Random thoughts that are pointless and too dumb to say anywhere else thread: 2020

[owbc]

Anyone else think they are completely overreacting about the coronavirus?

 

Nope.

[SomewhereInTime]

Anyone else think they are completely overreacting about the coronavirus?

 

yup

[stoutdude04]

Anyone else think they are completely overreacting about the coronavirus?

 

I'm curious why you think it's an overreaction? Experts believe it could infect half the world population. With a 2% mortality rate. That's a lot of people.

[wallus]

Anyone else think they are completely overreacting about the coronavirus?

 

I'm curious why you think it's an overreaction? Experts believe it could infect half the world population. With a 2% mortality rate. That's a lot of people.

 

I had my own thoughts on this (flu kills much more and the media is really pushing this) but Dr. Drew's commentary here is about right:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY&fbclid=IwAR27c_DI9V2A2PzwXLS3qe2Lkw1yUrSewyUZ9sH6kbY-goyAS6tC-QP9MN8

[stoutdude04]

Anyone else think they are completely overreacting about the coronavirus?

 

I'm curious why you think it's an overreaction? Experts believe it could infect half the world population. With a 2% mortality rate. That's a lot of people.

 

I had my own thoughts on this (flu kills much more and the media is really pushing this) but Dr. Drew's commentary here is about right:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY&fbclid=IwAR27c_DI9V2A2PzwXLS3qe2Lkw1yUrSewyUZ9sH6kbY-goyAS6tC-QP9MN8

 

True, the flu does kill a lot more, but more people catch the flu. Mortality rates for the flu are .16%. Whereas this current virus is 2%. I personally think it is definitely something that needs to be kept in our thoughts.

 

Edit: Also, that was from February 3rd. I would be curious on his thoughts now that its about a month later and it is spreading more rapidly.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

That 2.3% mortality rate would sit well below SARS. In the unlikely event it infects 3.5 billion people, many would experience little or no significant symptoms. The people who matter, health experts and disease control officials, are keeping it in their thoughts. Mass public hysteria that most of the media ignites isn't warranted or productive.

[adambr2]

The WHO cites the coronavirus fatality rate at 0.7% outside of Wuhan. The other positive thing is that it isn't killing children, whatsoever. The vast majority of the people who die from it have an existing condition that is exacerbated by the virus, such as cancer. Like most inflections and the flu, if you are an otherwise healthy individual who is infected with COVID-19, you are incredibly likely to survive it and fully recover.

 

I imagine that once medical experts have a better understanding of the disease, the fatality rate will continue to fall. Vaccines are being developed. As with all outbreaks, this one will eventually be resolved. COVID-19 could be eradicated, or it could become as common as a cold and we will deal with that possibility if it happens, like we do with all already existing contagious diseases. Either way, society will go on.

 

What Snapper says holds true. What can be done is being done. It's great to be prepared. But panic and hysteria will solve nothing.

[stoutdude04]

That 2.3% mortality rate would sit well below SARS. In the unlikely event it infects 3.5 billion people, many would experience little or no significant symptoms. The people who matter, health experts and disease control officials, are keeping it in their thoughts. Mass public hysteria that most of the media ignites isn't warranted or productive.

 

All of that is true. The only thing I would mention is SARS didn't spread like this(if I am remembering correctly). One positive is that it doesn't appear to taking out young, healthy people. After all, a virus needs a host, so they don't want people to die.

[tmwiese55]

Another difference missed by many trying to downplay all of this is how long it sits without symptoms, thus people are walking around infecting others without knowing. Other recent things that got big publicity like SARS and that other one about 5 years ago you knew right away and could quarantine the people. This issue with this one, in theory, should lead to much wider spread.

 

As you guys have said, mass hysteria and panic does not help. But downplaying this like it's no big deal doesn't help either. Doing all we can to help as few as people as possible get it or die from it seems like something everyone should be able to agree on, but of course that isn't happening.

[adambr2]

Another difference missed by many trying to downplay all of this is how long it sits without symptoms, thus people are walking around infecting others without knowing. Other recent things that got big publicity like SARS and that other one about 5 years ago you knew right away and could quarantine the people. This issue with this one, in theory, should lead to much wider spread.

 

As you guys have said, mass hysteria and panic does not help. But downplaying this like it's no big deal doesn't help either. Doing all we can to help as few as people as possible get it or die from it seems like something everyone should be able to agree on, but of course that isn't happening.

 

I don't think anyone is missing that. It's also a positive as well as being a negative. People are walking around infecting others without knowing because in most cases COVID-19 the symptoms are very minor.

 

I don't know what's not being done that you feel should be done. I think everyone agrees we should try to minimize fatalities. We're passed the point of minimizing spread. It's going to spread. We can't shut down and quarantine the world. People have to do the basics like they do to prevent the spread of anything else -- wash your hands, don't touch your face, etc. etc. That's all private citizens can do. But locking yourself in your home with a mask on if you're perfectly healthy, is not the answer. Live your life.

 

We have to deal with the likelihood that this will be an ongoing issue and likely strike seasonally like many other conditions this time of year. As we learn more, hopefully vaccines will be developed and we'll be in a better position to deal with this in the future. And hopefully we'll get some seasonal benefit in the summer to slow things down and buy more time to better handle COVID-19 when this comes around again next year.

[tmwiese55]

It's missed on the people that continue to say thing like "we're overreacting", "the normal flu is worse", "there is no difference between this and the normal flu", "they hype these things all the time and they never amount to anything", etc. Basically the faction that continue to act like this is all media overblown BS. The several weeks latency is one that specifically makes it different than past hyped viruses like SARS. The other dumb part will be that all the stuff Adam just pointed that is being done will help like it's supposed to and make this not a huge huge thing and people will say "see I was right".

 

I know there's always a faction that has to complain so it is what it is. But you're running the same risk of, as an example, everyone leading up those hurricanes the last few years or Katrina that said "ah this all overblown, this happens all the time and it's no big deal", then boom.

 

I agree with that among people open minded and willing to learn that isn't being missed. But, since I've started digging into this a bit about last Wednesday to now and speaking with people since almost no one I talked to were aware on the higher death rate vs normal flu (they'd heard the 'more likely to die from normal flu thing' and never thought beyond it) and none knew of the several weeks with no symptoms point.

 

Also, "the this isn't happening" line I had was in reference to people agreeing, not that actions by medical people aren't happening. I see the phrasing could've been confusing. I meant that you can't even get everyone to agree to take it seriously, there has to always be a chunk acting like it's all BS and made up, and of course turning it political.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

"Taking it seriously" is one of those things to me like "we weren't ready to play" where people just say it but nobody really can explain what it means. Like what am I supposed to do take coronavirus seriously, other than wash my hands, eat fruits and veggies and sleep 9 hours a night? I was doing that already. Taking it seriously is the job of the CDC and border people. I pay a minimal amount of attention to the news and I don't think keeping my eyes on it would do anything for anyone. If it explodes to I Am Legend levels I'm dead anyway. I couldn't care less about being right, it's not about that, it's about accepting the reality of zero control over a most likely unfortunate but exaggerated situation.

[tmwiese55]

"Taking it seriously" is one of those things to me like "we weren't ready to play" where people just say it but nobody really can explain what it means. Like what am I supposed to do take coronavirus seriously, other than wash my hands, eat fruits and veggies and sleep 9 hours a night? I was doing that already. Taking it seriously is the job of the CDC and border people. I pay a minimal amount of attention to the news and I don't think keeping my eyes on it would do anything for anyone. If it explodes to I Am Legend levels I'm dead anyway. I couldn't care less about being right, it's not about that, it's about accepting the reality of zero control over a most likely unfortunate but exaggerated situation.

 

First thing would be stop repeating to others how it's BS and spreading falsehoods along the lines of "this is like any other flu, no need to do anything differently". That's the first thing and really my main point. That spread of disinformation hurts people from doing the next things, such as you point out in washing hands. Staying home if you're sick at all. Later things like cancelling sporting events and conferences could happen, closing schools could happen, things like that. It's much easier to do those things if the people involved don't have this attitude. It would be beneficial if you didn't have a large chunk of the population the whole time saying "you guys are nuts, this is all BS" and not listening. For example, as a big Vegas guy they cancelled some conference this week and twitter outrage is purely on the "this is dumb, people are overreacting" type viewpoint rather than accepting that they listened to the advice of medical professionals and shut it down. Read up a bit about what they said how this spread so much in Iran, it's kind of exactly what I'm talking about here. The government and huge chunk of population ignored it all and now they're one of the worst spots. Take it serious, listen to the advice and recommendations, etc. Panicking and locking yourself in the house at this point is an overreaction of course.

[wildcat83]

I saw a cartoon yesterday that was a Halloween costume couple with one "Coronavirus" and one "Limes Disease" holding hands....

 

Not to totally downplay an world wide health issue... but it made me laugh.

[Baldkin]

The problem isn't as much the virus' mortality rate, it's the length of care that is required for those who do survive - 2+ week hospital stays.

 

This virus, if we continue as we are as a nation, is going to overwhelm our hospital infrastructure and cause many more deaths as a result.

 

The goal, right now, needs to be to slow the spread of the virus so we don't overwhelm our hospitals. It's not inciting a panic, it's not being a worrywort. It's science and math.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

[hawing]

I find myself alternating between various degrees of alarm over the coronavirus. For the most part, I don't fear a lot for my safety (though I know plenty of others who are in an age group and/or whose overall health status put them at greater risk).

 

I'm more wary of having to manage reactions at the library. UW-Madison starts spring break in two days and many people will leave town for all kinds of destinations...and then come back. If one of my student employees returns with a cough, do I have to send them home? If I clear my throat and an elderly researcher freaks out, how do we calm them down? If one of my students has helicopter parents who are all YOU'RE NOT GOING BACK TO THAT CAMPUS UNTIL THIS BLOWS OVER, after how much absenteeism can we actually alter library hours so I'm not working 13 hour days?

 

There's virtually no way UW-Madison isn't discussing contingency plans, but whatever they're discussing is being kept close to the chest. I'd prefer to have at least some idea of what they're considering. My agency is separate from UW and they're not saying much either, if they are making plans.

 

I also hate the idea of having to wait longer than two weeks to get an in-person baseball fix, but in the big picture I realize that's secondary. If the opening homestand is played without fans and I miss out on chc and stl people, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

[Patrick425]

I would be curious to see how this whole situation would have played out in the world and in the U.S. prior to the internet and around-the-clock news cycle era.

[PeaveyFury]

I think it will be interesting to see what the numbers begin to look like now that expanded testing should more accurately capture the denominator in the mortality rate. I’m also curious to see what access to care in Europe/the US does to those rates vs. the initial cases as well.

[MrTPlush]

I believe Milwaukee doubled their Spring Break and I know many of the UW colleges have been gauging their students ability to do classes online.

[homer]

There isn't a reason to panic but there is a reason to be concerned. Getting info from TV News and TV doctors probably isn't wise. As mentioned above, the real issue isn't the mortality rate from the virus itself but from everyone getting it within a short period of time thus inundating our healthcare system. Italy's hospitals are bursting at the seams right now.

[stalton]

Hawing, I heard UW Madison is shutting down. How does that affect you?

[owbc]

Things in Seattle were generally normal except most people have been working from home and there are no tourists anywhere. Today's announcement banning large gatherings is a major escalation. It sounds like small gatherings will be restricted as well. Although I already mostly work from home I'm preparing to be really bored for a couple weeks with virtually everything canceled. It's also going to be really hard on small businesses.

[xisxisxis]

True, the flu does kill a lot more, but more people catch the flu. Mortality rates for the flu are .16%. Whereas this current virus is 2%. I personally think it is definitely something that needs to be kept in our thoughts.

One issue to keep in mind is the transmission rate. The flu has been around forever, there are probably thousands of strains and many people are vaccinated each year. Yet, we still have significant numbers of deaths (20-60K per year). Everyone has antibodies to a subset of influenza which provides partial protection and slows transmission. Nobody has immunity to COVID-19 so there will be an extremely high transmission rate as there isn't any part of the population that is currently protected. With the slow progress to symptoms there will be significant time for an infected individual to infect others.

 

So in theory this is a very serious health outbreak. It appears shutting down areas of infection for ~4-6 weeks is successful with reducing the transmission and containing the issue. Efforts should be made to test anyone who has had an interaction with an infected individual and for many people to self isolate as possible in affected areas and for people outside effected ares who have had contact with individuals in those areas.

[xisxisxis]

I think it will be interesting to see what the numbers begin to look like now that expanded testing should more accurately capture the denominator in the mortality rate. I’m also curious to see what access to care in Europe/the US does to those rates vs. the initial cases as well.

 

The Chinese repurposed numerous hospitals as treatment centers to handle the influx of individuals and modified existing instruments to help reduce mortality. For serious cases they received oxygenation of RBC outside the body as their lungs were shutting down. That means lots of people on dialysis with the proper machinery to highly oxygenate the blood. It's not clear the US health industry can 1) act in a coordinated manner as in a dictatorship, and 2) even have the necessary hardware to deal with a large number of infected/severe cases.

[TURBO]

So all the colleges are shutting down, while all their students are traveling...

 

Seems a bit counterproductive. Imagine the number of students getting infected on spring break. If they stayed home, would there be as much reason to shut down campuses?