White Sox extend Luis Robert - 6 years, $50 million

[homer]

Outfielder Luis Robert and the Chicago White Sox are in agreement on a six-year, $50 million contract that includes two club options, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.

 

Per Jeff Passan

 

There goes those Arenado to Chicago for Robert et al rumors.

[KeithStone53151]

This is fantastic news for my dynasty fantasy baseball team.

 

Hard to blame a player for taking set for life money, even if he's potentially leaving double that on the table if he's a star.

[MrTPlush]

This is fantastic news for my dynasty fantasy baseball team.

 

Hard to blame a player for taking set for life money, even if he's potentially leaving double that on the table if he's a star.

 

This is a brilliant deal for Luis Robert...almost a no brainer for any player to take. He assures himself $50mil in his team controlled years which is probably what he would expect as a star. It also means he is very likely to start the year in Chicago instead of the team messing with his service time (now that they can't do that). So the way I see it is he gave up a year of FA for $50mil assured to him regardless of what happens (If you assume the Sox were going to bring him up late to get him six years after 2020 still). He will go into FA at 30 worst case...still young enough to get a mega deal if he is actually a star.

 

His agent swung him a fantastic deal.

[adambr2]

This is fantastic news for my dynasty fantasy baseball team.

 

Hard to blame a player for taking set for life money, even if he's potentially leaving double that on the table if he's a star.

 

This is a brilliant deal for Luis Robert...almost a no brainer for any player to take. He assures himself $50mil in his team controlled years which is probably what he would expect as a star. It also means he is very likely to start the year in Chicago instead of the team messing with his service time (now that they can't do that). So the way I see it is he gave up a year of FA for $50mil assured to him regardless of what happens (If you assume the Sox were going to bring him up late to get him six years after 2020 still). He will go into FA at 30 worst case...still young enough to get a mega deal if he is actually a star.

 

His agent swung him a fantastic deal.

 

If they delay his service time by 2 weeks or so at any point, I believe they can gain a "7th" season which would be an arbitration season before he reaches FA.

 

Of course there will be a new CBA by then so who knows. Either way I agree it's a fantastic deal for Robert. He would have to be a star to earn 50M in 6 years so I'm shocked there isn't really any team discount on this.

[MrTPlush]

If they delay his service time by 2 weeks or so at any point, I believe they can gain a "7th" season which would be an arbitration season before he reaches FA.

 

Of course there will be a new CBA by then so who knows. Either way I agree it's a fantastic deal for Robert. He would have to be a star to earn 50M in 6 years so I'm shocked there isn't really any team discount on this.

 

It would depend on the language of the contract. I would expect and assume they put a clause into the contract the White Sox cannot offer him arbitration. This happens often when guys come from overseas. Good Brewers example is Aoki from recent memory...Thames may have had the same type of agreement. Would not shock me if a prospect contract has the same.

 

While in 6 years salaries may be dramatically different, his options are $20mil. Even as a star he is hardly losing out on much money sacrificing the two years of FA.

[jerichoholicninja]

His agent swung him a fantastic deal.

 

[sarcasm]No, he got screwed by a greedy owner.[/sarcasm]

[RollieTime]

I agree that this doesn’t seem like a team friendly deal at all. Kind of strange that they would even offer it. Instead of getting a guy for near minimum for 3 years and then going through arbitration, where he would probably max out at $50 million or so even if he’s an All-Star a couple times, they risk it by giving him a guaranteed 6 years now before he’s ever faced a pitch at the MLB level.

 

The two options are nice on the back end of it, but this seems like a deal that did not need to happen.

 

Kris Bryant is one good example to look at. He’s a 3 time All-Star already, won rookie of the year, and was the NL MVP in his second season, right before he was going to hit arbitration for the first time as a super 2. Just about the strongest resume you could expect from a guy. He’s earned around $26 million in his first 4 season and is projected to get around $18.5 million this go around. I’ll give him around $23 million for arby for next season. So he will earn around $67.5 million. If he didn’t qualify for super 2, his earnings would be under $50 million. Even by qualifying for super 2, with how he was the rookie of the year, 2 time All-Star, AND MVP before even hitting arbitration (as a super 2), and he’s only getting that much more?

 

Maybe it’ll work out for the White Sox and Robert will be an absolute beast, but this is quite the risk from their side. Robert and his agent are wise for taking this deal.

[KeithStone53151]

I'll add Mookie Betts as a comp here. He's made $32.5 million and projects for another $27.7 million in arbitration. His first 6 seasons will pay him roughly $60 million. And those numbers will continue to climb for elite players. That $60 million now is probably equivalent $70-75 million 6 years from now. It's also possible the new CBA reduces team control, and the White Sox know this is coming.

 

Bottom line, this deal becomes team friendly if the CBA changes and/or if Robert becomes a perennial all-star. This gets even more team friendly based on those option years, though worst case scenario for Robert is he's underpaid by maybe $12-15 million per year for 2 years(tough to imagine a top OF not named Mike Trout making more than $35 million per). Of course, Robert could be more Lewis Brinson than Robert Acuna and this deal looks really stupid for the White Sox a few years from now. I wouldn't say either side made a bad deal. The $50 million is probably in the midpoint of potential outcomes based on what we know of Robert. It also adds cost certainty for the White Sox.

[adambr2]

I'll add Mookie Betts as a comp here. He's made $32.5 million and projects for another $27.7 million in arbitration. His first 6 seasons will pay him roughly $60 million. And those numbers will continue to climb for elite players. That $60 million now is probably equivalent $70-75 million 6 years from now. It's also possible the new CBA reduces team control, and the White Sox know this is coming.

 

Bottom line, this deal becomes team friendly if the CBA changes and/or if Robert becomes a perennial all-star. This gets even more team friendly based on those option years, though worst case scenario for Robert is he's underpaid by maybe $12-15 million per year for 2 years(tough to imagine a top OF not named Mike Trout making more than $35 million per). Of course, Robert could be more Lewis Brinson than Robert Acuna and this deal looks really stupid for the White Sox a few years from now. I wouldn't say either side made a bad deal. The $50 million is probably in the midpoint of potential outcomes based on what we know of Robert. It also adds cost certainty for the White Sox.

 

If Mookie is the comp that is one hell of a bar for Robert. I don't see any chance he's going to average over 7 WAR per season for the next 6 years. I'm not saying it's a bad deal for the White Sox if they really believe in Robert but the vast majority of deals signed this early have been much more in favor of the team in exchange for the lifetime security.

 

Maybe the White Sox see writing on the wall for the next CBA being much more player friendly in regard to service time and salaries.

[Soupbone]

If what adambr2 says is true and the next CBA is more player friendly when do we lock up Hiura?

[young guns]

Maybe the White Sox see writing on the wall for the next CBA being much more player friendly in regard to service time and salaries.

I was just gonna post something like this. We've had some speculation on some player contracts being influenced by the upcoming cba, so why not a team? There has to have been some discussion behind closed doors between owners about what the players might want or what they might be willing to give up in some places to gain in others. So my complete guess is maybe they are banking on a less than 6 years of team control future.

[JohnBriggs12]

Robert is an elite talent. Better than Moncada and Eloi Jimenez. Will turn out to be a fantastic deal for the Sox.

[xisxisxis]

So slightly better than Scooter?

[clancyphile]

Maybe the White Sox see writing on the wall for the next CBA being much more player friendly in regard to service time and salaries.

I was just gonna post something like this. We've had some speculation on some player contracts being influenced by the upcoming cba, so why not a team? There has to have been some discussion behind closed doors between owners about what the players might want or what they might be willing to give up in some places to gain in others. So my complete guess is maybe they are banking on a less than 6 years of team control future.

 

It's not good for Milwaukee if that happens.

 

When you combine it with the draft changes and Manfred's proposal to gut the minors, it seems like you'll get a few superteams in huge markets (Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, Mets, Angels, Giants, Mariners, Astros, Diamondbacks, Nationals), with the rest becoming AAAA farms/proving grounds for the superteams to pick over.

[KeithStone53151]

If Mookie is the comp that is one hell of a bar for Robert. I don't see any chance he's going to average over 7 WAR per season for the next 6 years. I'm not saying it's a bad deal for the White Sox if they really believe in Robert but the vast majority of deals signed this early have been much more in favor of the team in exchange for the lifetime security.

 

Maybe the White Sox see writing on the wall for the next CBA being much more player friendly in regard to service time and salaries.

 

I wasn't comparing Robert to Mookie, didn't mean to give that impression. I was throwing out arbitration numbers for an elite OF talent that went through the arbitration process. So let's say Robert more or less is equivalent caliber player to Betts, then the White Sox made a great move in locking him up...plus factor the option years.

 

I'll throw out another guy that's a bit more reasonable, George Springer. It's not exactly apples to apples as Springer signed a 2/24 deal in 2018 buying out 2 arb years. Springer has posted 22.6 WAR over the last 5 seasons(I'm ignoring his 1/2 a year as a rookie). Springer was projected for $10.5 in 2018, so he probably left a few million on the table. He's made $29 million so far in 5 years, and is projected for 21.4 in his final arbitration year. So maybe without the 2 year deal, Springer gets $53-55 million. So even if Robert is Springer, this is slightly team friendy...and then when you factor in the option years it's that much more team friendly.

 

I will generally agree with you that this is a pretty good deal for the player considering some other deals we've seen(Salvador Perez, Jose Ramirez, Christian Yelich, etc). I still think the latter is likely, I suspect team control will shrink from 6 years down to 5 years with the new CBA. If not that, they'll at minimum get rid of the loophole allowing 6.5+ years of team control with the service time manipulation.