NFC Conference Championship: Packers @ 49ers Sunday, Jan 19th, 5:40PM

[HarveysWBs]

Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis 42, Jace Sternberger 28, Jimmy Graham 24, Robert Tonyan 21

I was shocked when I saw Sternberger’s snap counts yesterday. I’d have to go back and watch to see for myself, but I read a description of his blocking in this game to the effect that he was a willing, albeit not a dominating blocker.

 

Maybe it’s simply a matter of him actually being a better run blocking TE than Graham and Tonyan (sad indictment of both of those guys, although not shocking in Graham’s case). Maybe they used Sternberger extensively as a fullback—though I don’t remember that, again I’d have to go watch. And maybe Sternberger has really improved in that area, which was a considerable weakness coming into the season.

 

I know that’s a lot of maybes, but considering how much this offense is designed around disguise and subterfuge, I can’t help but think they’re putting things on film for the 49ers so our plays aren’t as recognizable pre-snap. And maybe this presages an imminent uptick in Sternberger’s usage as a receiver, which would be interesting. Just a few plays that look like he’s out there blocking like yesterday and then breaks into a route could lead to a few key gains. Never know, but it’s some fascinating chess.

[stalton]

Vitale was out so that probably affected their packages at least.

[OldHeidelberg]

Rodgers looked pretty good yesterday, he has to know he isn't going to get to too many more conference championship games. To me that is our biggest hope, if he can vastly outplay Jimmy G we have a shot. I am optimistic, not predicting a win, just a feeling we are due and we have the more experienced QB. I feel much better than Atlanta NFCC, maybe about the same as Seattle. I think we have a lot more going for us than many give us credit for, not the least of which is our ability to close out the close games and that has been a team effort.

[CheezWizHed]

Dear Mr. Rodgers,

 

Please remember how the San Fransisco 49ers passed on you with the 1st pick in the draft. Now is the time to get your payback.

 

Thanks,

The Fans

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Rodgers looked pretty good yesterday, he has to know he isn't going to get to too many more conference championship games. To me that is our biggest hope, if he can vastly outplay Jimmy G we have a shot. I am optimistic, not predicting a win, just a feeling we are due and we have the more experienced QB. I feel much better than Atlanta NFCC, maybe about the same as Seattle. I think we have a lot more going for us than many give us credit for, not the least of which is our ability to close out the close games and that has been a team effort.

 

This is where I am. It takes one vintage performance and this is a game. If we get that, one interception could end up being the difference. I'm optimistic about the game and I don't know why. It just sort of feels like a perfect storm. We have a defense that's been playing pretty well, aging vet QB that might be peaking at just the right time, and nobody is giving them a chance. And the storyline of them passing on Rodgers in the draft. Remembers me of the 1995 divisional game where no one gave the Packers any shot at they kicked them in the mouth early and won by 10.

 

I know Rodgers has never really struggled with confidence but that "We'll see you later on" clip pumped me up.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Worth nothing that Rodgers has been pretty terrible in all of those NFCCGs including the win. One of the INTs against Seattle should have been a free play, but he's due to play a good game.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Worth nothing that Rodgers has been pretty terrible in all of those NFCCGs including the win. One of the INTs against Seattle should have been a free play, but he's due to play a good game.

 

True - but that Bears NFC title game started with them going up and down the field to get a 14-0 lead, watched Cutler get injured, and suddenly the offensive game plan was don't do something stupid to protect the lead and got uber conservative. I do remember Rodgers throwing a red zone pick to Urlacher and then making a great play himself just to prevent a return TD. I don't really count the ATL NFC title game as Rodgers playing poorly - their roster was a skeleton and the Packers' 1st two offensive possessions led to a missed FG and a fumble inside the ATL 10 - the Packers' defense wasn't going to stop prime Julio Jones and the rout was on.

 

I get the feeling the Packers are going to put a ton of the gameplan on Rodgers' shoulders this Sunday with a 'spread em out' approach. If he plays well they've got a shot, if he doesn't it will feel like one of those semi-competitive games where they are always struggling to get the game down to a 1 score deficit before their defense wears down and the floodgates open with a few big plays sometime in the 2nd half.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

That's kind of the most likely outcome in my head. One where it's technically in reach, but they're down like 8 the entire game and just never really pose a threat.

[Fear The Chorizo]

That's kind of the most likely outcome in my head. One where it's technically in reach, but they're down like 8 the entire game and just never really pose a threat.

 

1st couple possessions on both sides of the ball are so key for this game - GB's road struggles consistently point to very slow starts offensively and digging themselves a hole. They found ways to come back and win games against poor teams, but if they get down big early against really good defenses they just don't have the offensive firepower to mount a huge comeback.

 

Getting a lead early coupled with a few defensive stops would be huge for GB.

[pitchleague]

I'm likely heading to Laughlin or Vegas on Friday or Saturday and was going to do my usual NFC championship bet when the Packers are playing. I usually bet the money line on the Packer opponent so then, no matter what happens, I win. Either I win some money or the Packers are going to the Super Bowl so that lost money was well worth it. 2015 when Seattle beat them (damn it, Bostick!!) I scored $200 from my $100 bet.

 

Well, plan might change this year. With San Francisco being overwhelming money line favorites of -350 or so (depending on the casino), I would net a whopping $25-30 instead. Not really worth the bet. And I'm not touching the points or the point spread.

 

Oh, well! Go Pack Go!

[stalton]

This year the Packers O/U was 6/10. With the caveat that I never really paid attention to the O/U all year but that seems off.

[GAME05]

I guess the one thing the Packers have going for them is that it's tough to beat a team twice in a row. They already played a game where they thought they had the best strategy to beat Kittle and their run game, so this time they'll get to try something else.

[FVBrewerFan]

Here's how I look at the game. The Niners are a better team, man for man. Also playing at home, so that's two advantages. So there's two ways the Packers can win the game. Game plan and execution.

 

On both sides of the ball they need to show things they haven't done, or haven't done very often. For example, in the Seahawks game they had Alexander blitz off the corner with a quick clean shot on Wilson. They need more of that vs the Niners. Corner blitzes and safety blitzes coming from everywhere, and vary the downs so it's unpredictable.

 

The other thing we saw vs the Seahawks was a lot of backfield action and creative plays to start the game. Once the scripted plays were done, we never saw that offense anymore even though it worked. Get back to more of that stuff scattered throughout the game. Turn the no huddle on and off constantly series by series. Different personnel groups on virtually every play, including the 2 RB set with Carson, 6 lineman, 5 wide, 3 TE. All of this at least forces the defense to think and be a bit more reactive.

 

I mentioned execution earlier. Obviously important for the players, but applies to coaches too. In a game like this, burning timeouts early, not using your challenges properly, decisions to go for it on 4th down...all those decisions will really matter. We'll need all o that to win, including Rodgers A game.

[stalton]

I mentioned execution earlier. Obviously important for the players, but applies to coaches too. In a game like this, burning timeouts early, not using your challenges properly, decisions to go for it on 4th down...all those decisions will really matter. We'll need all o that to win, including Rodgers A game.

 

 

 

You mean we shouldn't fake punt it on our own 30?

 

I agree it comes down to just as much playcalling and game plan as is actually running the plays.

[nodakfan17]

During Aaron Rodgers’s playoff tenure (17 games), the Packers are 1-6 when they give up 26 or more points and 9-1 when they give up fewer than 26 points.

[OldHeidelberg]

Was listening to some radio show last night and they were talking about how it doesn't matter that they are 7 point underdogs or that some people don't expect them to win, if they lose the narrative will be Rodgers can't get it done. That's fair, he hasn't been back in 9 years and is getting close to Favre territory. And it probably bothers Rodgers more than it did Favre as I think he does care about his place in football history. I heard him in an interview bring up that it would nice to have one of these at home but you still have to get it done if you want people to talk about you as one of the GOAT. Time to step up.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Was listening to some radio show last night and they were talking about how it doesn't matter that they are 7 point underdogs or that some people don't expect them to win, if they lose the narrative will be Rodgers can't get it done. That's fair, he hasn't been back in 9 years and is getting close to Favre territory. And it probably bothers Rodgers more than it did Favre as I think he does care about his place in football history. I heard him in an interview bring up that it would nice to have one of these at home but you still have to get it done if you want people to talk about you as one of the GOAT. Time to step up.

 

Whenever I hear Rodgers talk about wanting a game like this at home, I remind myself that he had every opportunity for one back in 2011 and that 15-1 team got smoked by the Giants at home in the divisional round. They also lost a home playoff game to the 49ers in a divisional round. His best postseason play has actually happened on the road, if he really wants to look at it compared to results at home playoff games.

[MrTPlush]

The narrative has never and will never be Rodgers not being able to get it done...at least not a widely accepted concept. The blame is usually placed on the team around him crumbling. I can really only think of two times where they lost and Rodgers didn't play good. One was the Cardinals game, but then again he put together an insane drive to cause OT. His defense then blew OT on the first play (I think). The other was the Seahawks game. Which again the defense flat out crumbled and had one of the biggest choke jobs in playoff history. I believe in that game the Packers essentially gave up one giant play in OT and Rodgers again did not get an opportunity. Rodgers still didn't play great in those games, but at crunch time his defense blew it and he never got a chance in OT.

 

I think Rodgers has three losses in the playoffs where his team gave up 40+ and there is one they gave up 37. That is over 50% of his losses.

 

I just don't think he is really comparable to someone like Favre, who at times, was terrible in playoff games and was good at being apart of the plays that lost games.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If memory serves the win would be the '16 game in Dallas and the loss is to Kap and the 49ers in '13.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah sorry but I'm not buying that that becomes the narrative. Maybe if the radio forces it hard enough. The narrative has always been that the defense sucks and that's the correct narrative. If they lose this weekend the narrative is that a far superior team knocked them out.

 

That he can't win it makes no sense. He's been an underdog in 3/4 of those games.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Was listening to some radio show last night and they were talking about how it doesn't matter that they are 7 point underdogs or that some people don't expect them to win, if they lose the narrative will be Rodgers can't get it done. That's fair, he hasn't been back in 9 years and is getting close to Favre territory. And it probably bothers Rodgers more than it did Favre as I think he does care about his place in football history. I heard him in an interview bring up that it would nice to have one of these at home but you still have to get it done if you want people to talk about you as one of the GOAT. Time to step up.

 

Whenever I hear Rodgers talk about wanting a game like this at home, I remind myself that he had every opportunity for one back in 2011 and that 15-1 team got smoked by the Giants at home in the divisional round. They also lost a home playoff game to the 49ers in a divisional round. His best postseason play has actually happened on the road, if he really wants to look at it compared to results at home playoff games.

 

No they didn't. They lost a home Wild Card game vs. the 12-4 Niners the year Rodgers missed half the season and they were 8-7-1. They did lose a road divisional game the prior year and gave up 45 points. They were not expected to win either game and the former was incredibly close especially when most had them getting blown out.

[OldHeidelberg]

Fair or not more than any other position in American pro sports QB's are judged on championships. PManning for all his stats was always criticized for falling short too often, Elway wasn't really all that great a QB but those late championships really elevated how people viewed his career. Brady has a bunch of lousy playoff games that they still won. We packer fans all know the circumstances around the losses but losing 3 conference championships is going to be talked about. Honestly if Rodgers has his A game going on Sunday this team is talented enough to beat the Niners, I don't think we are at as much of a talent disadvantage as that earlier loss makes it seem. The defense is as talented as anything we have had since 2010.

[homer]

There were so many games where he would lead them down to either tie the game or take the lead late and then the Packers would lose because Rodgers would never get the ball back.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I just genuinely don't see that being the perception. Most people remember Bostick Bosticking. I don't think anyone even remembers their game with Atlanta, they remember the rabbit he pulled from the hat the week before in Dallas.

 

Even in national press, I usually see comparison's between Brady's teams defensive ranking and Rodgers. The broad narrative really seems to be the Packers "wasting" Rodgers, not Rodgers coming up short.

[OldHeidelberg]

There were so many games where he would lead them down to either tie the game or take the lead late and then the Packers would lose because Rodgers would never get the ball back.

 

Stupid lousy overtime coin toss