jake faria released

[JimH5]

Isn't that how you're supposed to measure a trade's success?

 

Freddy Peralta as a Brewer is the reason that the Adam Lind trade is deemed a success.

 

It works both ways.

 

Fixed that sentence for you. If the Brewers had released Peralta and he’s succeeding as a player for the Rockies - nobody here would be calling the Lind trade a success.

 

But they didn't release Peralta. They released Faria, who was a bust by every measure. And the guy they gave up in the deal scored 3 runs last night in the middle of a lineup destined for the playoffs. I think it's fine to trust the process and still recognize when a trade doesn't go well.

[areacodes]

Of course they didn’t release Peralta but the Rays did DFA Aguilar which is why I don’t feel your comparison to the Lind trade was accurate as how you were using it.

 

It truly was a nothing for nothing trade as a year later Faria and Aguilar are both not with the organization that traded for them. The fact that Aguilar is with another organization and having some modest success (.805 OPS thru only 151 ABs) doesn’t change that neither team got “nothing” from the trade. Nobody is claiming the trade went well.

 

There is no guarantee that Aguilar would even be on the team now based on his time last year nor that he’d have the modest success with us that he’s had with the Marlins.

[JimH5]

I don't think Tampa Bay's decision to retain or release Aguilar has anything to do with evaluating whether the Brewers got good value in return for him. It's pretty clear that they didn't.

 

Clearly, Aguilar was under performing as a Brewer in 2019. It's undeniable. Was that all on him, or was that an organizational failure that they couldn't unlock the potential that we now know was still within him?

 

He was dealt for a now released, sub-replacement level pitcher who may have had one of the worst 9 game careers in franchise history.

 

Maybe some of that should fall on Stearns and the coaching staff that he assembled. We all called him a genius when he picked up Aguilar off of waivers. Can't he take some of the blame when trades don't work out?

[areacodes]

I think it definitely should factor in to the type of return we got for him. Both organizations viewed him as replaceable, so obviously he didn’t have too much value. What more were you expecting for a player that put up a .694 OPS over half a season? Yes he was coming off of a really good year (and a very nice two year run overall) but he didn’t have a long track record of success so he wasn’t bringing back something you should expect to be of great value (and it wasn’t).

 

It was a trade of two players that each organization could no longer use at that time and both are now gone from their respective teams. Aguilar did more in Tampa than Faria did in Milwaukee but what he is doing this year with a different organization should have little impact on how that trade is perceived. Both teams essentially got very little out of the trade and each will get nothing going forward - that is how the trade should be judged as essentially nothing for nothing.

 

Regarding his “unlocked potential” that the Brewers failed to unlock (did Tampa also fail to unlock it or does that not matter?), he now has an .817 OPS (baseball-reference didn’t have it updated when I looked earlier) thru essentially a quarter of a regular season... not sure that is an “organizational failure... (to) unlock the potential that we now know was still within him?” when talking about a 1B.

[PeaveyFury]

We ARE talking about the Jesus Aguilar that has been basically at replacement level for the Marlins, right? Yeah, his offensive numbers have rebounded some but his defense has continued to worsen, eroding most of his offensive value.

[JimH5]

Aguilar has posted a 122 wRC+ for the 2020 Marlins. Brewers DHs have combined for a 111 wRC+ and their 1B have combined for 91 wRC+. He would have been an upgrade at either position. That Tampa Bay was a stopover point between the 2019 Brewers and the 2020 Marlins is immaterial.

 

Sure, I guess the Rays were also wrong about him, and if you want to use that as cover for the Brewers handling of Aguilar, have at it.

 

But the Brewers had him in the organization, gave him up for a below replacement guy who they just waived, and are now watching Aguilar outperform the players they acquired to fill the spot he used to occupy.

 

Even the most ardent Stearns fan would like to have that one back.

[PeaveyFury]

That Tampa Bay was a stopover point between the 2019 Brewers and the 2020 Marlins is immaterial.

 

Considering that a discussion of the trade involves the two teams actually involved in the trade, I can't see how it can possibly be considered immaterial.

 

But if your point is that the Brewers would have been better off keeping him, you're clearly right in hindsight. But based on his depressed value at the time, I think they got what they could.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I don’t think the Rays releasing Aguilar is relevant. I do think the fact that the Brewers would have almost certainly non-tendered him is. Was Faria worse than a month-plus of Aguilar? Sure. But counting this year’s production into evaluating the deal isn’t accurate not because he isn’t with the Rays but because he almost certainly wouldn’t be with the Brewers anyway.

[timpep]

So the Aguilar trade want bad because the first team to get him released him? If we release yelich tomorrow does that mean it wasn't a bad trade for Florida anymore?

[PeaveyFury]

So the Aguilar trade want bad because the first team to get him released him? If we release yelich tomorrow does that mean it wasn't a bad trade for Florida anymore?

 

Major strawman there. They released him because he didn't perform there either. Yelich already had two MVP caliber seasons for the Brewers.

 

The Aguilar trade itself was bad for both teams.

[82brewcrew82]

I don't think Tampa Bay's decision to retain or release Aguilar has anything to do with evaluating whether the Brewers got good value in return for him. It's pretty clear that they didn't.

Huh? Why the heck wouldn't that factor into the evaluation? We didn't make a trade with Marlins, we made it with Rays. And he woefully under performed with the Rays as well. I'd say we got equal value for Aguilar as both teams released the asset that obtained for the other. Simply put, garbage for garbage.

 

Clearly, Aguilar was under performing as a Brewer in 2019. It's undeniable. Was that all on him, or was that an organizational failure that they couldn't unlock the potential that we now know was still within him?

I think that is your opinion and far from the fact you are trying to frame it as. Was it an organizational success that hey "unlocked" his potential in 2018? What changed between 2018 and 2019 on the organizational side of the ledger that would make such a statement true? I would suggest nothing. What failure is put on the Rays organization, one known for unlocking hidden potential I might add, but the Marlins, who are known for the opposite, hold the key to unlocking his potential? I mean, with all his success this year he is what, a .2 WAR player. Looks to be pretty replacement level to me. I look at 2018 and see a huge outlier with regard to Aguilar. Maybe what he has been his entire career, outside of the first half of 2018, is really just who this guys is which is a barley positive WAR player capable of decent stretches of offensive performance. I'd hate to think that 177 2020 ABs is the basis for any argument that we threw away anything more than a replacement player.

 

He was dealt for a now released, sub-replacement level pitcher who may have had one of the worst 9 game careers in franchise history.

Considering Aguilar's awful performance up to the time of the trade I think it was a good job by Stearns to get anything at all for him up to and including a steaming pile of trash that Faria was.

 

Maybe some of that should fall on Stearns and the coaching staff that he assembled. We all called him a genius when he picked up Aguilar off of waivers. Can't he take some of the blame when trades don't work out?

Who is this "we" you speak of? At the time I thought they caught lightning in a bottle and figured Cinderella's carriage would turn back into a pumpkin at some point. It did and we traded that pumpkin for another pumpkin. Trades of garbage for garbage really have zero bearing on my opinion of a GM. This one is no exception. If you want to knock a GM for the result of a nothing trade, have at it.

[djoctagone]

in case you've forgotten, jake faria was dfa'd to make room for the signing of jedd gyorko. i think many would consider that an acceptable move.

[JimH5]

If I sell you a $10 trinket at a rummage sale and then you sell it for $8 to a third person who then sells it for $30, I get no solace that you also failed to get full value for the trinket. That's my point on the Rays and Aguilar. The Brewers still gave up on a guy who turned out to be worth more than they got in return. And worth more than the other guys they acquired later to fill his position.

 

Stearns' objective with the roster should be to win games and maximize the value of the roster spots. It's not about winning and losing trades. Aguilar had more to offer than the Brewers (or the Rays) got from him.

 

Maybe it's worth shrugging it off in deference to Stearns and his track record, and maybe the Brewers fell short on this one.

[82brewcrew82]

If I sell you a $10 trinket at a rummage sale and then you sell it for $8 to a third person who then sells it for $30, I get no solace that you also failed to get full value for the trinket. That's my point on the Rays and Aguilar. The Brewers still gave up on a guy who turned out to be worth more than they got in return. And worth more than the other guys they acquired later to fill his position.

 

Stearns' objective with the roster should be to win games and maximize the value of the roster spots. It's not about winning and losing trades. Aguilar had more to offer than the Brewers (or the Rays) got from him.

 

Maybe it's worth shrugging it off in deference to Stearns and his track record, and maybe the Brewers fell short on this one.

I understand the point you're trying to make. I'm saying that you are making assumptions that are wrong and stating them as fact. Aguilar never was, and never will be, a $30 trinket. Never mind the fact that no one got three times the value for Aguilar than the Brewers did. The Rays didn't trade Aguilar to the Marlins for 3x the value of Faria. The Marlins are paying 2.5M for .2 WAR. Essentially, the Marlins are paying Aguilar 4x more than he as ever made to produce .2 WAR. Maybe you view that as a good deal.

 

Aguilar is worth 3.4 career WAR (per B-Ref) with 3.2 of that coming in one year that more and more looks like a flash in the pan season. You are pointing to this season, all of 177 at bats, to prove a point that doesn't hold up. He is a .2 WAR player this year which fits nicely into his very narrow career range. When he was traded he was at -.5 WAR. Thames was his primary replacement, how on earth was Aguilar worth more than Thames? Heck Vogelbach has been worth .3 WAR in a Brewer uniform so the notion that the replacements haven't been on Aguilars level this year is just wrong.

 

Sure, Smoak was a train wreck but I'd have bet on Smoak over Aguilar coming into the season and it wouldn't have been much of a choice.

[JimH5]

I'm not sure what opinions you think I'm stating as fact...I think I'm just looking at the performance of Aguilar, Faria, and the cast of Brewers who have played 1B and DH this year and suggesting that it wasn't a garbage for garbage trade with no winner and no loser.

 

Yes, I'm doing it with the luxury of hindsight-'something nobody has when trades are made, but something that is often used to praise Stearns when a trade or player acquisition goes in the Brewers favor. Fans give him credit and praise for signing someone like Junior Guerra, but he suffers no criticism for signing someone like Josh Lindblom.

 

Aguilar is better as a 2020 Marlin than he was as a 2019 Brewer, and Faria is worse as a 2020 unemployed guy than he was as a 2019 Ray. I'm wondering if there is something in the Brewers organization that affected the performance paths of those two guys.

 

Aguilar performed well with Darnell Coles as hitting coach and poorly with Andy Haines as hitting coach, and now is better with the Marlins coaching staff. Is that the difference? I don't know. Maybe. What does it mean when we use a cliche like a guy "needed a change of scenery"? Jesus Aguilar seems to have benefitted from one, and Jake Faria didn't. Maybe it's just a function of a small sample size, as some have suggested, or maybe it's something else.

 

One thing that is undeniable, though, and not speculating, or opinion, or questioning is that Aguilar is employed and productive as a major leaguer and Faria is not. That Aguilar isn't doing it for the Rays doesn't seem significant to me.

[areacodes]

But it was a nothing for nothing trade for the two teams involved. The Brewers and the Rays have nothing to show for the trade just a year later and it’s not like Aguilar or Faria made an impact on either team last year either. Aguilar, when account for the fact that he would have likely been non-tendered after last year and wouldn’t have been Brewers property, doing “well” this year has little impact on how we should judge the Brewers/Rays trade. In fact holding up his current “success” as you did, to the tune of .1 WAR right now, as an organizational failure on the Brewers seems misguided to me.

 

I don’t see anybody praising this trade or calling it a success for Stearns. You seem to want to view it as a negative for him while most are saying it was neutral as they didn’t give up much and the got back pretty much nothing in return - thats it.

[sveumrules]

I was going to wait until the end of the season to put this together, but it seems to fit in with the discussion ongoing here...

 

The Could Have Been 2020 Brewers:

 

C: Grandal (1.1 WAR) Maldonado (0.7 WAR)

1B/DH: Cooper (0.6 WAR) Aguilar (0.3 WAR) Choi (0.3 WAR)

IF: Schoop (1.4 WAR), Segura (1.0 WAR), Miller (0.8 WAR), Moose (0.2 WAR)

OF: Grisham (2.0 WAR), Brantley (1.0 WAR), Dubon (0.5 WAR), Brinson (0.3 WAR)

Total CHB Position Player WAR: 10.2

Actual 2020 Brewers PP WAR: 4.5

 

SP: Davies (1.7 WAR), Greinke (1.3 WAR), Ponce (0.5 WAR), Fiers (0.5 WAR), Lopez (0.3 WAR), Gio (0.2 WAR)

Total CHB Starting Pitcher WAR: 4.5

Actual 2020 Brewers SP WAR: 4.6

 

RP: Pomeranz (1.4 WAR), JJ (1.2 WAR), Thielbar (0.6 WAR), Kintzler (0.6 WAR), Webb (0.4 WAR), Guerra (0.4 WAR), Soria (0.4 WAR)

Total CHB Relief Pitcher WAR: 5.0

Actual 2020 Brewers RP WAR: 2.5

 

The Could Have Been 2020 Brewers would rank 4th in MLB by both position player & pitching WAR.

[moofis]

I was going to wait until the end of the season to put this together, but it seems to fit in with the discussion ongoing here...

 

The Could Have Been 2020 Brewers:

 

C: Grandal (1.1 WAR) Maldonado (0.7 WAR)

1B/DH: Cooper (0.6 WAR) Aguilar (0.3 WAR) Choi (0.3 WAR)

IF: Schoop (1.4 WAR), Segura (1.0 WAR), Miller (0.8 WAR), Moose (0.2 WAR)

OF: Grisham (2.0 WAR), Brantley (1.0 WAR), Dubon (0.5 WAR), Brinson (0.3 WAR)

Total CHB Position Player WAR: 10.2

Actual 2020 Brewers PP WAR: 4.5

 

SP: Davies (1.7 WAR), Greinke (1.3 WAR), Ponce (0.5 WAR), Fiers (0.5 WAR), Lopez (0.3 WAR), Gio (0.2 WAR)

Total CHB Starting Pitcher WAR: 4.5

Actual 2020 Brewers SP WAR: 4.6

 

RP: Pomeranz (1.4 WAR), JJ (1.2 WAR), Thielbar (0.6 WAR), Kintzler (0.6 WAR), Webb (0.4 WAR), Guerra (0.4 WAR), Soria (0.4 WAR)

Total CHB Relief Pitcher WAR: 5.0

Actual 2020 Brewers RP WAR: 2.5

 

The Could Have Been 2020 Brewers would rank 4th in MLB by both position player & pitching WAR.

 

This is definitely interesting (and somewhat depressing), but there are some guys that aren't on here that would make this list slightly less depressing. For example, guys like Anderson, Lyles, Shaw, Thames, Miley, Villar, Barnes, Williams, Santana, Phillips, Yamamoto... all have negative 2020 WARs. I do get the point you're making though, I just think it's worth mentioning that a lot of the guys the Brewers let go or traded (some of whom several posters were very upset with losing) have been duds for their new teams.

[DrugBust]

I was going to wait until the end of the season to put this together, but it seems to fit in with the discussion ongoing here...

 

The Could Have Been 2020 Brewers:

 

C: Grandal (1.1 WAR) Maldonado (0.7 WAR)

1B/DH: Cooper (0.6 WAR) Aguilar (0.3 WAR) Choi (0.3 WAR)

IF: Schoop (1.4 WAR), Segura (1.0 WAR), Miller (0.8 WAR), Moose (0.2 WAR)

OF: Grisham (2.0 WAR), Brantley (1.0 WAR), Dubon (0.5 WAR), Brinson (0.3 WAR)

Total CHB Position Player WAR: 10.2

Actual 2020 Brewers PP WAR: 4.5

 

SP: Davies (1.7 WAR), Greinke (1.3 WAR), Ponce (0.5 WAR), Fiers (0.5 WAR), Lopez (0.3 WAR), Gio (0.2 WAR)

Total CHB Starting Pitcher WAR: 4.5

Actual 2020 Brewers SP WAR: 4.6

 

RP: Pomeranz (1.4 WAR), JJ (1.2 WAR), Thielbar (0.6 WAR), Kintzler (0.6 WAR), Webb (0.4 WAR), Guerra (0.4 WAR), Soria (0.4 WAR)

Total CHB Relief Pitcher WAR: 5.0

Actual 2020 Brewers RP WAR: 2.5

 

The Could Have Been 2020 Brewers would rank 4th in MLB by both position player & pitching WAR.

 

How much does that roster cost?

[trwi7]

I was going to wait until the end of the season to put this together, but it seems to fit in with the discussion ongoing here...

 

The Could Have Been 2020 Brewers:

 

C: Grandal (1.1 WAR) Maldonado (0.7 WAR)

1B/DH: Cooper (0.6 WAR) Aguilar (0.3 WAR) Choi (0.3 WAR)

IF: Schoop (1.4 WAR), Segura (1.0 WAR), Miller (0.8 WAR), Moose (0.2 WAR)

OF: Grisham (2.0 WAR), Brantley (1.0 WAR), Dubon (0.5 WAR), Brinson (0.3 WAR)

Total CHB Position Player WAR: 10.2

Actual 2020 Brewers PP WAR: 4.5

 

SP: Davies (1.7 WAR), Greinke (1.3 WAR), Ponce (0.5 WAR), Fiers (0.5 WAR), Lopez (0.3 WAR), Gio (0.2 WAR)

Total CHB Starting Pitcher WAR: 4.5

Actual 2020 Brewers SP WAR: 4.6

 

RP: Pomeranz (1.4 WAR), JJ (1.2 WAR), Thielbar (0.6 WAR), Kintzler (0.6 WAR), Webb (0.4 WAR), Guerra (0.4 WAR), Soria (0.4 WAR)

Total CHB Relief Pitcher WAR: 5.0

Actual 2020 Brewers RP WAR: 2.5

 

The Could Have Been 2020 Brewers would rank 4th in MLB by both position player & pitching WAR.

 

How much does that roster cost?

 

Figure it out yourself, Andy.

[adambr2]

Aguilar has been decent for the Marlins, not great. It isn't like we are missing out on Freddie Freeman.

 

Vogelbach has been quite good for us and we obviously wouldn't have signed him otherwise so it's not really any loss.

[82brewcrew82]

I'm not sure what opinions you think I'm stating as fact...I think I'm just looking at the performance of Aguilar, Faria, and the cast of Brewers who have played 1B and DH this year and suggesting that it wasn't a garbage for garbage trade with no winner and no loser.

Well, for starters, insisting that there is some mystical unlocked potential in Aguilar when his statistical history more than suggests there is isn't. Stating repeatedly that the replacements weren't on par or better than Aguilar when statistical evidence says they were. Stating that someone got three times the value for Aguilar which is patently false and statistically proven to be the opposite case. All of which adds up to at trade with zero significant impact for either organization which is probably the definition of a nothing for nothing trade with no winner and no loser.

 

Yes, I'm doing it with the luxury of hindsight-'something nobody has when trades are made, but something that is often used to praise Stearns when a trade or player acquisition goes in the Brewers favor. Fans give him credit and praise for signing someone like Junior Guerra, but he suffers no criticism for signing someone like Josh Lindblom.

Just not true. I'm as big a Stearns fan as there is but there were several deals this winter that I more than raised an eyebrow at and one was Lindbloom. Stearns isn't perfect but perfection isn't the standard I grade him against.

 

Aguilar is better as a 2020 Marlin than he was as a 2019 Brewer, and Faria is worse as a 2020 unemployed guy than he was as a 2019 Ray. I'm wondering if there is something in the Brewers organization that affected the performance paths of those two guys.

Like what? Is it the same something that took Yelich from a marginal All-Star to an MVP caliber player? Is it the same something that have brought Woodruff and Burnes to TOR levels? Maybe the players lacked the dedication and commitment to achieve at the highest levels? Maybe after getting traded/released by three teams with relatively little major league success, Aguilar decided to finally commit to his craft with the Marlins? Do you have information that would suggest any one of these scenarios is more likely than the others? Your stance just seem like a very narrow interpretation with a focused agenda.

 

Aguilar performed well with Darnell Coles as hitting coach and poorly with Andy Haines as hitting coach, and now is better with the Marlins coaching staff. Is that the difference? I don't know. Maybe. What does it mean when we use a cliche like a guy "needed a change of scenery"? Jesus Aguilar seems to have benefitted from one, and Jake Faria didn't. Maybe it's just a function of a small sample size, as some have suggested, or maybe it's something else.

Or maybe Aguilar and Faria are just guys that bounce around and fill roster spots at the margins of big league rosters and sometimes have good stretches. This reminds me of the crowd last year that wanted Domingo Santana back because he got off to a good start and had a good stretch with the Brewers prior to that. Was Darnell Coles unable to unlock his hidden potential? Is there a single organization in baseball that hasn't sold low on a player that had marginal success down the road with another organization. I would suggest no. So if that is related to organizational failure, then organizational failure is a systemic issue in MLB.

 

One thing that is undeniable, though, and not speculating, or opinion, or questioning is that Aguilar is employed and productive as a major leaguer and Faria is not. That Aguilar isn't doing it for the Rays doesn't seem significant to me.

If replacement level is productive then I guess so. Aguilar is the definition of a guy that can be easily replaced with little to no impact to your team. Same with Faria. Neither is a guy that puts your team over the top and the fact that neither is with the team they were traded to says everything about their value. These kinds of trades are mad virtually every year by every team with little or no long term ramifications. If you need to call that a loss for Stearns or a failure of the coaching staff, fine. Whatever makes you happy.

[StearnsFTW]

If I sell you a $10 trinket at a rummage sale and then you sell it for $8 to a third person who then sells it for $30, I get no solace that you also failed to get full value for the trinket. That's my point on the Rays and Aguilar. The Brewers still gave up on a guy who turned out to be worth more than they got in return. And worth more than the other guys they acquired later to fill his position.

 

Stearns' objective with the roster should be to win games and maximize the value of the roster spots. It's not about winning and losing trades. Aguilar had more to offer than the Brewers (or the Rays) got from him.

 

Maybe it's worth shrugging it off in deference to Stearns and his track record, and maybe the Brewers fell short on this one.

 

I think the part you're missing is that Stearns likely thought the Brewers could do a lot better than Aguilar for his cost. He was wrong (kinda). I mean Gyorko is far better than Aguilar, so it the Brewers don't deal Aguilar, they don't have Gyorko, and are therefore worse. So Stearns wins another trade.

[adambr2]

If I sell you a $10 trinket at a rummage sale and then you sell it for $8 to a third person who then sells it for $30, I get no solace that you also failed to get full value for the trinket. That's my point on the Rays and Aguilar. The Brewers still gave up on a guy who turned out to be worth more than they got in return. And worth more than the other guys they acquired later to fill his position.

 

Stearns' objective with the roster should be to win games and maximize the value of the roster spots. It's not about winning and losing trades. Aguilar had more to offer than the Brewers (or the Rays) got from him.

 

Maybe it's worth shrugging it off in deference to Stearns and his track record, and maybe the Brewers fell short on this one.

 

I think the part you're missing is that Stearns likely thought the Brewers could do a lot better than Aguilar for his cost. He was wrong (kinda). I mean Gyorko is far better than Aguilar, so it the Brewers don't deal Aguilar, they don't have Gyorko, and are therefore worse. So Stearns wins another trade.

 

Not sure why keeping Aguilar would have prevented us from signing Gyorko. Signing Smoak didn't prevent us from signing Gyorko, and Gyorko is far more versatile than Smoak. Gyorko wasn't signed to be the primary 1B this year. It just worked out that way from lack of other options.

[MrTPlush]

With all the arguing I was expecting to see Jesus Aguilar had a 1.000 OPS or something. Instead I found a guy barely floating around an .800 OPS for a first baseman with poor defense. What exactly is the ruckus for, that is hardly some huge loss. Our current 1B has an OPS in the mid .900 range.