Twins Sign Donaldson - Four Year/$92 Million

[mattyo]

$92 million over 4 years. Sad that the Brewers couldn’t top that.

 

Huge overpay.... even if he is somewhat above avg....

 

Even if he just plays to his career average it would be anything but an overpay

[CheezWizHed]

Of course, the Brewers had 2,923,333 in attendance last year and the Twins had 2,294,152. That isn't the sole revenue impact to the "market", but its a big one.

 

Of course, they would've drawn as many if they had a roof. April games are horrible...as are the rain-outs.

[Matty V]

And now Kris Bryant will be traded to the Braves.

[brewcrewdue80]

With a 5th year option at 16mil. If you pick up that option its 4years 84mil. 5th year to 100mil.you buyout the option at 8mil. Its a great deal for Minnesota. Donaldson is going to make a lot of teams regret not paying him. Milw especially.

 

21mil a year. Followed with either 8 or 16 yr 5. Brutal you couldnt do that. 6WAR player for 21mil. Most needed position to fill with that quality.

This is not the signing where I go, Yeah glad we didnt sign him to that much. We should have exceeded that offer. 5/100 w/o option easily.

 

Im shocked this is what he's getting.

[adambr2]

You could say that about almost any pro sports team. I doubt Marshfield and Appleton are really raising the bottom line too much.

 

Well, Wisconsin has a higher population than Minnesota, so...

 

My point was pretty much simply that the Brewers aren't at an economic disadvantage compared to the Twins based on their metro area sizes.

[sveumrules]

You could say that about almost any pro sports team. I doubt Marshfield and Appleton are really raising the bottom line too much.

 

Well, Wisconsin has a higher population than Minnesota, so...

 

My point was pretty much simply that the Brewers aren't at an economic disadvantage compared to the Twins based on their metro area sizes.

 

TV market is 1.697 million households for MPLS vs 837,000 for MKE, so they've got us beat there too.

 

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/

[Fear The Chorizo]

You could say that about almost any pro sports team. I doubt Marshfield and Appleton are really raising the bottom line too much.

 

Well, Wisconsin has a higher population than Minnesota, so...

 

My point was pretty much simply that the Brewers aren't at an economic disadvantage compared to the Twins based on their metro area sizes.

 

But a chunk of western WI is considered in the twins' market. The twins' tv market is actually pretty large considering they also go into the dakotas. It's not just about metro are size. And a chunk of southern wi also falls into the Chicagoland team markets...

 

The twins are on an island with alot of geography between them and the next closes mlb team. The brewers are 90 miles away from the 3rd largest city in the country that happens to have 2 big market mlb teams.

[adambr2]

That's all fine and fair points, but I just don't see how it is really relevant to Donaldson. It would be a lot more relevant if the Twins had just paid $235M for Anthony Rendon.

 

We don't need to try to rationalize that the Twins could afford 4/92 for Josh Donaldson and we couldn't. I think we can almost all agree that we could have afforded to pay that contract.

[DuWayne Steurer]

That's all fine and fair points, but I just don't see how it is really relevant to Donaldson. It would be a lot more relevant if the Twins had just paid $235M for Anthony Rendon.

 

We don't need to try to rationalize that the Twins could afford 4/92 for Josh Donaldson and we couldn't. I think we can almost all agree that we could have afforded to pay that contract.

 

Agree they could have. My argument is the Brewers shouldn't.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

That's all fine and fair points, but I just don't see how it is really relevant to Donaldson. It would be a lot more relevant if the Twins had just paid $235M for Anthony Rendon.

 

We don't need to try to rationalize that the Twins could afford 4/92 for Josh Donaldson and we couldn't. I think we can almost all agree that we could have afforded to pay that contract.

 

Agree they could have. My argument is the Brewers shouldn't.

 

As much as my heart would have loved a guy like Donaldson, you gotta think with your head when handing out that kind of money. Donaldson is 34, and hasn't exactly been injury-free throughout his career.

 

I do still have an inkling that there is a pretty big move in store yet for the Brewers, though.

[Bulldogboy]

Nice that the Twins can afford a stud on a fair price tag. They drew 2.2 million last year. Crew drew 2.9 million. Same cable deal basically. Mark A must be socking it away for a rainy day. Oh well who cares about winning. In this market Packers are back and Bucks look to be all in. Mediocrity will not be rewarded.

[Bulldogboy]

$92 million over 4 years. Sad that the Brewers couldn’t top that.

 

Huge overpay.... even if he is somewhat above avg....

 

Even if he just plays to his career average it would be anything but an overpay

This is right on. There will likely be a dh in the NL by the time this deal is done so he could just rake.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think there's a big move coming. I'm thinking they'll add some pitching but it will be the typical value buy. I think this contract would have been ok. It'd be nice for 2 years and then we'd probably spend the last one or two counting it down and watching him fall apart. Wouldn't have loved it, wouldn't have hated it.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If he plays to his career average in terms of missing between 1-2 seasons worth of games due to injury, how does it look then?

 

Mid 30s players dont age well. Injury prone mid 30s players fare even worse. Donaldson is a great player when healthy, but that doesnt happen consistently enough for me to want the brewers to give him that kind of coin over 4 seasons.

[DuWayne Steurer]

This is last year in the AL and NL.

 

The top 10 AL position players by WAR, and age --

 

1) Bregman 8.4 age 25

2) Trout 8.3 age 27

3) Semien 8.1 age 28

4) Betts 6.8 age 25

5) Chapman 6.7 age 26

6) Springer 6.2 age 29

7.) Lemehieau 6.0 age 30

8.) Polanco 5.7 age 25

9.) Judge 5.4 age 27

10.) Devers 5.3 age 22

 

The oldest guy in that group is 30

 

NL

 

1. Bellinger • LAD 9.0 Age 23

2. Yelich • MIL 7.1 Age 27

3. Marte • ARI 6.9 Age 25

4. Story • COL 6.4 Age 26

5. Rendon • WSN 6.3 Age 29

6. Donaldson • ATL 6.1 Age 33

7. Muncy • LAD 5.7 Age 28

8 Arenado • COL 5.7 Age 28

9. Acuna • ATL 5.5 Age 21

10. Alonso • NYM 5.0 Age 25

 

Exactly 2 guys age 30 or older put up a 5.0 WAR or better. Donaldson was one of them. Going forward, as he ages in to his mid and late 30's, it's not a smart gamble for a team like the Brewers to expect that kind of production going forward at that price. Donaldson missed a season's worth of games between '17 and '18, and he's going to be 34. I'm glad the dude got paid. I think the CBA screwed good dudes like this that didn't come up until their mid to late 20's. I'm just glad it's not the Brewers. when he's 37 and a 1.5 - 2.0 WAR player, 23 mil per won't look as good.

[sveumrules]

Same cable deal basically.

 

Source for your info please?

 

I'm seeing about 40 million for the Twins...

 

https://www.twincities.com/2016/02/12/local-tv-deal-doesnt-hamper-twins-payroll-team-president-says/

 

...versus about 21 million for the Brewers...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/royals-close-to-new-tv-deal-with-fox-sports-kc

 

Or do you think those figures are basically the same?

[NYChez]

If Stearns knew how the rest of the free agent market would work out, I think he signs Moose for the deal he got with Cincy.

[DuWayne Steurer]

If Stearns knew how the rest of the free agent market would work out, I think he signs Moose for the deal he got with Cincy.

 

 

I have a feeling these GM's know how the market is going to play more than we fans do. I think if anything, Stearns may have had a few trades that he anticipated playing out that didn't work out, and that left him filling holes with guys like Sogard and Gyorko. I could be wrong..... who knows.

[Lathund]

I think JD will age pretty well (The statcast data really likes him, with career highs in exit velocity, barrels, hard hit % in 2019), but that's a lot of money to give to someone who will turn 35 during the first of those 4 guaranteed years. I think this is a deal that will end up being pretty decent value for the Twins in a vacuum, but also too big of a deal (As in % of what their likely payroll will be) to make sense for a team like the Twins (or Brewers for that matter). He needs to be even better than he has any realistic chance of being to truly be worth spending almost 20% of your payroll on. I, perhaps surprisingly, still like this better than most of the big FA contracts signed so far this winter, even if on an irrational basis.

[jerichoholicninja]

If he plays to his career average in terms of missing between 1-2 seasons worth of games due to injury, how does it look then?

 

Mid 30s players dont age well. Injury prone mid 30s players fare even worse. Donaldson is a great player when healthy, but that doesnt happen consistently enough for me to want the brewers to give him that kind of coin over 4 seasons.

 

He's played 155 games or more in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2019. His age is a legitimate concern but his injury history is way overblown for whatever reason.

[sveumrules]

If he plays to his career average in terms of missing between 1-2 seasons worth of games due to injury, how does it look then?

 

Mid 30s players dont age well. Injury prone mid 30s players fare even worse. Donaldson is a great player when healthy, but that doesnt happen consistently enough for me to want the brewers to give him that kind of coin over 4 seasons.

 

He's played 155 games or more in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2019. His age is a legitimate concern but his injury history is way overblown for whatever reason.

 

From 2013-16, at ages 27-30, he was one of the more durable players in baseball.

 

From 2017-19, at ages 31-33, he was less so. Playing 113, 52 & 155.

 

I would guess his games played totals from 34-37 will more resemble his last three seasons than the four before that, though the DH should help mitigate things somewhat.

 

If the Twins get 500 games & 10 WAR out of the deal, I think they'll be happy. Anything more than that is gravy.

[Bulldogboy]

Same cable deal basically.

 

Source for your info please?

 

I'm seeing about 40 million for the Twins...

 

https://www.twincities.com/2016/02/12/local-tv-deal-doesnt-hamper-twins-payroll-team-president-says/

 

...versus about 21 million for the Brewers...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/royals-close-to-new-tv-deal-with-fox-sports-kc

 

Or do you think those figures are basically the same?

20 million bucks is not a ton of money in a billion dollar sport but if you are saying the extra 750k in attendance doesn't close that gap so be it. Bottom line is they could have done that deal and unless Donaldson hates Milwaukee they chose not to. It's not because they can't afford it.

[owbc]

I love seeing mid-market teams sign deals like this. So many of our competitors are burning up their buying power in 2021, 2022, etc. The Brewers are setting themselves up to take advantage.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

If Stearns knew how the rest of the free agent market would work out, I think he signs Moose for the deal he got with Cincy.

 

 

I have a feeling these GM's know how the market is going to play more than we fans do. I think if anything, Stearns may have had a few trades that he anticipated playing out that didn't work out, and that left him filling holes with guys like Sogard and Gyorko. I could be wrong..... who knows.

 

Stearns is on the record saying he knew their own upcoming free agents were pricing themselves out of the teams' range while the Brewers were still playing regular season games last year. So yes I think he did know how the market was going to play out and no I do not think he wanted any part of the deal Moose got with Cincinnati.

[PaulLeoMolitor]

Something tells me the Twins were the only team willing to go 4+ years. Otherwise, based on everything I’ve read, I really believe he’d be with the Braves or Nationals right now. To me, the bottom line is nobody else felt he was worth what the Twins gave him.