Twins Sign Donaldson - Four Year/$92 Million

[PeaveyFury]

 

With all due respect, I don't consider guys like Moose and Grandal who were only around for a year "big" Free agent signings.

 

But even though you don't, the rest of the league does.

[Brewcrewin07]

 

With all due respect, I don't consider guys like Moose and Grandal who were only around for a year "big" Free agent signings. Big in name, yes, big in $$ for one year, I guess so. To me(and it's me personally) "big" FA signings are guys you sign for 4-5 years and they are part of your core going forward. Cain was a "big" FA signing. The problem is, the Brewers will probably only have one of these types every 3-4 years. The rest will be cheaper one year guys or "filler" and "hope" type of guys, like we see this year.

 

Which makes your disappointment at the Crew not landing Donaldson really about your expectations that we WOULD sign him. I'm disappointed ScarJo never picked up the phone before she started dating Colin Jost. Again, that's on me, it wasn't gonna happen!

 

No, I didn't expect them to sign him..but I was hoping that they would make a splash like this. I should know by now they just aren't going to do things like that, it sucks, not going to lie.

[brewcrewdue80]

Oh I forgot to add that moving back to the AL, Donaldson will accrue more PAs to earn a higher WAR than what he would predictably from the NL. So seeing his 6WAR value in Atl in 2019, may be why it dropped to 6 vs the 7+ it had been in the AL with Toronto 4 years straight. Considering his defense isn't a problem but just may become one? For age sake, there is the DH to downgrade him to. Can still provide 4+War from there.

This is a steal of a deal. Better than Cain's even because yr 5 is an option. The only way you can consider this a bad deal is if you considered Cain's deal a bad deal. Otherwise you're just playing the game where you find a way to make every deal ok in your head unless it's such a minor deal(like LoMo or Sogard's)

 

21mil a year for a 6+WAR player. Only 2018 was he not on his way to a 6WAR season and that year he dealt with the injuries almost from start of the season. What are GMs doing? What was Stearns doing? I mentioned the only thought I can put is they really believe Lucas Erceg is about to arrive on the scene at 3b for them. Cheap and with 6years+ control. Stearns couldn't fit a need any better otherwise than with JD. It presented Milwaukee with the need met with Cain's signing.

[tmwiese55]

Other GMs didn't do it because he's 34 and they expect a decline. It's that simple. For a guy who's supposedly such a lock, why were no teams willing to go beyond 1 year for him last year. He's getting old and has been hurt off and on for a few years before staying healthy last year. There is a huge chance normal regression starts combined with increase injury based type regression at his age. Having the DH really helps mitigate some of that risk, and that's something MKE doesn't have.

 

This one has all the makings of a can't win for the team if you're MKE. Don't sign him and gt ripped on now for being cheap. Do sign him, get ripped on 2-3 years from now when you're paying a 37 year old 25 mil to not be good. Something like, "How dumb could you be to pay a 34 year old 25 mil into his age 37/38 seasons, haven't you seen how this turns out all over the league over and over". Either way, the know it all fans will have been right.

 

IMO, the not having the DH is a very very important aspect of this for the Brewers or any NL team. and yet another example of how dumb it is to have different rules for each league.

[3and2Fastball]

Can you imagine Donaldson in the Brewers’ lineup?

 

Cain

Yelich

Hiura

Donaldson

Narvaez

Garcia

Braun/Smoak

Arcia/Urias

 

A huge missed opportunity... maybe they trade for Arenado. Maybe it might snow in July.

[Brewcrewin07]

 

With all due respect, I don't consider guys like Moose and Grandal who were only around for a year "big" Free agent signings.

 

But even though you don't, the rest of the league does.

 

To me, they are renta players for a full year...not a "big" FA signing. No different than acquiring someone at the deadline, only you have them for the full year not half a year.

 

This offseason has been a colossal bust as far as I'm concerned. I was really thinking Grandal and Moose would both be back...no reason I thought they couldn't/shouldn't have been. At least one of them for sure I thought would be back.

[pacopete4]

Sometimes I feel like our FA discussions with these "name" players kinda goes like Farley trying to sell brake pads. I picture Farley as MA and Spade as Stearns.

[tmwiese55]

The missed opportunity would've been last offseason to get either him or Moose on affordable multi year deals when they were a year younger. Say instead of 1/25 he got from ATL you'd have gotten him to take 3/60, something like that. Same for Moose on a smaller scale. I'd guess multiple teams tried that though and both decided 1 year gambles were their best moves.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

With all due respect, I don't consider guys like Moose and Grandal who were only around for a year "big" Free agent signings.

 

But even though you don't, the rest of the league does.

 

To me, they are renta players for a full year...not a "big" FA signing. No different than acquiring someone at the deadline, only you have them for the full year not half a year.

 

This offseason has been a colossal bust as far as I'm concerned. I was really thinking Grandal and Moose would both be back...no reason I thought they couldn't/shouldn't have been. At least one of them for sure I thought would be back.

 

If that is truly your definition of a "big" free agent signing, it's probably best not to get your hopes up, because the Cain deal is proving to be an anomaly with each passing year. We may see some sort of splash next year with Braun comes off the books, but even then I wouldn't really bet on it. What this front office has done though, is supply the 2020 roster with multiple interesting players, most of which have a good amount of upside or a semi-recent MLB track record of success. It's a really interesting group of players who all seem to bring a little something different to the table ... almost like a modern-day version of Moneyball. While I'd love to see the team acquire more "sure thing" type names, I think that they feel, for the cost they'd need to invest in those guys, it somewhat mitigates the production. If Donaldson gets hurt or starts showing his age (and remember, father time is undefeated), you are looking at a failure on a $20+ million AAV investment. If Gyorko is bad, you are looking at failure on a $2 million investment. Those failures are a lot easier to fix midseason for a team in contention. As much as you seem to believe that Donaldson will continue to hit like a superstar, that is definitely not guaranteed. Any contract carries a certain amount of risk.

[pacopete4]

This is impressive:

 

1.031 Nelson Cruz

.995 Mitch Garver

.923 Miguel Sano

.900 Josh Donaldson

.855 Max Kepler

.841 Jorge Polanco

.838 Luis Arraez

.827 Byron Buxton

.800 Eddie Rosario

.758 *MLB AVERAGE*

[tmwiese55]

And we're two years into the Cain deal and many here who are looking to get out of it and think it's a bad deal. At the very least, I think all would agree he would not get the 3/50ish left on his deal if we a a FA right now. Yet, out of the other side of our mouth we want to do that again and again out of impatience.

[adambr2]

It kind of sucks that our big money guys (Braun, Cain) have reached points in their career where we can really only expect average production rather than superstar production during the 3 remaining years of our Yelich window. I just felt like with Braun off the books after one more season it would have been pretty reasonable to give Donaldson this type of deal now.

[tmwiese55]

If anything, you'd think having two prime examples of that on the roster would make people realize the hesitation management has on wading into those waters. But, I guess not so for everyone.

 

Also, have to believe they're at least trying to concoct a way to resign Yelich so have to at least try to plan for that down the line.

[jjfanec]

This is impressive:

 

1.031 Nelson Cruz

.995 Mitch Garver

.923 Miguel Sano

.900 Josh Donaldson

.855 Max Kepler

.841 Jorge Polanco

.838 Luis Arraez

.827 Byron Buxton

.800 Eddie Rosario

.758 *MLB AVERAGE*

 

It really is. They actually just traded out CJ Cron at .780 with Donaldson and got better defense since Sano wont have to play 3b. It is all about if their pitching can hold up

[3and2Fastball]

And we're two years into the Cain deal and many here who are looking to get out of it and think it's a bad deal. At the very least, I think all would agree he would not get the 3/50ish left on his deal if we a a FA right now. Yet, out of the other side of our mouth we want to do that again and again out of impatience.

 

Cain was an MVP candidate in year 1, and a Gold Glove winner in year 2. The contract has already paid for itself as far as I’m concerned.

 

The issue is that supposedly the Cain contract prevents us from signing other free agents at a similar cost. Some people here think that is absurd, others think that makes perfect sense.

 

Once again it comes down to not so much the value of a contract like Cain’s, it is about the Brewers “payroll limitations” and whether or not you think that is a legit issue.

 

But hey, let’s all go to Miller Park, tailgate in the sun, drink 8 beers and Go Brewers!

[brewcrewdue80]

Other GMs didn't do it because he's 34 and they expect a decline. It's that simple. For a guy who's supposedly such a lock, why were no teams willing to go beyond 1 year for him last year. He's getting old and has been hurt off and on for a few years before staying healthy last year. There is a huge chance normal regression starts combined with increase injury based type regression at his age. Having the DH really helps mitigate some of that risk, and that's something MKE doesn't have.

 

This one has all the makings of a can't win for the team if you're MKE. Don't sign him and gt ripped on now for being cheap. Do sign him, get ripped on 2-3 years from now when you're paying a 37 year old 25 mil to not be good. Something like, "How dumb could you be to pay a 34 year old 25 mil into his age 37/38 seasons, haven't you seen how this turns out all over the league over and over". Either way, the know it all fans will have been right.

 

IMO, the not having the DH is a very very important aspect of this for the Brewers or any NL team. and yet another example of how dumb it is to have different rules for each league.

 

First Bold: just turned 34 and will be entire 2020 season.

 

2nd Bold/italic: 2018 and the injuries would be a reason why. Maybe JD didn't want to sign a contract longer than 1year with a prove it season to build on his FA value.

 

3rd Bold/Italic/Underline: He has 2 years with injury history. 2017 a Calf strain. 2018 a Deadarm IL stint and then calf strain returning. 2 is fewer than a few years. This isn't a Ryan Braun type injury history where thumb/back/intercoastals/groin etc as alarms to further injury concerns. This isn't a collection from 3 or 5 years ago to go with the injuries in 2018. This is a Calf strain. And deadarm to start a season after returning from said calf strain initial injury. He's a year removed from the strained calf. That is not an injury that I'd be concerned with being a constant nagging injury for him and returning. Pretty much the next injury he will incur to keep him out of games, will be the first time this injury happened to him.

 

62% of his career self is all that needs to be accomplished to make the value of the contract. He can miss some major time and be worth every penny to this contract.

[tmwiese55]

Yea, I'm not on the bashing Cain contract train like some are. But I was pointing it out as something that has been complained about. And that's why I brought it back to the simplicity of that everyone would agree he would not get the remainder if he was on the open market. It's an example right in our face as to why 4-5 deals are very risky for us. One could also easily say for 2019 that you don't have to pay 17 mil for 4 years for high quality D with blah batting. Personally, I think his hitting bounces back just fine next year and we'll get through 3 years of that deal OK, then we'll see from there.

[tmwiese55]

Other GMs didn't do it because he's 34 and they expect a decline. It's that simple. For a guy who's supposedly such a lock, why were no teams willing to go beyond 1 year for him last year. He's getting old and has been hurt off and on for a few years before staying healthy last year. There is a huge chance normal regression starts combined with increase injury based type regression at his age. Having the DH really helps mitigate some of that risk, and that's something MKE doesn't have.

 

This one has all the makings of a can't win for the team if you're MKE. Don't sign him and gt ripped on now for being cheap. Do sign him, get ripped on 2-3 years from now when you're paying a 37 year old 25 mil to not be good. Something like, "How dumb could you be to pay a 34 year old 25 mil into his age 37/38 seasons, haven't you seen how this turns out all over the league over and over". Either way, the know it all fans will have been right.

 

IMO, the not having the DH is a very very important aspect of this for the Brewers or any NL team. and yet another example of how dumb it is to have different rules for each league.

 

First Bold: just turned 34 and will be entire 2020 season.

 

2nd Bold/italic: 2018 and the injuries would be a reason why. Maybe JD didn't want to sign a contract longer than 1year with a prove it season to build on his FA value.

 

3rd Bold/Italic/Underline: He has 2 years with injury history. 2017 a Calf strain. 2018 a Deadarm IL stint and then calf strain returning. 2 is fewer than a few years. This isn't a Ryan Braun type injury history where thumb/back/intercoastals/groin etc as alarms to further injury concerns. This isn't a collection from 3 or 5 years ago to go with the injuries in 2018. This is a Calf strain. And deadarm to start a season after returning from said calf strain initial injury. He's a year removed from the strained calf. That is not an injury that I'd be concerned with being a constant nagging injury for him and returning. Pretty much the next injury he will incur to keep him out of games, will be the first time this injury happened to him.

 

62% of his career self is all that needs to be accomplished to make the value of the contract. He can miss some major time and be worth every penny to this contract.

 

Okey dokey. You don't think a guy being injured for a couple straight years around age 32ish is a reason for concern and that 34 is not old (for a baseball player). Carry on.

[brewcrewdue80]

If anything, you'd think having two prime examples of that on the roster would make people realize the hesitation management has on wading into those waters. But, I guess not so for everyone.

 

Also, have to believe they're at least trying to concoct a way to resign Yelich so have to at least try to plan for that down the line.

 

Yelich has a longer list of injury history and will be 31 moving forward from his current contract. So why is Donaldson's bump in the road and age a concern, but not Yelich's? Yelich's best season to War sits 3rd for Donaldson.

[adambr2]

If anything, you'd think having two prime examples of that on the roster would make people realize the hesitation management has on wading into those waters. But, I guess not so for everyone.

 

Also, have to believe they're at least trying to concoct a way to resign Yelich so have to at least try to plan for that down the line.

 

Well, Braun is not a great comparable as he had 5 years remaining on his deal at the time he signed an additional 5/105. That was simply a really early extension, nothing to do with free agency.

 

Cain was fantastic in 2018 and serviceable in 2019. Serviceable is probably all we can expect going forward, but I don't think he's going to end up as a bad value at 5/80. The reality is most of the value of these is going to be in early years, but if you give Donaldson 4/92 and he is a 6 WAR player for 2 years you are going to have 2 really good shots to finally break through and win a World Series. I don't think anyone expects Donaldson to perform at his current level for 4 years but that really isn't the point. Everyone knows you're going to pay for these on the back end.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If anything, you'd think having two prime examples of that on the roster would make people realize the hesitation management has on wading into those waters. But, I guess not so for everyone.

 

Also, have to believe they're at least trying to concoct a way to resign Yelich so have to at least try to plan for that down the line.

 

Yelich has a longer list of injury history and will be 31 moving forward from his current contract. So why is Donaldson's bump in the road and age a concern, but not Yelich's? Yelich's best season to War sits 3rd for Donaldson.

 

Because 3 years makes a huge difference when handing out long-term deals. To put it in perspective, Donaldson is only two years younger than Ryan Braun, who despite continuing to put up solid numbers, most everyone considers over the hill.

[tmwiese55]

If anything, you'd think having two prime examples of that on the roster would make people realize the hesitation management has on wading into those waters. But, I guess not so for everyone.

 

Also, have to believe they're at least trying to concoct a way to resign Yelich so have to at least try to plan for that down the line.

 

Yelich has a longer list of injury history and will be 31 moving forward from his current contract. So why is Donaldson's bump in the road and age a concern, but not Yelich's? Yelich's best season to War sits 3rd for Donaldson.

 

OK. So Yelich just played basically 4 straight full seasons outside of missing the last few weeks. Granted, it's lucky timing to have the injury happen at the end so he barely missed time. But that and being age 31 instead of 34 are drastically different, if you don't agree then so be it but it's seems fairly clear to me.

 

Now, how about this scenario. We buyout a couple years of FA from Yeli and he hits FA at age 33. But he essentially is injured the two previous seasons leading up to that age 33/34is FA. You still want to hand him a mega deal? Apparently you do and don't think 33/34 years old isn't a big enough flag, then adding two injury filled seasons prior to aren't flags then I guess you don't think anything is a flag. Sign everyone, big contracts to mid 30s players always turn out great. Who am I kidding.

[brewcrewdue80]

Other GMs didn't do it because he's 34 and they expect a decline. It's that simple. For a guy who's supposedly such a lock, why were no teams willing to go beyond 1 year for him last year. He's getting old and has been hurt off and on for a few years before staying healthy last year. There is a huge chance normal regression starts combined with increase injury based type regression at his age. Having the DH really helps mitigate some of that risk, and that's something MKE doesn't have.

 

This one has all the makings of a can't win for the team if you're MKE. Don't sign him and gt ripped on now for being cheap. Do sign him, get ripped on 2-3 years from now when you're paying a 37 year old 25 mil to not be good. Something like, "How dumb could you be to pay a 34 year old 25 mil into his age 37/38 seasons, haven't you seen how this turns out all over the league over and over". Either way, the know it all fans will have been right.

 

IMO, the not having the DH is a very very important aspect of this for the Brewers or any NL team. and yet another example of how dumb it is to have different rules for each league.

 

First Bold: just turned 34 and will be entire 2020 season.

 

2nd Bold/italic: 2018 and the injuries would be a reason why. Maybe JD didn't want to sign a contract longer than 1year with a prove it season to build on his FA value.

 

3rd Bold/Italic/Underline: He has 2 years with injury history. 2017 a Calf strain. 2018 a Deadarm IL stint and then calf strain returning. 2 is fewer than a few years. This isn't a Ryan Braun type injury history where thumb/back/intercoastals/groin etc as alarms to further injury concerns. This isn't a collection from 3 or 5 years ago to go with the injuries in 2018. This is a Calf strain. And deadarm to start a season after returning from said calf strain initial injury. He's a year removed from the strained calf. That is not an injury that I'd be concerned with being a constant nagging injury for him and returning. Pretty much the next injury he will incur to keep him out of games, will be the first time this injury happened to him.

 

62% of his career self is all that needs to be accomplished to make the value of the contract. He can miss some major time and be worth every penny to this contract.

 

Okey dokey. You don't think a guy being injured for a couple straight years around age 32ish is a reason for concern and that 34 is not old (for a baseball player). Carry on.

 

Calf. We're talking about a simple Calf injury that he is over a year's time removed from, and a full season's worth of games played without it returning. This is rehabbed and easily avoided from reoccurring by this stage. I wouldn't make this argument if he had one occurrence of this injury during his 2019 season. But by now enough time has passed without it coming back to make this a non-issue. Play this scenario out: 2017. Dr. How this injury occur? JD: I think it occured while overswinging or trying to leap on a defensive play. Dr.: Okay rest and these exercises to help your calf muscle. Don't try to come back too soon from this injury or overuse your calf muscle. 2018: Dr. So JD what brings you here? JD: I was overtraining my calves during the offseason in my workout program unlike what you told me. I thought making them stronger would help prevent the injury returning. Dr. Well, now you know better and what are we going to do? JD: The exercises you gave me in 2017, rest, and not overtraining the calves anymore.

JD in 2019: No calf strains.

[tmwiese55]

If anything, you'd think having two prime examples of that on the roster would make people realize the hesitation management has on wading into those waters. But, I guess not so for everyone.

 

Also, have to believe they're at least trying to concoct a way to resign Yelich so have to at least try to plan for that down the line.

 

Well, Braun is not a great comparable as he had 5 years remaining on his deal at the time he signed an additional 5/105. That was simply a really early extension, nothing to do with free agency.

 

Cain was fantastic in 2018 and serviceable in 2019. Serviceable is probably all we can expect going forward, but I don't think he's going to end up as a bad value at 5/80. The reality is most of the value of these is going to be in early years, but if you give Donaldson 4/92 and he is a 6 WAR player for 2 years you are going to have 2 really good shots to finally break through and win a World Series. I don't think anyone expects Donaldson to perform at his current level for 4 years but that really isn't the point. Everyone knows you're going to pay for these on the back end.

 

Of course the way Braun was signed was at all the same, never said it was. The example of a mid 30s player regressing before our eyes and not living up to a large contract is still very relevant. Main point, out of one side of the mouth fans are complaining about these two aging players' bad contract. out the other, they want to sign another aging player for even more money than either of them are being paid and at an older age. Of course it could turn out fine, could is the operative word. 'Likely' is a whole other one. It's just very tough to take that risk (especially if in the back of your head you're trying to plan for a Yeli 25-30 mil deal if things go well with him the next couple years).

[adambr2]

If anything, you'd think having two prime examples of that on the roster would make people realize the hesitation management has on wading into those waters. But, I guess not so for everyone.

 

Also, have to believe they're at least trying to concoct a way to resign Yelich so have to at least try to plan for that down the line.

 

Yelich has a longer list of injury history and will be 31 moving forward from his current contract. So why is Donaldson's bump in the road and age a concern, but not Yelich's? Yelich's best season to War sits 3rd for Donaldson.

 

Because 3 years makes a huge difference when handing out long-term deals. To put it in perspective, Donaldson is only two years younger than Ryan Braun, who despite continuing to put up solid numbers, most everyone considers over the hill.

 

Braun hasn't been in the same stratosphere as Donaldson value-wise since 2012. If Braun had only has one season under a 5 WAR in his last 7 seasons, we wouldn't be able to pick up his 2021 option fast enough despite his age.

 

In addition, you're not going to get Yelich on a 4 year extension at age 31. It would take at least 7 years, putting him at the same age as Donaldson when their respective contracts would expire. So there's no less risk there and arguably more.