NFC Conference Championship: Packers @ 49ers Sunday, Jan 19th, 5:40PM

[homer]

Pack +7 to open

[HarveysWBs]

Pack +7 to open

Then we will have our battle in the shade.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm all about that underdog action. If it goes south early on I won't be shocked and I can be pleasantly surprised by a good game.

 

I feel like they're better, and have a better shot, than they did in '16 going in Atlanta. Edge rushers and Aaron Rodgers, we have a chance. I'd give us about a 25% shot.

[adambr2]

Fun fact: in our last 5 NFC championship games, we have scored no less than 20 and no more than 23 points.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If we hit 20, things probably went well.

[nodakfan17]

This will be Rodgers’ 4th NFC Championship Game. All 4 on the road.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

And I think they were only favored once.

[MrTPlush]

I think this game goes a lot better than the first one..we won't have the bad luck and mistakes we had the first time. They can win this game if they play well. They don't need miracles and they don't need everything to go right. They do need to protect the QB and Rodgers needs to have accurate throws.

 

I thought the defense was pretty good yesterday until they let Wilson run all over them...then they got a bit gassed. Thankfully their next QB isn't that mobile.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

What's been lost in that box score is that the Packers defense really didn't play poorly in the first game. They were buried in a hole really early and it was at least a game for a half. It was only after they spend 80% of the game on the field that they really fell apart. They can't cough up the ball at the 5 on the opening drive.

 

Idk, it's fun to talk yourself into thinking they can win, but there something about Rodgers yesterday that makes you think there might be some magic going here. The receivers are just a massive problem though. They're going to take Adams out of the game and there is just nobody else there. I'm hoping they get Jones into the passing game a lot.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I thought the defense was pretty good yesterday until they let Wilson run all over them...then they got a bit gassed. Thankfully their next QB isn't that mobile.

 

They did play really well, almost could have been dominant had King caught that 1st half INT that went through his hands and the refs actually gave the Packers the ball on that fumble during Seattle's first possession. Their style of defense gets in trouble when teams keep them on the field too long - some of that is on the defense for not making a play to get off the field, but alot is also on the offense to keep the time of possession balance in GB's favor. At one point in the second half Seattle had the ball almost 20 minutes of gameclock time to GB's 4 - most of which the Packers ran up in their 1st possession after the half.

 

The first game in SF became a blowout at about the last 2-3 minutes of the first half, until then the defense was also playing really well. SF's first TD came right after a sack-fumble that started them at the GB 2 yard line. The defense gave up a couple field goals following SF drives with very short fields to make it 13-0, then GB promptly went 3 and out right before half and San Fran gashed them with a big run and that 40+ yard TD to Samuel right after Savage went out of the game with an injury. SF even got one more FG right before half because GB's offense gave it right back to the 49ers one more time.

 

The key to this game, IMO, is for the offense to find ways to sustain drives - even if they don't put up huge numbers and score 30, they need to stay on the field and make a few first downs so they are keeping balance with field position when they do have to punt. Keep their defense as rested as possible. Kittle had a very quiet game against Vikings in part because they didn't need to pass much - but MN also has great coverage guys at the LB and safety levels of their defense. Have to expect him to be much more involved in this game, so hopefully Pettine can come up with a couple coverage wrinkles that could try to fool Garapollo and generate a pick or two.

 

I also wonder if Sherman will shadow Adams wherever he goes after his huge game last night, or if he will stay at his left corner position and allow the Packers to move Adams to more favorable matchups.

[MrTPlush]

J.K. Scott better come to play. In the first half of the first meeting these were his punts:

 

41

38

41

38

32

33

 

None of these made it inside the 20 and the last one put them at the 48 with 24 seconds left to tack on another 3 points before half.

[Fear The Chorizo]

J.K. Scott better come to play. In the first half of the first meeting these were his punts:

 

41

38

41

38

32

33

 

None of these made it inside the 20 and the last one put them at the 48 with 24 seconds left to tack on another 3 points before half.

 

Yep - those numbers look much better if he's kicking from midfield, not from the shadow of his own goal line like he was during that first game. The fact none of those were anything close to pooch punch attempts shows how bad a game he had in late November there.

 

He had a pretty good game last night, and hopefully the offense doesn't bury itself inside the 10 too much Sunday where we don't need 55 yard punts angled out of bounds at will from Scott just to keep the 49ers starting drives deeper on their own side of the field.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think Adams is doing much of anything next week. That's all they need to stop. Somebody has to step up. Maybe they get Jones involved more, maybe Jimmy Graham has some geezer magic, maybe Allen Lazard steps up, but I feel pretty certain they will take Adams out of the game.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't think Adams is doing much of anything next week. That's all they need to stop. Somebody has to step up. Maybe they get Jones involved more, maybe Jimmy Graham has some geezer magic, maybe Allen Lazard steps up, but I feel pretty certain they will take Adams out of the game.

 

Sherman typically stays at left corner, that's just his style of play - I'd put a combo of MVS, Lazard, and Allison opposite Sherman and run a bunch of go routes or short breaking outs to essentially take Sherman out of the game. Moving Adams to the other side probably draws double coverage from the 49ers with a corner and safety, which would then leave 1 safety, a nickle corner, and either an extra DB or LBs for GB to try and pick on. If Rodgers can get a little bit of time I think there are opportunities for combo routes with Adams crossing the field to draw defenders and open up deep seam and corner routes for a slot receiver or TE to make some big plays. Guys like Lazard, Tonyan, Graham, and even Sternberger are going to need to step up. I'd also like to see Jones used in the passing game - not so much screens or checkdowns, but wheel routes and slants coming out of the backfield to try and get him in space moving forward.

 

San Fran's defense actually can be run on, as long as you don't try to get outside - their LBs and DE's are just too fast in pursuit. The best bet is to line up and try smashing them in the mouth with a power running game. The difficulty in that is it's tough to run both a power running game and spread passing attack with the same personnel groupings, and I think the way to beat S.F. is to either go full-on Tennessee Titan with a bellcow running back or spread them out to force them out of their base personnel. I don't think the Packers are good enough in the power run game, so I'd prefer they spread 'em out and hope Rodgers plays out of his mind.

[KeithStone53151]

San Fran's defense actually can be run on, as long as you don't try to get outside - their LBs and DE's are just too fast in pursuit. The best bet is to line up and try smashing them in the mouth with a power running game. The difficulty in that is it's tough to run both a power running game and spread passing attack with the same personnel groupings, and I think the way to beat S.F. is to either go full-on Tennessee Titan with a bellcow running back or spread them out to force them out of their base personnel. I don't think the Packers are good enough in the power run game, so I'd prefer they spread 'em out and hope Rodgers plays out of his mind.

 

I want to expand on this. Their LB/DE are incredibly fast, which also makes them really good at covering tight ends. So the idea of Jimmy Graham or Tonyan or Lewis having a big game are a bit wishful thinking. It's tough to know the best way to beat this defense, but I know we don't want to play them straight up with our normal style offense. If we want to play 2 and 3 TE like we tend to, we need to at least some of the time have all of the line up in a spread formation...and even have them split out wide sometimes with the WR in the slot. I like the idea of power running with Williams more than edge running with Jones. I definitely think we need our RB and TE helping in pass blocking, stuff like last game with Jones/Williams chipping Clowney before heading out on a short route is going to be critical.

 

Defensively, we need to take away Kittle. Overall their weapons are a bit underrated in my opinion. They are pretty solid across the board with weapons, but obviously Kittle is the best one and it would be better to force someone else to beat us.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

They need something to go wrong for SF to win. Jimmy has to send one the other way or something. They're just not going to be able to line up and beat them at smash mouth football. They just don't have the personnel. I'm gonna spend all week talking myself into us winning, but it's really hard to see it happening on paper.

[homer]

They need something to go wrong for SF to win. Jimmy has to send one the other way or something. They're just not going to be able to line up and beat them at smash mouth football. They just don't have the personnel. I'm gonna spend all week talking myself into us winning, but it's really hard to see it happening on paper.

 

Yeah I am not hopeful. But Jimmy hasn't been here before so that might be an X factor. Although I'm not all that worried about their offense really. I feel like our defense has really rounded into form the last 5 weeks or so.

[adambr2]

Jimmy G's running ability is almost nonexistent. So it will be nice not to have to worry about chasing him all over the field like we did with Wilson.

 

With that said, their top 2 receivers are pretty comparable to Seattle's and they have a George Kittle which Seattle doesn't -- that's a huge factor.

 

They also have a much better running game than Seattle. The scary part about watching the game on Saturday was that Minnesota knew they were going to run the ball on every single play and they just could not do a thing about it. If the offensive line of San Francisco is able to impose their will on the ground, we are in for a long day. If they can't, we have a chance.

 

If things go our way, the situation could be eerily similar to 2014-15 -- we were blown out in Seattle in the regular season, went back to Seattle about 1 TD dogs in the NFC championship game, and shocked everyone by controlling most of that game. Of course we all know the nightmare that happened in the end.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

That Packers offense was so much better than this one that it makes it hard to see that happening. Granted their offense still really didn't do that much in that '14 game, but it was just leaps and bounds better than this one. You could argue the Seattle offense they shut down most of that game was better than SF's though. I wouldn't count on five forced turnovers.

 

I feel somewhere between their last two conference championships as far as odds. I thought they had absolutely no chance of beating Atlanta in '16 with that skeleton crew defense. I thought they had a shot in Seattle but not a good one.

[adambr2]

That Packers offense was so much better than this one that it makes it hard to see that happening. Granted their offense still really didn't do that much in that '14 game, but it was just leaps and bounds better than this one. You could argue the Seattle offense they shut down most of that game was better than SF's though. I wouldn't count on five forced turnovers.

 

I feel somewhere between their last two conference championships as far as odds. I thought they had absolutely no chance of beating Atlanta in '16 with that skeleton crew defense. I thought they had a shot in Seattle but not a good one.

 

But the offense isn't nearly as good as '14-'15 because Aaron Rodgers was playing like one of the best players in football at that time and this year he isn't. Really if he returned to that level of play again it's not a stretch to compare the two, just mainly we had a bit better overall receiving corps then. I know it's a lot to ask for him to do that but yesterday was definitely a step in the right direction.

 

I wouldn't count on 5 turnovers either although if Jimmy would turn it over just once or twice it could go a long ways for us.

[KeithStone53151]

One thing worth pointing out, Packers receivers not named Adams had 3 total targets while Adams had 11. Allison, MVS, and Kumerow each had one...the first two converting for 11 and 8 yard gains. We will seriously need to involve some more players, otherwise SF will double and even triple DA.

[pacopete4]

There we plays last night where Rodgers had other WR options open and he still went to Adams. It worked but our offense would definitely be more consistent if he bought into the system.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

He's saving Lazard's 200-yard game for next week. Didn't want to tip the Niners off.

[thebruce44]

I don't think Adams is doing much of anything next week. That's all they need to stop. Somebody has to step up. Maybe they get Jones involved more, maybe Jimmy Graham has some geezer magic, maybe Allen Lazard steps up, but I feel pretty certain they will take Adams out of the game.

 

Sherman typically stays at left corner, that's just his style of play - I'd put a combo of MVS, Lazard, and Allison opposite Sherman and run a bunch of go routes or short breaking outs to essentially take Sherman out of the game. Moving Adams to the other side probably draws double coverage from the 49ers with a corner and safety, which would then leave 1 safety, a nickle corner, and either an extra DB or LBs for GB to try and pick on. If Rodgers can get a little bit of time I think there are opportunities for combo routes with Adams crossing the field to draw defenders and open up deep seam and corner routes for a slot receiver or TE to make some big plays. Guys like Lazard, Tonyan, Graham, and even Sternberger are going to need to step up. I'd also like to see Jones used in the passing game - not so much screens or checkdowns, but wheel routes and slants coming out of the backfield to try and get him in space moving forward.

 

San Fran's defense actually can be run on, as long as you don't try to get outside - their LBs and DE's are just too fast in pursuit. The best bet is to line up and try smashing them in the mouth with a power running game. The difficulty in that is it's tough to run both a power running game and spread passing attack with the same personnel groupings, and I think the way to beat S.F. is to either go full-on Tennessee Titan with a bellcow running back or spread them out to force them out of their base personnel. I don't think the Packers are good enough in the power run game, so I'd prefer they spread 'em out and hope Rodgers plays out of his mind.

 

I could actually see MLF trying to open up the offense vertically with the personnel for the power running game. Look at the snap counts and groupings that were successful against Seattle. Here is from an article on Acme Packing Company today:

 

Tight Ends

Marcedes Lewis 42, Jace Sternberger 28, Jimmy Graham 24, Robert Tonyan 21

 

As mentioned earlier, the Packers used a huge dose of Marcedes Lewis as they tried to get the run game going. It didn’t work much outside of the red zone, but the rotation of this group proved to be effective enough to get Jones into the end zone and to create some space for Adams in the passing game.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The run game wasn't great yesterday, but it seemed fairly effective. They had a few runs that really got blown up and it dragged the average down, but it did seem like they were able to get those 4-5 yards plays to mix things up.