Travis Shaw to Blue Jays

[TJseven7]

My expectation for SHaw is he will hit 20+ HR. Last year really looks like the outlier in his career and I think this is a good guy to bet on for this small contract. Fans are quick to just call a guy done but the reality usually isn't that it works like that. One bad year generally is just one bad year unless there were warning signs before that. Shaw didn't have any sort of warning signs and is too young to just age out.

 

I think there are a few warning signs on Shaw. He seems like a bat that needs to be in the lineup daily or things go badly. When Boston started limiting his bats the year before MKE traded for him he tanked badly. Last year he struggled and MKE started limiting his ABs he kept right on tanking.

 

I think he's got some Villar to him. Play him every day and he'll get hot at some point and pull up his numbers. Jostle him around and he folds.

 

Then there's the problem that you don't want to play him vs LHP. I'd consider those warning signs. I also don't think he's done but I think there are warning signs that his 2 good years are going to be very hard for him to repeat.

[timpep]

My expectation for SHaw is he will hit 20+ HR. Last year really looks like the outlier in his career and I think this is a good guy to bet on for this small contract. Fans are quick to just call a guy done but the reality usually isn't that it works like that. One bad year generally is just one bad year unless there were warning signs before that. Shaw didn't have any sort of warning signs and is too young to just age out.

 

I think there are a few warning signs on Shaw. He seems like a bat that needs to be in the lineup daily or things go badly. When Boston started limiting his bats the year before MKE traded for him he tanked badly. Last year he struggled and MKE started limiting his ABs he kept right on tanking.

 

I think he's got some Villar to him. Play him every day and he'll get hot at some point and pull up his numbers. Jostle him around and he folds.

 

Then there's the problem that you don't want to play him vs LHP. I'd consider those warning signs. I also don't think he's done but I think there are warning signs that his 2 good years are going to be very hard for him to repeat.

 

Did he do poorly because of less playing time or get less playing time because he was doing poorly? I'd guess the latter in both cases.

[TJseven7]

 

Did he do poorly because of less playing time or get less playing time because he was doing poorly? I'd guess the latter in both cases.

 

His exit comments made it sound like HE thinks its the former. Doesn't mean it's true but if HE thinks so, that's a problem.

[Devinep]

 

Did he do poorly because of less playing time or get less playing time because he was doing poorly? I'd guess the latter in both cases.

 

His exit comments made it sound like HE thinks its the former. Doesn't mean it's true but if HE thinks so, that's a problem.

 

When in reality the problem is he refuses to even try to hit to the left half of the field or lay off high pitches (or least not try to crush them). Also, if that’s his sprint speed, he’s slower than molasses

[Ennder]

 

I think there are a few warning signs on Shaw. He seems like a bat that needs to be in the lineup daily or things go badly. When Boston started limiting his bats the year before MKE traded for him he tanked badly. Last year he struggled and MKE started limiting his ABs he kept right on tanking.

 

I think he's got some Villar to him. Play him every day and he'll get hot at some point and pull up his numbers. Jostle him around and he folds.

 

Then there's the problem that you don't want to play him vs LHP. I'd consider those warning signs. I also don't think he's done but I think there are warning signs that his 2 good years are going to be very hard for him to repeat.

 

Shaw was lost in spring training and never figured it out, it had little to do with playing time imo. Even if he rebounds this year that is going to be a warning sign for teams looking to sign him in the future. The fact he has lost it at the plate and not been able to figure it out during the season is always going to be a red flag for him until age becomes a red flag. I also said going into last season he had no warning signs to suggest that 2019 was going to be what it was, obviously last season is a big warning sign going forward.

[Dean Machine]

I think the word "bad" in referring to his season is too positive. That was an all-time train wreck of a season.

[AKCheesehead]

Yeah at least when it went downhill for McGehee he wasn’t all that terrible so much as he had about the most snakebitten season I’ve ever seen. Shaw on the other hand was lost and you could see the lack of confidence in his swings, body language and face. He looked like he didn’t even want to bat because he knew he wouldn’t be successful.

[Lathund]

It'll be very interesting to see how Shaw does going forward. I'm someone who's inclined to trust the larger sample when a player struggles like this, and believe he will bounce back. But it's also very far from a sure thing. Sometimes when a player slumps like this it's simply about batted ball luck (BABIP). Even in a sample of a couple of hundred PAs it can have a huge impacts; line drives getting caught, hitting HR balls to the wrong places of the park and with the wrong weather etc etc. And while there was some of that for Travis, it wasn't the main problem. Exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel % were the same as in the past, but had a much higher launch angle (Which includes popups). No, just went and almost doubled his K% from last year. And that wasn't a lack of plate discipline, but a lack of making contact. He swung at pitches inside and outside the zone at about the same rate as in the past. He just made a lot less contact, from 87% to 77% contact rate. 13% swinging strike rate compared to 8 and 9% in his last two seasons. And from watching him, it looked like his struggles were mostly about missing on fastballs.

 

And it's the missing on fastballs part that I worry about. If he was struggling in almost any other way, I'd have brought him back still. So unless it was about carrying some injury, it's somethihng that, to me anyway, signals a more permanent decline than most other ways to struggle. I do still think he'll rebound and be at least a decent player again. I like the Bluejays, and they're in the AL so I hope he has a lot of success. All the best to Travis and his family.

[owbc]

I can’t think of many guys who bounced back after being as bad as Shaw for as long as Shaw has been bad for. Especially guys on the wrong side of 30. I think it was a mistake for Toronto to pay him this much money when guys like Ryon Healy can be had for much cheaper. I really hope I’m proven wrong because Travis seems like a good guy, but he won’t be missed. He probably shouldn’t have gotten an MLB contract from anyone.

[sveumrules]

Here were the closest Shaw comps I could find in the last 25 years that went on to have success (or at least return to their normal level of production) after an abysmal season (minimum 250 PAs)...

 

Shaw pre-2019 | 1,971 PAs | 111 wRC+

Shaw 2019 | 270 PAs | 47 wRC+

Shaw post-2109 | ???

 

Jermaine Dye 1999-2002 | 2,582 PAs | 118 wRC+

Jermaine Dye 2003 | 253 PAs | 36 wRC+

Jermaine Dye 2004-09 | 3,560 PAs| 119 wRC+

 

Tony Clark 1997-2001 | 2,692 PAs | 122 wRC+

Tony Clark 2002 | 298 PAs | 45 wRC+

Tony Clark 2003-05 | 956 PAs | 117 wRC+

 

Ronnie Belliard 1999-2001 | 1,608 PAs | 99 wRC+

Ronnie Belliard 2002 | 317 PAs | 42 wRC+

Ronnie Belliard 2003-05 | 1,755 PAs | 100 wRC+

 

That's about it. Next closest is probably Scott Brosius who had a three year stretch where he went 500 PAs/131 wRC+ followed by 526 PAs/50 wRC+ then rebounded to 603 PAs/123 wRC+.

 

Most of other guys over the last 25 years with at least 250 PAs in a single season & a wRC+ in the same range as Shaw's 47 mark from 2019 were back up catchers, utility infielders or guys at the very begining or ends of their careers.

[Pugger]

So we traded Shaw for Smoak essentially.

 

Wasn't Shaw a FA?

[Outlander]

Yes, it wasn't a literal trade, Smoak was a free agent as well. Just that the players switched teams for fairly similar salaries.

[Dragonbait]

Was there any issues with his daughter's health last year? Things off the field can be quite distracting.

[RollieTime]

Was there any issues with his daughter's health last year? Things off the field can be quite distracting.

 

I mentioned that quite a while ago as well. His daughter needs another open heart surgery I know sometime between 1.5 and 3 years old. She was born in June of 2017, so she’s 2.5 years old. It’s definitely reasonable to think she may have been having complications or he could have been stressing over her upcoming surgery. Maybe she has already had that surgery mid season last season and there’s some issues that arose? Maybe she’s having surgery this offseason and couldn’t get it out of his head? I haven’t heard of any update on her.

 

Everybody handles situations differently, but it’s not as simple as just clearing your mind when you’re up to bat to not think of her. If his mind wasn’t right or wasn’t clear because he was stressing about her health, it is definitely a legit reason as to why he may have had his struggles.

 

But if I had to guess, his mind was on his daughter’s health while trying to hit 95+ mph pitches and just wasn’t in the right state of mind to play baseball effectively.

 

I would bet that if she is or was having health issues last season or has an upcoming surgery, that if she’s healthy by the start of next season, Shaw will have a very good season like he did for us in 2017 and 2018. If we hear that she’s having surgery at some point during the season in 2020, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him continue to struggle until after that stress in his life has passed.

[owbc]

Here were the closest Shaw comps I could find in the last 25 years that went on to have success (or at least return to their normal level of production) after an abysmal season (minimum 250 PAs)...

 

Shaw pre-2019 | 1,971 PAs | 111 wRC+

Shaw 2019 | 270 PAs | 47 wRC+

Shaw post-2109 | ???

 

Jermaine Dye 1999-2002 | 2,582 PAs | 118 wRC+

Jermaine Dye 2003 | 253 PAs | 36 wRC+

Jermaine Dye 2004-09 | 3,560 PAs| 119 wRC+

 

Tony Clark 1997-2001 | 2,692 PAs | 122 wRC+

Tony Clark 2002 | 298 PAs | 45 wRC+

Tony Clark 2003-05 | 956 PAs | 117 wRC+

 

Ronnie Belliard 1999-2001 | 1,608 PAs | 99 wRC+

Ronnie Belliard 2002 | 317 PAs | 42 wRC+

Ronnie Belliard 2003-05 | 1,755 PAs | 100 wRC+

 

That's about it. Next closest is probably Scott Brosius who had a three year stretch where he went 500 PAs/131 wRC+ followed by 526 PAs/50 wRC+ then rebounded to 603 PAs/123 wRC+.

 

Most of other guys over the last 25 years with at least 250 PAs in a single season & a wRC+ in the same range as Shaw's 47 mark from 2019 were back up catchers, utility infielders or guys at the very begining or ends of their careers.

 

Thanks for this. Funny to see Ronnie Belliard show up, I guess being on the 2002 Brewers was a curse.

[Jopal78]

So really at the end of the tunnel Tyler Thornburg was traded for Ray Black.

 

 

Shaw is an example of the arbitration system being broken. Players in their 20s with a couple of 30+ homer seasons under their belts don’t typically “lose it” overnight. Yet, based on service time/arbitration rules the Brewers were supposed to give him a raise even after the egg he laid in 2019.

The other main alternative was lowballing him and going to a hearing and ripping him in front of the panel. They may have won their case and got Shaw at their price for 2020 but most assuredly would have caused hard feelings. So the team took the only palatable option they had and non-tendered him.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

So really at the end of the tunnel Tyler Thornburg was traded for Ray Black.

 

If you want to leave out the contribution Shaw made in 2018 and the contribution Pomeranz (acquired in Dubon deal) made in 2019 as part of playoff teams. Kind of a weird way to account for a trade.

[LouisEly]

Yet, based on service time/arbitration rules the Brewers were supposed to give him a raise even after the egg he laid in 2019.

No team is under any obligation to give a player a raise in arbitration, and can offer a reduction of up to 20% of that player's prior salary:

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/salary-arbitration

[Jopal78]

Yet, based on service time/arbitration rules the Brewers were supposed to give him a raise even after the egg he laid in 2019.

No team is under any obligation to give a player a raise in arbitration, and can offer a reduction of up to 20% of that player's prior salary:

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/salary-arbitration

 

Right, hence the second part of my post about lowballling him and going to an arbitration hearing.

[TURBO]

Blue Jays signed INF Travis Shaw to a one-year, $4 million contract.

 

The deal reportedly includes $675,000 in possible incentives. He'll also be under team control for 2021. Shaw is coming off a disastrous 2019 season where he batted .157/.281/.270 batting line with seven home runs and 16 RBI over 86 games, but this is a worthwhile buy-low for Toronto given his production from 2017-2018. The expectation is that he'll take over as the regular first baseman.

Dec 30, 2019, 11:13 AM ET

 

The regular 1B. Interesting.

[DHonks]

Blue Jays signed INF Travis Shaw to a one-year, $4 million contract.

 

The deal reportedly includes $675,000 in possible incentives. He'll also be under team control for 2021. Shaw is coming off a disastrous 2019 season where he batted .157/.281/.270 batting line with seven home runs and 16 RBI over 86 games, but this is a worthwhile buy-low for Toronto given his production from 2017-2018. The expectation is that he'll take over as the regular first baseman.

Dec 30, 2019, 11:13 AM ET

 

The regular 1B. Interesting.

 

When I thought we might sign Moose, I assumed Shaw would take over at 1st. Oh well. Too bad he desperately wanted out.

[clancyphile]

Some of the highlights from the conference call:

 

One item jumped at me:

- Made swing change last winter that clearly didn’t take, felt more like himself in Sept.

 

One thing that should be driven into the heads of players - if it isn't broken, don't try to "fix" it.

[djoctagone]

small sample size, but travis shaw has struck out four times in six at-bats (zero walks) this spring.

 

he struck out 25 times in 52 at-bats and zero walks with the brewers last spring.

[djoctagone]

still a small sample size, but in 15 spring plate appearances, travis shaw has only one hit, one walk and nine strikeouts.

[JohnBriggs12]

I said it last year but Shaw appears to have turned himself into Chris Davis but without the huge contract. I was very pleased the Brewers didn't decide he needed more chances to fail.