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ARTICLE: Hall of Fame Trial - Bert Blyleven

Brian the Automator

By Brian the Automator,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

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BERT BLYLEVEN

22 Years, with five teams (Minnesota twice, Texas, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, California).

 

 <span style="font-family:courier;"> W-L GP GS CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
---------------------------------------------------------------
287-250 692 685 242 60 0 4969.1 4632 1830 430 1322 3701 3.31
</span>

 

HOF Eligibility: Currently eligible; on 2006 ballot.

HOF Voting Trends: Best year in voting was 2005 (211 of required 516 votes, 40.9%). Voting has increased every year since first eligible in 1999; biggest jump was in 2004 (went from 29.2% to 35.4%, with 34 additional votes). Trend suggests HOF selection by 2012-13 ? just before his eligibility runs out.

All-Star Games: Two (1973, 1985).

Awards: Twice received one or more votes in MVP balloting (4 votes in 1973, 32 in 1989); career 0.09 MVP award share. Three top-five finishes in Cy Young voting (1984-85, 89), with an additional top 10 finish in 1973 (7th). Best finish was in 1984 AL (3rd, 45 votes, 4 1st place votes, behind Willie Hernandez and Dan Quisenberry); Career 0.45 CYA award shares.

Black Ink: 16 (Times led league in various categories; average HOFer scores about 40).

Gray Ink: 239 (Times among leaders in various categories; average HOFer scores about 185); total is 24th best among pitchers ? and same amount as Pete Rose.

HOFS: 50.0 under the original method, 54.2 under the adjusted method; average HOFer scores 49.4.

HOFCM: 120.5 (Likely HOFer scores above 100; certain HOFer scores 130 or more).

Most Similar Pitcher: Don Sutton (914); a score of 950 or better indicates a large degree of similarity between two pitchers' career totals.

HOF in top 10 most Similar Pitchers: Eight. It could be argued that every single one of the pitchers in Bert's top 10 should be in the Hall of Fame, since the only two non-members are Tommy John (889) and Jim Kaat (854). The others: Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins, Robin Roberts, Tom Seaver, Early Wynn, Phil Niekro and Steve Carlton.

Post-season: Five post-seasons series; teams are 4-1 (with two World Series titles); 5-1, 2.47 ERA in 6 starts (8 GP); 43 hits, 8 BB, 36 K in 47.1 IP; got a base hit and scored a run in game three of the Pirates' sweep of the Reds in the '79 NLCS. Two World Series (Pirates 1979 and Twins 1987); 2-1, 2.35 ERA in 3 starts (4 GP); 21 hits, 5 BB, 16 K in 23.0 IP.

 

THE KELTNER LIST AND BRUCE SUTTER

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball? Considering the fact that he never won the Cy Young, but he did get some votes for MVP at a couple of points during his career, he was probably considered one of the best ? but not the best.

 

Was he the best player on his team? An incredibly loaded question. From 1970-76, when he was on the Twins, they had Rod Carew and Tony Oliva. From 1978-80, when he was with the Pirates, they had Dave Parker and Willie Stargell. From 1981-85, he was only once the standout best player on the Indians (in 1984); during his second run with the Twins, they had Kirby Puckett and Dan Gladden. From 1989 to the end of his career, Bert was a decent pitcher on a young Angels team. So the answer is essentially no.

 

Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position? In 1984, when he was with Cleveland, he probably was the best pitcher in the AL ? but he didn't win the CYA because the Tribe stunk. This is the primary problem with Bert's numbers ? he was a good pitcher for some mediocre teams, and was only a member of a talented ensemble in the two years where his teams were outstanding.

 

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? During the 1979 pennant run with the Pirates, Bert didn't exactly set the world on fire with his pitching: six starts, 1-1 with four no-decisions; he didn't complete a single game, pitching in 36.1 innings. His ERA was 3.96, with a 1.376 Ratio. He struck out 23 (seven coming in a 6.2 IP game against the Mets), but pitched no more than adequately during that time. The Pirates were 3-3 in those six games. In 1987, Bert pitched a lot better as the Twins were holding off the Royals. He went 2-2 in seven starts, with a 2.47 ERA and 1.134 Ratio in 54.2 innings; he threw a complete-game five-hitter in clinching a tie for the division title on Sept. 27. I'd say that he's had some good moments and bad in trying to get his team over the top.

 

Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime? He won 59 of his career 287 after turning 35, so the answer would be yes.

 

Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame? No, because his name is not Barry Lamar Bonds.

 

Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame? We've already established that he's comparable to eight other HOF pitchers, and the other two that aren't in the Hall have good enough numbers to be legit HOF candidates. The problem, however, is that all of his comps have "something else" that set them apart from other pitchers ? one big season, or one stellar performance in the post-season. Bert doesn't have that.

 

Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? Considering that he meets exactly half of the standards for a pitcher, according to the basic method, you'd have to say definitely yes. He's wedged in between some 19th Century pitchers, just below Phil Niekro in the adjusted totals. His numbers don't hurt his HOF argument, when considered overall.

 

Is there any evidence to suggest that he was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? Bert played in some basically pitching-neutral parks in his career; though his second tour with the Twins was in the Metrodome, the Park Factor during his tenure wasn't that great (104). You might argue that his 17-5 record in 1989 was mostly due to his playing at a pitching-friendly Anaheim Stadium; in fact, he was 8-1 with a 2.64 ERA (1.064 Ratio) at home that year.

 

Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in? Among eligible pitchers, he's the best candidate, hands down. Jim Rice might have a slight edge overall among eligible players, but Bert's the best pitcher.

 

How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? He was actually nominated twice, but didn't win, in 1973 and 1989. He had those handful of top 10 Cy Young voting finishes, but never won one. He probably should have won the 1984 AL CYA, if only he didn't pitch in Cleveland.

 

How many All-Star type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame? He only pitched in two All-Star games, and that was mostly because of how pitchers are selected. This is an insight into why it's taking so long for him to get selected to the HOF: there were so many other good pitchers that played during his career; he was always among the best, but not THE best.

 

If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? Two pennants in 22 seasons? That's not a huge number, but there's a lot of people that are in the HOF who have fewer World Series rings than he does.

 

What impact did he have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? This is always a difficult question to ask, because it's not clear for a lot of people. I think he realized after his three-year term with the Pirates that the AL (and the DH was for him, since his career BA was .131 with no homers and 25 RBI. He was part of a trend in 1992 of having 40+ year old pitchers in the AL.

 

Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? Bert has been the Twins' color analyst on Fox Sports Net North for the last nine years. According to his website (bertblyleven.com), he's done a lot for several charitable organizations, such as Parkinson's Association, Juvenile Diabetes, Leukemia Association, Children's Hospital and the Ronald McDonald House. No objections to that. Oh, and he's a pretty mean cow-milker, too ? just ask Bill Schroeder.

 

And now, the big question:

 

Is he a likely Hall of Famer?

 

(Deep breath) Bert is a good pitcher who, if he pitched in any other era, at any other time, probably would be in the Hall of Fame by now.

 

If he had won 20 games more than once in his career, or had won a Cy Young award at some point, we wouldn't be discussing his selection right now.

 

If he had played for one team for an extended period of time, he also might have caught more of an opportunity to win more games ? and reach the magic 300-win plateau.

 

There's that other little thing: only eight pitchers have struck out more batters than Walter Johnson. Five are in the hall, and two are active (Clemens and Randy Johnson).

 

You look at his numbers, you see the pitchers whose company he is keeping, and you can't help but think that he's a Hall of Famer.

 

There's just one problem: not everyone can see the forest for all of the trees. Take him out of his time frame, put him in today's MLB, and Gammons would be singing his praises. He'd be your Maddux, your Glavine. Put him where he breaks into the majors in 1960, and he's your Gaylord Perry, or (at worst) Jim Kaat.

 

He should be a Hall of Famer. Whether or not the BBWAA will realize that before he drops off the ballot in 2013 is another story.

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splitterpfj Biloxi Shuckers

splitterpfj

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Some of the things that really impress me about Blyleven just aren't going to be there for today's generation of pitchers. The 60 shutouts, the complete games, the huge innings pitched........that's just not in the cards anymore.

 

Someone mentioned Wells, Glavine and Mussina getting consideration when they're done, almost on a different set of criteria. I agree to a point, it won't be fair to judge guys today the same way previous generations were judged........with few exceptions, starting pitchers are not asked to do the same things they once were.

 

Do you agree that a change of this type will be necessary, and at what point? Dennis Eckersley changed the role of the closer in the late 80's, you can't look at John Wetteland the same way you'd look at Rich Gossage. Where is that break for starters, at what point did 7 strong innings pitched replace the complete game?

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