Bauer at the Trade Deadline when Brewer fans were clamoring for one, and has concluded in free agency where the Reds signed Brewer fan targets of Miley, Moustakas and Castellanos.

 

Looking at the aforementioned scenarios, the acquisition of Derek Johnson and signing of Mike Moustakas are really the only ones that I think have truly hurt the Brewers. We have bemoaned the loss of Johnson but it was more about family then anything else IIRC. I think we all would feel better about the Brewers chances by simply writing Moose at 3B then Gyorko/Sogard/whoever but at $16m per for 4 years, it's a bit much.

 

Avisail Garcia and Nick Castellanos is close to a push and for $6m per year less. Miley, while good with the Brewers in 2017, was basically scrap heap material prior to. Brett Anderson could very well match the output of Miley for $2.5m less and 1 less guaranteed year.

 

All things being equal, I would want the Reds (Moose, Castellanos & Miley) guys over the Brewers (Sogard/Gyorko, Garcia & Anderson) guys. However, when looking at the dollars and years, it does appear the Brewers could be getting the better end of the deals.

Well said. Obviously nobody knows how things are going to play out but they have done what it takes to put themselves in a good spot. The lineup should rake in that park and they have a very nice rotation along with solid closer. Cardinals lineup appears to be weaker and Cubs have done nothing and lost their manager. In my opinion Brewers with just a slight uptick in investment would have been the clear favorites. I respect Counsell and what he can do but a few additional horses would have been huge.

[SeaBass]

MLB news: [Team X] has signed [familiar name] to Big Contract

 

Brewerfan.net: Goes insane, curses owner and management for being cheap (with level headed exceptions)

 

Rinse. Repeat.

 

Sigh.

[SeaBass]

This Reds team's gonna win it all.

 

No, THIS Reds team's gonna win it all.

 

Beg to differ, I think this is THE year for the Reds.

 

Hey, what about those Reds, huh?

 

 

Rinse, repeat, until they actually DO something crazy like, you know, make the postseason.

Ha, didn't see this post when I posted mine. Admittedly mine sat for several minutes before I posted it because I'm at work and got distracted.

 

But, as to the Reds and their expected success this season, the Phillies have been active in free agency the last couple seasons and they've gone from around a 66 win team in '17 to an 80 win team in '18 and an 81 win team in '19. The Reds increased their win total to 75 in '19 from 67 in '18. I'd expect if they make another jump they might end up around 83 to 85 wins? They could be in the vicinity of wild card contention, maybe they make a bigger jump and make the post season, but I'd bet that the increase is more moderate. Anything can happen though.

[RollieTime]

I would have done this deal and even went beyond it and made it a 5 year deal if it didn’t include an opt out just to get him locked up long term. He’s going to have a great season with the Reds as long as he remains healthy. He will get his 80 extra base hits, pop 35 homers, and hit .285 or so.

 

I guess the one good thing is that he could be on the market again next year with the next bunch of great free agents. I think this will be a one year deal for him and he will opt out and secure himself a nice 6 or 7 year deal after having another fantastic season in 2020. He will still only be 28 next offseason.

 

This was the offseason to get Castellanos at a decent price. He’s going to command quite a bit more money and additional years on a contract after the upcoming season than what he wanted this offseason in my opinion.

[sveumrules]

I trust pitching. They still don't have any.

 

Last year the Brewers had a 99 ERA- & won 89 games. The Reds had a 93 ERA- & won 75 games. The Reds ERA was 6% better, yet the Brewers won 19% more games.

 

Pitching is almost half the game, but it ain't the whole thing. Also, pitching tends to be more volatile because pitchers get hurt more, making it naturally less trustworthy as a whole.

 

Can someone remind me who is the Brewers number 2 starter?

 

Last year our #2 starter to open the season was Freddy Peralta. He ended up with 35 IP over 8 starts with a 7.07 ERA in the rotation. The Brewers still won 89 games.

 

Can you explain how the lineup is better? Urias already hurt so we may be seeing plenty of Arcia again. Not criticizing just asking how.

 

Here are the two teams position groups with their 2020 ZIPS projected OPS+...

 

MKE C: Narvaez (106) Pina (78)

CIN C: Banhart (89) Casali (77)

 

MKE 1B: Votto (114)

CIN 1B: Smoak (106)

 

MKE 2B: Hiura (115)

CIN 2B: Moose (118)

 

MKE SS: Urias (95) Arcia (75)

CIN SS: Galvis (80)

 

MKE 3B: Gyorko (98) Sogard (85)

CIN 3B: Suarez (122)

 

MKE CF: Cain (92)

CIN CF: Senzel (97) Akiyama (98)

 

MKE COF: Yelich (149) Garcia (107) Braun (106)

CIN COF: Castellanos (125) Winker (112) Aquino (96)

 

Looks like we have better projections at C & COF, while the Reds have a better projection at 3B. Most of the other spots are pretty even.

[homer]

I think this move would have made sense for the Brewers if the NL already had the DH (would have been a great move actually). But as others have said, once Garcia signed there wasn't really a place for Castellanos. He hasn't played 3rd since 2017 and wasn't good when he did play there.

[Ennder]

I just think people don't look at new players realistically. Castellanos is a nice signing for the Reds but he is replacing someone that was projected to be roughly a 2 WAR player. Mouse is a great guy to have at 2B but they got pretty much Mouses stats from Dietrich last year for half a season, extrapolate him to mouses PA and he was just as good. These are upgrades but they are 1 or 2 WAR here, 1 or 2 there. It takes a lot to get from 75 to 90 when most of your upgrades are 1 or 2 WAR. They probably downgraded at SS. It is really going to come down to which rotation the Reds get. Take the best of what this bunch has done over the past 3 years and it looks like one of the better rotation in the NL and they probably make the playoffs, take the worst they have done in the past 2 years and it is a below average rotation. What is going to show up? Probably something in between which means that mid 80s wins and pray for a little luck to get in. No way to know.

 

I will say this though. I look at that Reds team and I see a realistic path to the playoffs, that hasn't been the case for the past few years. It no longer would be a surprise if they make it. I just don't think you can just pencil them in as the favorites.

[Bulldogboy]

I trust pitching. They still don't have any.

 

Last year the Brewers had a 99 ERA- & won 89 games. The Reds had a 93 ERA- & won 75 games. The Reds ERA was 6% better, yet the Brewers won 19% more games.

 

Pitching is almost half the game, but it ain't the whole thing. Also, pitching tends to be more volatile because pitchers get hurt more, making it naturally less trustworthy as a whole.

 

Can someone remind me who is the Brewers number 2 starter?

 

Last year our #2 starter to open the season was Freddy Peralta. He ended up with 35 IP over 8 starts with a 7.07 ERA in the rotation. The Brewers still won 89 games.

 

Can you explain how the lineup is better? Urias already hurt so we may be seeing plenty of Arcia again. Not criticizing just asking how.

 

Here are the two teams position groups with their 2020 ZIPS projected OPS+...

 

MKE C: Narvaez (106) Pina (78)

CIN C: Banhart (89) Casali (77)

 

MKE 1B: Votto (114)

CIN 1B: Smoak (106)

 

MKE 2B: Hiura (115)

CIN 2B: Moose (118)

 

MKE SS: Urias (95) Arcia (75)

CIN SS: Galvis (80)

 

MKE 3B: Gyorko (98) Sogard (85)

CIN 3B: Suarez (122)

 

MKE CF: Cain (92)

CIN CF: Senzel (97) Akiyama (98)

 

MKE COF: Yelich (149) Garcia (107) Braun (106)

CIN COF: Castellanos (125) Winker (112) Aquino (96)

 

Looks like we have better projections at C & COF, while the Reds have a better projection at 3B. Most of the other spots are pretty even.

Good info. Thank you. I agree lineups look close but the rotation is where I think the reds have clear advantage. Bullpen too.

[brewcrewdue80]

Glad this saga is over.

 

To the doesnt fit on roster makeup, theres still plenty of time to make a trade for this move to fit. I seen someone mention open to trade Senzel. But how about trade Suarez for example to Dodgers for Seager and May? Now Moose plays 3rd Seager at SS and Sensel at 2b.

 

I dont think the opt outs are really going to be used. Castellanos would have to put a full season of the numbers he had for his Cubs stints. He pretty much at a high for a FA having his best season in 2018 and best half a season to end 2019. I think that part of the deal is in Cin favor so they could QO him in the instance he opted out.

The rotation has upside to be scared but downside to be a group of meh. Gray had some surgery on his elbow(not TJ) he's no guarantee for a full season. Bauer has far more seasons above 4.5ERA than he does below 4ERA. He gives up HRs at a higher rate except his 1 season below 4ERA. Nl Central isn't a place to reduce that higher level.

This looks like a case to be had to be the MN Twins of 2018/2019. Everything goes right and beyond they can be a 95win team. But when it doesn't they're below .500

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think that part of the deal is in Cin favor so they could QO him in the instance he opted out.

 

Castellanos was traded mid-way through last season, so he can't get a qualifying offer after 2020. I'm not sure what would happen if he opted out after 2021, but I don't think they could offer it then either. Could be wrong.

[MadThinker88]

I think that part of the deal is in Cin favor so they could QO him in the instance he opted out.

 

Castellanos was traded mid-way through last season, so he can't get a qualifying offer after 2020. I'm not sure what would happen if he opted out after 2021, but I don't think they could offer it then either. Could be wrong.

 

I believe you want to double check the QO rules.

ChiCubs could not offer Nick the QO because he was acquired mid-season 2019.

IF Nick stays with Cinci all 2020 & opts out for free agency after the season, YES the Reds could offer the QO.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think that part of the deal is in Cin favor so they could QO him in the instance he opted out.

 

Castellanos was traded mid-way through last season, so he can't get a qualifying offer after 2020. I'm not sure what would happen if he opted out after 2021, but I don't think they could offer it then either. Could be wrong.

 

I believe you want to double check the QO rules.

ChiCubs could not offer Nick the QO because he was acquired mid-season 2019.

IF Nick stays with Cinci all 2020 & opts out for free agency after the season, YES the Reds could offer the QO.

 

yes, I was getting my dates confused. You appear to be correct. That could potentially hurt his bargaining power next year, unless there is some sort of wink-nod agreement in place that they won't make the qualifying offer.

[MadThinker88]

Castellanos was traded mid-way through last season, so he can't get a qualifying offer after 2020. I'm not sure what would happen if he opted out after 2021, but I don't think they could offer it then either. Could be wrong.

 

I believe you want to double check the QO rules.

ChiCubs could not offer Nick the QO because he was acquired mid-season 2019.

IF Nick stays with Cinci all 2020 & opts out for free agency after the season, YES the Reds could offer the QO.

 

yes, I was getting my dates confused. You appear to be correct. That could potentially hurt his bargaining power next year, unless there is some sort of wink-nod agreement in place that they won't make the qualifying offer.

 

No problem.

 

1 other item of note from the current CBA: teams/ players are unable to make pre-arranged agreements to withhold placing of a QO or agreeing to decline the QO (unlike the previous arbitration-offering system). IIRC penalties include agent suspension, loss of draft pick & signing pool money as well as a player punishment (unsure of it)..