2020 Lineup

[sveumrules]

The way the roster is currently constructed is there enough power in the lineup to truly contend? I dont think the Brewers will be in the top half in HR’s this year.

 

Last year we hit the 3rd most HRs in the NL (250), but were only 9th in runs scored (769). I would guess we end up lower in HR, but wouldn't be surprised at all if we scored more runs.

 

Assuming no more moves are made (I'm not convinced), the ball is as juicy as last year & average health, my back of the envelope median HR ranges for the 13 position players would probably be something like...

 

Omar (12-25) Manny (5-10) Smoak (20-30) Braun (15-25) Keston (25-35) Urias (10-25) Sogard (5-15) Gyorko (5-15) Arcia (5-15) Avisail (15-25) Lorenzo (10-15) Yelich (35-50) Gamel (5-10)

 

Putting it all together I'd guess the 2020 Brewers will hit 222 home runs.

[DuWayne Steurer]

You forgot to add 2 for Woodruff.... :D

[stalton]

You forgot to add 2 for Woodruff.... :D

 

.....and The Raptor

[benji]

I like the Woodruff idea lol.

 

I think those are a little hopeful for Smoak and Braun. I hope I am wrong.

 

I agree though the runs scored last year was too low. Hopefully getting an offense with less K’s will increase the overall goal of runs scored.

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KeithStone53151]

I know a few have noted the loss of power to the lineup, but one thing I really like is the added hitting ability. We more are less are swapping Grandal/Moose/Arcia/Thames with Narvaez/Sogard(Gyorko)/Urias/Smoak. Below are the high and low avg over the last 3 years.

 

Grandal - .241-.247, Narvaez .275-.278

Moose - .251-.272, Sogard(Gyorko) - .134-.290 and .174-.272

Arcia - .223-.277, Urias - .208-.223 MLB/.296-.315 MILB

Thames - .219-.247, Smoak .208-.270

 

In the first 3 cases, the batting average should definitely improve for the first 3 of those positions. 1st base is probably overall a push, though Smoak might be better than Thames if he gets platooned and limited AB as a RHH. The lows for Sogard and Gyorko were clearly off years, the other 2 years were much close to the high end of the scale than their off year mark. And with 2 guys likely platooning, the odds of both being similar to their off years is very low. At least one of those guys should be good. This also doesn't factor in the addition of Garcia, who is more or less a .280 hitter. I point this out, because having a team that overall hits better for average is less reliant on the home run ball to score and should be more consistent. We should have less of those prolonged stretches of crap offense waiting for Moose or Grandal or Yelich to get ahold of one.

[TURBO]

I really wish I could be as positive as a lot of you.

 

I just don't see this line-up as playoff caliber.

 

Right now, in my eyes, we are going to be fighting the Cubs for 3rd place in the division.

 

This can be painted in a million different ways, but to think this line-up is as good as last years is a bit crazy imo.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I really wish I could be as positive as a lot of you.

 

I just don't see this line-up as playoff caliber.

 

Right now, in my eyes, we are going to be fighting the Cubs for 3rd place in the division.

 

This can be painted in a million different ways, but to think this line-up is as good as last years is a bit crazy imo.

 

Probably not as good on paper as last year's. But very comparable to 2018. Obviously a lot of hope that the newcomers hit the ground running.

[TURBO]

I really wish I could be as positive as a lot of you.

 

I just don't see this line-up as playoff caliber.

 

Right now, in my eyes, we are going to be fighting the Cubs for 3rd place in the division.

 

This can be painted in a million different ways, but to think this line-up is as good as last years is a bit crazy imo.

 

Probably not as good on paper as last year's. But very comparable to 2018. Obviously a lot of hope that the newcomers hit the ground running.

 

I just think that a LOT of things are going to have to go right for us to even have a shot at the playoffs. Odds are against us imo.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I really wish I could be as positive as a lot of you.

 

I just don't see this line-up as playoff caliber.

 

Right now, in my eyes, we are going to be fighting the Cubs for 3rd place in the division.

 

This can be painted in a million different ways, but to think this line-up is as good as last years is a bit crazy imo.

 

Probably not as good on paper as last year's. But very comparable to 2018. Obviously a lot of hope that the newcomers hit the ground running.

 

I just think that a LOT of things are going to have to go right for us to even have a shot at the playoffs. Odds are against us imo.

 

That is likely. But at the same time, SO many things went wrong last season, and they still found a way in. Cain, Arcia, Aguilar and Shaw were black holes offensively. Chacin, Burnes and Peralta (3/5ths of the rotation) were terrible. Knebel goes down in Spring Training. Best starting pitcher misses a huge chunk of the season. Wonderkind rookie 2B goes down with a big injury during the stretch run. Your MVP who carried the team all season goes down in early September. I mean, last year was a perfect storm of terrible things, yet they still found a way.

 

Personally, I'm never going to count this team out again until the math just doesn't work anymore.

[sveumrules]

This can be painted in a million different ways, but to think this line-up is as good as last years is a bit crazy imo.

 

Brewers C 2019: 118 wRC+

Narvaez 2017-19: 115 wRC+

Manny 2017-19: 90 wRC+

 

Brewers 1B 2019: 107 wRC+

Smoak 2017-19: 120 wRC+

Braun 2017-19: 111 wRC+

 

Brewers 2B 2019: 124 wRC+

Keston 2017-19: 139 wRC+ (348 MLB PAs) 155 wRC+ (AAA) 116 wRC+ (AA)

 

Brewers SS 2019: 56 wRC+

Urias 2017-19: 79 wRC+ (302 MLB PAs) 131 wRC+ (AAA) 124 wRC+ (AA)

Arcia 2017-19: 69 wRC+

 

Brewers 3B 2019: 73 wRC+

Gyorko 2017-19: 105 wRC+

Sogard 2017-19: 99 wRC+

 

Brewers LF 2019: 125 wRC+

Avisail 2017-19: 117 wRC+

Braun 2017-19: 111 wRC+

 

Brewers CF 2019: 80 wRC+

Cain 2017-19: 107 wRC+

Gamel 2017-19: 97 wRC+

 

Brewers RF 2019: 151 wRC+

Yelich 2017-19: 151 wRC+

[TURBO]

^Thanks for the information, but I'll believe it when I see it.

[benji]

The one thing is that will help is that they will be mixing and matching the lineup so that each batter will only face the style of pitchers they have had success against. Platoon splits, some hitters are better against hard stuff vs slow stuff etc. Arcia will play when ground ball pitchers are on the mound etc.

 

So basically Sterns and Counsell are tasked with maximizing the upside of the ranges for each player. That is at least the plan as I see it.

[benji]

The one thing is that will help is that they will be mixing and matching the lineup so that each batter will only face the style of pitchers they have had success against. Platoon splits, some hitters are better against hard stuff vs slow stuff etc. Arcia will play when ground ball pitchers are on the mound etc.

 

So basically Sterns and Counsell are tasked with maximizing the upside of the ranges for each player. That is at least the plan as I see it.

[Jopal78]

I'm sure someone mentioned it earlier, but perhaps overlooked in all this is the sheer number of at bats the Brewers wasted in 2018 and 2019 on terrible hitters:

 

Hernan Perez 548ABs .243/.279/.383

Tyler Saladino 183ABs .202/.265/.278

Cory Spangenberg 95 ABs .232/.277/.358

Orlando Arcia 842ABs .228/.277/.333

 

If the plan was to improve the team by raising smoothing out the peaks and valleys between their best hitters and their worst hitters, it just could work in their entire batting order being more formidable day in day out. They've also added three starting pitchers which they're banking to offer better results than the Davies, Anderson, Chacin trifecta, another real possibility.

[TJseven7]

 

That is likely. But at the same time, SO many things went wrong last season, and they still found a way in. Cain, Arcia, Aguilar and Shaw were black holes offensively. Chacin, Burnes and Peralta (3/5ths of the rotation) were terrible. Knebel goes down in Spring Training. Best starting pitcher misses a huge chunk of the season. Wonderkind rookie 2B goes down with a big injury during the stretch run. Your MVP who carried the team all season goes down in early September. I mean, last year was a perfect storm of terrible things, yet they still found a way.

 

Personally, I'm never going to count this team out again until the math just doesn't work anymore.

 

I keep looking at 2 guys. I'm not concerned about the power throughout the line up. I'm not concerned with 3b batting down the order unless Gyorko is mashing LHs. I'm not concerned with depth anywhere.

 

2 guys can make or break this lineup. Cain, Urias. They need to get on base. Cain can not be sub 330 OBP again. His BA dropped 48 points. That can stay as is. His obp dropped an additional 22 points. He needs that back. If he can rebound to 350 range then he's the lead off guy MKE needs. Cain truly isn't a lead off guy vs LHP (OPS improves) and if Urias can also post a strong OBP number he can either bat the 9 hole vs lefties or push Cain down the lineup where he can increase the depth of the middle of the lineup.

 

Basically these guys need:

Cain 350 and Urias 350 vs LHP. If they can do that this lineup will score more runs than last year.

[RobDeer 45]

Question, is this one of the more flexible rosters we've had in recent years? If so, do some of these overall stats mean less? If you're able to work around bad matchups, slumps, etc, do you put your team in a better place to win more games? It seems that CC is a very creative manager and he will have a lot to work with on a day to day basis. Just a random thought that I had recently.

[TJseven7]

Question, is this one of the more flexible rosters we've had in recent years? If so, do some of these overall stats mean less? If you're able to work around bad matchups, slumps, etc, do you put your team in a better place to win more games? It seems that CC is a very creative manager and he will have a lot to work with on a day to day basis. Just a random thought that I had recently.

 

I think the 13th bat is being worked pretty hard in the new Brewers model. They've always been a team that platoons 1b into a cheap elite bat. I think they decided that 3b was next up with the 13th bat addition. I'm not sure this can avoid slumps, but it helps with load management and they can L/R the starting pitcher pretty severely. In theory our weak spots are Gamel (who looks pretty good on reversed splits) and Arcia. Those two put up 900 AB last year. That's not likely in 2020.

 

As for flexibility. They've always had a lot of flexibility defensively, but right now they look to have players who can do that defensively while supplying good ABs.

[RobDeer 45]

Question, is this one of the more flexible rosters we've had in recent years? If so, do some of these overall stats mean less? If you're able to work around bad matchups, slumps, etc, do you put your team in a better place to win more games? It seems that CC is a very creative manager and he will have a lot to work with on a day to day basis. Just a random thought that I had recently.

 

I think the 13th bat is being worked pretty hard in the new Brewers model. They've always been a team that platoons 1b into a cheap elite bat. I think they decided that 3b was next up with the 13th bat addition. I'm not sure this can avoid slumps, but it helps with load management and they can L/R the starting pitcher pretty severely. In theory our weak spots are Gamel (who looks pretty good on reversed splits) and Arcia. Those two put up 900 AB last year. That's not likely in 2020.

 

As for flexibility. They've always had a lot of flexibility defensively, but right now they look to have players who can do that defensively while supplying good ABs.

 

Yes to clarify I think the players will go on slumps, but with more flexibility will Craig be able to lean on other players more while said player isn't hitting well. And that comes with more guys being able to pay more positions, guys having good splits, or being able to switch hit. Same goes with matchups, getting more players better matchups because of that flexibility.

[TJseven7]

I don't think you can effectively avoid slumps. You can't tell when a guys going into one or coming out of one. I don't think analytics believes in slumps either. They are just a temporary variance in the statistical norm. However, load management gets healthy bats in the lineup and putting a guy in better match ups has proved itself time and time again. I guess what I'm trying to get at is that you shouldn't try to avoid slumps. You should try to avoid playing beat up players who can't perform to their standards in the state that they are in.

 

They've put 11.5 mil into 3 of the 4 pieces of the CIF group and platoons project really well. If Braun plays some 1b vs LHP, Smoak will play less than he has in the past 3 years. A guy like Gyorko who is known for getting nicked up can straight platoon with Sogard at 3b and play under half a seasons worth of games well. Sogard can focus on RHP where his numbers in 2017 and 2019 have been very strong. Put all that together and you're not even at Moose money in 2020.

 

Players in position to succeed and a work load that should keep them healthy and productive should do the trick without getting too fancy beyond that.

[brewmann04]

They have some good Depth but not sure if they will be more productive .

[Jopal78]

Frankly I kind of like what Stearns has done with this lineup.

 

Three premium hitters are gone in Grandal, Moustakas and Thames, however the 2019 Brewers gave over 1300 plate appearances to hitters with an OPS less than .715. In 2020 I think it is reasonable to expect that all their new acquisitions: Garcia, Smoak, Sogard, Gyorko, Healy and Navarez to produce an OPS in excess of .750 (I'm not as convinced with Sogard but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt).

 

So there might not be as many elite hitters in the lineup in 2020 but the aggregate talent level of their hitters more likely than not is greater than in 2019. Stearns also got a club option on Smoak, Sogard, and Gyorko. If those hitters have big seasons and the team takes a face plant, the GM has some nice trade capital as none of those players would be a pure "rental". Secondly, if those players fall flat in 2020, they simply decline the options and move on.

 

Garcia is a key acquisition because he will potentially replace Ryan Braun in the outfield if Braun decides to play elsewhere after the team declines his 2021 option. Plus, the signing of Garcia would have made Grisham a surplus part. Stearns had the foresight to cash in Grisham in for a much needed infield prospect.

 

Finally, Stearns remade his pitching staff with pitchers offering upside: Brett Anderson, Lindblom, and Lauer. Obviously, Stearns had seen enough of Chase Anderson to know his anticipated production would not have been equal to the pay his contract called for. Gonzalez missed 6 weeks with an injury and was exclusively a 5 innings plus SP. Lauer is probably less than Davies, but does throw left handed. More importantly these deals potentially fill the pitching staff, yet Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes could still win spots in the rotation. Obviously, the GM knows that to remain competitive for extended periods of time he needs to develop starting pitching from within. These moves solidify his rotation but doesn't block to of his young pitchers who have legit talent to be above average MLB starting pitchers.

[KeithStone53151]

You were on a roll with a lot of good points, until you referred to Brett Anderson as a pitcher with upside...

[tdcarney22]

I haven't made up my mind about the pitching staff, but I agree with your points about the lineup. I expect opposing pitchers to have to work a little bit more to get through our lineup rather than have the 6-8 spots just be automatic outs. I expect some "major league" at-bats to be happening across our entire lineup.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I really wish I could be as positive as a lot of you.

 

I just don't see this line-up as playoff caliber.

 

Right now, in my eyes, we are going to be fighting the Cubs for 3rd place in the division.

 

This can be painted in a million different ways, but to think this line-up is as good as last years is a bit crazy imo.

 

Probably not as good on paper as last year's. But very comparable to 2018. Obviously a lot of hope that the newcomers hit the ground running.

 

I just think that a LOT of things are going to have to go right for us to even have a shot at the playoffs. Odds are against us imo.

 

 

You may be right, but when you consider how much went wrong last year and they still made it, it might not be as much as you think. September made a lot of people forget how many things went poorly. I think it would be fairly hard for them to have as much bad fortune as they did last year. I feel confident they won't have two corner infields hitting .150 again, but maybe they will.

[brewcrewdue80]

I seen the 2019-2020 rumors thread listing lineups with Arenado. Knew this thread was around. Been a Feb month since last post in here giving it a bump as ST approaches. Hearing the best shape stuff Gyorko comes to mind being a hopeful 3b game taker from Sogard optimism. Look forward to games!