Twins Sign Donaldson - Four Year/$92 Million

[clancyphile]

Gyroko and Sogard are not needle movers, now or in the future. Donaldson would be a needle mover now, which is what we needed to help support our Yelich years.

 

Signing guys like Sogard, Gyroko, Smoak, Morrison, etc are not proving to me that winning the World Series in our current Yelich window is important to this front office. (Don't get me started on the rotation...)

 

No matter how you paint the picture to this point, it has been a very disappointing and underwhelming off season for a team that has been on the brink the past 2 years.

 

Except they signed Sogard 4.5 Gyorko 2 Smoak 4.5 Garcia 8.25 and Lindblom 3 for the price of Donaldson 23. Zero long term risk, and all their non needle moving probably moves the needle quite a bit.

 

Obviously everyone would take Donaldson over Sogard and Gyorko. But 23 doesn't equal 6.5.

 

True... but for their 23, I think the Brewers get more wins. Heck, for less than the AAV of Dolandson's 4/110 demand, the Crew adds Anderson as well.

 

In the aggregate, this does more than Donaldson. The bullpen will feature Rasmussen and Andrews at some point. $1.2 million for a pair of Hader-lite relievers.

[TJseven7]

Gyroko and Sogard are not needle movers, now or in the future. Donaldson would be a needle mover now, which is what we needed to help support our Yelich years.

 

Signing guys like Sogard, Gyroko, Smoak, Morrison, etc are not proving to me that winning the World Series in our current Yelich window is important to this front office. (Don't get me started on the rotation...)

 

No matter how you paint the picture to this point, it has been a very disappointing and underwhelming off season for a team that has been on the brink the past 2 years.

 

Except they signed Sogard 4.5 Gyorko 2 Smoak 4.5 Garcia 8.25 and Lindblom 3 for the price of Donaldson 23. Zero long term risk, and all their non needle moving probably moves the needle quite a bit.

 

Obviously everyone would take Donaldson over Sogard and Gyorko. But 23 doesn't equal 6.5.

 

True... but for their 23, I think the Brewers get more wins. Heck, for less than the AAV of Dolandson's 4/110 demand, the Crew adds Anderson as well.

 

In the aggregate, this does more than Donaldson. The bullpen will feature Rasmussen and Andrews at some point. $1.2 million for a pair of Hader-lite relievers.

 

How many wins do you think they cheaply got from the Sogard Gyorko platoon? Remember both are positive grade defenders at 3b and both have half of the platoon in their wheel house.

See I add up that clearly Donaldson wins

But Garcia should beat Gamel by more than 1

And Smoak I'd expect to be worth 1 playing mainly as a LH1b over a random WW LH1b

Then there's Lindblom and I think that makes is pretty even as a group vs 1 piece.

 

You take away the concerns over age degrading Donaldson's value. The possible 8 mil dead money opt out in year 5. You make it less likely that there are multiple black holes due to the added depth. I believe it's a wash in 2020.

[adambr2]

Gyroko and Sogard are not needle movers, now or in the future. Donaldson would be a needle mover now, which is what we needed to help support our Yelich years.

 

Signing guys like Sogard, Gyroko, Smoak, Morrison, etc are not proving to me that winning the World Series in our current Yelich window is important to this front office. (Don't get me started on the rotation...)

 

No matter how you paint the picture to this point, it has been a very disappointing and underwhelming off season for a team that has been on the brink the past 2 years.

 

I tend to agree. I loved the start of our offseason with the Urias and Narvaez acquisitions. had no illusions that we were going to be involved at all for Cole, Strasburg, or Rendon, and was talking people off the ledge here in November when they went off the board, assuming more moves were coming.

 

But guys like Donaldson and Ryu were feasible deals that could have been real needle movers for a franchise that has been competitive the last few years but is still lacking a World Series in our history. I think we have a real chance to maximize the time we have left in the Yelich era and we missed an opportunity to do that. I understand that Donaldson does not come without risk at his age, no one needs to have that explained to them. If he were 29 instead of 34 he'd be getting Rendon money instead. The point of saying that is that there will never be a feasible deal for us that does not come without risk, so I would say this is the time to take those risks when you have a chance to win it all. I would have seen it as a silly move in 2016, but times have changed.

 

I also understand the reality that sometimes you just get outbid, but it's disappointing to me that we didn't even appear to be seriously involved for either Donaldson or Ryu or any potential needle mover on that tier.

 

At the end of the day I certainly do have faith in Stearns to guide the ship and he's earned the benefit of the doubt, but realistically I don't think this is an improved roster from 2019 and as such I think we really missed an opportunity to put us at the front of the division favorites rather than the 85 or so win team that could win 90 with the right breaks that I think we probably are.

[TJseven7]

And Ryu would cost us Anderson Lindblom Garcia and Smoak all while missing 10 starts a year on average.

 

I really don't get whey everyone wants to be the Angels. A couple superstars and then garbage.

[tmwiese55]

Oh, I dunno, every off-season recently has been one of doom and gloom, then they actually start playing the games and somehow are competitive. It's like they maybe have an idea what they are doing in the Brewers F.O.

 

Exactly. They've earned some benefit of doubt. Generally I know we'd all like to do more, but we have to remember we're Brewers fans and we'll always be the underdog.

 

Also, were Chacin, Miley, Aguilar, Jeffress, Gio, Thames or Shaw types "needle movers" when we got them? Turns out that needle ended up almost winning the WS.

[owbc]

I keep seeing "Yelich window" thrown around but there is zero evidence that the FO is interested in making moves to build around Yelich and not worry about what happens after that. If anything I'm seeing the opposite--they appear to be avoiding contracts that require committing money to 2023. Not saying they are going to try and sign Yelich but they certainly are not projecting an end to the competitive window.

[adambr2]

And Ryu would cost us Anderson Lindblom Garcia and Smoak all while missing 10 starts a year on average.

 

Ryu or Donaldson doesn't stop us from making those moves too. I don't buy that.

 

I really don't get why everyone wants to be the Angels. A couple superstars and then garbage.

 

Isn't that....also kind of what we've been the last few years? Stars and scrubs?

[adambr2]

I keep seeing "Yelich window" thrown around but there is zero evidence that the FO is interested in making moves to build around Yelich and not worry about what happens after that. If anything I'm seeing the opposite--they appear to be avoiding contracts that require committing money to 2023. Not saying they are going to try and sign Yelich but they certainly are not projecting an end to the competitive window.

 

I agree that they don't seem interested in that. I think the thought from some is that maybe they should.

 

A lot can happen in 3 years but right now it's hard to see them contending in a post-Yelich era without going through a full rebuild first. They just don't have much on the farm to present a very good outlook 4 years from now.

[liveforoctober]

And Ryu would cost us Anderson Lindblom Garcia and Smoak all while missing 10 starts a year on average.

 

Ryu or Donaldson doesn't stop us from making those moves too. I don't buy that.

 

I really don't get why everyone wants to be the Angels. A couple superstars and then garbage.

 

Isn't that....also kind of what we've been the last few years? Stars and scrubs?

 

Who would consider stars? Moose? Grandal? Jeffress for 100 games?

 

I would argue we have three stars on our team and those are Yelich, Hader, and Counsell. Beyond that I would say we have had a spectrum of useful players, a few black holes, and one budding offensive stud.

 

I don't believe 'stars and scrubs' is a very accurate description of the last few rosters we've compiled at all.

[TJseven7]

And Ryu would cost us Anderson Lindblom Garcia and Smoak all while missing 10 starts a year on average.

 

Ryu or Donaldson doesn't stop us from making those moves too. I don't buy that.

 

I really don't get why everyone wants to be the Angels. A couple superstars and then garbage.

 

Isn't that....also kind of what we've been the last few years? Stars and scrubs?

 

Doesn't stop us from making those moves but increases the payroll by 15-17 million in the case of Ryu or 15.5 in the case of Donaldson. "I wanted them to spend more" isn't essentially a reality or without future ramifications.

 

Stars and the least expensive player who can do their job in most cases. Aka best value. I don't see value adds/prospecting and scrubs/garbage in the same light.

[MrTPlush]

Yelich is great and all, but he is one guy. We don't suddenly become an incompetent team without him. Much like the Angels are not perennial contenders with Trout. You aren't going to go out and replace him, but you can certainly make a string of moves to lessen that impact. Josh Donaldson would actually be a pretty logical move if we were losing Yelich. He would hopefully replace most of the production without the monumental risk of a mega contract. Think Aramis Ramirez after we lost Prince Fielder.

 

Yelich is not Aaron Rodgers. If we aren't contending post-Yelich it is because of a lot more than losing Yelich. Yelich is a small piece of the pie when it comes to our recent success.

 

Knebel was injured all last year and Jeffress was a dumpster fire and we survived. Jimmy Nelson missed all of 2018 and we nearly made the World Series. Baseball is a team sport.

[bigredrobbo]

I think if the WS success of the Royals and Nats, over recent history, tells us anything, it's that there's no "one true way" to build a successful roster. One built on a shutdown bullpen, with speedy position players, the other with dominant SP and some superstars combined with rookies with talent, and a few ho-hum guys like Parra.

 

On paper, at least 10 teams look better constructed than the Crew to compete in 2020. 10 bucks says we will compete, and some of those 10 won't make the playoffs. I also still think there's one more decent move to come from DS ahead of FanFest - gotta keep that late January JuJu going!

[TJseven7]

Yelich is great and all, but he is one guy. We don't suddenly become an incompetent team without him. Much like the Angels are not perennial contenders with Trout. You aren't going to go out and replace him, but you can certainly make a string of moves to lessen that impact. Josh Donaldson would actually be a pretty logical move if we were losing Yelich. He would hopefully replace most of the production without the monumental risk of a mega contract. Think Aramis Ramirez after we lost Prince Fielder.

 

Chrsitian Yelich is not Aaron Rodgers. If we aren't contending post-Yelich it is because of a lot more than losing Yelich. Yelich is a small piece of the pie when it comes to our recent success.

 

I couldn't disagree more. Yelich at his contract is the only way MKE can hold their payroll and contend. You lose him and you need Hiura and Urias to be incredible players and have the next Hiura Urias behind them. Maybe they can do that. Maybe they have the next Hader in Rasmussen and Lutz/someone can come out of the farm and make up the value but that's a lot of value to make up. You can always replace players, in any sport, including Rodgers in the NFL but you have to operate on an incredibly high level to replace value.

 

When Yelich hits FA that's a huge blow to this franchise's chances. Even if they are able to resign him.

 

If you want a cross sport reference. Yelich is our Mahomes. Insane value, elite elite talent. That is pretty rare. KC will take a considerable hit by simply having to pay him what he's worth. Mahomes is a 30 million dollar value in a sport where the cap is over 190 million. Yelich is a 25-30 million dollar value on a team that caps out at 120-125 mil payroll. It's mythic level value. He alone is a huge reason MKE has been to the playoffs in back to back years. When we lose this 35-40 million dollar player at 12.5 to 15 million dollars of cost, you got a lot of value to make up. A lot.

[brewcrewdue80]

Gyroko and Sogard are not needle movers, now or in the future. Donaldson would be a needle mover now, which is what we needed to help support our Yelich years.

 

Signing guys like Sogard, Gyroko, Smoak, Morrison, etc are not proving to me that winning the World Series in our current Yelich window is important to this front office. (Don't get me started on the rotation...)

 

No matter how you paint the picture to this point, it has been a very disappointing and underwhelming off season for a team that has been on the brink the past 2 years.

 

Except they signed Sogard 4.5 Gyorko 2 Smoak 4.5 Garcia 8.25 and Lindblom 3 for the price of Donaldson 23. Zero long term risk, and all their non needle moving probably moves the needle quite a bit.

 

Obviously everyone would take Donaldson over Sogard and Gyorko. But 23 doesn't equal 6.5.

 

How about we do this experiment. Sogard and Gyorko are paid 5.5 mil if you merely look at this year. Donaldson 21. Take 15.5 mil off the Brewers off season spending and explain who MKE would replace them with that would make them better?

 

Let me guess? No answer other than the FO needs to spend more money.

 

Well, the answer was the amounts you paid for Sogard, Gyorko, Smoak, Garcia, Lindblom don't you think?

 

But if you ask me. Linblom is needed and approve that deal. Garcia I don't think the team needed so -could do without. Sogard and Gyorko obviously not needed in a Donaldson sign. Smoak you needed after letting Thames go.

 

You take the 15mil from the 3 and get a better 1 for 21mil though I really thought he was going to get 24-26mil.

Stearns may have jumped the gun on all these little signings and then wound up, up against the payroll ceiling unable to cross it signing Donaldson.

 

You're weren't going to get regression on Donaldson. What you were avoiding was injury and expense going down the drain while he didn't play.

 

Injuries are a funny thing though. Sogard, Gyorko, Garcia, Smoak, even Lindblom, none of them are immune to the potential for an injury. All of these players are older except Garcia. But with Garcia, he's only had 2 significant seasons and the other 6 were AAAA level essentially. We are now paying this guy 20mil for 2 years and by the numbers 1 of them will be AAAA levels.

Sogard at the age of 33 had his career best season and we tossed 4mil this at that when any of his other 8 seasons played his highest value was 1.9WAR. Career avg after the 2.6WAR value last season still remains below a 1WAR a season.

 

So 2 signings of AAAA quality. Gyorko doesn't have a single season with more than 128games played and carries a career .730OPS. Where his value is, I dunno, one year it's defense, the other year offense and the last 2 years it's neither. AAAA the last 2. He's at least being paid like it.

 

So for 15mil I'd love to have given 7more to know I was putting out there somebody who is going to not only be an everyday player, but one that is elite at his position. Vs. the 3 darts and AAAA likelihoods. You lose Braun next year or at least can and JD's contract isn't hurting the team after 2020.

 

Deep breaths. First real hiccup for me on Stearns.

[TJseven7]

You're still not answering the question though.

 

So basically you want

Donaldson 21 (not counting the 8 mil opt out on Donaldson) Gamel/Taylor .5 (taylor on the roster)

vs

Sogard/Gyroko 6.5 (counting the opt out of Gyroko) Garcia 8.25 (counting 1/2 the opt out of Garcia)

 

Good start. Cut 6.75 mil more please.

 

Also you'll notice I didn't say anything about injuries. I'm also not including 2 mil of the 8 mil Donaldson has deferred into year 5 which basically makes him 23 per. If you truly want to be fair cut 8.75 more please.

[adambr2]

You're still not answering the question though.

 

So basically you want

Donaldson 21 (not counting the 8 mil opt out on Donaldson) Gamel/Taylor .5 (taylor on the roster)

vs

Sogard/Gyroko 6.5 (counting the opt out of Gyroko) Garcia 8.25 (counting 1/2 the opt out of Garcia)

 

Good start. Cut 6.75 mil more please.

 

Also you'll notice I didn't say anything about injuries. I'm also not including 2 mil of the 8 mil Donaldson has deferred into year 5 which basically makes him 23 per. If you truly want to be fair cut 8.75 more please.

 

Why does he have to cut 8.75M? I don't understand the rationale here. It's not like 96M or whatever we're at is our cap and we can't go into the season with a $

105M payroll and still have some flexibility. Braun is likely coming off the books after 2020 as well.

[TJseven7]

All things equal.

 

I want them to spend more is not a fair option. Every team should get better if they spend more. You can't possibly know what they will bring in with the money they don't spend now. You don't know what spending more now will prevent them from being able to bring in later. That opens up a pandora's box that I could fill with whatever value I can dream up for the difference.

 

So we go back to all things equal.

 

Also the clear Braun stuff.

Yelich Cain Garcia Hader Narvaez Suter go up.

Lauer and Woodruff hit arby 1 next year.

 

I'd expect them to want to keep those pieces together without blowing the payroll through the roof. Those increases take care of the vast majority of Braun. Other than Arcia I don't see many players you can replace for less. You need one of the farm arms to replace Anderson to tread water on the staff cost.

[TURBO]

I never said I want them to spend more, although signing real players will cost more. Spending just to spend is not smart.

 

Spending on guys that are needle movers makes a lot more sense than buying a bunch of hopefuls on cheap contracts. With these guys, everything has to fall in line to make us competitive next season, and with all the parts we had to replace, I find it far more likely these guys fail us than a bunch of them meeting the expectations of the front office.

 

I simply did not want to sign all these band aid type players.

 

I don't believe we can piece together a roster like we have an legitimately expect to compete for the division title.

 

It feels like a hope and a prayer type mentality to me, which is why i don't think we are shooting for a World Series in reality.

[pacopete4]

I was not a believer in the "needle movers" this offseason. Grandal would probably be the closest to it and even he tapered off badly last season. Although I think Stearns is going to look great in that department come this season with his Navarez move. Moose is an average player so that was an easy no for me. Donaldson is old and will most likely stink soon. It just wasn't the offseason IMO to go after these types of players.

[Brewcrewin07]

I was not a believer in the "needle movers" this offseason. Grandal would probably be the closest to it and even he tapered off badly last season. Although I think Stearns is going to look great in that department come this season with his Navarez move. Moose is an average player so that was an easy no for me. Donaldson is old and will most likely stink soon. It just wasn't the offseason IMO to go after these types of players.

 

You didn't think Rendon, or Cole or Strasburg were needle movers??

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I was not a believer in the "needle movers" this offseason. Grandal would probably be the closest to it and even he tapered off badly last season. Although I think Stearns is going to look great in that department come this season with his Navarez move. Moose is an average player so that was an easy no for me. Donaldson is old and will most likely stink soon. It just wasn't the offseason IMO to go after these types of players.

 

You didn't think Rendon, or Cole or Strasburg were needle movers??

 

Not if you are trying to make a decision based on any sort of realism.

[sveumrules]

I was not a believer in the "needle movers" this offseason. Grandal would probably be the closest to it and even he tapered off badly last season. Although I think Stearns is going to look great in that department come this season with his Navarez move. Moose is an average player so that was an easy no for me. Donaldson is old and will most likely stink soon. It just wasn't the offseason IMO to go after these types of players.

 

You didn't think Rendon, or Cole or Strasburg were needle movers??

 

Yes, they move the needle far into the red, so they were never signing here.

[pacopete4]

I was not a believer in the "needle movers" this offseason. Grandal would probably be the closest to it and even he tapered off badly last season. Although I think Stearns is going to look great in that department come this season with his Navarez move. Moose is an average player so that was an easy no for me. Donaldson is old and will most likely stink soon. It just wasn't the offseason IMO to go after these types of players.

 

You didn't think Rendon, or Cole or Strasburg were needle movers??

 

I didn’t mention the ones that are well out of our price range for a reason and I think many here have already explained why.

[brewcrewdue80]

You're still not answering the question though.

 

So basically you want

Donaldson 21 (not counting the 8 mil opt out on Donaldson) Gamel/Taylor .5 (taylor on the roster)

vs

Sogard/Gyroko 6.5 (counting the opt out of Gyroko) Garcia 8.25 (counting 1/2 the opt out of Garcia)

 

Good start. Cut 6.75 mil more please.

 

Also you'll notice I didn't say anything about injuries. I'm also not including 2 mil of the 8 mil Donaldson has deferred into year 5 which basically makes him 23 per. If you truly want to be fair cut 8.75 more please.

 

The money is still there to spend 8.75mil.

And yes if I'm looking at an expensive group of AAAA players vs ones that are going to cost multiple millions of dollars, I am easily more confortable with Gamel and Taylor or even Ray should the OF trio of Yelich, Cain, Braun need a game or few off. Heck, even Broxton in a pinch I'd roll with over Garcia keeping the team from a true difference maker in Donaldson. Garcia is just a guy and he's going to make 10mil a year. That's crazy for the utter disappointment he's been for his career to go pay a 2WAR player 10mil but not a 6+WAR player at a true area of need 21-24?

 

Injuries is just the overall broader argument due to his age. It didn't have to do with replies. It's arguing against this argument where he can't be worth the money because injuries at a higher age happen more frequently. But that reads to me that injuries to younger players aren't a factor to their value. Like they're immune to injury devaluing them because of how cheap they are and you know maybe having a 2WAR season around .725-800 OPS makes that choice a better choice than signing a 33yr old to a 4/5 year contract, even though they are likely to give you 6WAR or higher. When 6WAR can be had for 23mil at what may be your worst sitting position in terms of roster and depth? It's a complete fail on Stearns end and evaluation of what he's pieced together.

 

All Donaldson has to do is have another 6WAR season or higher, and you'll likely be able to trade him for value. I mean if Arenado can return anything of value with that contract, 3years 66mil is a drop in the water.

[TJseven7]

Again, you aren't answering the question.

 

Donaldson Gamel/Taylor

vs

Sogard/Gyorko Garcia

 

You need to save 6.75 to 8.75 million because that's roughly 1 WAR right? I just get to add 1 WAR to my side, fair?

 

Ok have you heard of ZIPS. Do you think they have a pretty decent handle on what they are doing?

Donaldson 3.8 WAR

Sogard/Gyorko 1.8 WAR

Garcia over Gamel/Taylor is another .7 WAR

I get 1 WAR for my 6.75 to 8.75 mil because that's fair.

 

That means Donaldson makes the team .3 wins better. Is locking yourself into a 23/4 contract on an old player worth a .3 win bump to the NOW?

 

Turborickey doesn't want hopes and prayers. But then the guy defending his case, brewcrewdue80, is talking about an OF that heavily plays Gamel Taylor or maybe even Broxton or Ray.

 

Turbokickey, you want to root for a different team with a different payroll because the way to get those needle movers is to play "hopes and prayers" in spots that you can then refer to as dead spots. You simply can't buy known all around the diamond on this payroll. What you can do is buy multiples of unknown pieces who point towards new normal and rebound years based on our FOs metrics in the attempt to steal some value.

 

If you don't do that. Sure you can pay Donaldson. But Gamel Taylor are playing all the bench ABs in the OF and all of what Garcia will play. You are replacing Smoak with a WW guy. You are replacing Lindblom with Burnes (hope and pray) or a WW guy.

 

That's the reality of this.