2020 Brewers Farm System Optimism Thread

[SomewhereInTime]

When looking at the farm system, many seem to believe the rankings too much. Quite frankly, there are many reasons for Brewers fans to have a lot optimism for the future.

 

For instance, Cooper Hummel is looking like the best offensive prospect nobody has heard of.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=669450

 

David Fry has been posting amazing offensive numbers - and showing versatility on the field.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=681807

 

Ryan Aguilar is a walk machine - who has put together the hitting, too.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=666922

 

Ernesto Wilson Martinez looks to be a huge power bat at first base:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=martin004ern

 

Max Lazar looks like an ace in the making:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=676661

 

Drew Rasmussen is emerging as a potential fireman in the bullpen:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=656876

 

Clayton Andrews is a two-way player:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=677076

 

And in a small sample, Michael Mediavilla just dominated:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=656728

 

So, which players do the folks at Brewerfan.net think will break out and catch the rest of baseball by surprise?

 

Well I definitely feel less optimistic when the thread is lead off by Cooper Hummel, David Fry, and Ryan Aguilar

[MadThinker88]

Well apparently Bleacher Report still feels the same about the Brewer system.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2869433-updated-farm-system-rankings-for-every-mlb-team-at-the-start-of-2020

 

At the end of the 2019 MiLB season the Brewers were 29th as well.

 

There were a few changes: Washington had been 27th & Boston was 30th.

Now Washington is 30th & Boston 28th.

 

This is all free content.

 

Here is who they (Bleacher Report/ Joel Reuter) have as the Brewer top 15 guys (10+ next 5).

Name Age Tier

1. SS Brice Turang 20 2

2. LHP Ethan Small 22 2

3. C Mario Feliciano 21 2

4. LHP Aaron Ashby 21 2

5. OF Tristen Lutz 21 3

6. RHP Drew Rasmussen 24 3

7. SS Eduardo Garcia 17 3

8. RHP Zack Brown 25 3

9. LHP Antoine Kelly 20 3

10. RHP Devin Williams 19 3

Next 5: OF Micah Bello, OF Corey Ray, OF Carlos Rodriguez, RHP Trey Supak, RHP Braden Webb

 

To Be Clear: I am not saying B/R is dead on accurate in their assessment. They have an opinion (at times well informed). I take their viewpoint and add it to the observations/ opinions of other places (Baseball America/ Baseball Prospectus/ Keith Law/ others) to get a more developed understanding.

[stalton]

If the Brewers supposedly are close to the bottom in minor league talent, then like the parent club, they have outperformed expectations/evaluations. According to Mad's counter, we had the 24th best record. Call it luck/ good management/whatever but when an organization top to bottom does better than people think they should, color me impressed.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Well apparently Bleacher Report still feels the same about the Brewer system.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2869433-updated-farm-system-rankings-for-every-mlb-team-at-the-start-of-2020

 

At the end of the 2019 MiLB season the Brewers were 29th as well.

 

There were a few changes: Washington had been 27th & Boston was 30th.

Now Washington is 30th & Boston 28th.

 

This is all free content.

 

Here is who they (Bleacher Report/ Joel Reuter) have as the Brewer top 15 guys (10+ next 5).

Name Age Tier

1. SS Brice Turang 20 2

2. LHP Ethan Small 22 2

3. C Mario Feliciano 21 2

4. LHP Aaron Ashby 21 2

5. OF Tristen Lutz 21 3

6. RHP Drew Rasmussen 24 3

7. SS Eduardo Garcia 17 3

8. RHP Zack Brown 25 3

9. LHP Antoine Kelly 20 3

10. RHP Devin Williams 19 3

Next 5: OF Micah Bello, OF Corey Ray, OF Carlos Rodriguez, RHP Trey Supak, RHP Braden Webb

 

To Be Clear: I am not saying B/R is dead on accurate in their assessment. They have an opinion (at times well informed). I take their viewpoint and add it to the observations/ opinions of other places (Baseball America/ Baseball Prospectus/ Keith Law/ others) is get a more developed understanding.

 

Look at the ages of the listed prospects on that list - that's what's exciting to me and also a pretty good reason why they are perceived to have a weak system. Their last top 15 overall draft pick from just 3 drafts ago (Hiura) has already played half a season in the majors and figures to be a middle of the order bat for years to come. Most of the prospects on this list haven't played enough to really establish what their ceiling might be as a MLBer, or are still too young to know for certain.

 

Had the Brewers' likely Opening Day 2B (Hiura) and SS (Urias) been eligible for this list, their system ranking is probably in the top half of MLB - but because of timing and the fact the Brewers seem to be adept at pushing prospects and young players who are ready to contribute at the MLB level through the system rapidly (See Hiura, Burnes and Peralta in 2018, Woodruff and Hader in 2017, even Arcia back in 2016), they tend to suppress their own system's rankings by not having these guys spend a ton of time dominating in AA-AAA and blowing up prospect tracking blogs before breaking into the bigs.

 

Yes, their system could use a few impact prospects - but that could easily still happen with the players they already have taking a big step in development. I'd rather see the low ranking with this group of players whose average age is at or below the legal drinking limit than a low ranking headlined by a bunch of 24-26 year old AAA'ers who hit a bunch of homers in hitter-friendly parks.

[clancyphile]

Look at the ages of the listed prospects on that list - that's what's exciting to me and also a pretty good reason why they are perceived to have a weak system. Their last top 15 overall draft pick from just 3 drafts ago (Hiura) has already played half a season in the majors and figures to be a middle of the order bat for years to come. Most of the prospects on this list haven't played enough to really establish what their ceiling might be as a MLBer, or are still too young to know for certain.

 

Had the Brewers' likely Opening Day 2B (Hiura) and SS (Urias) been eligible for this list, their system ranking is probably in the top half of MLB - but because of timing and the fact the Brewers seem to be adept at pushing prospects and young players who are ready to contribute at the MLB level through the system rapidly (See Hiura, Burnes and Peralta in 2018, Woodruff and Hader in 2017, even Arcia back in 2016), they tend to suppress their own system's rankings by not having these guys spend a ton of time dominating in AA-AAA and blowing up prospect tracking blogs before breaking into the bigs.

 

Yes, their system could use a few impact prospects - but that could easily still happen with the players they already have taking a big step in development. I'd rather see the low ranking with this group of players whose average age is at or below the legal drinking limit than a low ranking headlined by a bunch of 24-26 year old AAA'ers who hit a bunch of homers in hitter-friendly parks.

 

I think that the Brewers are doing better than many rankings indicate. Not just the youth of the ones they rank (and who have upside), but also in terms of later picks that the folks doing the ratings tend to ignore.

 

On the Brewers, for instance, Brandon Woodruff was an 11th-round pick in the 2014 draft. Suter was a 31st rounder in 2012. Yes we got LoCain as a free agent, but he was originally a 17-round pick of the Brewers in 2004. Jacob Barnes, who did well from 2016-2018, was a 14th-round pick in 2011.

 

Even among the prospects, Dylan File was a 21st-round pick in 2017. Alec Bettinger was a 10th-round pick in 2017. Clayton Andrews was a 17th-round pick in 2018 and already at AA. Michael Mediavilla, who has two consecutive years of sub-1.00 ERAs and a career WHIP of 0.640 - 34th round, 2018 draft. Quintin Torres-Costa was a 35th-round pick in the 2015 draft.

 

Some of the hitting prospects I like, like Cooper Hummel and Weston Wilson were also drafted later - in the 18th and 17th rounds of the 2018 draft. Cam Devanney was a 15th-round pick in 2019. Ryan Aguilar was a 31st-round pick in 2016.

[MadThinker88]

FYI: Baseball America had Tom H on its podcast on Thursday 1/9/20 discussing the Brewers top 10 prospects & the overall farm system.

 

Podcast ran almost 30 minutes..

[MadThinker88]

FYI: Baseball America had Tom H on its podcast on Thursday 1/9/20 discussing the Brewers top 10 prospects & the overall farm system.

 

Podcast ran almost 30 minutes..

[Mass Haas]

FYI: Baseball America had Tom H on its podcast on Thursday 1/9/20 discussing the Brewers top 10 prospects & the overall farm system.

 

Podcast ran almost 30 minutes..

 

AUDIO - Don't need a subscription

[Mass Haas]

FYI: Baseball America had Tom H on its podcast on Thursday 1/9/20 discussing the Brewers top 10 prospects & the overall farm system.

 

Podcast ran almost 30 minutes..

 

AUDIO - Don't need a subscription

[MadThinker88]

FYI: Baseball America had Tom H on its podcast on Thursday 1/9/20 discussing the Brewers top 10 prospects & the overall farm system.

 

Podcast ran almost 30 minutes..

 

AUDIO - Don't need a subscription

 

Thanks for adding the link...

I listen to the podcasts on my smart phone but connect to & respond to this board via my laptop...