Twins Sign Donaldson - Four Year/$92 Million

[brewmann04]

I tend to agree their no more big Fa out there for the Crew, and they find a reliever or two on the cheap before Spring Training.

[Brewcrewin07]

Bob Nightengale

@BNightengale

·

5m

The #Twins currently have a $121.8 million payroll for their 20 signed players, the largest in the AL Central.

[sveumrules]

Same cable deal basically.

 

Source for your info please?

 

I'm seeing about 40 million for the Twins...

 

https://www.twincities.com/2016/02/12/local-tv-deal-doesnt-hamper-twins-payroll-team-president-says/

 

...versus about 21 million for the Brewers...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/royals-close-to-new-tv-deal-with-fox-sports-kc

 

Or do you think those figures are basically the same?

20 million bucks is not a ton of money in a billion dollar sport but if you are saying the extra 750k in attendance doesn't close that gap so be it. Bottom line is they could have done that deal and unless Donaldson hates Milwaukee they chose not to. It's not because they can't afford it.

 

Twenty million isn't much compared to the billions generated by the sport as a whole, no, but it was around 14% of the league average payroll in 2019.

 

The Brewers may well have made that money (or even more) back with their extra attendance & I agree that they likely could afford to match or exceed those terms based on our limited knowledge of their financials.

 

That they chose not to seems to indicate they didn't believe doing so was in their best interest...time will ultimately tell if it was or was not.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I love seeing mid-market teams sign deals like this. So many of our competitors are burning up their buying power in 2021, 2022, etc. The Brewers are setting themselves up to take advantage.

 

This is the idea that's been running around in my head for a while.

 

Staying out of this free agent class is like going to the car lot, and just deciding you don't like what's on the lot at that particular time, or lot, and deciding you don't have to buy a car today, at that particular lot. It doesn't mean you are choosing not to spend money, you're just not spending it today, because nothing was the right fit or the right price.

 

I think a lot of fans want their teams to max their budgets EVERY SINGLE YEAR! and even though it means every now and then we'll have a year like this, where we fill the roster with a bunch of value deals, I don't want a GM who just spends spends spends spends to max the budget and makes fans happy with name moves. If he has the foresight to see the future deals that make sense in 2021 or 2022, then sit one off-season out and do your very best to still build a contender.

 

A lot of fans are going to be frustrated by that approach, but when you're operating with a less-than-RedSox budget, it's really not a bad way to be.

[brewcrewdue80]

If he plays to his career average in terms of missing between 1-2 seasons worth of games due to injury, how does it look then?

 

Mid 30s players dont age well. Injury prone mid 30s players fare even worse. Donaldson is a great player when healthy, but that doesnt happen consistently enough for me to want the brewers to give him that kind of coin over 4 seasons.

 

2017 missed 39 games to a calf strain. 2018. He missed 19games to shoulder inflammation. And later 89 games due to the Calf Strain returning.

 

2018 played full season of games as he did 2013-2016. So his injury history is a Calf Strain and a "Dead Arm" break. A total of 147games in 7 seasons. He's a full season removed from that calf strain keeping him out of games.

 

Any time he's been on the field he'd producing elite stuff in the 7WAR range. To his new contract price He needs to just produce 14.74 WAR to reach the value of the contract of 4 years. Add year 5 and it's 17.54 Break it down to yearly and that is just 3.69WAR years 1, 2, 3, and 4. Take it to 5years to 100mil it drops to 3.51 WAR.

 

Take a low year(age regression) of the 6WAR he was worth last season, he only needs to produce at 61.5% of that to reach the 3.69WAR or an average of 93games when compared to a full season of games.

4 years to be 62% of himself to make the contract worth it. If he has 2015 and 2016 seasons for 2020 and 2021 he'll have earned his contract and the Twins are free-rolling in the final 2/3years in the contract.

Top 10 in Baseball in Barrelled Balls. Top 5 in Exit Velocity. Top 5 in Hard Hit pct. Top 10 in BB% Are these signs of a hitter's ability diminishing? The Barrel, Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, and BB% were all career highs for him. Oh and I just seen he's actually taken a Pay Cut! from his previous 2 seasons of 23mil each.

 

I chimed in some White Sox signing, that the Twins basically dealt with all career highs from their batters as to why not compare them as a 100win in 2020. This signing just made it a fore gone conclusion they'll reach 100Wins barring serious injuries to multiple players.

I just seriously have problems that age is cause for regression and good contracts at the time turning out being bad when it comes from certain players doing it for years leading up to the contract above and beyond what you expect from a player that age at such a position. Nelson Cruz(on 2nd year of 2yr deal with Twins) just put up 4.3WAR for them at age 38 and has been above 4.3WAR 5 of last 6 seasons. Twins GM/Owner need to win whatever award is of the year after it because they identified the market inefficiency in teams shying away on older players that possess high ceilings still in their 30s. They'll have over 10WAR from those 2 over the hill players. For the Brewers that is only Christian Yelich last year and high enough to add Woodruff and or Moustakas to 10WAR combined. If Yelich were on the Twins last season you could mix 8 players to reach 10WAR or more. This is equivalent to Cain's deal who just needed 14WAR to cover the contract over 5years. 2.8WAR avg a year 23.3 WAR the previous 5 seasons. Or about 60% value to what he'd produced a year to reach the value of the contract. I rest my case.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm ok with them sitting this one out. But with just about every one of these signings, there's someone saying "it's not a smart gamble for a team like the Brewers to make." To some degree all of FA is a gamble. If we do ever want the Brewers to sign the big names, it's going to be a gamble. I mean, Cain was a gamble and it may not turn out to be such a good one if he's really falling apart.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm ok with them sitting this one out. But with just about every one of these signings, there's someone saying "it's not a smart gamble for a team like the Brewers to make." To some degree all of FA is a gamble. If we do ever want the Brewers to sign the big names, it's going to be a gamble. I mean, Cain was a gamble and it may not turn out to be such a good one if he's really falling apart.

 

 

Which is why the Brewers trading for a Yelich or a Narvaez almost always makes more sense than getting into the deep end of the pool in FA. I guess we'll see what happens in the next CBA and see if that changes the paradigm for teams like the Brewers and Royals and Rays.

[sveumrules]

Cain & Braun are our old guys getting seven figures. Those are our high dollar bets at the moment.

 

The way Stearns & company clearly seem to value flexibility I don't think we'll ever have more than one or two old guys getting seven figures on multi year deals rostered at any given time, barring massive changes to the CBA.

[NYChez]

The Twins needed to make a splash to satisfy their fan base more than the Brewers needed to.

 

The Brewers have some built-up capital in that area due to the Sabathia, Greinke, Yelich, Moose, and Grandal transactions over the past 12 years.

[Eye Black]

I have a feeling these GM's know how the market is going to play more than we fans do. I think if anything, Stearns may have had a few trades that he anticipated playing out that didn't work out, and that left him filling holes with guys like Sogard and Gyorko. I could be wrong..... who knows.

I do still have an inkling that there is a pretty big move in store yet for the Brewers, though.

 

I go back and forth between similar thoughts to both of these (and think both could be true). Multiple times this off-season David Stearns has made reference to having good discussions about trade options, last month mentioning they had trade discussions regarding the corner infield spots, and more recently indicating that trades were the most likely the way the Brewers would further upgrade the roster this off-season. As others have pointed out, when he made the comment about trades being the most likely scenario for upgrading the roster for the remainder of the off-season he had to have already been aware they were on the verge of two more free agent signings (Morrison and Gyorko).

 

Until we reach Spring Training I am going to continue to believe they are working on meaningful roster upgrade(s) via trade. It’s hard to really assess the off-season moves when we have such an incomplete picture of how things have transpired behind the scenes, but I do believe they realize they are in the zone where every bit of improvement to the roster now is significant towards their status as playoff contenders.

[Ennder]

Bob Nightengale

@BNightengale

·

5m

The #Twins currently have a $121.8 million payroll for their 20 signed players, the largest in the AL Central.

 

Typical Nightengale nonsense. All of the other teams in the central are in a rebuild, coming out of a rebuild or are trying to cut payroll. Of course they have the highest payroll.

 

I think this deal makes sense for the Twins. The AL central was just awful last year, the Indians are trying to retool things a bit. This is a move they are hoping can get them over the hump and actually go deep into the playoffs instead of just losing right away like the last 2 seasons.

 

There is almost no way this deal brings back value straight up, but once you get into the playoffs the value of wins goes way up so it could be worth it to the team.

[adambr2]

Castellanos and Ozuna are probably the only *big* names left, and lower level big names at that. I highly doubt we're in the market for either after signing Garcia.

 

Unfortunately, I think what we got is probably what we got. Not only are the big names off the board but we're simply running out of roster space. Maybe a minor trade or two. Unless we are trading big MLB names like Hader or Hiura away we don't have the trade capital for a major acquisition.

[pacopete4]

Another deal I am good with not having the Brewers be a part of. With having Cain and Braun already in these types of deals, I just don't think you can lock up that many mid-30 guys.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Castellanos and Ozuna are probably the only *big* names left, and lower level big names at that. I highly doubt we're in the market for either after signing Garcia.

 

Unfortunately, I think what we got is probably what we got. Not only are the big names off the board but we're simply running out of roster space. Maybe a minor trade or two. Unless we are trading big MLB names like Hader or Hiura away we don't have the trade capital for a major acquisition.

 

If the Brewers believe that the DH will be adopted at some point in the next few years, and if Castellanos continues to languish on the open market, I could potentially see the Brewers jumping into that fray. I think they could basically hide him on defense this year through getting innings at 3B, 1B and the corner OF, and somewhat mitigate his poor defense through shifts and late-game sub-outs. Not probable, but that would be an extremely potent bat to add to this lineup.

 

I also think it's likely that Arcia eventually gets traded, either for a reliever, or an overpriced LHH 3B. Sogard and Gyorko can play SS, as can Rodriguez and Matthias.

[3and2Fastball]

When the Brewers signed Jedd Gyorko, we pretty knew the Brewers weren’t gonna sign Josh Donaldson.

 

Oh how I wish that could be in blue.

[MrTPlush]

Another deal I am good with not having the Brewers be a part of. With having Cain and Braun already in these types of deals, I just don't think you can lock up that many mid-30 guys.

 

Yah, something tells me we will be quite happy we didn't spend this much on Donaldson. We signed Cain, I wouldn't expect another old player on the roster at the same time.

[sveumrules]

When the Brewers signed Jedd Gyorko, we pretty knew the Brewers weren’t gonna sign Josh Donaldson.

 

Oh how I wish that could be in blue.

 

At the very beginning of the offseason before any moves had even been made, we pretty much knew the Brewers weren't gonna sign Josh Donaldson.

[sveumrules]

If the Twins get 500 games & 10 WAR out of the deal, I think they'll be happy. Anything more than that is gravy.

 

FanGraphs write up on the deal included Donaldson's four year ZIPS projection...

 

"Projection-wise, ZiPS forecasts a steep fall-off from Donaldson’s age-34 to age-37 seasons, but just a hair under 10 WAR for the four guaranteed years — which is to say that this contract isn’t likely to be a bargain, but it should easily be worth the money on the front end, if not the back."

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/josh-donaldson-upgrades-already-potent-twins-lineup/

[Brewcrewin07]

To me, saying you are okay with the Brewers not signing Donaldson is like saying you don't care if they make themselves better or not. He most certainly would have...make ZERO mistake about that.

[wallus]

To me, saying you are okay with the Brewers not signing Donaldson is like saying you don't care if they make themselves better or not. He most certainly would have...make ZERO mistake about that.

 

If this next season were the last ever to be played, sure. However, the future is always important as well.

[sveumrules]

To me, saying you are okay with the Brewers not signing Donaldson is like saying you don't care if they make themselves better or not. He most certainly would have...make ZERO mistake about that.

 

Numerous posters stated the same thing with regards to the Cubs signing Kimbrel last season...

 

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=38553&hilit=Kimbrel

 

Arrested Developement Narrator: "He did not make them better."

[RollieTime]

I love seeing mid-market teams sign deals like this. So many of our competitors are burning up their buying power in 2021, 2022, etc. The Brewers are setting themselves up to take advantage.

 

This is the idea that's been running around in my head for a while.

 

Staying out of this free agent class is like going to the car lot, and just deciding you don't like what's on the lot at that particular time, or lot, and deciding you don't have to buy a car today, at that particular lot. It doesn't mean you are choosing not to spend money, you're just not spending it today, because nothing was the right fit or the right price.

 

I think a lot of fans want their teams to max their budgets EVERY SINGLE YEAR! and even though it means every now and then we'll have a year like this, where we fill the roster with a bunch of value deals, I don't want a GM who just spends spends spends spends to max the budget and makes fans happy with name moves. If he has the foresight to see the future deals that make sense in 2021 or 2022, then sit one off-season out and do your very best to still build a contender.

 

A lot of fans are going to be frustrated by that approach, but when you're operating with a less-than-RedSox budget, it's really not a bad way to be.

 

This is where I am as well. The Brewers are setting themselves up nicely for next offseason when other teams won’t have the buying power or aren’t going to hand out another large contract multiple season in a row.

 

DJ LeMahieu, JT Realmuto, Justin Turner, George Springer, Marcus Semien, Yuli Gurriel, Mookie Betts, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, Masahiro Tanaka, Marcus Stroman. With that many good to great talents on the market, I see no reason the Brewers couldn’t land one of these guys, maybe even two like last offseason. Especially with Braun’s money coming off the books. And most likely somebody like Knebel’s money as well.

 

Some of these guys are older veteran options, but if Turner, Gurriel, LeMahieu and Brantley continue to be great, I wouldn’t mind them on a nice one or two year deal. Even someone like George Springer could be in play for us since we could be looking at $50-$60 million free again next offseason. Isn’t it at least reasonable to do something like bring in Turner on a 1/$18 million deal, Springer on something like 5/$130 million, and still have $15-$20 million to play with? I don’t see why not.

 

We could realistically be in play for anybody next offseason outside of Betts. But he’s going to get $200+ million from somebody and take them out of the sweepstakes for the other guys.

 

I feel like some fail to realize that if Donaldson is signed now, Donaldson, Cain, and Yelich will be our core for the foreseeable future, two of those guys getting into their LATE 30’s, with them all receiving $55 million or so combined. Cain isn’t exactly a big bat either and is making quite a bit of cash. And this would all but eliminate us from making additional significant acquisition signings during this window. In my opinion, Donaldson is not the guy to cap yourself financially on during this Yelich window.

 

Stearns and Attanasio are always looking at the future. I am sure Stearns knows who is in the free agent pool next offseason. Stearns could have his eye on some targets next offseason already. With what we saw this offseason for the signings and hearing about us linked to Rendon, and prior significant signings of Cain, Grandal, and Moose and Garcia to an extent, I am confident we are players on these type of players and will not be surprised to see us land one or two of the guys listed above next offseason. We are undoubtedly setting ourselves up to make that a real possibility in 2021.

[Brewcrewin07]

I love seeing mid-market teams sign deals like this. So many of our competitors are burning up their buying power in 2021, 2022, etc. The Brewers are setting themselves up to take advantage.

 

This is the idea that's been running around in my head for a while.

 

Staying out of this free agent class is like going to the car lot, and just deciding you don't like what's on the lot at that particular time, or lot, and deciding you don't have to buy a car today, at that particular lot. It doesn't mean you are choosing not to spend money, you're just not spending it today, because nothing was the right fit or the right price.

 

I think a lot of fans want their teams to max their budgets EVERY SINGLE YEAR! and even though it means every now and then we'll have a year like this, where we fill the roster with a bunch of value deals, I don't want a GM who just spends spends spends spends to max the budget and makes fans happy with name moves. If he has the foresight to see the future deals that make sense in 2021 or 2022, then sit one off-season out and do your very best to still build a contender.

 

A lot of fans are going to be frustrated by that approach, but when you're operating with a less-than-RedSox budget, it's really not a bad way to be.

 

This is where I am as well. The Brewers are setting themselves up nicely for next offseason when other teams won’t have the buying power or aren’t going to hand out another large contract multiple season in a row.

 

DJ LeMahieu, JT Realmuto, Justin Turner, George Springer, Marcus Semien, Yuli Gurriel, Mookie Betts, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, Masahiro Tanaka, Marcus Stroman. With that many good to great talents on the market, I see no reason the Brewers couldn’t land one of these guys, maybe even two like last offseason. Especially with Braun’s money coming off the books. And most likely somebody like Knebel’s money as well.

 

Some of these guys are older veteran options, but if Turner, Gurriel, LeMahieu and Brantley continue to be great, I wouldn’t mind them on a nice one or two year deal. Even someone like George Springer could be in play for us since we could be looking at $50-$60 million free again next offseason. Isn’t it at least reasonable to do something like bring in Turner on a 1/$18 million deal, Springer on something like 5/$130 million, and still have $15-$20 million to play with? I don’t see why not.

 

We could realistically be in play for anybody next offseason outside of Betts. But he’s going to get $200+ million from somebody and take them out of the sweepstakes for the other guys.

 

I feel like some fail to realize that if Donaldson is signed now, Donaldson, Cain, and Yelich will be our core for the foreseeable future, two of those guys getting into their LATE 30’s, with them all receiving $55 million or so combined. Cain isn’t exactly a big bat either and is making quite a bit of cash. And this would all but eliminate us from making additional significant acquisition signings during this window. In my opinion, Donaldson is not the guy to cap yourself financially on during this Yelich window.

 

Stearns and Attanasio are always looking at the future. I am sure Stearns knows who is in the free agent pool next offseason. Stearns could have his eye on some targets next offseason already. With what we saw this offseason for the signings and hearing about us linked to Rendon, and prior significant signings of Cain, Grandal, and Moose and Garcia to an extent, I am confident we are players on these type of players and will not be surprised to see us land one or two of the guys listed above next offseason. We are undoubtedly setting ourselves up to make that a real possibility in 2021.

 

With all due respect, I don't consider guys like Moose and Grandal who were only around for a year "big" Free agent signings. Big in name, yes, big in $$ for one year, I guess so. To me(and it's me personally) "big" FA signings are guys you sign for 4-5 years and they are part of your core going forward. Cain was a "big" FA signing. The problem is, the Brewers will probably only have one of these types every 3-4 years. The rest will be cheaper one year guys or "filler" and "hope" type of guys, like we see this year.

[RollieTime]

Also with people upset about the Twins being able to do this and the Brewers “not” being able to, Stearns just didn’t find it smart to give an already 34 year old almost $100 million. I’m glad he didn’t see the value in it and hand out one of the largest contracts in history for a player that old.

 

The Twins also have the DH and can throw Donaldson on that the last 3 years of the deal if they need to. They have Cruz right now, but his contract is up after this season. In the future, they can throw him in as the DH 2-3 times per week to keep him healthy. The Brewers don’t have that luxury. And giving that large of a contract and “hoping” for the DH to come is pretty risky.

[bigredrobbo]

 

With all due respect, I don't consider guys like Moose and Grandal who were only around for a year "big" Free agent signings. Big in name, yes, big in $$ for one year, I guess so. To me(and it's me personally) "big" FA signings are guys you sign for 4-5 years and they are part of your core going forward. Cain was a "big" FA signing. The problem is, the Brewers will probably only have one of these types every 3-4 years. The rest will be cheaper one year guys or "filler" and "hope" type of guys, like we see this year.

 

Which makes your disappointment at the Crew not landing Donaldson really about your expectations that we WOULD sign him. I'm disappointed ScarJo never picked up the phone before she started dating Colin Jost. Again, that's on me, it wasn't gonna happen!