Hyun-Jin Ryu signs with Blue Jays 4yr 80 million

[TJseven7]

Ryu has averaged 22 starts in the last 2 years with a combined 2.21 ERA with a 184 ERA+

 

 

So paying him 20 is like paying another elite arm 30? You are getting roughly 2/3rds of the starts.

 

Give me Rich Hill for 1 year and no future concerns of the deal blowing up in our face. He's not as flashy but carries none of the risk. He's a poor mans Ryu.

[adambr2]

Hill would be a fine signing but he won't be ready for early 2020. I'd only count on him for the second half of the season if you sign him.

[Underachiever]

Wouldn’t it be better to have the same or better team for less allowing us to take on a contract at mid-season if we need to to improve the team? Why is payroll flexibility gross?

 

It would be better to be a better team. If there is payroll flexibility at mid-season, that is great. However we have repeatedly seen the Brewers have to overuse their top pitchers in the 1st Half of a season which effects their performance at the end of the season.

 

Personally I think Ryu would have been a great roll of the dice. I think the Brewers need more TOR pitching. It seems to me that there is a bigger chance of the Brewers being not quite good enough to be a legit World Series contender than we are in danger of overdoing it with payroll.

 

Thankfully we have David Stearns at the helm. He still might be able to craft a team that can win it all. He’s shown the ability to get the Brewers a superstar or two and make lemonade out of the lemons he’s limited to in payroll.

 

Can you give examples of the bold statement? It doesn't ring true with me.

[3and2Fastball]

It’s actually difficult to find relief pitchers in recent Brewers history that weren’t overused. I will say that such a phenomenon isn’t unique to the Brewers, it happens throughout Baseball. Relief pitchers are used up like disposable pieces and then replaced with the next 99 mph throwing 1.250 WHIP guy

 

The problem is that “small market teams” (I hate that term, it attempts to validate every excuse Mark has under the sun) like the Brewers can not afford to overuse arms because by the end of the season they don’t have the big horses as starting pitchers who can take the team on their backs (at least they haven’t since Sabathia)...

 

Edit to say: look at Jeffress in 2018. Through June he had thrown 40 Innings. He threw 43 innings in 2018 on either 0 or 1 days rest. By August & September his arm was shot. He was running on fumes in the postseason. He’s never been the same since. Look at Knebel, they blew through his arm till his UCL gave out... Hader didn’t look the same at the end of 2019...I’m sure we could go on & on with this

[clancyphile]

Anderson is a quality player - he posted some very good numbers. Yes, it's 1 year, $5 million, but there is a higher floor than Ryu, albeit a lower ceiling. Lindblom is also a quality signing - with very good performance in KBO. If he is even 80% of what he was in KBO, that's a huge boost. Urias is a quality shortstop who can pair with Hiura.

 

There have been quality acquisitions. No big names, but good players.

 

Anderson does not have a higher floor than Ryu. He has the same injury concerns.

 

I think Anderson has a better track record.

 

Most importantly, the Brewers are on the hook for three fewer years and $75 million less if this goes bad.

[areacodes]

Wouldn’t it be better to have the same or better team for less allowing us to take on a contract at mid-season if we need to to improve the team? Why is payroll flexibility gross?

 

It would be better to be a better team. If there is payroll flexibility at mid-season, that is great. However we have repeatedly seen the Brewers have to overuse their top pitchers in the 1st Half of a season which effects their performance at the end of the season.

 

Personally I think Ryu would have been a great roll of the dice. I think the Brewers need more TOR pitching. It seems to me that there is a bigger chance of the Brewers being not quite good enough to be a legit World Series contender than we are in danger of overdoing it with payroll.

 

Thankfully we have David Stearns at the helm. He still might be able to craft a team that can win it all. He’s shown the ability to get the Brewers a superstar or two and make lemonade out of the lemons he’s limited to in payroll.

 

Well, good news then. The off-season isn’t over and it is conceivable that the Brewers are as good or a better team already than last year AND we have a chance to keep adding to it since there are still players available thru FA or trade.

 

My response that you quoted was about somebody saying it is gross that they are going into the year with a lower payroll when we’ve made it to the playoffs in back to back years. A lower payroll doesn’t always mean a worse team just like a higher payroll doesn’t guarantee the playoffs or World Series. They could still add some quality players and come in under last years payroll, would that still be gross?

 

For the record, I wanted Ryu as well but I’m not sure it would have been wise to pay a pitcher $20m per year when he’s averaged around 20 starts the last two years.

[monty57]

I would have liked Ryu, but four years is just too risky with his injury history. The Brewers cannot afford to have $20M in dead money for a season or two. I'd take Ryu on a year or two, but if we're going four years on someone, they need to be younger and/or more durable.

 

Like it or not, the financial structure of baseball is what it is. We need to pay 26 guys on the MLB roster, so paying one of them $20M means we have a lot less for the other 25 guys. Therefore, that one player had better be a "sure thing" to stay relatively injury-free while playing at a high level for the duration of the contract. There is certainly reason to believe that a 35/36 year old Ryu will not be injury-free or playing at a high level.

[3and2Fastball]

Considering everything, it’s really too bad that the Brewers weren’t able to get rid of Braun’s contract many years ago. He hasn’t been horrible, at all, but in the last 4 years they’ve paid him $79 million for 127 games per season and a .844 OPS and 2.1 WAR per season. If we are going to buy into “we cannot afford contracts like that” or “we can seldom afford contracts like that”, I’d much rather risk it on a pitcher with a Cy Young ceiling than an above average outfielder.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The lack of signing a big ticket starter has me even more convinced they are adding something significant at 3rd.

 

That being said - it wouldn't surprise me for the Brewers to also try bringing in a guy like Homer Bailey on a 1 year deal with an option to solidify their rotation depth...he was falling off a cliff as a Red but had a pretty good bounceback year with KC/Oak in 2019.

[82brewcrew82]

It’s actually difficult to find relief pitchers in recent Brewers history that weren’t overused. I will say that such a phenomenon isn’t unique to the Brewers, it happens throughout Baseball. Relief pitchers are used up like disposable pieces and then replaced with the next 99 mph throwing 1.250 WHIP guy

 

The problem is that “small market teams” (I hate that term, it attempts to validate every excuse Mark has under the sun) like the Brewers can not afford to overuse arms because by the end of the season they don’t have the big horses as starting pitchers who can take the team on their backs (at least they haven’t since Sabathia)...

 

Edit to say: look at Jeffress in 2018. Through June he had thrown 40 Innings. He threw 43 innings in 2018 on either 0 or 1 days rest. By August & September his arm was shot. He was running on fumes in the postseason. He’s never been the same since. Look at Knebel, they blew through his arm till his UCL gave out... Hader didn’t look the same at the end of 2019...I’m sure we could go on & on with this

I'm not sure your premise is on point here. Hader was fine in September and October. His issues were in July and August for the most part. If you are comparing 2019 Jeffress to 2018 Jeffress, I'm not surprised you saw a different pitcher. 2018 is clearly the outlier season for Jeffress and 2019 was much more consistent with his career numbers. The 2018 post season was just as likely the luck running out as it was anything else. Knebel threw almost 20 less innings in 2018 than he did in 2017. He threw less than 60 innings in 2018. Hardly over worked I think.

[monty57]

Considering everything, it’s really too bad that the Brewers weren’t able to get rid of Braun’s contract many years ago. He hasn’t been horrible, at all, but in the last 4 years they’ve paid him $79 million for 127 games per season and a .844 OPS and 2.1 WAR per season. If we are going to buy into “we cannot afford contracts like that” or “we can seldom afford contracts like that”, I’d much rather risk it on a pitcher with a Cy Young ceiling than an above average outfielder.

 

This is the thing. I'd say that most big money contracts that are signed, and certainly most long-term, big money contracts that have been signed with players over 30 since the "steroid era" have ended with teams wishing they could get out of the contracts.

 

That teams like the Red Sox and Cubs are trying to trade away their MVP-caliber players in order to shed payroll should be a warning to everyone to be careful. But, like lambs to the slaughter, as soon as one bad contract is off the books, teams (and fans) will gleefully walk right into the next one.

 

This offseason, the Cubs are trying to trade Bryant because they can't afford him and the bad/untradeable contracts they have. Therefore, if they trade him, they will be left with the bad, untradeable players and not have Bryant. Signing the bad contracts has put them in the situation where they will probably be a "second tier" team. As a Brewer fan, I like seeing the Cubs in that situation, but I realize that if it can happen to a big money team, that problem would be much worse if the Brewers signed a few bad contracts.

 

It's no fun to buy matching Toyota Corollas for you and your wife when your neighbor buys the Ferrari, but your happy for your decision when you get 150,000 relatively uneventful miles out of your Corollas while the neighbor's Ferrari is repossessed because he can't make the payments.

[3and2Fastball]

monty57: I agree... that’s why I cringe every time somebody suggests extending

Yelich... extending Woodruff? Sure... no way do I offer any position player a long term contract in or into their 30’s unless Mark significantly increases payroll.

[adambr2]

The lack of signing a big ticket starter has me even more convinced they are adding something significant at 3rd.

 

That being said - it wouldn't surprise me for the Brewers to also try bringing in a guy like Homer Bailey on a 1 year deal with an option to solidify their rotation depth...he was falling off a cliff as a Red but had a pretty good bounceback year with KC/Oak in 2019.

 

Like who? Donaldson is the only significant guy left. Unless you are talking about a significant trade.

[adambr2]

monty57: I agree... that’s why I cringe every time somebody suggests extending

Yelich... extending Woodruff? Sure... no way do I offer any position player a long term contract in or into their 30’s unless Mark significantly increases payroll.

 

Woodruff will be older when he hits free agency than Yelich will be when he hits it. No need at all to extend Woodruff.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The lack of signing a big ticket starter has me even more convinced they are adding something significant at 3rd.

 

That being said - it wouldn't surprise me for the Brewers to also try bringing in a guy like Homer Bailey on a 1 year deal with an option to solidify their rotation depth...he was falling off a cliff as a Red but had a pretty good bounceback year with KC/Oak in 2019.

 

Like who? Donaldson is the only significant guy left. Unless you are talking about a significant trade.

 

Lots of guys available via trade that would be needle movers...let's see how the Lindor sweepstakes shakes out, if he winds up with the right club there will be a guy or two available that arent really being mentioned currently

[JosephC]

Anderson is a quality player - he posted some very good numbers. Yes, it's 1 year, $5 million, but there is a higher floor than Ryu, albeit a lower ceiling. Lindblom is also a quality signing - with very good performance in KBO. If he is even 80% of what he was in KBO, that's a huge boost. Urias is a quality shortstop who can pair with Hiura.

 

There have been quality acquisitions. No big names, but good players.

 

Anderson does not have a higher floor than Ryu. He has the same injury concerns.

 

I think Anderson has a better track record.

 

Most importantly, the Brewers are on the hook for three fewer years and $75 million less if this goes bad.

 

I totally agree with the money aspect. But Anderson has a better track record? You must be joking.

 

In the last three years there have been 115 pitchers that have thrown at least 300 MLB innings.

 

Of those 115 pitchers, Ryu ranks 4th in ERA, 23rd in FIP and 19 in xFIP. Just randomly selecting xFIP, Ryu's ranking puts him in the same group as Syndergaard and Greinke.

 

Anderson ranks 85th in ERA, 67th in FIP and 79th in xFIP. Again, just taking xFIP, Anderson is in the same group as Junis and Roark.

 

There is nothing that indicates that Anderson has a better "track record" than Ryu.

 

Even with Ryu's extremely worrisome medical history, he has averaged 131 innings per season over the last three years where Anderson has only averaged 109.

 

If Ryu had pitched 480+ innings over the last three seasons, I think it's completely safe to say that his new contract would have killed what Wheeler got....and while he wouldn't have gotten what Strasburg got, his deal would have been a lot closer to the Strasburg deal than the Wheeler deal. I think this deal will blow up in Toronto's face, but on the flip side, if Ryu manages to put together 640+ innings over the next four years then the deal will probably be a bargain for Toronto. The guy is a top notch pitcher and, for whatever reason, I think he continues to perform at a high level if he can stay on the mound.

[MrTPlush]

Ryu has averaged 23 starts the last three years. For $20mil at his level of production that isn’t even bad at all. If he performed at that kind of level for three years, heck even two, and started 23 times for us every penny would be well spent (assuming the decline was gradual).

 

Point is he is so elite when pitching $20mil for 23 starts wouldn’t even be bad. In the end odds are it’s a total disaster for a contract, but it was a risk the Brewers could have easily made. If he stays elite for a few years that will really be unfortunate because there was our way to get an upper echelon performer on the mound.

 

I’m okay not making the move because it was quite risky, but I wouldn’t have minded seeing it either.