Top Brewers Prospects by Position

[Lathund]

If you're going to be making a stats-only evaluation of prospects, it has to take into account things like age and experience (As proxies for physical development and room for growth) and quality of opposition. Ignoring both that aspect as well as scouting is what gets you Cam Roegner as the #1 overall prospect in ths system ahead of Keston Hiura. Or Tristen Lutz at #38. It wouldn't really bother me if it was at least consistently about the stats, but it isn't that either. Everyone is free to rank prospects in whatever manner they want to, it's just useful to know which rankings are more of a wishlist than an attempt at an objective (as objective as an individual can get) ranking.

[82brewcrew82]

If you're going to be making a stats-only evaluation of prospects, it has to take into account things like age and experience (As proxies for physical development and room for growth) and quality of opposition. Ignoring both that aspect as well as scouting is what gets you Cam Roegner as the #1 overall prospect in ths system ahead of Keston Hiura. Or Tristen Lutz at #38. It wouldn't really bother me if it was at least consistently about the stats, but it isn't that either. Everyone is free to rank prospects in whatever manner they want to, it's just useful to know which rankings are more of a wishlist than an attempt at an objective (as objective as an individual can get) ranking.

As was stated everyone is entitled to make their own list but this post pretty much sums up why I believe Clancy's lists are useless. You simply cannot ignore scouting, actual talent and upside. Yes, he guessed right on Suter and has spent every minute since trying to replicate that guess with wild swings at players that have zero chance at playing in the major leagues. His lists aren't so much rankings as they are "favorites for diamonds in the rough" guesses. It's more than just looking at the back of a baseball card and those three deeps are just an opinion.

[Yount19]

I was at a youth Baseball coaches conference (ABCA) in Nashville over the weekend and I was talking to a college coach/pitching instructor who tells me LHP Antoine Kelly is the real deal and will be the Brewers top prospect this year or in the very near future. Top of the rotation kind of guy who just needs to polish his secondary pitches. So, I would rank Kelly, Small and then Ashby for LH Starters..

[TJseven7]

who just needs to polish his secondary pitches.

 

I highly doubt MKE gets him where they got him if that was the case. Most reports state that he needs to create secondary pitches because they aren't close.

 

His arm talent being the real deal is widely known. Guy's a freak. But he's basically FB only with a slider that needs a lot more than polish.

[clancyphile]

who just needs to polish his secondary pitches.

 

I highly doubt MKE gets him where they got him if that was the case. Most reports state that he needs to create secondary pitches because they aren't close.

 

His arm talent being the real deal is widely known. Guy's a freak. But he's basically FB only with a slider that needs a lot more than polish.

 

He was picked 65th overall.

 

Initial results from the Arizona Brewers Blue looked very promising. A 1.6 BB/9. Even if you count the one start in Wisconsin, he had a 2.6 BB/9.

 

He could be a TOR/ace starter, and trying to develop him as one is a gamble. The sure thing? Make him a relief pitcher - maybe even Hader's successor.

[TJseven7]

Right but if he was a small tweak away on his secondary offerings his "god reached down and made his left arm a thunderbolt" arm talent would have put him in the top 10. He's an incredibly exciting talent to watch but he needs a lot more than polish on those secondary offerings. He's young, that's fine but let's just be honest about it.

 

All the reports echo the same thing. Hose of an arm. Better FB control than you'd expect from a guy with his frame at this point. Slider has potential but isn't close to MLB ready. No other pitch. Right now he's got nasty velocity coming from the LH side. He's got an easy projection to the pen. Easy. Just like Hader and Peralta, you can't start on a FB alone. TOR/ace, let's get a 2nd plus pitch first. If he can plus plus FB and plus slider with location now we are on to something.

 

Dream but don't overstate. He should be considered the #1 LHRP in the system today. Not that you push him into that role but system wide he's the best one and right now his profile puts his MLB expectation at LHRP.

[clancyphile]

Right but if he was a small tweak away on his secondary offerings his "god reached down and made his left arm a thunderbolt" arm talent would have put him in the top 10. He's an incredibly exciting talent to watch but he needs a lot more than polish on those secondary offerings. He's young, that's fine but let's just be honest about it.

 

All the reports echo the same thing. Hose of an arm. Better FB control than you'd expect from a guy with his frame at this point. Slider has potential but isn't close to MLB ready. No other pitch. Right now he's got nasty velocity coming from the LH side. He's got an easy projection to the pen. Easy. Just like Hader and Peralta, you can't start on a FB alone. TOR/ace, let's get a 2nd plus pitch first. If he can plus plus FB and plus slider with location now we are on to something.

 

Dream but don't overstate. He should be considered the #1 LHRP in the system today. Not that you push him into that role but system wide he's the best one and right now his profile puts his MLB expectation at LHRP.

 

Exactly. As a starter, he's got some potential, but he's only going about 3 IP per start. Now, that, IMO, is putting him in Hader "fireman" territory in the majors.

[TigerUppercut]

Right but if he was a small tweak away on his secondary offerings his "god reached down and made his left arm a thunderbolt" arm talent would have put him in the top 10. He's an incredibly exciting talent to watch but he needs a lot more than polish on those secondary offerings. He's young, that's fine but let's just be honest about it.

 

All the reports echo the same thing. Hose of an arm. Better FB control than you'd expect from a guy with his frame at this point. Slider has potential but isn't close to MLB ready. No other pitch. Right now he's got nasty velocity coming from the LH side. He's got an easy projection to the pen. Easy. Just like Hader and Peralta, you can't start on a FB alone. TOR/ace, let's get a 2nd plus pitch first. If he can plus plus FB and plus slider with location now we are on to something.

 

Dream but don't overstate. He should be considered the #1 LHRP in the system today. Not that you push him into that role but system wide he's the best one and right now his profile puts his MLB expectation at LHRP.

 

Exactly. As a starter, he's got some potential, but he's only going about 3 IP per start. Now, that, IMO, is putting him in Hader "fireman" territory in the majors.

 

With Josh Hader, you are witnessing the best Brewers reliever since Rollie Fingers. There won't be another Josh Hader and talking about "Hader's replacement" or "the next Hader" is simply wishful thinking and a waste of time.

[brewmann04]

I hope we can get some future starters from this group in the Minor Currently because that the one real way this team can compete.

[clancyphile]

BTW, cuz this has been bothering me.

 

Kahle 5th (mostly due to DHing).

 

Did he really DH an exorbitant amount with MKE? He got 1/3 of the AB of Fry and caught 1/3 of the innings. He got bumped to Carolina played 2 games and caught both.

 

MKE isn't an AL team. He's basically been C only or am I missing something? Personally I have Fry at 1b/3b due to age but have Kahle in the top 3 Cs. He's 2 years younger.

 

Per Baseball-Reference, Kahle DHed 23 games, caught in 19, and had single games at 1B and 2B.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/milwaukee-brewers-organization-batting.shtml

 

(This is the organizational depth chart).

[Fear The Chorizo]

I hope we can get some future starters from this group in the Minor Currently because that the one real way this team can compete.

 

Generally agreed, and the Brewers have developed and will continue developing starters to their staff. Woodruff, Suter, Nelson until he unfortunately got injured - I still hold out hope that at least one of Burnes or Peralta will primarily be an effective starter for them. To me the strength of the Brewers' system over the past couple years has been how they've added a bunch of pitching depth - developing pitching is a numbers game more than anything else, and Stearns' group seems to have a focus on that after taking over a system that was basically devoid of pitching talent just 4 seasons ago.

 

Plus, they've been competitive 3 of the 4 seasons Stearns has been GM operating how he has been going. I'm all for continuing that trend.

[clancyphile]

I hope we can get some future starters from this group in the Minor Currently because that the one real way this team can compete.

 

Generally agreed, and the Brewers have developed and will continue developing starters to their staff. Woodruff, Suter, Nelson until he unfortunately got injured - I still hold out hope that at least one of Burnes or Peralta will primarily be an effective starter for them. To me the strength of the Brewers' system over the past couple years has been how they've added a bunch of pitching depth - developing pitching is a numbers game more than anything else, and Stearns' group seems to have a focus on that after taking over a system that was basically devoid of pitching talent just 4 seasons ago.

 

Plus, they've been competitive 3 of the 4 seasons Stearns has been GM operating how he has been going. I'm all for continuing that trend.

 

Exactly. The numbers also provide options for trading to fill holes.

[TJseven7]

Per Baseball-Reference, Kahle DHed 23 games, caught in 19, and had single games at 1B and 2B.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/milwaukee-brewers-organization-batting.shtml

 

(This is the organizational depth chart).

 

That's a split time C gig like most of the Milb Cs get. I'd still comfortably call him a C. I'd bump Fry and he'd be in the top 3.

[TJseven7]

With Josh Hader, you are witnessing the best Brewers reliever since Rollie Fingers. There won't be another Josh Hader and talking about "Hader's replacement" or "the next Hader" is simply wishful thinking and a waste of time.

 

The 2 IP wipe out stuff Hader does makes him special of course. That's not to say there are no other guys putting up silly numbers as a LH fireballer.

 

I look at Antoine Kelly and I hope for Felipe Vazquez. That dude is also a monster. Kelly is regularly hitting 100 just like Vazquez but he needs that slider to improve. I'd love for him to be a starter but I'd have him LHRP 1 right now because of this.

[82brewcrew82]

BTW, cuz this has been bothering me.

 

Kahle 5th (mostly due to DHing).

 

Did he really DH an exorbitant amount with MKE? He got 1/3 of the AB of Fry and caught 1/3 of the innings. He got bumped to Carolina played 2 games and caught both.

 

MKE isn't an AL team. He's basically been C only or am I missing something? Personally I have Fry at 1b/3b due to age but have Kahle in the top 3 Cs. He's 2 years younger.

 

Per Baseball-Reference, Kahle DHed 23 games, caught in 19, and had single games at 1B and 2B.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/milwaukee-brewers-organization-batting.shtml

 

(This is the organizational depth chart).

So what? Therein lies the problem with your flawed evaluation methods, you think everything you need to know is on a B-Ref page. What do the actual scouting reports say about his ability to stick behind the plate? The Brewers basically split time catchers all through the low minor leagues. This isn't anything new.

[clancyphile]

I hope we can get some future starters from this group in the Minor Currently because that the one real way this team can compete.

 

I think File is going to be a very huge asset in Milwaukee's rotation - probably as early as 2020. Small, Lazar, Sunitsch, and Zavolas have all flashed dominance. Ashby has a power arm, and just needs to cut down the walks...

[brewmann04]

Yes that group looks promising.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Here's a hastily put together alternate version

 

Catcher: 1. Feliciano. 2. Henry 3. Nottingham

Thoughts: Fry deserves an honorable mention here. Also, I have no idea what kind of catcher he is, but Jhonnys Cabrera put up a .799 OPS debut season in the DSL. Deepest non-pitching position in the system relative to number of players on the field.

 

1B: 1. Thomas Dillard 2. Martinez 3. Bautista

Thoughts: Castro or Spanberger possibly should be placed here but the generally uninspiring nature of this group led me to dream a bit with Bautista, who wasn't great last season but I think got a decent sized bonus.

 

2B: 1. Mathias 2. Valerio 3. Holt

Thoughts: Kind of wanted to put Valerio first here because AAA numbers from last year should be taken with a grain of salt, but giving up a decent catching prospect and a 40-man spot for Mathias makes me think maybe they see something. Hinojosa's stellar second half does bear mention.

 

SS: 1. Turang 2. Garcia 3. Hamilton

Thoughts: Easiest group for me to pick and order. Hamilton's a risk, but the upside puts him above any of the others who primarily played shortstop last season.

 

3B: 1. Erceg 2. Parra 3. Jaraba

Thoughts: Proximity to the big leagues, although this was closer than it should have been.

 

OF: 1. Ray, Lutz, Rodriguez 2. Gray, Bello, Abreu 3. Taylor, Howell, Medina

Thoughts: Might edit this one later. I have a feeling I'm forgetting someone

 

Starters:

RHP: 1. Brown 2. Lazar 3. Francis

Thoughts: I came up with 15 you could make a case for and none I felt should definitely be in, so I just went with my favs.

 

LHP: 1. Small 2. Kelly 3. Ashby

Thoughts: Kelly is likely going to be given plenty of time to develop into a starter if he's showing any progress at all, so I'm keeping him here

 

Relievers:

RHP: 1. Williams 2. Feyereisen 3. Barker

Thoughts: Covered in an earlier post.

 

LHP: 1. Perdomo 2. Andrews 3. QCT

Thoughts: Perdomo's the upside guy, but it wouldn't shock me if the others manage to make an impact

[82brewcrew82]

Now that is a list I can agree with. So many of our higher upside players are in the lower tiers of the organization that you have to dream a bit, particularly with the bats. My personal preference is to favor upside with performance/results factoring more heavily the higher up the chain the player gets. I'd have to comb through a bit but I doubt I'd have much to quibble with on that list. I do think File is a legit mid to back end RHSP prospect but assigning him TOR potential is a little out there for my taste.

 

I agree on Castro and Spanberger. They have had decent numbers at times but I always find if difficult to rank guys that were let go by other teams despite solid numbers. They just never seem to amount to much.

[ctmyers]

Much better list. Only gripe would be that Rasmussen and Supak aren't included in the top-3 RHP's. For RHP's I put them at: 1) Rasmussen, 2) Lazar, 3) Supak

[TJseven7]

Much better list. Only gripe would be that Rasmussen and Supak aren't included in the top-3 RHP's. For RHP's I put them at: 1) Rasmussen, 2) Lazar, 3) Supak

 

Rasmussen should be seen as the top RHRP in the system. I doubt they want to slow play the age advanced guy (24.5) off back to back TJs. He's one of the few who I see having a MKE spot after the super 2 deadline. The moment AA is sub 1 whip he should head to AAA. Ditto and on to MKE. I'm hopeful he gets some ST burn.

 

Frankly, with where our pen is right now MKE needs him to get here immediately.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Much better list. Only gripe would be that Rasmussen and Supak aren't included in the top-3 RHP's. For RHP's I put them at: 1) Rasmussen, 2) Lazar, 3) Supak

 

If I was being completely serious about it, I probably would have put Rasmussen in the top 3. Because I had all of them in the same tier I just put guys I might be slightly higher on than average. Truthfully I had Supak and File in that tier as well and Jarvis just a half step below. This category also includes a couple of my favorite sleepers in Luna, Walters and Olson. Like I said, I don't think anybody has a clear-cut spot here (Rasmussen has the reliever/health questions) and you can make a reasonable case for a lot of pitchers.

[clancyphile]

Here's a hastily put together alternate version

 

Catcher: 1. Feliciano. 2. Henry 3. Nottingham

Thoughts: Fry deserves an honorable mention here. Also, I have no idea what kind of catcher he is, but Jhonnys Cabrera put up a .799 OPS debut season in the DSL. Deepest non-pitching position in the system relative to number of players on the field.

 

Interestingly, I had Feliciano and Henry in my top 3. The big difference here is I see Nottingham as #4, and Fry as #1.

 

1B: 1. Thomas Dillard 2. Martinez 3. Bautista

Thoughts: Castro or Spanberger possibly should be placed here but the generally uninspiring nature of this group led me to dream a bit with Bautista, who wasn't great last season but I think got a decent sized bonus.

 

Both Dillard and Martinez were on my list, and Dillard was tops. I went with Aguilar more for the walks he drew at AA (and over his minor-league career).

 

2B: 1. Mathias 2. Valerio 3. Holt

Thoughts: Kind of wanted to put Valerio first here because AAA numbers from last year should be taken with a grain of salt, but giving up a decent catching prospect and a 40-man spot for Mathias makes me think maybe they see something. Hinojosa's stellar second half does bear mention.

 

For me, second base isn't as deep as it could be. Then again, with Keston Hiura, it's locked down for the foreseeable future.

 

SS: 1. Turang 2. Garcia 3. Hamilton

Thoughts: Easiest group for me to pick and order. Hamilton's a risk, but the upside puts him above any of the others who primarily played shortstop last season.

 

I'll just note that you and I have picked two of the same three SS. The big difference, I went with Devanney on the stats, and have Garcia at #3 due to the ankle injury.

 

3B: 1. Erceg 2. Parra 3. Jaraba

Thoughts: Proximity to the big leagues, although this was closer than it should have been.

 

i had Erceg tied with third with Eddie Silva. Picked Aaron Familia due to good numbers in the low-low minors. Weston Wilson was my "proximity" pick - and largely because he seems to have put it together more than Erceg.

 

OF: 1. Ray, Lutz, Rodriguez 2. Gray, Bello, Abreu 3. Taylor, Howell, Medina

Thoughts: Might edit this one later. I have a feeling I'm forgetting someone

 

Four of the six I picked were listed here. If I were doing it by trios, it would likely be: Hummel/Ray/Taylor (proximity/talent); Lutz/Bello/Segovia; Gray/Cipion/Mercado.

 

Starters:

RHP: 1. Brown 2. Lazar 3. Francis

Thoughts: I came up with 15 you could make a case for and none I felt should definitely be in, so I just went with my favs.

 

LHP: 1. Small 2. Kelly 3. Ashby

Thoughts: Kelly is likely going to be given plenty of time to develop into a starter if he's showing any progress at all, so I'm keeping him here

 

In this one, there can be a credible case for many. I went with dominating stats for File/Lazar/Zavolas.

 

On the left-handed side, Kelly is my #4, simply because the surer route to the majors for him is as elite relief pitcher.

 

Relievers:

RHP: 1. Williams 2. Feyereisen 3. Barker

Thoughts: Covered in an earlier post.

 

LHP: 1. Perdomo 2. Andrews 3. QCT

Thoughts: Perdomo's the upside guy, but it wouldn't shock me if the others manage to make an impact

 

You can make a lot of credible cases in the bullpen for the right side. I went with Olczak with some residuals from his 2018. Castaneda's AFL performance rocketed him up in my eyes, and McCarville's run (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mccarv000kee) was eye-popping. Your three are easily in my top eight.

 

On the left side, I had Perdomo and Andrews, albeit Andrews was 1 and Perdomo 2. as for QTC, he was #4, did well, but I want to see how his arm holds up post-Tommy John. Mediavilla's numbers (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mediav000mic) caught my eye. He's had two sub-1.00 ERA seasons as a reliever (2018 and 2019). Career WHIP 0.640.

[TJseven7]

Still bothers me that RHSP 1 isn't Burnes. Graduated or not it's Burnes.

[clancyphile]

Still bothers me that RP 1 isn't Burnes. Graduated or not it's Burnes.

 

With his pitch mix, Burnes could be a starter. Would that be a better use of him?

 

Will he rebound from 2019? Or is he a brief wonder that everyone has figured out?

 

Lots of questions.