2020 Brewers Farm System Optimism Thread

[clancyphile]

When looking at the farm system, many seem to believe the rankings too much. Quite frankly, there are many reasons for Brewers fans to have a lot optimism for the future.

 

For instance, Cooper Hummel is looking like the best offensive prospect nobody has heard of.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=669450

 

David Fry has been posting amazing offensive numbers - and showing versatility on the field.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=681807

 

Ryan Aguilar is a walk machine - who has put together the hitting, too.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=666922

 

Ernesto Wilson Martinez looks to be a huge power bat at first base:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=martin004ern

 

Max Lazar looks like an ace in the making:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=676661

 

Drew Rasmussen is emerging as a potential fireman in the bullpen:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=656876

 

Clayton Andrews is a two-way player:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=677076

 

And in a small sample, Michael Mediavilla just dominated:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=656728

 

So, which players do the folks at Brewerfan.net think will break out and catch the rest of baseball by surprise?

[RollieTime]

Max Lazar has a ton of potential and is a guy I think could turn into a nice number 2 pitcher in the future for us. If he can keep his walk rate minuscule like he has, he could have a very bright future with us.

 

He is still a couple years away, but will be an exciting player to watch in 2020 to see how he progresses.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It might not translate to top level prospects, but the organization seems to have a significant depth of pitching to the point where there could be some "why didn't he get promoted?" questions when the rosters come out, barring injuries of course.

 

While it has the most variance, as usual, the Wisconsin rotation is going to be interesting to watch, with it likely having a combination of young guys and guys who have overcome a string of injuries or other issues: Jarvis, Olson, Kelly, Lindell, Walters, Begue and Luna. Kelly is the prized prospect, but I've got a feeling one or two of the other guys in that group takes a Lazar-type leap this season.

[brewmann04]

I think Ashby could also be a top of the spot starter.

[JohnBriggs12]

Let's not forget that Ethan Small is not all that far away either. He dominated in his brief pro experience like the top pitcher in the SEC should and I'm guessing most of 2020, he'll be in Biloxi. A few more months of excellence from these guys and the Brewers ability to deal might improve a lot by deadline.

[TJseven7]

The off the radar guy I'm a big fan of is Dylan File. In the last 2 years the only pitchers in AA that have shown better than File are named Brown and Supak. They are both considered top 12 prospects in the system. His k/9 is climbing and bb/9 falling. No love. I guess guys drafted in the 21st round who succeed aren't good. Guy could jump Supak and Brown this year.

 

Everyone has seemed to completely forget Caden Lemons. He's 21. Small is nearly 23 for comparison. MKE drafted Lemons as a child. He's been a big invisible lottery ticket but the upside is still incredible and he gets completely ignored despite being a 2nd round pick and hitting 98 mph in HS. This brings me to a point of issue I have with almost all talent evaluators. Lemons is taken 46th and promptly placed 18th on the top 30 for the Brewers. He's young and seen as a big time project with monster upside. We are now 2.5 years removed and he's done nothing to elevate his stock. However, he's done nothing to lower his stock. He's 21. That's still young for A ball. I don't get why you call him a top 20 prospect in the MKE system then start grading him down immediately because he's developing like a project typically does. They knew the moment he was taken that it was going to be a long road. Then they call the MKE farm system crap. There aren't 30 guys with higher potential than this kid, and omitting him then calling the MKE system bad is in part due to them choosing to omit talent from the list. They are talking out of both sides of their mouth. Either you include the talent and rank the system based on talent or you never include projects and don't bump up other systems based on the projects they've collected.

 

With a few additions to the pen in MKE, the AAA pen could be top to bottom stellar. I think the shuttle has a lot of options this year.

[82brewcrew82]

I agree on File. Not a flame thrower but not a soft tosser either, he has been on my radar or over a year now. Unfortunately the prospect rankers seem to rely more on "what have you done for me lately" than anything else so I'm not surprised. Having said that, I would think that not having thrown any meaningful amount of innings since being drafted is a problem. That goes beyond "he's a project" to me. I also agree there are some sneaky good options in the minors to back-fill pen roles as the the season moves on.

[TJseven7]

"what have you done for me lately"

 

Seems to effect some guys a lot more than others. I'm not trying to make the case that Lemons is a sure thing or that he's an elite (in all of baseball) talent, but not putting him in the Brewers top 30 seems a little much. He's one of their top 7 draft picks in the last 4 years who hasn't graduated. Teens, 20s seems much more fair and makes the farm look better than it does now. It seems with MKE they are far too quick to erase guys and far to slow to realize a prospect is a real prospect. Then he goes from 20-35 to top 5 in the system to the MLB in 6 months.

 

File, yeah not sitting at 95+ but when you can throw a curve that drops dramatically and a slider that sweeps across the plate that looks the same as a 90-93 FB that he can locate, I wish batters good luck. I remember watching a highlight package on him and watching back to back pitches that went FB letter high inner 3rd then CB which started letter high inner 3rd and crossed right above the knees for strike 3. They looked the same until one broke and the other didn't. Batter didn't have a prayer. Yeah highlights are highlights but 93 FB up vs CB 80 for a strike and the batter basically has to guess which one. It's filthy. He talks about Trevor Bauer often and for good reason.

[3and2Fastball]

Rasmussen’s WHIP in AA last year was pretty high. I’m sure the Brewers will want to see him take another step with his control in 2020

 

Edit to add: I think he can take that next step...

[clancyphile]

Rasmussen’s WHIP in AA last year was pretty high. I’m sure the Brewers will want to see him take another step with his control in 2020

 

Edit to add: I think he can take that next step...

 

His first year back after two Tommy John surgeries... that is a lot of hope.

 

The big debate is, do you use him as a multi-inning reliever (for which he could be ready by June 1), or do you wait and risk an arm with two Tommy Johns as a starter?

[clancyphile]

"what have you done for me lately"

 

Seems to effect some guys a lot more than others. I'm not trying to make the case that Lemons is a sure thing or that he's an elite (in all of baseball) talent, but not putting him in the Brewers top 30 seems a little much. He's one of their top 7 draft picks in the last 4 years who hasn't graduated. Teens, 20s seems much more fair and makes the farm look better than it does now. It seems with MKE they are far too quick to erase guys and far to slow to realize a prospect is a real prospect. Then he goes from 20-35 to top 5 in the system to the MLB in 6 months.

 

File, yeah not sitting at 95+ but when you can throw a curve that drops dramatically and a slider that sweeps across the plate that looks the same as a 90-93 FB that he can locate, I wish batters good luck. I remember watching a highlight package on him and watching back to back pitches that went FB letter high inner 3rd then CB which started letter high inner 3rd and crossed right above the knees for strike 3. They looked the same until one broke and the other didn't. Batter didn't have a prayer. Yeah highlights are highlights but 93 FB up vs CB 80 for a strike and the batter basically has to guess which one. It's filthy. He talks about Trevor Bauer often and for good reason.

 

At some point, you need to look at results.

 

Brent Suter had `em in 2015-2016. How much was he dismissed om this board?

 

But if I were Stearns, I'd be looking over what there was available in 2012, and see if we can find others who could slip. Players who could be signed for a relatively small amount, but who could emerge as real contributors.

[CheeseheadInQC]

At some point, you need to look at results.

 

Brent Suter had 'em in 2015-2016. How much was he dismissed on this board?

 

But if I were Stearns, I'd be looking over what there was available in 2012, and see if we can find others who could slip. Players who could be signed for a relatively small amount, but who could emerge as real contributors.

 

If results were all that mattered, the Brewers would be looking pretty going forward with pitching. The Missions were first in the PCL in ERA and WHIP and second in strikeouts. The Shuckers were second in all three categories in the Southern League. The fact is Suter having as much success as he has had is as much of an anomaly as Lemons would be if he become a solid big league contributor after not breaking into full season ball for three years. Remember the meteoric rise and quick fall of Chris Cody (yes, despite my post count I have been lurking around here that long)? That is the more common story.

 

On Lemons, I think it is less what have you done for me lately, which to me implies results-based, and more the inability to see what if any progress is being made because of how few innings he has thrown. Even a season like fellow project Nash Walters had last year, while by no means dominant, would at least show some progress. Even a placement at Wisconsin to start next season, even if the results are rocky at times, would display a heartening confidence in him by the Brewers.

[clancyphile]

At some point, you need to look at results.

 

Brent Suter had 'em in 2015-2016. How much was he dismissed on this board?

 

But if I were Stearns, I'd be looking over what there was available in 2012, and see if we can find others who could slip. Players who could be signed for a relatively small amount, but who could emerge as real contributors.

 

If results were all that mattered, the Brewers would be looking pretty going forward with pitching. The Missions were first in the PCL in ERA and WHIP and second in strikeouts. The Shuckers were second in all three categories in the Southern League. The fact is Suter having as much success as he has had is as much of an anomaly as Lemons would be if he become a solid big league contributor after not breaking into full season ball for three years. Remember the meteoric rise and quick fall of Chris Cody (yes, despite my post count I have been lurking around here that long)? That is the more common story.

 

On Lemons, I think it is less what have you done for me lately, which to me implies results-based, and more the inability to see what if any progress is being made because of how few innings he has thrown. Even a season like fellow project Nash Walters had last year, while by no means dominant, would at least show some progress. Even a placement at Wisconsin to start next season, even if the results are rocky at times, would display a heartening confidence in him by the Brewers.

 

Funny you mention Biloxi:

Dylan File, Alec Bettinger, Drew Rasmussen, and Bowden Francis all has very good years there. Cam Roegner was also very solid coming off some injury problems.

 

File and Bettinger, I think look very promising as #3 starter types. Francis, a middle-relief guy. Roegner... maybe a #4/5 - or he could be a TOR ace. He'll either be very good or filler.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=996df32e

[sveumrules]

Roegner... maybe a #4/5 - or he could be a TOR ace. He'll either be very good or filler.

 

Sure, anyone could be a TOR ace. In Roegner's case, I'd say it's less than a 1% chance though.

 

I agree, he'll either be very good (<1% chance) or filler (>99% chance).

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Roegner... maybe a #4/5 - or he could be a TOR ace. He'll either be very good or filler.

 

Sure, anyone could be a TOR ace. In Roegner's case, I'd say it's less than a 1% chance though.

 

I agree, he'll either be very good (<1% chance) or filler (>99% chance).

 

In all honesty, a guy like Cam Roegner is probably lucky to still be being paid to play baseball.

 

Sorry, optimism thread ... so Yay for the Brewers continuing to give a guy likely to never make a major league impact a chance to continue earning a paycheck.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I realized looking back I forgot to insert the optimism part of the post I made last night after getting distracted. Basically, the Brewers have a wide variety of pitching prospects.

 

I was trying piece together the minor league rosters when I had some free time a week or so ago, and this is what I came up with for the rotations (I realize injuries/big league decisions will alter these):

 

AAA: Burnes, Peralta, Supak, Brown, Jankins

AA: Bettinger, File, Francis, Rasmussen, Zavalos

A+: Ashby, Small, Lazar, Bennett, Castaneda/Sunitsch

A: Jarvis, Olson, Kelly, Lindell, Walters, Luna, Lemons if he's ready

 

You've got your results guys (Jankins, Zavalos for example), upside plays (Lemons, Olson, Kelly and I might put Rasmussen and Ashby in this category too) and a bunch of guys somewhere in the middle. I don't know that I would list any as obvious organization filler, though, and usually there are at least a few starters for the full season teams that strike me as that.

 

Add in the fact the AAA bullpen could have Feyereisen, Perdomo, Wahl, Williams, Barker, Sanchez and Torres-Costa with Bickford, Andrews and a potential bounceback from Webb at AA, and you've got a lot of guys who at least look to have a shot at reaching the big leagues.

[gebc1997]

I think Nick Bennett is going to be a big time asset to this organization.

[clancyphile]

I realized looking back I forgot to insert the optimism part of the post I made last night after getting distracted. Basically, the Brewers have a wide variety of pitching prospects.

 

I was trying piece together the minor league rosters when I had some free time a week or so ago, and this is what I came up with for the rotations (I realize injuries/big league decisions will alter these):

 

AAA: Burnes, Peralta, Supak, Brown, Jankins

AA: Bettinger, File, Francis, Rasmussen, Zavalos

A+: Ashby, Small, Lazar, Bennett, Castaneda/Sunitsch

A: Jarvis, Olson, Kelly, Lindell, Walters, Luna, Lemons if he's ready

 

You've got your results guys (Jankins, Zavalos for example), upside plays (Lemons, Olson, Kelly and I might put Rasmussen and Ashby in this category too) and a bunch of guys somewhere in the middle. I don't know that I would list any as obvious organization filler, though, and usually there are at least a few starters for the full season teams that strike me as that.

 

Add in the fact the AAA bullpen could have Feyereisen, Perdomo, Wahl, Williams, Barker, Sanchez and Torres-Costa with Bickford, Andrews and a potential bounceback from Webb at AA, and you've got a lot of guys who at least look to have a shot at reaching the big leagues.

 

I see Peralta in the MLB pen, replacing Jeffress in the "three-headed monster" that the Crew will lean on.

 

AAA: Burnes, File, Supak, Brown, Jankins - (Rasmussen, Andrews, Perdomo, QTC, Wahl, Feyereisen in bullpen)

AA: Roegner, Bettinger, Francis, Zavalos, Ashby (Webb in bullpen)

A+: Small, Lazar, Bennett, Castenada, Sunitsch

A: Jarvis, Olson, Lindell, Walters, Luna, Kelly

 

I think Lemons may move to the bullpen, that heat he has will always play well as a reliever.

[Austin Tatious]

Lemons has an interesting arm but he’s likely going to run into Rule 5 issues long before he’s ready. That is what happens when a kid redshirts for three years.

[clancyphile]

Lemons has an interesting arm but he’s likely going to run into Rule 5 issues long before he’s ready. That is what happens when a kid redshirts for three years.

 

Milwaukee's best shot at this point is to hope he can become another Knebel. Use him as a reliever, and pray his velocity causes him to rocket up in that role.

[TJseven7]

AAA: Burnes, Peralta, Supak, Brown, Jankins

AA: Bettinger, File, Francis, Rasmussen, Zavalos

A+: Ashby, Small, Lazar, Bennett, Castaneda/Sunitsch

A: Jarvis, Olson, Kelly, Lindell, Walters, Luna, Lemons if he's ready

 

This seems like a ridiculous number of interesting names. I honestly do not remember the farm ever looking this interesting throughout. There really aren't any guys who look like inning eating MiLB forever bodies. Doesn't mean all of them work out but the fact that over 10 of them look promising and about 5 more look pen possible is pretty staggering.

 

DS seems to like to take bats 1st but the depth of arms in this organization is really impressive.

[Jenkins5]

AAA: Burnes, Peralta, Supak, Brown, Jankins

AA: Bettinger, File, Francis, Rasmussen, Zavalos

A+: Ashby, Small, Lazar, Bennett, Castaneda/Sunitsch

A: Jarvis, Olson, Kelly, Lindell, Walters, Luna, Lemons if he's ready

 

This seems like a ridiculous number of interesting names. I honestly do not remember the farm ever looking this interesting throughout. There really aren't any guys who look like inning eating MiLB forever bodies. Doesn't mean all of them work out but the fact that over 10 of them look promising and about 5 more look pen possible is pretty staggering.

 

DS seems to like to take bats 1st but the depth of arms in this organization is really impressive.

 

Could be just me but it would be really bad sign if Burnes & Peralta can’t make the 26 man roster on opening day. They should be past that point. Either make rotation or be in pen.

[Roderick]

AAA: Burnes, Peralta, Supak, Brown, Jankins

AA: Bettinger, File, Francis, Rasmussen, Zavalos

A+: Ashby, Small, Lazar, Bennett, Castaneda/Sunitsch

A: Jarvis, Olson, Kelly, Lindell, Walters, Luna, Lemons if he's ready

 

This seems like a ridiculous number of interesting names. I honestly do not remember the farm ever looking this interesting throughout. There really aren't any guys who look like inning eating MiLB forever bodies. Doesn't mean all of them work out but the fact that over 10 of them look promising and about 5 more look pen possible is pretty staggering.

 

DS seems to like to take bats 1st but the depth of arms in this organization is really impressive.

 

Could be just me but it would be really bad sign if Burnes & Peralta can’t make the 26 man roster on opening day. They should be past that point. Either make rotation or be in pen.

 

If the option is to have a so-so reliever versus have a guy ready in AAA that can start - I would send him to AAA (assuming the pen has other options). He can always come up later in the season and go in the pen, but I think it is important to have a guy stretched out. A call-up for non-performance is probably more likely than injury at this point. I don't see any options from the minor leaguers for any of the AA/AAA starting staff to be ready in May if need be. It isn't like the past where AA guys can come straight up, I think they need to get starts in AAA to get used to the ball before they can come up, that is my assumption at least.

[clancyphile]

AAA: Burnes, Peralta, Supak, Brown, Jankins

AA: Bettinger, File, Francis, Rasmussen, Zavalos

A+: Ashby, Small, Lazar, Bennett, Castaneda/Sunitsch

A: Jarvis, Olson, Kelly, Lindell, Walters, Luna, Lemons if he's ready

 

This seems like a ridiculous number of interesting names. I honestly do not remember the farm ever looking this interesting throughout. There really aren't any guys who look like inning eating MiLB forever bodies. Doesn't mean all of them work out but the fact that over 10 of them look promising and about 5 more look pen possible is pretty staggering.

 

DS seems to like to take bats 1st but the depth of arms in this organization is really impressive.

 

Yeah... Zavalos, Ashby, Sunitsch, Small, Lazar, File, Burnes, Supak, Jankins, Brown, and Cam Roegner have all flashed dominance at times, and hopefully they can regain form.

 

Rasmussen's started, but I think he's better suited for a multi-inning fireman role. Lemons and Kelly may be fireballers out of the pen.

[TJseven7]

 

Could be just me but it would be really bad sign if Burnes & Peralta can’t make the 26 man roster on opening day. They should be past that point. Either make rotation or be in pen.

 

It's not that Burnes couldn't start the year in the pen. It's that Burnes has a good pitch mix and I'd prefer them to relegate him back to AAA like they did with Woodruff after his first taste of success. He needs to keep working towards being a starter. He has too many quality offerings to toss him straight into the pen and forget about the starter path. Last year, after the rough start I said they should send him to AAA to keep working as a starter and kiss him goodbye until 2021. I think starting him in the pen in 2020 is a bigger bad sign then starting him in AAA.

 

Peralta, even Hader do not have the same pitch profile so that decision was easy.