2020 Lineup

[sveumrules]

Team wRC+ is currently at 82, two days ago it was 77, so the PAs are still low enough it can move a couple two tree points either way with a good or bad game offensively.

 

Our current runs scored per game is 4.00, projected rest of season is 4.84 so the math still believes pretty significant positive regression is incoming.

 

I checked team wRC+ leaderboards through around 32 games in 2019, then compared where the bad/underperforming teams were at by game 60. Here's what happened...

 

(32 game wRC+ / 60 game wRC+ / difference) 162 game wRC+

 

SFG (67 / 78 / +11) 88

CLE (67 / 77 / +10) 94

MIA (72 / 75 / +3) 84

COL (73 / 93 / +20) 92

CIN (73 / 87 / +14) 94

TOR (77 / 73 / -4) 92

PIT (78 / 92 / +14) 97

DET (80 / 73 / -7) 77

SDP (82 / 89 / +7) 93

BAL (83 / 81 / -2) 89

BOS (86 / 102 / +12) 107

 

Even from game 32-60 most of the underperforming teams saw sizable positive regression, outside of a handful of teams who the 162 game wRC+ indicated just were who they were, as it were.

 

I don't think we'll make it back to the 102 wRC+ our non-pitchers posted last year, but it looks like the numbers make a pretty compelling case that we'll end up closer to that number than our current 82 mark.

[Lathund]

One way to look at it would be through Statcasts "expected" stats. Brewers have the 3rd largest difference between wOBA (.291) and xwOBA (.327). To put that into more familiar terms, the teams closest to a .327 wOBA are the Rays and Braves at .324 and Nationals at .329; their overall slash lines as teams are .244/.334/.428, .254/.321/.448 and .268/.336/.443. While the Brewers currently are .212/.297/.380. Which is not necessarily as simple as saying that's what the Brewers true talent level is or that that's where they will or even should end up, but it does tell us something about the fortunes of Brewers' batted balls.

 

However knowing that the Brewers can/should/will do better, even if accurate, doesn't really make losing to the Pirates much more enjoyable.

[Eye Black]

Counsell mentioned Keston Hiura as someone that may see some time at 1B in his pregame press briefing today.

 

Via Will Sammon...

 

Counsell: Vogelbach's ABs will predominately come as DH. Gyorko will see action at 1B. Mentioned Peterson and Mathias as guys who could get innings there.

 

Added Keston Hiura could see action there, too.

[Eye Black]

Some additional explanation from Adam McCalvy...

 

Vogelbach will primarily get at-bats as the Brewers DH. First base will be a mix of players. Gyorko, Jace Peterson and even Keston Hiura will play first, per Craig Counsell.

 

Re: Hiura at first base. He hasn't done any work there, so you won't see it imminently. Might not see it at all. But it's possible, as the Brewers consider all of the possibilities to get something out of this offense.

[Devinep]

Some additional explanation from Adam McCalvy...

 

Vogelbach will primarily get at-bats as the Brewers DH. First base will be a mix of players. Gyorko, Jace Peterson and even Keston Hiura will play first, per Craig Counsell.

 

Re: Hiura at first base. He hasn't done any work there, so you won't see it imminently. Might not see it at all. But it's possible, as the Brewers consider all of the possibilities to get something out of this offense.

 

LOL at Jace Peterson playing 1B in a supposedly competitive season

[3and2Fastball]

I agree Hiura will be an "everyday" player, but in a small sample of MLB PAs, he's been much better vs RHP. Anyone know how he did in the minors vs LHP? Was last year just a small sample anomaly, or should he sit sometimes against lefties?

 

His MiLB splits were also a little better vs RHP. Trout has also been like that his whole career, and Trout has extreme split differences this year and is really struggling vs LHP. I’m no hitting expert but I’m guessing that they struggle with the sliders from lefties coming in on their hands. Keston is great at shooting a slider from a righty into right field.

[ecjimg]

“LOL at Jace Peterson playing 1B in a supposedly competitive season”

Yeh like Alex Gonzalez and Rafael Bentancourt

[trwi7]

“LOL at Jace Peterson playing 1B in a supposedly competitive season”

Yeh like Alex Gonzalez and Rafael Bentancourt

 

Yuni. Rafael was a relief pitch and never a Brewer.

[Devinep]

“LOL at Jace Peterson playing 1B in a supposedly competitive season”

Yeh like Alex Gonzalez and Rafael Bentancourt

 

No one:

 

brewers: first base should be a spot to throw a leftover utility infielder

[Jopal78]

If there is a stretch run in this team they need to start putting the gas pedal down. Screw the matchups and just play your 9 best hitters every night.

 

1: Urias 3B

2: Yelich LF

3: Hiura 2B

4: Gyorko 1B

5: Braun RF

6: Vogelbach DH

7: Narvaez/Nottingham C

8: Arcia SS

9: Garcia CF

 

Still have versatility on the bench and the ability to play matchups later with: Sogard, Peterson, Mathias, Gamel, Taylor, etc.

[Jopal78]

If there is a stretch run in this team they need to start putting the gas pedal down. Screw the matchups and just play your 9 best hitters every night.

 

1: Urias 3B

2: Yelich LF

3: Hiura 2B

4: Gyorko 1B

5: Braun RF

6: Vogelbach DH

7: Narvaez/Nottingham C

8: Arcia SS

9: Garcia CF

 

Still have versatility on the bench and the ability to play matchups later with: Sogard, Peterson, Mathias, Gamel, Taylor, etc.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If there is a stretch run in this team they need to start putting the gas pedal down. Screw the matchups and just play your 9 best hitters every night.

 

1: Urias 3B

2: Yelich LF

3: Hiura 2B

4: Gyorko 1B

5: Braun RF

6: Vogelbach DH

7: Narvaez/Nottingham C

8: Arcia SS

9: Garcia CF

 

Still have versatility on the bench and the ability to play matchups later with: Sogard, Peterson, Mathias, Gamel, Taylor, etc.

 

I don't know if Vogelbach should ever see an AB against a LH pitcher if they can help it. Maybe those can be Braun DH days, and let Taylor play CF.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If there is a stretch run in this team they need to start putting the gas pedal down. Screw the matchups and just play your 9 best hitters every night.

 

1: Urias 3B

2: Yelich LF

3: Hiura 2B

4: Gyorko 1B

5: Braun RF

6: Vogelbach DH

7: Narvaez/Nottingham C

8: Arcia SS

9: Garcia CF

 

Still have versatility on the bench and the ability to play matchups later with: Sogard, Peterson, Mathias, Gamel, Taylor, etc.

 

I don't know if Vogelbach should ever see an AB against a LH pitcher if they can help it. Maybe those can be Braun DH days, and let Taylor play CF.