Brewers sign Gyorko - MLB deal

[Bulldogboy]

This pick up is potentially a decent one. That said it could be a disaster. Go along with most of the moves they have made. It's disappointing they aren't acting like a team a piece or two away from making a run at it but it is what it is. Looking like a third place finish is in the cards if all goes well.

[Bulldogboy]

This pick up is potentially a decent one. That said it could be a disaster. Go along with most of the moves they have made. It's disappointing they aren't acting like a team a piece or two away from making a run at it but it is what it is. Looking like a third place finish is in the cards if all goes well.

[MNBrew]

 

I even think they cleared room to make a free agent deal, but then those deals just became too long/rich for our blood.

 

I feel like that is letting them off the hook with a convenient excuse. "hey, we tried."

 

I don't think they went in intending to "slash" payroll, but I do think they intended to spend less than most want them to spend.

I'm not sure it's a "too long/rich for our blood" thing. There's a HUGE difference between "We don't have the money" vs. "That's not a prudent/efficient enough way to spend our money." I'm convinced with Stearns the issue is the latter.

 

Really, I think it's in this: Stearns' "plate discipline" when it comes to money both now & down the road might be one of his greatest strengths, and he's just not going to spend excessively now if it too greatly risks screwing over his chances at wise decisions when "right' opportunities are there due to a lack of needed payroll flexibility. When the golden opportunity presents itself, the guy strikes -- and is able to because his "plate discipline" in prior decisions has ensured that he'll be able to.

 

On a couple other points in the discussion:

 

- Massive increase in the franchise's valuation means ZERO to the revenues on which a business has to operate. ZERO. My house might have increased in value by $100k in the 25 years since I bought it, but the day-to-day expenses I can absorb still come down to my take-home pay -- and all the more so if it has only increased with the times moderately at best, and I still have to figure out how to help pay for my one kid's college tuition and another kid's wedding . . . . so cash in my pocket hasn't changed for the better, the cost of raising my family has only increased, and I'm supposed to not worry about it -- and freely blow actual cash that I don't have -- because my house is worth loads more even though that's nothing in terms of cash until I try to sell it? Nope.

 

- Last year's payroll jumped considerably because of the golden chances to get Moose & Grandal on one-year deals. Sustaining that while lacking those types of golden acquisitions, let alone blowing by that by another $10-20M for anything other than an elite player or two, is risky in the short term and potentially very dangerous for the health of the franchise in terms of sustainability in the long-term given the current realities of team revenues.

 

- Moose was pretty darn good in several stretches. The numbers clearly show he was a plus-guy on the whole. But let's not forget, either, that he had some ugly, ugly stretches. I'm NOT going to miss the stretches of 2-3 weeks at a time where he couldn't buy a hit or drive in a runner in scoring position (remember him & Grandal in the month-plus after the All-Star break?) -- those times when all he ever seemed to do was strike out or pop up weakly on the IF (esp. those to the 1B or 3B in foul territory, oh did those ever suck) time and time again!!!

 

- I'm very wary of the Gyorko signing today -- doesn't light my fire at all -- especially in light of the numerous other seemingly "non-sexy" moves they've made so far. However, there's over a month to ST, we have no idea what be obtainable in trades, and Stearns is our GM. Do those last 3 points justify blind faith in light of viable concerns? No, of course not. But at minimum those 3 factors mean there are some very rational justifications for keeping an open mind.

 

- It's still so easy to get hung up on headlines at this time of year. I get disappointed by un-exciting Brewers hot stove "seasons." Lord knows, lots of other franchises are good at "winning the winter." But I've watched this over enough years to know that winning the winter guarantees precious little when it comes to the regular season. I'll take a winter like this if in the end we actually end up with a good shot at going deep in the playoffs more years than not.

[MNBrew]

 

I even think they cleared room to make a free agent deal, but then those deals just became too long/rich for our blood.

 

I feel like that is letting them off the hook with a convenient excuse. "hey, we tried."

 

I don't think they went in intending to "slash" payroll, but I do think they intended to spend less than most want them to spend.

I'm not sure it's a "too long/rich for our blood" thing. There's a HUGE difference between "We don't have the money" vs. "That's not a prudent/efficient enough way to spend our money." I'm convinced with Stearns the issue is the latter.

 

Really, I think it's in this: Stearns' "plate discipline" when it comes to money both now & down the road might be one of his greatest strengths, and he's just not going to spend excessively now if it too greatly risks screwing over his chances at wise decisions when "right' opportunities are there due to a lack of needed payroll flexibility. When the golden opportunity presents itself, the guy strikes -- and is able to because his "plate discipline" in prior decisions has ensured that he'll be able to.

 

On a couple other points in the discussion:

 

- Massive increase in the franchise's valuation means ZERO to the revenues on which a business has to operate. ZERO. My house might have increased in value by $100k in the 25 years since I bought it, but the day-to-day expenses I can absorb still come down to my take-home pay -- and all the more so if it has only increased with the times moderately at best, and I still have to figure out how to help pay for my one kid's college tuition and another kid's wedding . . . . so cash in my pocket hasn't changed for the better, the cost of raising my family has only increased, and I'm supposed to not worry about it -- and freely blow actual cash that I don't have -- because my house is worth loads more even though that's nothing in terms of cash until I try to sell it? Nope.

 

- Last year's payroll jumped considerably because of the golden chances to get Moose & Grandal on one-year deals. Sustaining that while lacking those types of golden acquisitions, let alone blowing by that by another $10-20M for anything other than an elite player or two, is risky in the short term and potentially very dangerous for the health of the franchise in terms of sustainability in the long-term given the current realities of team revenues.

 

- Moose was pretty darn good in several stretches. The numbers clearly show he was a plus-guy on the whole. But let's not forget, either, that he had some ugly, ugly stretches. I'm NOT going to miss the stretches of 2-3 weeks at a time where he couldn't buy a hit or drive in a runner in scoring position (remember him & Grandal in the month-plus after the All-Star break?) -- those times when all he ever seemed to do was strike out or pop up weakly on the IF (esp. those to the 1B or 3B in foul territory, oh did those ever suck) time and time again!!!

 

- I'm very wary of the Gyorko signing today -- doesn't light my fire at all -- especially in light of the numerous other seemingly "non-sexy" moves they've made so far. However, there's over a month to ST, we have no idea what be obtainable in trades, and Stearns is our GM. Do those last 3 points justify blind faith in light of viable concerns? No, of course not. But at minimum those 3 factors mean there are some very rational justifications for keeping an open mind.

 

- It's still so easy to get hung up on headlines at this time of year. I get disappointed by un-exciting Brewers hot stove "seasons." Lord knows, lots of other franchises are good at "winning the winter." But I've watched this over enough years to know that winning the winter guarantees precious little when it comes to the regular season. I'll take a winter like this if in the end we actually end up with a good shot at going deep in the playoffs more years than not.

[clancyphile]

My thinking is that we'll get something akin to the midpoint of the 2017-2018 versions of Gyorko. The 2016 with 30 homers and only 10 other XBH is an outlier, and so is 2019.

 

That's a .790 OPS, with a 162-game average of 26 doubles and 21 homers with 74 RBI, based on Baseball-Reference.

[clancyphile]

My thinking is that we'll get something akin to the midpoint of the 2017-2018 versions of Gyorko. The 2016 with 30 homers and only 10 other XBH is an outlier, and so is 2019.

 

That's a .790 OPS, with a 162-game average of 26 doubles and 21 homers with 74 RBI, based on Baseball-Reference.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Skipped pages 2-8, but this seems like we signed a right-handed Travis Shaw.

Maybe. But at least for 1/2 the price the Blue Jays paid.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Skipped pages 2-8, but this seems like we signed a right-handed Travis Shaw.

Maybe. But at least for 1/2 the price the Blue Jays paid.

[TJseven7]

Honestly the more I look into this the more baffled I get that people are mad.

 

At ages 27-29 Gyorko produced more war than Moose did in roughly the same ABs.

Gyorko had an injury wrecked 2019.

Moose had another good 2019.

They are roughly the same age.

 

One gets 16/4 and the other gets 2/1? How insane is that? 31 year olds. 1/8th the cost in year 1 and no commitment for ages 32 33 34. 64 million dollar investment vs 2 million. Entirely possible that they are equally productive in 2020.

 

Sure you feel all warm and fuzzy about Moose coming back but that's a stupid investment vs Gyorko.

[TJseven7]

Honestly the more I look into this the more baffled I get that people are mad.

 

At ages 27-29 Gyorko produced more war than Moose did in roughly the same ABs.

Gyorko had an injury wrecked 2019.

Moose had another good 2019.

They are roughly the same age.

 

One gets 16/4 and the other gets 2/1? How insane is that? 31 year olds. 1/8th the cost in year 1 and no commitment for ages 32 33 34. 64 million dollar investment vs 2 million. Entirely possible that they are equally productive in 2020.

 

Sure you feel all warm and fuzzy about Moose coming back but that's a stupid investment vs Gyorko.

[wallus]

I am surprised he took 2 million and a club option. I haven't seen a report on the amount of the club option but I would assume it is quite a bit more than 2 million.

[wallus]

I am surprised he took 2 million and a club option. I haven't seen a report on the amount of the club option but I would assume it is quite a bit more than 2 million.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I get that this offseason has seemed to be, with the possible exception of the Garcia signing, an exercise in finding value to save for a larger move that seems as if it is never going to come. However, outside of a potential Hader trade, which is its own issue, the most realistic options at third base for the Brewers coming into the day were signing Gyorko or Frazier or trading for Seager.

 

At $2 million the Gyorko signing is unlikely to deter trading for lefty like Seager if that is what the Brewers want to do and they find the price reasonable. So it comes down to Gyorko vs. Frazier on a likely somewhat larger contract. Frazier likely offers a higher floor, but you could make a case Gyorko offers a higher ceiling if healthy.

 

I guess unless you thought one of the more unlikely trades involving a right-handed hitting third baseman was going to happen, I don't get the anger over the opportunity cost when that opportunity cost is likely Frazier.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I get that this offseason has seemed to be, with the possible exception of the Garcia signing, an exercise in finding value to save for a larger move that seems as if it is never going to come. However, outside of a potential Hader trade, which is its own issue, the most realistic options at third base for the Brewers coming into the day were signing Gyorko or Frazier or trading for Seager.

 

At $2 million the Gyorko signing is unlikely to deter trading for lefty like Seager if that is what the Brewers want to do and they find the price reasonable. So it comes down to Gyorko vs. Frazier on a likely somewhat larger contract. Frazier likely offers a higher floor, but you could make a case Gyorko offers a higher ceiling if healthy.

 

I guess unless you thought one of the more unlikely trades involving a right-handed hitting third baseman was going to happen, I don't get the anger over the opportunity cost when that opportunity cost is likely Frazier.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm just Okay with the deal. Gyorko by statcast numbers, isn't that inspiring. He's not a HR hitter. Not 25+. Maybe he can give you 20.

 

I mentioned this earlier(to no response) but Erceg has 116 games of experience at AAA now under his belt. I can visually see via the stats that on a natural positive progression trail, he could be an .800+OPS guy to call up at the Super 2 cutoff. His defense looks like he improved at 3b( less throwing errors and a higher range factor) This would fit a Nerd/Jerk platoon at 3b for a couple months. Then you can make a move with what you've witnessed. Away from Nerd? Away from the Jerk? How is Urias fairing at everyday SS? So at the moment I can see where the moves are trending at. You still even have Healy at 3b in a pinch. Though Healy has that ST invite and likely request out of Milwaukee if he doesn't make the team Opening Day feel. Probably signed seeing the hole Milw had with 1b/3b logically thinking making an opening day roster due to it is his best chance at playing.

 

Think about that. Just may add a .750OPS ability bat at 3b with 6 more years of control by mid-season. Still young enough to improve on that.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm just Okay with the deal. Gyorko by statcast numbers, isn't that inspiring. He's not a HR hitter. Not 25+. Maybe he can give you 20.

 

I mentioned this earlier(to no response) but Erceg has 116 games of experience at AAA now under his belt. I can visually see via the stats that on a natural positive progression trail, he could be an .800+OPS guy to call up at the Super 2 cutoff. His defense looks like he improved at 3b( less throwing errors and a higher range factor) This would fit a Nerd/Jerk platoon at 3b for a couple months. Then you can make a move with what you've witnessed. Away from Nerd? Away from the Jerk? How is Urias fairing at everyday SS? So at the moment I can see where the moves are trending at. You still even have Healy at 3b in a pinch. Though Healy has that ST invite and likely request out of Milwaukee if he doesn't make the team Opening Day feel. Probably signed seeing the hole Milw had with 1b/3b logically thinking making an opening day roster due to it is his best chance at playing.

 

Think about that. Just may add a .750OPS ability bat at 3b with 6 more years of control by mid-season. Still young enough to improve on that.

[Matty V]

Gyorko had an injury wrecked 2019.

 

He had a wrist injury, back injury, and calf injury. He had surgery on his wrist.

 

You can look at 2019 and say, "He's healthy now--he should rebound."

 

Or you can look at 2019 and say, "This guy is on the wrong side of 30 and he's falling apart."

 

I think it's a wasteful signing but I'll be happy to eat crow if Jerkstore provides good value for the Brewers in 2020.

[Matty V]

Gyorko had an injury wrecked 2019.

 

He had a wrist injury, back injury, and calf injury. He had surgery on his wrist.

 

You can look at 2019 and say, "He's healthy now--he should rebound."

 

Or you can look at 2019 and say, "This guy is on the wrong side of 30 and he's falling apart."

 

I think it's a wasteful signing but I'll be happy to eat crow if Jerkstore provides good value for the Brewers in 2020.

[Ennder]

Skipped pages 2-8, but this seems like we signed a right-handed Travis Shaw.

 

But without the 4 WAR upside.

 

I don't really expect him to hit 4 WAR by any means but if you take his best season and prorate it to 162 games you get 4 WAR. Second best prorated to 162 is 3.3 WAR. That is comparable to Shaw's best 2 seasons. Shaw is 2 years younger though so I'd much rather have him back instead but Shaw didn't want to come back so that wasn't really an option.

[Ennder]

Skipped pages 2-8, but this seems like we signed a right-handed Travis Shaw.

 

But without the 4 WAR upside.

 

I don't really expect him to hit 4 WAR by any means but if you take his best season and prorate it to 162 games you get 4 WAR. Second best prorated to 162 is 3.3 WAR. That is comparable to Shaw's best 2 seasons. Shaw is 2 years younger though so I'd much rather have him back instead but Shaw didn't want to come back so that wasn't really an option.

[jonescm128]

I think this is the club's strategy:

 

1. Find value in players. Any players. It's kind of ruthless, but the idea is that if you look at what you lost, and replace it in any way possible.

 

According the Fangraphs, the Brewers produced 24.2 offensive WAR in 2019. Going forward, it's not about replacing Moose or Grandal. But instead reaching that number (or 30.0 WAR or whatever the goal is).

 

If Moose produced 3.0 WAR and Arcia 0.0 WAR, are we worse off if Sogard produces 2.0 WAR and Gyorko produces 1.0 WAR? I'm not trying to say yes or no - just that I think this is how the team is approaching things.

 

2. The team is leaving itself open to future moves to improve the team. Financial flexibility is the value. Obviously, we have a payroll far below last year's number, but that means we can potentially add as needed.

 

The team is setting itself up to add players as needed later on the season. One of the biggest issues that teams face when making trade deadline deals is they can't take on salary. This limits many deals teams can make. I will use the example of JD Martinez a few years ago. When he got dealt to Arizona, hardly anyone was interested in him despite his exceptional bat. Now, his limited ability in the field is one reason - but so was salary. Many teams didn't want to take on the rest of this salary - which was more than $5M. The Dbacks ended up getting him for some minor prospects, and he was a huge addition for them down the stretch.

 

In the end, it allows us to make a few deals without giving away prospects or important players off the roster. It's just us taking on salary.

 

3. It leaves the team open to future moves if things go badly. This is the flip side of #2.

 

If things go badly, a team can really be dragged down by long term contracts. If this happens in 2020, the team can much more easily retool for 2021. Guys like Sogard - on cheap, one year deals - are easy to trade if they are playing well. And if we can't move them, it's easy to reset for 2021 since they are not tied to us long term.

 

Financial flexibility is a huge advantage to any team. I think we are going to try and use it. It's also an excuse to be cheap - but that's been discussed ad nauseam in some other threads.

 

I don't think Milwaukee will be making any major FA moves. I could still see a trade or two happening, maybe a lower tier FA pitcher, but I think Stearns will simply take what he can. If it's not there, he'll roll with what he has. That can be frustrating for fans, but such is life.

 

 

Totally agree. You never know what is going to happen the first few months of the season and the Brewers mid season acquisitions have played huge roles down the stretch for them.

[jonescm128]

I think this is the club's strategy:

 

1. Find value in players. Any players. It's kind of ruthless, but the idea is that if you look at what you lost, and replace it in any way possible.

 

According the Fangraphs, the Brewers produced 24.2 offensive WAR in 2019. Going forward, it's not about replacing Moose or Grandal. But instead reaching that number (or 30.0 WAR or whatever the goal is).

 

If Moose produced 3.0 WAR and Arcia 0.0 WAR, are we worse off if Sogard produces 2.0 WAR and Gyorko produces 1.0 WAR? I'm not trying to say yes or no - just that I think this is how the team is approaching things.

 

2. The team is leaving itself open to future moves to improve the team. Financial flexibility is the value. Obviously, we have a payroll far below last year's number, but that means we can potentially add as needed.

 

The team is setting itself up to add players as needed later on the season. One of the biggest issues that teams face when making trade deadline deals is they can't take on salary. This limits many deals teams can make. I will use the example of JD Martinez a few years ago. When he got dealt to Arizona, hardly anyone was interested in him despite his exceptional bat. Now, his limited ability in the field is one reason - but so was salary. Many teams didn't want to take on the rest of this salary - which was more than $5M. The Dbacks ended up getting him for some minor prospects, and he was a huge addition for them down the stretch.

 

In the end, it allows us to make a few deals without giving away prospects or important players off the roster. It's just us taking on salary.

 

3. It leaves the team open to future moves if things go badly. This is the flip side of #2.

 

If things go badly, a team can really be dragged down by long term contracts. If this happens in 2020, the team can much more easily retool for 2021. Guys like Sogard - on cheap, one year deals - are easy to trade if they are playing well. And if we can't move them, it's easy to reset for 2021 since they are not tied to us long term.

 

Financial flexibility is a huge advantage to any team. I think we are going to try and use it. It's also an excuse to be cheap - but that's been discussed ad nauseam in some other threads.

 

I don't think Milwaukee will be making any major FA moves. I could still see a trade or two happening, maybe a lower tier FA pitcher, but I think Stearns will simply take what he can. If it's not there, he'll roll with what he has. That can be frustrating for fans, but such is life.

 

 

Totally agree. You never know what is going to happen the first few months of the season and the Brewers mid season acquisitions have played huge roles down the stretch for them.

[PeaveyFury]

I think what people seem to be strugging with is that the Brewers have seemingly decided that there's more value in trying to upgrade offensive roster spots to improve along all of 1-13/14, rather than just focusing on 1-8. As reilly pointed out and explained better than I can, they seem to be looking to get to a total WAR from the offense, and they've decided that rather than trying to match Moose with a like-kind 3B, they're thinking that going to Gyorko/Sogard while also upgrading from Saladino to Arcia is going to match the total WAR. It's interesting as a strategy, really.

[PeaveyFury]

I think what people seem to be strugging with is that the Brewers have seemingly decided that there's more value in trying to upgrade offensive roster spots to improve along all of 1-13/14, rather than just focusing on 1-8. As reilly pointed out and explained better than I can, they seem to be looking to get to a total WAR from the offense, and they've decided that rather than trying to match Moose with a like-kind 3B, they're thinking that going to Gyorko/Sogard while also upgrading from Saladino to Arcia is going to match the total WAR. It's interesting as a strategy, really.

[pacopete4]

I think what people seem to be strugging with is that the Brewers have seemingly decided that there's more value in trying to upgrade offensive roster spots to improve along all of 1-13/14, rather than just focusing on 1-8. As reilly pointed out and explained better than I can, they seem to be looking to get to a total WAR from the offense, and they've decided that rather than trying to match Moose with a like-kind 3B, they're thinking that going to Gyorko/Sogard while also upgrading from Saladino to Arcia is going to match the total WAR. It's interesting as a strategy, really.

 

Agreed. Will it work this year? Who knows. But I think it’s exciting that we are piling in players and allowing Counsell to work his magic (hopefully) and get the most out of players that have shown they can be productive at the MLB level.