Twins Sign Donaldson - Four Year/$92 Million

[adambr2]

And we're two years into the Cain deal and many here who are looking to get out of it and think it's a bad deal. At the very least, I think all would agree he would not get the 3/50ish left on his deal if we a a FA right now. Yet, out of the other side of our mouth we want to do that again and again out of impatience.

 

So what exactly do you want to do with our excess payroll money every year? You're going to have to take some shots knowing that they're not going to work out great on the back end. May as well do them when you've made the playoffs two years in a row and have never won a World Series and have an MVP caliber player to build around.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Braun hasn't been in the same stratosphere as Donaldson value-wise since 2012. If Braun had only has one season under a 5 WAR in his last 7 seasons, we wouldn't be able to pick up his 2021 option fast enough despite his age.

 

In addition, you're not going to get Yelich on a 4 year extension at age 31. It would take at least 7 years, putting him at the same age as Donaldson when their respective contracts would expire. So there's no less risk there and arguably more.

 

The point is every player loses productivity as they age, and you never know when the bottom is going to drop out completely. I'm certainly not adverse to signing older players, and those type of guys can provide a lot of value. But the risk inevitably goes up as the years advance away from that prime 27-30 age range.

[Thurston Fluff]

The Twins must be a larger market team then the Brewers

 

 

Minneapolis metro is 3.6 million. Milwaukee Metro is 1.6 million.

 

The Brewers have a big market outside of just Milwaukee Metro. They're a lot more Wisconsin's team than Milwaukee's team.

 

Couldn't the same be said on Minnesota?

[tmwiese55]

And we're two years into the Cain deal and many here who are looking to get out of it and think it's a bad deal. At the very least, I think all would agree he would not get the 3/50ish left on his deal if we a a FA right now. Yet, out of the other side of our mouth we want to do that again and again out of impatience.

 

So what exactly do you want to do with our excess payroll money every year? You're going to have to take some shots knowing that they're not going to work out great on the back end. May as well do them when you've made the playoffs two years in a row and have never won a World Series and have an MVP caliber player to build around.

 

Good post, that's the dilemma they're in as management really. The 1 year deals they pulled off last year won't be too common. I'd guess deals in the vein of what Garcia got will be what they'll look at a bunch. Some for more money and 2-3 year type deals (since 1 years seem rare) if the opportunities come up. I'd guess this years market just blew them away and they're hoping next year teams will have blown their budgets and therefor we can swoop in and get a guy or two next year in the same Moose/Grandal mold of situations. Can't 'bank' on that though.

 

In more general team building big pic as opposed to the right now that so many are obsessed with would be to home grow your own players and then spend your money on buying out their first few years of FA. Take what ATL did with their young stars as an example. Take Woodruff as an example of a guy like that, obviously Keston. If the new C does well he could be one that makes sense too. And of course, as I've mentioned, they might be looking at the "excess payroll" already spent if they sign Yelich. If they lose him, he gets hurt, tails off, etc and that contract doesn't come to reality though they should have money to play with. And I still would assume the Cain type contracts will happen as well, older and legit deals but not crazy contract either. Basically, the 2nd and 3rd tier FAs I'm sure will still be in play and at some point a deal will work out. Keep in mind Cain was 31 when they signed him, not 34.

[adambr2]

Yeah I get that they have to time the markets right and I agree they might have been surprised by how robust this FA market is. I certainly didn't expect us to be involved in bidding for Rendon or Strasburg or Cole. But when I saw Donaldson's deal i thought, that's a feasible deal at an enormous upgrade at a position of need and there's no reason we couldn't at least have been involved at that level of bidding.

 

I would guess that Donaldson is an elite player for two more years, average for one and below average for the 4th and to me that would be worth it right now for where we're at. But I realize that's just my own projection and no one knows for sure right now.

[brewcrewdue80]

If anything, you'd think having two prime examples of that on the roster would make people realize the hesitation management has on wading into those waters. But, I guess not so for everyone.

 

Also, have to believe they're at least trying to concoct a way to resign Yelich so have to at least try to plan for that down the line.

 

Yelich has a longer list of injury history and will be 31 moving forward from his current contract. So why is Donaldson's bump in the road and age a concern, but not Yelich's? Yelich's best season to War sits 3rd for Donaldson.

 

OK. So Yelich just played basically 4 straight full seasons outside of missing the last few weeks. Granted, it's lucky timing to have the injury happen at the end so he barely missed time. But that and being age 31 instead of 34 are drastically different, if you don't agree then so be it but it's seems fairly clear to me.

 

Now, how about this scenario. We buyout a couple years of FA from Yeli and he hits FA at age 33. But he essentially is injured the two previous seasons leading up to that age 33/34is FA. You still want to hand him a mega deal? Apparently you do and don't think 33/34 years old isn't a big enough flag, then adding two injury filled seasons prior to aren't flags then I guess you don't think anything is a flag. Sign everyone, big contracts to mid 30s players always turn out great. Who am I kidding.

 

Come on man or woman, Yelich went on the DL for an Oblique injury beginning of 2018 season. Then he had to miss essentially 5games due to his back. Which is what caused him to miss time Again in 2019. A HR Derby in 2019. 14games in 2019 outside of the "few weeks" to end 2019. That is not 4 straight seasons. In 2014 his Back caused him to miss games for Miami. That is an injury history to be concerned about. Oblique or Back. Far more than a Calf Strain.

And I have no idea what Yelich will be like returning from the kneecap injury until he's back on the field.

Donaldson is a full year removed from the calf strain and played a "full season" of games in 2019.

 

Thinking on a Yelich extension. Buying out ages 32 and 33 uh? So he gets his first chance at FA at age 34 right? That's laughable. Think about that. Testing FA after age 31 is the best chance he's going to get at a mega deal. Vs. this Donaldson deal far from it going in to age 34. It just may be perfect with the timeframe on signing the extension with Miami. Great guarantee and test FA at 31 going to 32. If Milw finds a way to give Yelich an extension it has to be 5years beyond if not 6 currently to even give Yelich the thought to do so. Now, if 2020 he's clearly affected by his injury to knee on top of back needing breaks, he may consider a deal less than 5 years extended. His current value is to test FA or sign a 5year or more extension that exceeds 100mil.

[tmwiese55]

Yeah I get that they have to time the markets right and I agree they might have been surprised by how robust this FA market is. I certainly didn't expect us to be involved in bidding for Rendon or Strasburg or Cole. But when I saw Donaldson's deal i thought, that's a feasible deal at an enormous upgrade at a position of need and there's no reason we couldn't at least have been involved at that level of bidding.

 

I would guess that Donaldson is an elite player for two more years, average for one and below average for the 4th and to me that would be worth it right now for where we're at. But I realize that's just my own projection and no one knows for sure right now.

 

That's fair. I do think we're very much so overlooking the DH aspects here. Just think how often 37 year olds play well in the post PED era, it's darn rare now. Then factor in him having to play D every year as he gets older. Give us the DH and I think they could've done this, without it I get the hesitation. And again, teams with tons more money and the DH (like say TX) also didn't value him this high. For this current year, yea take away Garcia's 10 mil and give that to JD plus 10-12 more is very smart and makes sense. If he's injured or just done after two more years though MKE is basically done as well as 20-25 mil clunker on our books is a killer.

[tmwiese55]

Yelich has a longer list of injury history and will be 31 moving forward from his current contract. So why is Donaldson's bump in the road and age a concern, but not Yelich's? Yelich's best season to War sits 3rd for Donaldson.

 

OK. So Yelich just played basically 4 straight full seasons outside of missing the last few weeks. Granted, it's lucky timing to have the injury happen at the end so he barely missed time. But that and being age 31 instead of 34 are drastically different, if you don't agree then so be it but it's seems fairly clear to me.

 

Now, how about this scenario. We buyout a couple years of FA from Yeli and he hits FA at age 33. But he essentially is injured the two previous seasons leading up to that age 33/34is FA. You still want to hand him a mega deal? Apparently you do and don't think 33/34 years old isn't a big enough flag, then adding two injury filled seasons prior to aren't flags then I guess you don't think anything is a flag. Sign everyone, big contracts to mid 30s players always turn out great. Who am I kidding.

 

Come on man or woman, Yelich went on the DL for an Oblique injury beginning of 2018 season. Then he had to miss essentially 5games due to his back. Which is what caused him to miss time Again in 2019. A HR Derby in 2019. 14games in 2019 outside of the "few weeks" to end 2019. That is not 4 straight seasons. In 2014 his Back caused him to miss games for Miami. That is an injury history to be concerned about. Oblique or Back. Far more than a Calf Strain.

And I have no idea what Yelich will be like returning from the kneecap injury until he's back on the field.

Donaldson is a full year removed from the calf strain and played a "full season" of games in 2019.

 

Thinking on a Yelich extension. Buying out ages 32 and 33 uh? So he gets his first chance at FA at age 34 right? That's laughable. Think about that. Testing FA after age 31 is the best chance he's going to get at a mega deal. Vs. this Donaldson deal far from it going in to age 34. It just may be perfect with the timeframe on signing the extension with Miami. Great guarantee and test FA at 31 going to 32. If Milw finds a way to give Yelich an extension it has to be 5years beyond if not 6 currently to even give Yelich the thought to do so. Now, if 2020 he's clearly affected by his injury to knee on top of back needing breaks, he may consider a deal less than 5 years extended. His current value is to test FA or sign a 5year or more extension that exceeds 100mil.

--------

 

Sorry you didn't follow. I didn't say that would happen. I was presenting a hypothetical Yeli FA scenario similar to what JD has going on (you were trying to equate age 31 with 34). I wasn't saying we'd be able to buy out just two years, I agree he'd laugh at that. I was saying, "what if we did and then he hit FA at age 33 after being injured for two straight years". You apparently would still want to pay the guy a ton of money, me and most others would be very hesitant. IDK how that was difficult to follow, but apparently it was.

 

Should I go into those injuries and try to act like those injuries don't matter like you did? No I won't. Yeli played 155, 156, 147 and 130 games this year due to the injury. If you don't think 147-155 is a full season I don't know what to say but it is. And I said he was 'lucky' this one happened so late so he didn't miss many games.

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah I get that they have to time the markets right and I agree they might have been surprised by how robust this FA market is. I certainly didn't expect us to be involved in bidding for Rendon or Strasburg or Cole. But when I saw Donaldson's deal i thought, that's a feasible deal at an enormous upgrade at a position of need and there's no reason we couldn't at least have been involved at that level of bidding.

 

I would guess that Donaldson is an elite player for two more years, average for one and below average for the 4th and to me that would be worth it right now for where we're at. But I realize that's just my own projection and no one knows for sure right now.

 

Not to interrupt your back and forth, but Donaldson is 34 this year...and had a very forgettable 2018 season. There are certainly reasons to not pay him that contract. We also don't(yet) have the DH to fall back on.

 

I think I personally would prefer to roll with a Sogard/Gyorko platoon and save some payroll $ for deadline moves(assuming we actually spend it). I think it's pretty safe to say that Hiura, Smoak, and Urias will be starting a lot. If any of Sogard/Gyorko/Arcia looks really good, we can adapt and get them a lot of playing time. Competition is a good thing. Saving payroll could allow us to bring in a frontline starter at the deadline. Imagine if Houston has a slow start and sells at the deadline...it would be tough to fit Greinke or Verlander in the budget if we add Donaldson's 23 million.

[brewcrewdue80]

I dont see a stint on the IL being a player playing a full season of games. He also left a game after 1 inning and missed the next 4 games. Any IL stint imo means you didnt play a full season of games.

Can I call in sick at work once every 10 days and then tell them I worked a full year? He missed 10% of games in 2018. 146 vs 162. 147 is game 163 for the team.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Twins must be a larger market team then the Brewers

 

 

Minneapolis metro is 3.6 million. Milwaukee Metro is 1.6 million.

 

TV market is 1.697 million for MPLS vs 837,000 for MKE, so they got us beat there too.

 

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/

 

Quick googling also looks like the Twins owner has a net worth that is a couple two tree billion higher than Mark A, for whatever that is or isn't worth.

 

Yeah but the Green Bay and Madison television markets are both decent size and overlap the Milwaukee market.

[sveumrules]

 

TV market is 1.697 million for MPLS vs 837,000 for MKE, so they got us beat there too.

 

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/

 

Quick googling also looks like the Twins owner has a net worth that is a couple two tree billion higher than Mark A, for whatever that is or isn't worth.

 

Yeah but the Green Bay and Madison television markets are both decent size and overlap the Milwaukee market.

 

True. Either way, the Twins still have a TV deal that pays them about 20 million more annually than the Brewers.

 

Looking at the two teams' historical payrolls on Cots, both clubs broke 70 million in opening day payroll for the first time in 2007.

 

Starting then, the Twins have spent about 1,334,600,000 dollars to go 1,019-1,089. They've made the postseason four times in that span going 0-10.

 

Since 2007, the Brewers have spent about 1,258,400,000 dollars to go 1,077-1,030. They've also made the postseason four times in that span going 12-14.

 

If you narrow it to just the Stearns years we've spent about 416,600,000 to go 344-305 compared to the Twins spending about 529,500,000 to go 323-325.

 

Spending more money does not guarantee winning more games.

[Matty V]

This contract will age like a jug of milk left out in the sun.

[TJseven7]

I really do not like big contracts on guys well past their prime. You are playing with fire and regardless of it working out over the long haul or not, you are not siding with probability in the slightest. I'm glad he ended up with the Twins though. If he flops then he flops. If he doesn't, he's on the Twins and I couldn't care less.

 

I've been waiting for Braun's deal to end since the real Dodgers rumors and I'm hopeful Cain can get back to being a 350 obp guy so he's not merely a GG CF and back of the order bat. I don't want to add another deal like that just when we are on the verge of getting off the overpaid deal of Braun.

 

I don't see offense being a problem. If Sogard Gyorko Smoak don't work out I'm sure there will be guys doing what we expect from them available at the deadline for next to nothing in trade. If they live up to projections the offense will be fine. Donaldson regardless of if you like the price or not, would have essentially capped MKE. The team still needs arms. There are solid arms available on the market and flexibility is good.

[igor67]

Someone posted they thought Donaldson would have 2 great years, an OK year, and a time for retirement year. If I knew for sure that would happen I agree that the money would be worth it with the current team construction. But not only is aging rough 3rd basemen seem to age pretty poorly historically and Donaldson by that metric is already past his sell-by date. So I certainly understand not getting involved with that contract. I used to think Prince would beat the odds for large bodied 1st basemen...

[tmwiese55]

I dont see a stint on the IL being a player playing a full season of games. He also left a game after 1 inning and missed the next 4 games. Any IL stint imo means you didnt play a full season of games.

Can I call in sick at work once every 10 days and then tell them I worked a full year? He missed 10% of games in 2018. 146 vs 162. 147 is game 163 for the team.

 

Well, I'd simply say I disagree with your take. Everyone misses a few games. If your opinion is that nobody plays a full season so be it. I don't get the need to bash Yeli to justify Donaldson but carry on.

 

FYI, Trout hasn't played above 140 games in 3 seasons. You can grab anyone and look at their games, almost everyone misses a few games. The issue with JD is that he was at an age where two straight injured years could be a real problem (odds go up every year they get older). He bounced back well last year though, good for him. We'll see if he makes it 4 more. And again, we don't have DH to help with maintenance on him.

 

Also, yes most people do miss something close to 10% of the days when you factor in PTO and sick days. I know I do.

[Roderick]

And we're two years into the Cain deal and many here who are looking to get out of it and think it's a bad deal. At the very least, I think all would agree he would not get the 3/50ish left on his deal if we a a FA right now. Yet, out of the other side of our mouth we want to do that again and again out of impatience.

 

So what exactly do you want to do with our excess payroll money every year? You're going to have to take some shots knowing that they're not going to work out great on the back end. May as well do them when you've made the playoffs two years in a row and have never won a World Series and have an MVP caliber player to build around.

 

You don't have "excess payroll money every year" the second a big free agent contract is signed. The Brewers have one shot and they can't get it wrong, unlike the big wallet teams. If the player we sign gets injured or underperforms, we can't spend for another guy. So I have no problems with caution. If we are under budget this year, I'm sure MA will allow us to be over budget a following year.

[Soupbone]

Roderick nails it. The Brewers have to get it right because of payroll constraints. Hence we get Sogard/Gyorko at 3B and the Twins get Donaldson.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The 2018 and 2019 offseasons are what the Brewers do when they have excess payroll - those two opening day payrolls are among their highest payrolls in team history, with 2019 being number 1. They don't go out and get Grandal and Moose last offseason unless they are on 1 year deals. Hell, they don't go out and sign Cain along with trading for Yelich in the 2018 offseason unless they spent the prior 1-2 seasons with a reduced payroll.

 

Couple things related to where the current Brewer payroll sits relative to last season:

 

#1 - they do have some flexibility to add a bit more payroll if they bring in a player via trade, provided what's leaving includes players currently on their 40 man. I think that may still happen before opening day, if not midseason if the Brewers are again in contention and buyers/sellers are more defined in July than in January.

 

#2 - the Brewers could also be exploring what it might take to lock up Yelich to an extension, particularly if it would include restructuring his current deal to actually pay him anything close to what he's worth to their team in his prime. They still have him 3 more seasons at around $14M per season, which is comically low. What if they are viewing the $ coming off the books after this year with Braun's deal ending as a way of giving Yelich more over the next 3 seasons and potentially extending him into his mid-30s? Expecting Yelich to take a team-friendly discount is pretty silly unless the Brewers' offer includes much more money in seasons 2020-2022 than he is going to make with his current deal. I'd much rather the Brewers explore ways to pay Yelich $25-$30M a year in his age 31-34 seasons (2023- 2026) than shelling out roughly that much for Donaldson in his age 34-37 seasons. The ONLY way keeping Yelich around past 2022 is for the Brewers start planning for his increased contract now, and perhaps the only way to keep him happy the next 3 seasons is to find a way to restructure his current deal.

[adambr2]

Roderick nails it. The Brewers have to get it right because of payroll constraints. Hence we get Sogard/Gyorko at 3B and the Twins get Donaldson.

 

There really is no "getting it right". Big FA deals will almost all be great on the front end and terrible on the back end. Cain was fantastic his first year but will almost assuredly be a bad deal on the back end.

 

It's more about picking and choosing your spots and I'd rather pick those spots while Yelich is still here and not trust the Sogars/Gyorko typea of the world to put us over the top. I understand we will always have payroll constraints but I continue to think Donaldson would have been a good value for us at this time because of where we're at.

[TURBO]

Gyroko and Sogard are not needle movers, now or in the future. Donaldson would be a needle mover now, which is what we needed to help support our Yelich years.

 

Signing guys like Sogard, Gyroko, Smoak, Morrison, etc are not proving to me that winning the World Series in our current Yelich window is important to this front office. (Don't get me started on the rotation...)

 

No matter how you paint the picture to this point, it has been a very disappointing and underwhelming off season for a team that has been on the brink the past 2 years.

[bigredrobbo]

Oh, I dunno, every off-season recently has been one of doom and gloom, then they actually start playing the games and somehow are competitive. It's like they maybe have an idea what they are doing in the Brewers F.O.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Oh, I dunno, every off-season recently has been one of doom and gloom, then they actually start playing the games and somehow are competitive. It's like they maybe have an idea what they are doing in the Brewers F.O.

 

LOL, you don't say!

 

Yep, doom and gloom is right. January is the time to overthink things and see the worst. Perhaps once the weather starts warming up, so will the moods. 'Tis the season.

[liveforoctober]

Gyroko and Sogard are not needle movers, now or in the future. Donaldson would be a needle mover now, which is what we needed to help support our Yelich years.

 

Signing guys like Sogard, Gyroko, Smoak, Morrison, etc are not proving to me that winning the World Series in our current Yelich window is important to this front office. (Don't get me started on the rotation...)

 

No matter how you paint the picture to this point, it has been a very disappointing and underwhelming off season for a team that has been on the brink the past 2 years.

 

So you would have given Donaldson 4/92?

[TJseven7]

Gyroko and Sogard are not needle movers, now or in the future. Donaldson would be a needle mover now, which is what we needed to help support our Yelich years.

 

Signing guys like Sogard, Gyroko, Smoak, Morrison, etc are not proving to me that winning the World Series in our current Yelich window is important to this front office. (Don't get me started on the rotation...)

 

No matter how you paint the picture to this point, it has been a very disappointing and underwhelming off season for a team that has been on the brink the past 2 years.

 

Except they signed Sogard 4.5 Gyorko 2 Smoak 4.5 Garcia 8.25 and Lindblom 3 for the price of Donaldson 23. Zero long term risk, and all their non needle moving probably moves the needle quite a bit.

 

Obviously everyone would take Donaldson over Sogard and Gyorko. But 23 doesn't equal 6.5.

 

How about we do this experiment. Sogard and Gyorko are paid 5.5 mil if you merely look at this year. Donaldson 21. Take 15.5 mil off the Brewers off season spending and explain who MKE would replace them with that would make them better?

 

Let me guess? No answer other than the FO needs to spend more money.