Matt Wise is Special?

[rluzinski]

Baseball Prospectus had this stat up today:

 Top 5 NL Pitchers, by Lowest Batting Average on Balls Put Into Play (BABIP)* Player Team BABIP Matt Wise MIL .190 Aaron Fultz PHI .212 Billy Wagner PHI .218 Tomokazu Ohka WAS .220 Chad Cordero WAS .224 * Minimum 50 innings pitched. 

He blew every other NL pitcher out of the water with the complete junk that he throws out there. Couple that with a sub 1.00 WHIP and you have to wonder if he really is THAT good.

 

Personally, I just love to watch him work. It's amazing to watch him strike major leaguers out with his little league fast ball. Does he have what it takes to stick? Will players figure out his change up? Was last year just luck?

[dadofandrew]

Wise throws a decent fastball, 87-89, but his money pitch is that change. He threw a lot more fastballs as the season wore on, to keep hitters off balance.

[brewerjamie15]

I sure as heck hope that he'll get close to the same results next year. I'd have to say that we'd have a front three to match most in the majors.

Sheets

Cap

DD

[TauPentaRei]

There should be a Matt Wise Fund set up for all the fans in the stands that get hit in the head when hitters throw their bat at that change-up and it winds up 3 rows deep.

[DougJones43]

a little off-topic here, but how does matt wise's fastball compare to trevor hoffman? i know they both have great change-ups, but if hoffman is like wise in the sense that he doesn't have a great fastball, then i really don't see any reason why they couldn't put up similar era/whip numbers.

[dadofandrew]

Hoffman used to throw a lot harder, 95+. Not sure anymore.

[Hammer]

Did everyone else miss Ohka on that list?

[ja002h]

Nice catch Hammer.

[sweepscc]

Man this is weird, I had a nightmare last night about Matt Wise. He was pitching for the Dodgers and I was sitting in the dugout with a bunch of the Dodgers looking at Wise pitch and his changeup did a looney tune's 6 o clock dip for a strike leaving everybody stunned. I remember thinking, what the @$^#@, WHAT DID WE GET FOR HIM!?! since in my nightmare world we lost him as a free agent. I swear to god this is true. What a weird dream, huh.

[clancyphile]

Matt Wise:

The next Doug Jones.

[sweepscc]

For the record, Wise scares me, because you don't know if he'll be around the strike zone or not. If he can locate his fastball, he's usually money and one of the better relievers in the game. But when he doesn't it can get ugly which we saw more and more as the year went on last year.

[JohnBriggs12]

He was outstanding for most of 2005, but started getting knocked around more just before he ended up on the DL. He blew a game against the Giants I attended in late July. That was at a time they were making headway in the wild card standings and that loss hurt. Granted that was the game of the infamous 3 ball walk to that walking machine Deivi Cruz but he got pounded too.

 

He was also bad the second half of 2004.

 

I'd like to be sure he can contribute bigger in the second half of the year. For the Brewers to contend, they need that from him.

[endaround]

Ohka's number is for WAS only. With the Brewers it was over .300.

[brewers4eric]

I had the same nightmare as sweepscc, but I was sitting in the Dodgers dugout between Tim Leary and Tyler Houston. We had traded Wise to the Dodgers for Darren Dreifort and Milton Bradley.

 

I remember the comments that Yost made about his changeup coming out of spring training in 2004. I'm still amazed by the number of batters that swung right through it in 2005. Eventually the scouting reports will catch up with him, but until then, we've got a nice bridge to Derrick Turnbow.

[danzig6767]

Hoffman used to throw a lot harder, 95+. Not sure anymore.

 

Hoffman throws his fastball 86-89 and has been in that range for the last few years,very simular to Wise.Hoffman has been effective for quite a few years without a great fastball,no reason Wise can't.

 

One thing for Hoffman though is he has incredible command of both his fastball and change.He doesn't walk hitters and still is able to rarely leave pitches in the middle of the plate.

[rousieboy]

Having Wise and that change up in front of Turnbow and that heater is unfair...and I like things that are unfair. If Capellan is the 7th inning guy in front of Wise then that could add to the disparity...I love it.

rousieboy

[clancyphile]

Doesn't Wise have a curve ball that he has been using a little this past season?

[BrewCrewForever]

My hope is that Capellan can be the man in the 7th. He is gonna get the chance, hopefully he runs with it. The combo of Capellan, Wise, Turnbow could be great.

[Oldcity]

After thinking about it, I think it would be best if Capellan could take the 8th with Wise in the 7th. That way guys who bat in the seventh are likely to have their next at-bat off Turnbow in the ninth, who is just about the opposite of Wise. Capellan being able to handle the 8th is a big "if," however.

[zingsheim]

I think Capellan can handle it. He didn't do great in AAA, but as the year went on he did better and did pretty decent when called up in September. I think that no matter how you put them into the 7th, 8th, 9th, Cappellan, Wise and Turnbow are going to be pretty nasty coming into close things up.

[BrewCrewForever]

Capellan, Wise, and Turnbow. Milwaukee's version of the nasty boys.

[bsglorydays]

I think Capellan can handle it. He didn't do great in AAA

 

Latin Cappy's numbers in AAA were skewed by his struggles as a starter. As a reliever, he was lights out. Still, I think he will have to work into that 8th inning role.

 

Is Wise special? My gut says no, but there are a lot of stats floating around that scream yes. Can he keep it going? Let's hope so. He sure is fun to watch pitch.

[1992casey]

rluzinski,

 

Isn't a pitcher's BABIP supposed to eventually gravitate back toward the average BABIP of the other pitchers on the staff? In other words, isn't it usually an indicator of good or bad luck?

 

Those questions asked, I have nothing against Wise. I like him and appreciate what he did this year.

[rluzinski]

Isn't a pitcher's BABIP supposed to eventually gravitate back toward the average BABIP of the other pitchers on the staff? In other words, isn't it usually an indicator of good or bad luck?

 

It's not completely random, like Voros' DIPS suggest, but extreme years tend to regress back to towards league average. The thing is, Wise's stuff is unique enough that I wonder if he can continue having crazy low BABIP. Knuckleballers tend to have low BABIP and LD% (% of BIP that characterised as line drives), and Wise is like a knuckballer without the knuckle ball. Wise's LD% in 2005 was 11.7%. An average pitcher has a LD% around 20%.

 

Let's hope 2005 wasn't a sort of aberation.

[1992casey]

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It's not completely random, like Voros' DIPS suggest, but extreme years tend to regress back to towards league average. The thing is, Wise's stuff is unique enough that I wonder if he can continue having crazy low BABIP.

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So we might be looking at a case of the dreaded 'outlier'? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I had some links on BABIP for pitchers. Danged if I can find them when I want them, though! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif