Brewers sign Gyorko - MLB deal

[TJseven7]

Here's the major problem with the thought that they now have flexibility to acquire guys at the deadline. Sure, you can sit on some extra money with the intentions being of doing just that, however, don't you have to be in contention to even have that happen?? Right now, I don't think this team will be. To me, it would be much smarter to strengthen your team right away going into the season with the thought process being that sure, we don't have any flexibility at the deadline now, but our team is strong enough we shouldn't even need to add anyone of note anyway.

 

Everyone they have signed so far are excellent depth pieces, but that's all they are...they really shouldn't be starters or get significant AB's for a team that legitimately says they want to contend, (I mean no one else was interested in signing them it seems) Too many things will have to go EXACTLY as they hope/think in order for this to work this year...that's asking a lot and almost impossible.

 

It's kind of hard to say that after what we just saw in 2019. 2019 was a complete disaster. They flipped stuff to get Pom and Lyles. They made a huge run. They got the 5th seed.

 

I think Smoak Braun is a really nice platoon at 1b.

I think Sogard Gyorko is a very solid platoon at 3b. Solid is ok because Hiura is a plus plus bat at 2b.

Garica is absolutely a starter and having Gyorko to play some 1b allows MKE to sub in a non-starter level OF bat for CF and CF only.

 

None of that is a stretch. It's also very possible this was the plan all along. 25 man roster, platoon 1b to manufacture a good player and have a good bench bat. 26 man roster (must be 13 batters) manufacture 1b and 3b to steal 2 productive positions cheaply through a platoon.

 

I really don't know how you can call Smoak a depth piece. I refuse to consider Garcia a depth piece.

 

The offense is not a problem. The pitching staff can not lack the stability it lacked in 2019. Yet in 2019 they still were in contention enough to buy on the cheap.

 

Offense needed this 1 small domino. It's now whoasolved. Pitching still needs some style points, even if they are buy low risky upside options. Gotta buy a near handful of them and hit on 2.

[tmwiese55]

geez here we go again. It leads me to believe that if Donaldson called up and said I'm down for 1/25 they'd do it. Just like they did last year for two guys. You can't just spend it to spend it. If fans demand we pay more, welp, let's just give Sogard 25 mil. Boom, we're at last year's payroll. Let's roll, everyone's happy then huh

 

It should go without saying, but signing a 4-7 year contract has payroll ramification several years down the road. Not just right now "when fans should expect to spend more"

[Soupbone]

So what I am reading over and over is that we are a "small market" team and this is what we can do. Our decision now is whether to support them at the same level as we have recently. If we don't support them it makes for an easy reason to say "well we don't have the money. " Brewer fans, just accept that if everything goes perfect we are in contention and if it doesn't there is always next year. That is the best we can hope for.

[MrTPlush]

2016-2018 Gyorko is basically Mike Moustakas of recent years; 110-ish wRC+, average to above averge defense at 3B. For their careers they're the same hitters (99 wRC+ vs 100). So the only concern is a poor 100 PA sample which is largely BABIP-driven. 100 PA is about a month worth of PAs, nowhere near enough to write someone off completely. Yet losing Moose and replacing him with Gyorko (For probably a lot less than 4/$64m) is apparently the end of the world.

 

I also don't understand the idea proposed earlier in the thread by some that we're somehow much worse offensively than 2019. How? Grandal, Moose and Thames aren't the only players who are off the roster. The 2019 versions of Shaw, Aguilar, Saladino, Perez and Spangenberg won't get any PAs at all. Orlando Arcia and Ben Gamel look to play a lot less than they did. Those guys put up wRC+ of 87, 82, 62, 61, 60, 47 and 7. They were worth -1 fWAR combined (The 0.9 fWAR from Ben Gamel being the only positive; and that was thanks to defense and baserunning). Grandal, Thames, Moustakas were 121, 116 and 113 wRC+. It's not even out of the question that their direct replacements can match that (Narvaez has 122 and 119 wRC+ last two years, Sogard had 115 wRC+ in 2019, and Gyrko averaged 112 from 2016 to 2018, Garcia 112 wRC+, Smoak averaged ~115 wRC+ last three years). It's also possible that they won't of course, Sogard had a bad 2018, Gyrko a bad 2019, but I think that overall the offense was better than last year even before Gyorko signed. Then there's a full season of Hiura to add to that. There will be much, much fewer plate appearances taken by bad hitters, and then impact on the top/middle of the lineup is seriously overstated. This team is a better offensive team than in 2019, and to me it's not even close.

 

The problem with this logic is you get to take last years disappointments/underperformances and then compare that to all the 2020 players like we won't have guys be big disappointments. Reality is we will have big disappointments in 2020 once again. Hopefully not to that extent, but there will be. Using that kind of logic always paints the future a lot more pretty than it is.

 

I do think they trimmed off some worthless ABs and will have more average ABs...does that outweigh the above average ABs they are losing? Unknown.

 

Some of them will be disappointments, some players will also perform better than expected. But it also goes both ways; Grandal, Thames and Moose could have terrible 2020s too. Whether you look at just 2019, 3-year averages or projections, I still have a hard time seeing this team not be better than 2019. I don't believe this team will lose any above-average ABs at all, and will in fact gain a lot of them. Offense doesn't worry me at all. But defense is worse, and I still like to see pitching adressed.

 

Sure, I am not necessarily disagreeing with your overall point...I just feel that is an easy way to analyze any upcoming team to make it sound like it will be better. It would be pretty hard for us to have players flop as badly as Shaw/Aguilar did. Hiura having a sophomore slump and/or Braun just simply having a disaster year (at his age) are very real possibilities. Yelich could have a "down" year and lose us a lot of 2019 offense.

 

Overall I don't think the offense is woefully different. If Cain rebounds a bit and Urias can make SS at least someone relevant on offense that would make a huge difference. I do differ with you on above average ABs though. I think we are losing some of the more elite production Grandal/Moustakas gave us, but are somewhat canceling that out if we are getting rid of the pitcher quality ABs/ Not only was Arcia a total trainwreck, but so was the bench a lot of times and the injury replacements. I think the depth is a little more average and that is always a big deal when injuries do happen.

 

Of course Urias, Cain, Braun, and Hirua are all red flags for notable disappoint in my eyes. The later because he had elite production last year and he could be a prime candidate for a sophomore slump.

[bill hAll Star]

So what I am reading over and over is that we are a "small market" team and this is what we can do. Our decision now is whether to support them at the same level as we have recently. If we don't support them it makes for an easy reason to say "well we don't have the money. " Brewer fans, just accept that if everything goes perfect we are in contention and if it doesn't there is always next year. That is the best we can hope for.

 

Well that's pretty much correct.

 

Since 2008, the Brewers have run a payroll between 13th highest and 18th highest (middle of the pack) 8 times.

 

Depending on where you look, the Brewers are somewhere in the bottom 5 of market sizes.

 

So I'm not sure what else is expected rationally. If they skimp at a position here or there I may be mad but I will likely be in the grave by the time an owner like Attanasio says, "you know what? Eff it. I'm going to spend my entire fortune to try to win a World Series."

[Ennder]

Its pretty clear by now that Stearns was told to drastically cut the payroll and he has done just that. Maybe things will work out but its pretty hard to get excited by what has transpired this offseason.

 

This tiger charm I bought must have worked, I haven't seen a tiger in my yard all year.

 

That is basically the logic you just used. You can't know anything by what we have done this year. Stearns isn't going to spend money just to spend it, he is going to make the deals he thinks make sense. We have no clue at all where the payroll could go.

[bigredrobbo]

So what I am reading over and over is that we are a "small market" team and this is what we can do. Our decision now is whether to support them at the same level as we have recently. If we don't support them it makes for an easy reason to say "well we don't have the money. " Brewer fans, just accept that if everything goes perfect we are in contention and if it doesn't there is always next year. That is the best we can hope for.

 

What part of the phrase "small-market team" isn't true? On sheer demographics we are the SMALLEST market team. Add in the relative dearth of TV money and it's not unreasonable to suggest the Brewers punch above their weight MOST years. That doesn't mean we CAN'T be competitive, hell Tampa Bay and KC did pretty well with that business model. If you, or anyone else are bemoaning the lack of signings a la the Nats, Yankees, Dodgers etc. might I suggest following THEIR teams, where you'll get all the high-profile baseball your heart desires.

[wildcat2237]

Its pretty clear by now that Stearns was told to drastically cut the payroll and he has done just that. Maybe things will work out but its pretty hard to get excited by what has transpired this offseason.

 

This tiger charm I bought must have worked, I haven't seen a tiger in my yard all year.

 

That is basically the logic you just used. You can't know anything by what we have done this year. Stearns isn't going to spend money just to spend it, he is going to make the deals he thinks make sense. We have no clue at all where the payroll could go.

 

 

The payroll cutting thing is not brand new. It has been reported nationally, specifically by Bob Nightengale.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/12/2/20992902/milwaukee-brewers-plan-on-cutting-payroll-in-2020-david-stearns-says-team-will-remain-competitive

 

Bob Nightengale is not on the level of Ken Rosenthal, but he is also not a bum.

[wibadgers23]

We just simply need to get better at drafting and developing our own players. Then we’re not having these payroll discussions year in and year out. We did good with guys like Hiura and Woodruff but have a long ways to go in that department.

[anglotiger]

This tiger charm I bought must have worked, I haven't seen a tiger in my yard all year.

 

Damn, I have to get one of those. No wonder I don't have any deer in my back yard... Darned tigers must be eating them all...

[tmwiese55]

What big name star deal do we all think MKE could've and should've signed. While ignoring the fact that we'd also need the person to want to come here and that we'd likely have top that deal that was signed. Just assume the exact same deals that were signed. Which one was our cheap ownership too chicken to do?

 

wibadger nailed it. If we did better in our development we wouldn't have to have this turnover and filling of holes every year.

[igor67]

The column only lists cutting payroll as a descriptive term. Which is important because it really offers zero context for why it is happening. Frankly it is not that much of a stretch to look at what has been done and recognize that the team has about he same chances of getting to the playoffs as they did before last year while being significantly cheaper. The team may have identified the sharp price spike this offseason early and looked at the large pile of OKish role players on the roster and come to the conclusion that doing almost as good for a discount this year sets them up for good chances in subsequent years because we aren't stuck with aging declining players. That is what is really meant by looking for value not overly simplistic analysis alleging the management is using our market size as a crutch.

 

Another benefit of this is roster flexibility in the sense that you are not expecting for all of these players to rebound, but if the team gets off to a solid start again it is easy to jettison the underperforming players and look to trade a 2nd tier prospect for an upgrade later once you have figured out who is rebounding and who isn't.

[Bnowell4evr]

I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop but this is probably getting pretty close to being "it". All of these guys are on major league deals but for Healy:

 

Navarez

Smoak

Hiura

Arcia

Sogard/Gyorko

Yelich

Cain

Braun/Garcia

 

Gamel

Urias

Healy

Pina

 

That's 14 players, which seems about right with a 12 man pitching staff and the new pitching requirements.

 

I don't see Healy making the major league roster barring an injury. He's too redundant with Gyorko on the roster.

[TJseven7]

Its pretty clear by now that Stearns was told to drastically cut the payroll and he has done just that. Maybe things will work out but its pretty hard to get excited by what has transpired this offseason.

 

This tiger charm I bought must have worked, I haven't seen a tiger in my yard all year.

 

That is basically the logic you just used. You can't know anything by what we have done this year. Stearns isn't going to spend money just to spend it, he is going to make the deals he thinks make sense. We have no clue at all where the payroll could go.

 

 

The payroll cutting thing is not brand new. It has been reported nationally, specifically by Bob Nightengale.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/12/2/20992902/milwaukee-brewers-plan-on-cutting-payroll-in-2020-david-stearns-says-team-will-remain-competitive

 

Bob Nightengale is not on the level of Ken Rosenthal, but he is also not a bum.

 

You don't get a Moose and Grandal on a 1 year deal very often. They splurged on offense because

1 the rare opportunity was there

2 they had some young arms volatility to protect

 

Blue moon opportunity got you dreaming. Last year was a pay spike caused by a very cold market. You zig when the rest of the league zags.

[3and2Fastball]

My first reaction to the Gyorko signing was that, similar to Logan Morrison, they are rolling the dice on someone who was a very good player in 2017

[wallus]

I am ok with Gyorko as the right handed hitting part of a platoon. My only problem is having Sogard as the main portion of this. The Brewers must be really confident that he his new found power is real and/or his defense will help make up for Urias and Hiura's shortcomings on shifts.

 

Do we have any estimate on contract length and amount?

[3and2Fastball]

What big name star deal do we all think MKE should've signed. .

 

Rendon and Cole. I don’t care one bit whether Mark has $10 billion dollars or $9 billion

[tmwiese55]

What big name star deal do we all think MKE should've signed. .

 

Rendon and Cole. I don’t care one bit whether Mark has $10 billion dollars or $9 billion

 

I suggest being a yankees fan then.

[Matty V]

This deal stinks out loud. At least LoMo was a minor league deal.

[3and2Fastball]

What big name star deal do we all think MKE should've signed. .

 

Rendon and Cole. I don’t care one bit whether Mark has $10 billion dollars or $9 billion

 

I suggest being a yankees fan then.

 

I’d prefer being a grumpy Brewers fan... I do think there is a certain degree to which Mark is scamming Brewers fans. He’s providing great family fun and entertainment, and in that way he is delivering. I do not think he is investing every dollar he can afford into making the Brewers a winner though...

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm not one to throw a tantrum over moves like this, but man. We are really doing this guy and Sogard at 3rd, aren't we?

[tmwiese55]

I suggest being a yankees fan then.

 

I’d prefer being a grumpy Brewers fan... I do think there is a certain degree to which Mark is scamming Brewers fans. He’s providing great family fun and entertainment, and in that way he is delivering. I do not think he is investing every dollar he can afford into making the Brewers a winner though...

 

 

 

haha fair enough. I know how much people enjoy complaining and all. I guess I simply think that's unrealistic to expect. Last year, highest payroll. Ponies up for two big contracts. Year before, largest contract in team history and one really all of us probably thought was an overpay, aaaand two years later we'd all want out of, 2011-13ish kept spending aaaand that led to those brutal pitching contract we had to eat, and Aram's last year. Again, which contract could we realistically do?

 

Cain contract is kind of a proof point as to why these contracts are so problematic for us. One side of our mouth we're complaining about h is contract and wanting to dump, other side we're demanding that we give out more or they're cheap, stupid, and not trying to win.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I’d prefer being a grumpy Brewers fan... I do think there is a certain degree to which Mark is scamming Brewers fans. He’s providing great family fun and entertainment, and in that way he is delivering. I do not think he is investing every dollar he can afford into making the Brewers a winner though...

 

It’s a business. Like actually, plain and simple, a business. Hard stop. Just because there’s a game on the field that we all care about doesn’t mean Mark or any other business owner would run it differently than any other business. And no business owner puts his own personal money into his company unless he expects more in return. Mark’s not making $350 million extra dollars back into his own pocket if he signs Cole no matter how many World Series he wins.

 

It’s a business. And the Brewers profits (which is money they actually will reinvest...like businesses do) are known to be significantly less than other ball clubs around MLB.

 

It sucks that small market teams are at a disadvantage. But the “Mark should spend all his own money because he’s rich” clamoring is getting old

[StearnsFTW]

If you take Gyorko's vs LHP 3 year average and Sogard's vs RHP 3 year average and weight it for 61% RHP, you would get a line of .356/.425, which I have to imagine is very close to league average. Imperfect of course, but not as horrible as one might expect after reading this thread.

[tmwiese55]

Yea there is a scenario where this can work well (very Oakland-esqe). But there is also a scenario where 3B is a black hole all year, I mean it's Sogard/Gyorko. Granted, we spent 2-3 months last year with production worse than even our worst case scenario this year and still did ok but can't really bank on that again.

 

I would add though, that in all the complaining it's somewhat getting lost that Gyorko was a very solid starting level player before being hurt last year. This isn't the same as trusting a 2 months fluke from Sogard in 2017 or whatever year it was, or thinking a guy like Healy who's never done it all of a sudden will. The guy was a good player for several years on a prime playoff contender until getting hurt last year. Just kinda hurts to have to root for a Cardinal that I'm sure annoyed all of us. It's really not crazy at all to think they guy will be 'fine'