Hall of Fame trial.............Jim Rice

[splitterpfj]

Does Rice belong in the Hall of Fame?

 

Career stats..........15 seasons, 2452 hits, 382 HR, 1452 RBI, 1249 Runs, 58 SB, .298 Ave, .854 OPS, 4129 total bases.

 

One MVP, 8 All-Star selections

 

Rice is another guy who's on the bubble with the writers, and stands a decent chance this year. Jim was a dominant slugger for the first ten years of his career, but his skills declined sharply as he moved toward his mid-30's. Jim was never considered a strong defensive outfielder, DHing a good percentage of the time, even in his prime.

 

This one's close, the first 2/3 of his career tell me he was a Hall of Famer, but the rapid decline tells me he was not........my vote is no.

 

What do you think?

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'd say yes, because the 80's weren't a very offense dominated decade, and for the simple fact that I think the HOF standards are just a tad bit too high.

[brettac1]

I'm with no on this one. He declined quickly, and played in a hitter's park. He really just didn't "dominate" for long enough for my liking.

[nBo Baseball]

I also say YES! Here's some reasons:

On Baseball Reference dot com Mr. Rice's Hall of Fame monitor for batting is 146.5, (Anything over 100 is considered a Hall of Famer.

I saw him play and he was a dangerous hitter.

Led the league in: Slugging twice, OPS once, Hits Once, Total Bases four times, Triples once, HR's three times and RBI twice.

Four season with over 200 hits, including three consecutive. Seven season with 90 or more runs. Eight seasons with 100 RBI or more. Seven times batting over .300.

Mr. Rice was truely an amazing player. He should be in the Hall of Fame.

[pogokat]

I think Dale Murphy was a better player than Jim Rice...he make's a pretty good case though...

 

but bill james ranks him 28th at his position...which isn't a good sign...

 

in fact...check out albert belle's career line...they are very similar players...

 

Jim Rice is different from sutter...Jim was a terrific player...and he did it at a time when it was hard to hit...but i think Jim Rice is right on the border...

 

Honestly, i think i'd wouldn't vote for him...especially since i think there will be a number of corner outfielder guys in the next 10 years who will eclipse his numbers...making his case look even weaker...

 

can we do this for tim raines??? i'm really intrigued by what people here think about him..

[DuWayne Steurer]

Definately yes on Raines from me!

[splitterpfj]

Hey Pogo.......you bet, Raines is on my list, hang on. As I mentioned in the Sutter thread, I plan on rolling these guys out about once a week. I've started with the guys who were closest without making it in last year's vote, some of the guys I'll get to won't be on the tip of your tongue.

 

Thanks for your comments! I hope you all enjoy this Hall of Fame stuff, I just felt like it's always a great topic of conversation amongst fans, and for some reason I've always taken quite an interest.

[pogokat]

If it's jimmy wynn or ken singleton, then i vote yes...

 

hehe...

[DuWayne Steurer]

Honestly, i think i'd wouldn't vote for him...especially since i think there will be a number of corner outfielder guys in the next 10 years who will eclipse his numbers...making his case look even weaker...

 

To play devil's advocate, should Rice be punished for what people AFTER him do? Not to mention that even though Rice played in a hitter's park, he played in an era that wasn't NEARLY as offense friendly as what player are witnessing now.

[colbyjack]

As soon as you open the HOF for Jim Rice, you might as well induct Cecil Cooper, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy. Take those three players stats in a 6-year time period and it's hard to find how they couldn't be in the Hall.

 

Sorry Jim Rice, you had a great career, but just not quite HOF worthy.

[DuWayne Steurer]

As soon as you open the HOF for Jim Rice, you might as well induct Cecil Cooper, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy. Take those three players stats in a 6-year time period and it's hard to find how they couldn't be in the Hall.

 

Allow me to go all "stat geek" here, and refute this (as best I can)

 

In a 17 year career, Coop had a career OPS of .803, with a Batter/Fielder Wins # of 8.8 (above average, not replacement) Only 5 years of 20 + homers, and 4 years of 100 RBI.

 

Mattingly had a 14 year career with a career OPS of .829, and a BFW # of 15.9 5 years with 20 + homers, and 5 years of 100 + RBI.

 

Neither Mattingly or Cooper reached 2200 hits or 300 homeruns.

 

Rice (all stated above) in a 15 year career had 2452 hits, a career OPS of .854, had 20 or more homers 11 times (more than double Mattingly or Cooper) and had 100 RBI 8 times (3 more than Mattingly) and 382 bombs. And a BFW # of 18.6.

 

To me, my own personal "cutoff line" is right around 20, but I'm not a voter, and it's not my hall, so that doesn't really matter.

 

The point I'm making though, is that in my opinion, you can't use Mattingly and Cooper to make a case why Rice shouldn't be in.

[pogokat]

where's that stat from, i think i could be geeky..

 

and dale murphy is my hero..so i'd love to see him in the hall...give him credit...he played catcher and cf...plus was absolutely dominant from 1980 to 1988...that's 9 great seasons...

 

but how does he stack up with your stat roco?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well, Murphy's got a BFW number of 10.5, but that's lower due to his somewhat shaky defense.

 

Batter/Fielder wins is nothing more than a variation on Total Baseball's "Total Player Ranking" in which it tries (as best they can) to quantify defense statistically, using all possible metrics (zone rating, range factor, and fielding percentage) Of course, we all know that those are still very imperfect quantifiers of defense, so take that for what it's worth.

 

Anywhoo, it's just the compilation of Batting runs, Fielding runs, and Stolen base runs, and then using the rule of 10 (or whatever the exact # would have been in a given season) to figure out wins above an average player (not a replacement player)

 

By using these metrics though, Bill Mazeroski (despite a sub .700 career OPS) clearly deserves his spot in the Hall.

[jwaltz]

I say yes for Rice. In his prime he was one of the most feared hitters in all of baseball.

 

He made eight all star games, won one MVP award, and finished in the top five for MVP voting five more times. Baseball-reference.com lists Orlando Cepeda, a Hall of Famer, as the player closest to Rice.

 

On the negative end, he played a quarter of his career at DH. He also ran out of gas around age 34-35. His counting stats suffer as a result.

[gregmag]

Splitter, this is a great idea. These are quickly becoming some of my favorite threads.

 

I don't think Rice would be a bad selection, but he doesn't quite make it for me. His hitter's park and nonhitter's era cancel each other out, leaving a guy who was great at his peak but wasn't quite good enough for long enough. In general, I'm not a big fan of "RBI man" selections -- guys whose raw contribution gets juiced by their circumstantial achievements. Tony Perez is the poster guy for the type. Rice is very good of the type -- which is why it's certainly close -- but I still don't think he did enough on his own. Put it another way: he wasn't quite fearsome enough to make up for the deficits in his final counting stats.

 

Greg.

[colbyjack]

That's a good case for Rice, but I wasn't trying to use Coop & Mattingly against Rice's case. I guess I'm a little strict when it comes to who I think should be in the Hall and who shouldn't. Rice is pretty close, but I still say no.

[brettac1]

he wasn't quite fearsome enough to make up for the deficits in his final counting stats.

 

I don't really think his rate stats are good enough, either. His OBP was only .352, and the most he ever walked in a season was 62 times. To me he just had three really mean seasons, from 1977-79.

 

Also, splitterpfj, it would be a good idea to post a link to the player you are profiling's career stats, like this:

 

Jim Rice career numbers (Baseball-Reference.com)

Jim Rice career numbers (Baseball Prospectus)

[princeginterhallhelms04]

I agree with Brett, while he may have played in a decade that did not have much offense you always have to take the park effect in to thought. So put a no on the ballot for me..

[splitterpfj]

Greg, I'm glad you're enjoying these, I'm loving the feedback it gets, it's becoming what I had hoped it would.

 

Brett, good idea, I'll include a link from now on.

 

To me, Rice is right on the edge. I saw him play a lot, at his best he was a game changer. One or two more good seasons would have made him an easy yes for me, but he tailed off very quickly, that does just enough to make me say no.

 

In his defense, only two players hit their 500th career homer during Jim's career (Reggie Jackson and Mike Schmidt) and there was only one 50 homer season (George Foster '77). His 382 homers are impressive for the era.

[colbyjack]

Rice's OBP does nothing for me. I love OBP, but in this context it just doesn't do much. Yount's career OBP was .342, and while he played a more demanding position making him a no-brainer, OBP would probably be the last thing I would look at to decide whether or not someone should make it in.

 

In his defense, only one player hit his 500th career homer during Jim's career (Reggie Jackson) and there was only one 50 homer season (George Foster '77). His 382 homers are impressive for the era.

 

Thanks for sharing that, both are very fun facts.

[Weirdos19]

Rice deserves to be in. 382 HR then is like 582 now. The guy was the most feared hitter of his time. Back then, you knew you could whiff Reggie, Rice was another story.

 

Great ballplayer, HOF worthy.

[splitterpfj]

Hey Colby, thanks for compliment. I can't leave you hanging, I had to go back and edit, Mike Schmidt got to 500 while Rice was still playing.

 

To illustrate how much the game has changed since that era, I remember vividly how Graig Nettles and Dale Murphy both tried to reach 400 homers, because it would put them in the driver's seat for the Hall.

[brettac1]

I love OBP, but in this context it just doesn't do much.

 

Put is this way: There are only three HOF OF's with a lower OBP than Jim Rice: Robin Yount (who wasn't a OF for his whole career, obviously), Lou Brock, and Eddie Lindstrom (played from 1924-1936). It just doesn't hack it for me.

[splitterpfj]

There have been some great posts so far on both Sutter and Rice, if you haven't read through them yet, I suggest it. It's really interesting to see the different ways people value players.

 

From reading through the Sutter thread, it appears as though Bruce got 10 yes votes and 6 no votes. I'm not sure if that's accurate, but it's close. That leaves Bruce with 62.5% of the Brewerfan.net vote.........which is about what the writers seemed to think of him last year.

 

If you don't mind guys, after you post, please hit the polls forum and place your vote, it'll help me out, and come on, it takes like 8 seconds.

[NYChez]

I say yes.

 

It's one thing to put up good stats. It's another thing to be the most feared hitter of his time. When the game was on the line, Rice was one of the two or three hitters in the game that you did not want to face.

 

I respect that a lot more than a guy who hits 500 homers but mostly in meaningless situations in meaningless games.