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Where to go from here: My armchair GM gameplan for the rest of 2020 offseason


There are still some holes to fill and things to do. As I am looking at this team I see one where we are working to raise the bottom and having more consistent hitting. From the pitching side, it looks like shorter games and what I would guess to be keeping hitters uncomfortable with mixing up the type of pitchers coming at them during the game. Here is what I think would be ideal for the offseason:

Needs: 3b, relief, what to do with Hader

 

Here is what I would do if I could:

 

Trade with Mets:

We get:

Jed Lowrie

Dom Smith

Mets get:

Pick of T. Williams, Black, Wahl, Faria,

Why this works for the Mets:

While Cespedes reworking of the contract has created some breathing room, I think they still want to get some more space. They also have nowhere to play Smith in the near future.

Why this works for the Brewers

Lowrie is a switch hitter who can man the hot corner. Listen, I know last year was lost and he has had limiting years due to injuries but he certainly does have some strong skills if he is healthy including a 2018 season that saw 23 home runs and an OBP of 353. He will need days off and is injury prone but we have a lot of versatile players if need be. It is also a one year contract so we can cross our fingers and if it doesn’t work out, we can look it as buying our 1st baseman of the future. For this year with Smoak, we can have Dom be a rotational guy between late game 1st basemen, 1st base during interleague play with Smoak being a DH and a left-handed left fielder against tougher righties. Look for Smith to be your full time 1st baseman of starting 2021.

 

Fallback plan at 3rd: Todd Frazier

Not the glitzy name of Donaldson but on a one or two year contract for $10Mish per, he is a consistent if not spectacular hitter who is a great fielder.

The lets get crazy and really screw up these plans fallback to the fallback at 3rd:

We Get:

Seager

Sheffield

 

Seattle gets:

Pick of T. Williams, Black, Wahl, Faria,

This trade completely messes up a lot of the rest of the plans- it will make getting the relievers I have targeted less likely because we will be feeling the pinch from Seager’s contract, not just this year but in the future too. That said, he is a good player, great glove and a bat that will play better at Miller Park than I think most are giving him credit for. This also inserts Sheffield into the mix for the pitching staff right away.

 

Relief Pitching

With the starting staff looking like a twice through the lineup at most type a crew, I think we will need some folks to carry some innings in the bullpen. Here is what I would like:

Daniel Hudson 3yrs $18m. This is an added year to what MLBTr predicted but the same PPY. This may still be low but who knows with the way this year’s free agency has gone. I’m going to buy an extra year at the lower price rather than raise the hurt on the budget.

 

McHugh, Walker or Wood: 2yrs $12m. Depending on which one we get, will depend on the real price tag but this is what I have allocated for the spot. It shouldn’t be more than $6m a year for any of the three I don’t think.

 

Will Harris: 2 yr $16M. It sounds like he is weighing in on offers in the 6 to 7m per year range. I think going that extra year is worth it for him. He has quietly been one of the better relievers. He is older but on a 2 year deal I think it is worth it.

 

Final move:

Trade Josh Hader- Listen, I love him too but it is tough to envision a situation where his value is higher than right now and starting next year he will be getting expensive. I think it would be best to work on getting a haul from a team that can give us a package that should help us for years to come. Here are a few ideas that make sense to me:

 

White Sox

Madrigal (2b) (40)

Dunning RHP or Stiever RHP

Sheets 1b

Burger 3b

Mendick INF

 

Dodgers

If Lux and May are a no go

Ruiz C (33) or Gray RHP (75)

Gonslin RHP

Hoese 3b

White RHP

Phillies

Bohm 3b/1b (34)

Medina RHP

Garcia SS/2b

Romero LHP

 

Padres

Patino RHP (30)

Campusano C (86)/ Weathers LHP

Potts 3b

Twins

Kirilloff OF (15)

Graterol RHP (53) or Balazovic RHP (76)

One of Thorpe LHP or Enlow RHP or Canterino RHP

 

Blue Jays

Groshans ss/3b (67)

Manoah RHP

Richardson RHP

Kay LHP

Moreno C

 

This gives us the following look if all goes how I hope:

C Narvaez L, Pina R

1B Smoak S, Braun R, Smith L

2B Huira R, Sogard L, Urias R

SS Urias R, Sogard L, Lowrie S

3B Lowrie S, Sogard L, Urias R

LF Garcia R, Braun R, Smith L, Yelich L, Gamel L

CF Cain R, Gamel L, Garcia R, Yelich L

RF Yelich L, Garcia R, Gamel L

Pitching Staff:

 

Starters:

Woodruff R

Anderson L

Houser R

Lauer L

Lindblom R

 

Relief:

Hudson R, Harris R, McHugh R/Walker R/Wood L, Suter L, Claudio L, 3 Peralta R, Burnes R, Feyereisen R, D. Williams R, Rasmussen R, Brown R, someone who is a NRI or someone left from the out of options relievers not traded or anyone who is ready that was part of the Hader trade (Knebel R will also take his place here when he is ready- just not confident it will be at the start of the season).

 

By my calculations this puts us just under $120M for the year although just over with paying Arcia to be in AAA as a depth piece. What do you think? Personally, when I look at that lineup I understand that we don’t have the thump at 1st, 3rd and C but I really like the OBP we carry with this team and I think the overall team looks much better with a much higher floor on the offensive side. Based on projections for 2020 from BRef the average for the team constructed above carries an average of 16 homers per player, an average OBP of 340 with the low of 314 belonging to Pina and an average OPS of 737.

 

I also think that the starting staff is about what it was last year. Nothing overly exciting but if used correctly, they keep you competitive.

 

I think that while we don’t have the gusto of the three headed monster we were going into last year thinking we had (Hader, Jeffress, Knebel), we do have a balanced staff that won’t lose you too many games either. I also look to some of those prospects to hold down high leverage spots (looking at you Williams, Burnes, Peralta).

 

I like to look at things as a big picture- so while I hate losing Hader, it makes sense when looking at the landscape of other moves I think as well as the future and building for sustainability. How do you think I did as my first day on the job as GM? What do you like, what would you not do? What would the balance of your offseason moves be if you were GM?

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There are a few issues with the roster as its currently constructed.

 

5 starting pitchers. Only 5. Anderson has an injury history and I still believe Houser is a reliever. Woodruff Lauer Linblom are the guys you can "count on." After that it's Suter, Peralta and Burnes. Very few other pitchers are close enough to jump in. That won't work unless you bolster the pen a great deal. MKE has a lot of interesting pen options who have options and all of them need to be buried in AAA to start the season. It's fine to think Suter or Peralta can bump into the rotation but then they need to be replaced in the pen. That was a problem last year. Almost as big of a problem as the starting rotation was. They need 3-4 more arms. That way they can sort in the right starters and have their pick of the litter for the pen from the AAA depth.

 

The team has won a great deal of games in the last 2 years and a big part of that has been the ability to lock down the end of the game when leading. Hader Jeffress Knebel. Hader Pom Suter/Guerra. You can not take Hader out of that and expect to win. Especially since right now MKE has Suter and only Suter from either of those 2 lists if you take away Hader.

 

They need stability in the pitching staff, it can not be considered "done" yet and Hader can not be pulled out to solve a problem that is a small addition away from being a neutral position. Even if the get is a sizable upgrade.

 

They need to avoid black holes because being a bit above average across the board will be enough when Yelich Hader Woodruff and Hiura can be big positives. Locking down the 8th and 9th without demanding it from Hader would go a long long way towards success.

 

Sign Cishek to be the SU man, he is the Jeffress. Sign McHugh to close assuming he is healthy. Another option would be Aaron Sanchez if no starting opportunities arise for him. If/When Knebel comes back McHugh/Sanchez slots in lower and slots in well. Taijuan Walker would be a perfect option to put into the pen with lottery ticket upside as a SP option. Again assuming he is healthy. That's 3. That's a lot of stability added to the pen. Kintzler and Rodon look like under appreciated options as well. The farm could send a number of guys into the pen and rotation in the next 2 years. They need to find guys on 1 year deals who can protect against that not happening in 2020.

 

3b Gyorko platoons fine with Sogard. I'd prefer Flores if his knees check out. It's really that simple and 3b is a minor need when you have a 2b who can hit like Hiura, a positive bat platoon at C, and a loaded OF.

 

There are 2 places where spending needs to be done. 3b seems to be held up due to the Donaldson domino. The RP market has been fairly slow compared to the starting pitcher market. Hopefully DS is waiting on his scrap 3b to fall through the cracks and waiting to see which RPs he can buy low on 1 year deals.

 

Nothing needs to break the bank. They need 5 bodies and you can probably get those 5 for 25 mil combined, if not less.

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There are a few issues with the roster as its currently constructed.

 

5 starting pitchers. Only 5. Anderson has an injury history and I still believe Houser is a reliever. Woodruff Lauer Linblom are the guys you can "count on." After that it's Suter, Peralta and Burnes. Very few other pitchers are close enough to jump in. That won't work unless you bolster the pen a great deal. MKE has a lot of interesting pen options who have options and all of them need to be buried in AAA to start the season. It's fine to think Suter or Peralta can bump into the rotation but then they need to be replaced in the pen. That was a problem last year. Almost as big of a problem as the starting rotation was. They need 3-4 more arms. That way they can sort in the right starters and have their pick of the litter for the pen from the AAA depth.

 

The team has won a great deal of games in the last 2 years and a big part of that has been the ability to lock down the end of the game when leading. Hader Jeffress Knebel. Hader Pom Suter/Guerra. You can not take Hader out of that and expect to win. Especially since right now MKE has Suter and only Suter from either of those 2 lists if you take away Hader.

 

They need stability in the pitching staff, it can not be considered "done" yet and Hader can not be pulled out to solve a problem that is a small addition away from being a neutral position. Even if the get is a sizable upgrade.

 

They need to avoid black holes because being a bit above average across the board will be enough when Yelich Hader Woodruff and Hiura can be big positives. Locking down the 8th and 9th without demanding it from Hader would go a long long way towards success.

 

Sign Cishek to be the SU man, he is the Jeffress. Sign McHugh to close assuming he is healthy. Another option would be Aaron Sanchez if no starting opportunities arise for him. If/When Knebel comes back McHugh/Sanchez slots in lower and slots in well. Taijuan Walker would be a perfect option to put into the pen with lottery ticket upside as a SP option. Again assuming he is healthy. That's 3. That's a lot of stability added to the pen. Kintzler and Rodon look like under appreciated options as well. The farm could send a number of guys into the pen and rotation in the next 2 years. They need to find guys on 1 year deals who can protect against that not happening in 2020.

 

3b Gyorko platoons fine with Sogard. I'd prefer Flores if his knees check out. It's really that simple and 3b is a minor need when you have a 2b who can hit like Hiura, a positive bat platoon at C, and a loaded OF.

 

There are 2 places where spending needs to be done. 3b seems to be held up due to the Donaldson domino. The RP market has been fairly slow compared to the starting pitcher market. Hopefully DS is waiting on his scrap 3b to fall through the cracks and waiting to see which RPs he can buy low on 1 year deals.

 

Nothing needs to break the bank. They need 5 bodies and you can probably get those 5 for 25 mil combined, if not less.

 

Imo 3B is not a "minor" need. I think having a power guy at 2B like Hiura is a huge bonus to the offense, if they can get even an average 3B. I believe Flores, Holt, Frazier, Cabrera are all ok options. None of those guys would be ideal, but all would be eminently better than Gyorko. I'm not sure what you see in Aaron Sanchez? 5.89 ERA/5.25 FIP - 145 hits/131 IPs - 1.62 WHIP - almost 5 BBs/9. He's only 27, but the numbers are awful. I like your McHugh and Walker ideas, but like you said, if healthy. Cishek is certainly not a closer type, but a decent pen guy. He'd have to come a lot cheaper than the $6+M he was making for the last 3 years though. I think if Stearns makes a splash with a RP he'll be looking for a McHugh or Harris.

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Imo 3B is not a "minor" need. I think having a power guy at 2B like Hiura is a huge bonus to the offense, if they can get even an average 3B. I believe Flores, Holt, Frazier, Cabrera are all ok options. None of those guys would be ideal, but all would be eminently better than Gyorko. I'm not sure what you see in Aaron Sanchez? 5.89 ERA/5.25 FIP - 145 hits/131 IPs - 1.62 WHIP - almost 5 BBs/9. He's only 27, but the numbers are awful. I like your McHugh and Walker ideas, but like you said, if healthy. Cishek is certainly not a closer type, but a decent pen guy. He'd have to come a lot cheaper than the $6+M he was making for the last 3 years though. I think if Stearns makes a splash with a RP he'll be looking for a McHugh or Harris.

 

C was Pina and Vogt. I believe they are far better there offensively than in 2018.

2b isn't even a discussion.

SS should be better.

 

Yelich is Yelich

Garcia and Braun 2018 I see similar

1b in 2018 was Thames and Aguilar raking. I believe Braun and Smoak can match that.

 

3b was Shaw and Moose doing work. However, if that's Hiura and 3b can be what the 2b was in 2018 we are still better than we were in 2018. When you realize they've pushed 3b production to 2b you realize 3b production isn't a big deal. In an ideal world you'd want both to rake, but that's easier said than done.

 

Pending what Cain can do this offense can still be every bit as good as it was in 2018, even with a weak 3b platoon. If it can match what 2b did in 2018 which isn't hard to do at all, Cain can be considerably worse than 2018 and the offense can be as good.

 

Cishek is a SU man and perfect for the role. Sanchez I see as a pen piece. He's been awful as a starter lately. He was lights out early in his career out of the pen, even better than he was as a starter. I believe he has a shot of pulling a Pom. He could be an example of what happens when you try to make a Josh Hader a starter. His velo has dropped from 97 as a reliever to 95 and the last few years its dropped to 94 and 93. The velo should play up out of the pen. He can be FB/CB with a change option. Keeping him as a starter would be insanity. As a pen piece you might find a gem.

 

Thanks again for chiming in on how I'm wrong without looking at numbers deeper than the surface or adding up production before you start your spiel.

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Imo 3B is not a "minor" need. I think having a power guy at 2B like Hiura is a huge bonus to the offense, if they can get even an average 3B. I believe Flores, Holt, Frazier, Cabrera are all ok options. None of those guys would be ideal, but all would be eminently better than Gyorko. I'm not sure what you see in Aaron Sanchez? 5.89 ERA/5.25 FIP - 145 hits/131 IPs - 1.62 WHIP - almost 5 BBs/9. He's only 27, but the numbers are awful. I like your McHugh and Walker ideas, but like you said, if healthy. Cishek is certainly not a closer type, but a decent pen guy. He'd have to come a lot cheaper than the $6+M he was making for the last 3 years though. I think if Stearns makes a splash with a RP he'll be looking for a McHugh or Harris.

 

C was Pina and Vogt. I believe they are far better there offensively than in 2018.

2b isn't even a discussion.

SS should be better.

 

Yelich is Yelich

Garcia and Braun 2018 I see similar

1b in 2018 was Thames and Aguilar raking. I believe Braun and Smoak can match that.

 

3b was Shaw and Moose doing work. However, if that's Hiura and 3b can be what the 2b was in 2018 we are still better than we were in 2018. When you realize they've pushed 3b production to 2b you realize 3b production isn't a big deal. In an ideal world you'd want both to rake, but that's easier said than done.

 

Pending what Cain can do this offense can still be every bit as good as it was in 2018, even with a weak 3b platoon. If it can match what 2b did in 2018 which isn't hard to do at all, Cain can be considerably worse than 2018 and the offense can be as good.

 

Cishek is a SU man and perfect for the role. Sanchez I see as a pen piece. He's been awful as a starter lately. He was lights out early in his career out of the pen, even better than he was as a starter. I believe he has a shot of pulling a Pom. He could be an example of what happens when you try to make a Josh Hader a starter. His velo has dropped from 97 as a reliever to 95 and the last few years its dropped to 94 and 93. The velo should play up out of the pen. He can be FB/CB with a change option. Keeping him as a starter would be insanity. As a pen piece you might find a gem.

 

Thanks again for chiming in on how I'm wrong without looking at numbers deeper than the surface or adding up production before you start your spiel.

 

Sanchez"s last year out of the pen was 2015 and he was far from lights out. 4.61 FIP - 1.28 WHIP - less than 6 Ks/9 - More than 4 BBs/9. You can speculate about him or any failed starter in the pen, but why would Stearns want to take the chance? There are too many other questions in the pen. In 2019 the Brewers were middle of NL in hitting and runs scored with Hiura and very good production from 3B-1B-C-OF. 1B with Braun and Smoak shoud be as good or slightly better. Depends on Braun's health. A full year of Hiura should be better. SS is unknow. C will probably not going to be as good, but maybe close. OF overall production depends on what Cain does. Maybe a little better, maybe a little worse. 3B with Sogard and Gyorko will be much worse. If the offense last year was only middle of the pack with great production from 3B and every thing else close, to get better they need good production from 3B.

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Don't cherry pick. You put his starts in the 2015 numbers to grease your incorrect stance.

 

OPS allowed went from 738 to 467

K/9 improved .8

Whip went from 1.439 to .873

K/BB went from 1.14 to 2.71

He had a 2.39 ERA as a reliever and I'd assume the FIP echoed it due to those other numbers.

 

He's killed it out of the pen. Even when he pitched decently as a starter, his pen numbers were dramatically better.

 

Why do you take a chance? You take a chance on 2-3 guys like that so you can push the guys with options into AAA. That way you have 8 options for 4 spots. Hit on 3 and that's how you generate value out of thin air. When teams continue to use a player wrong and kill his value you scoop him up and show them how to use him properly.

 

Then you compare 2020 to 2019 and ignore the Shaw Saladino Perez Spangs Aguilar black holes that the 2020 team doesn't have?

Catcher is going to be a legitimate downgrade but most of that is defensively. Look at Narvaez numbers.

1b from Thames Aguilar to Braun Smoak is an upgrade with how bad Aguilar was

2b Moose to Hiura for a full year is a push if not pro Hiura

SS Arcia was garbage offensively. Urias likely can't be worse

3b Shaw and half a year of Hiura is basically these numbers. That's not as hard to match with Sogard and Gyorko as you think when you realize how bad Shaw was

The infield is deeper as a whole with 1 more solid platoon guy at 3b, not Healy.

OF Yelich same

Braun to Garica about the same

Cain was bad. Cain should be better.

 

You downgrade catcher a solid amount, again mostly defense. You upgrade 1b SS and push everything else with a nobody platoon mate to Sogard at 3b. Multiple bats who played a good number of outings for MKE last year completely flamed out. Unless you think the guys on the roster are going to plummet into darkness like those guys did this offense is roughly the same as it was 2020 because while the top isn't as strong but the bottom isn't completely worthless.

 

If you want to make a complaint about the defense they play, go right ahead. Fact of the matter is that the offense last year was a splurge to protect the team against the young arms we leaned on early in the season imploding. The team was garbage despite that strong offense because the pitching was horrific until Lyles Houser Pom Suter stabilized the team. This is exactly why you add a guy like Sanchez. Add 3-4 arms and when things don't work out you still have extra relievers pushed into AAA to break open in case of emergency. If Sanchez is great as a reliever you completely steal him. If he sucks as a reliever you move on from him and go to another option. Every option that you have improves the chances of a staff that can gain stability.

 

The pitching staff wasn't exactly deep last year because they led with the kids. The team got punished for that and was chasing its tail all the way up until the trade deadline. Pulling in 3-4 pen arms allows the team to do the reverse and its much easier to stash extra options when you lead with vets instead of guys who have options. It helps prevent 4 months of cluster mess baseball.

 

Cishek has been paid 6.5 mil and hasn't had an ERA north of 3 since 2015. You don't think that's a good use of this teams funds? You think that's too expensive when the rest of the team is being done inexpensively. He comes in at 6/1 you take that, plug that into the set up role and smile as Hader gets to be the fireman again. You go with Sanchez Cishek McHugh along with Hader Peralta and Suter. If they get Knebel back in closer form that pen could be absolutely filthy. You could have 5 guys sub 3 ERA. That also leaves an AAA shuttle stocked to the brim.

 

Cishek 6/1 McHugh 5/2 (medicals) Flores 4/1 (medicals) Walker 4/1 (medicals) and Sanchez 3/2 should do the trick for 18 mil.

Guerra Freitas Rodriguez and TWilliams can go off the 40 and away we go.

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welp, I throw an idea for a transaction out here and of course the same day that player (Harris) is off the board. He was a big part of my hope in mitigating the loss of Hader in my original plan. That said, I still believe dealing Hader now is prudent as long as you can get Hudson and at least one of McHugh, Walker, Sanchez or Wood (honestly 2 of those would be better now).

 

I also agree uptop with those saying that 3b isn't a minor need but I think looking at it a bit differently than a traditional 3TO player works. One thing that we have had troubles with in the past is when we have those big boppers go cold for periods of time. I would rather give up a few long balls for more consistent hitting. That is just me though. It would be great to get Donaldson and watch him just smash the ball but that really eats up a lot of payroll for more years than I am comfortable with given his age. I keep going back and forth on Seager too because of his cost. Turner is an interesting idea. I just wonder what the Dodgers would want for him. When Donaldson does sign I could see Turner being a bit of a hot commodity for those teams that lost out. The nationals, braves and twins are all said to be in on Donaldson so there will be a pretty good market for Turner once that chip falls I would imagine and all have the prospects to make it happen if they choose.

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Well turns out the brass and I agreed. With Gyorko being specifically named. Cishek has flown the coop. That makes me grumble.

 

So...

McHugh if the elbow checks out as the opening day closer

Sanchez as a reliever lottery ticket on the cheap

Walker as a upside swing man

 

Need that SU guy. Who is an under appreciated arm who keeps putting up stats. Kintzler maybe? I'm also pretty interested in Cashner as a reliever. His K/9 spiked out of the pen. Oddly his BB/9 did as well. I think him on a FB 55 CH 30 SL 15 mix might work. No sinkers or curves.

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I'm just trying to understand why Seattle would trade their expensive but still serviceable 3rd baseman and a top prospect and main piece in the Paxton trade for one of our 40 man bubble relievers.

 

That does seem like a lot.

 

Granted, I go for a Seager-Dunn-Sheffield package, but I'm at least dangling Tristan Lutz, who is a legit prospect. Even then, BaseballTradeValues.com says Milwaukee's doing a minor overpay.

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I'm just trying to understand why Seattle would trade their expensive but still serviceable 3rd baseman and a top prospect and main piece in the Paxton trade for one of our 40 man bubble relievers.

 

That does seem like a lot.

 

Granted, I go for a Seager-Dunn-Sheffield package, but I'm at least dangling Tristan Lutz, who is a legit prospect. Even then, BaseballTradeValues.com says Milwaukee's doing a minor overpay.

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I'm just trying to understand why Seattle would trade their expensive but still serviceable 3rd baseman and a top prospect and main piece in the Paxton trade for one of our 40 man bubble relievers.

 

Is there even a history of cash dump deals where teams pay considerable prospects to dump said cash?

 

I seem to remember a few and the prospects included have always been rather unimpressive.

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I'm just trying to understand why Seattle would trade their expensive but still serviceable 3rd baseman and a top prospect and main piece in the Paxton trade for one of our 40 man bubble relievers.

 

Is there even a history of cash dump deals where teams pay considerable prospects to dump said cash?

 

I seem to remember a few and the prospects included have always been rather unimpressive.

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I'm just trying to understand why Seattle would trade their expensive but still serviceable 3rd baseman and a top prospect and main piece in the Paxton trade for one of our 40 man bubble relievers.

 

Is there even a history of cash dump deals where teams pay considerable prospects to dump said cash?

 

I seem to remember a few and the prospects included have always been rather unimpressive.

 

Last one I remember is the D’Backs trading Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint for some crappy utility infielder whose name I can’t remember and don’t feel like looking up.

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I'm just trying to understand why Seattle would trade their expensive but still serviceable 3rd baseman and a top prospect and main piece in the Paxton trade for one of our 40 man bubble relievers.

 

Is there even a history of cash dump deals where teams pay considerable prospects to dump said cash?

 

I seem to remember a few and the prospects included have always been rather unimpressive.

 

Last one I remember is the D’Backs trading Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint for some crappy utility infielder whose name I can’t remember and don’t feel like looking up.

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I'm still hoping the Brewers will take on some salary and get that SP who can solidify their rotation. Samardzija, Happ or even Price fit that scenario. The Brewers could take on most of Shark's salary but will need Yanks to kick in quite a bit for Happ. Price would take some creativity.
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So how much under last year's OD payroll are the Brewers currently?

 

According to Cots we are at around 96 million now against about 122 million on opening day 2019, so something like 26 million.

 

Things to consider are that we had six more postseason home games plus whatever other playoff income there was coming into 2019 vs 2020 & comments have also indicated signing Grandal/Moose (28 million combined) put us some amount over budget, but an exception was made since they were one year deals.

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