Keuchel to White Sox - 3 years, $55 million w vesting option

[brewmann04]

I wanted Dallas and thought he will help this rotation but hopefully DS has another plan.

[brewmann04]

I wanted Dallas and thought he will help this rotation but hopefully DS has another plan.

[KeithStone53151]

This is the type of deal I expected Stearns to go for this offseason. That said, I've been extremely anti-keuchel for a long time. I simply don't believe he's a good pitcher. I feel like for some unexplainable reason, he's been able to get hitters to chase his mediocre stuff...and it's led to stretches of success. I know my opinion is a minority one. The point here, despite this being a tier i thought we'd target... I'm glad we passed on keuchel at any realistic price

[KeithStone53151]

This is the type of deal I expected Stearns to go for this offseason. That said, I've been extremely anti-keuchel for a long time. I simply don't believe he's a good pitcher. I feel like for some unexplainable reason, he's been able to get hitters to chase his mediocre stuff...and it's led to stretches of success. I know my opinion is a minority one. The point here, despite this being a tier i thought we'd target... I'm glad we passed on keuchel at any realistic price

[A Swing and A Drive]

This is the type of deal I expected Stearns to go for this offseason. That said, I've been extremely anti-keuchel for a long time. I simply don't believe he's a good pitcher. I feel like for some unexplainable reason, he's been able to get hitters to chase his mediocre stuff...and it's led to stretches of success. I know my opinion is a minority one. The point here, despite this being a tier i thought we'd target... I'm glad we passed on keuchel at any realistic price

 

I’m also happy they specifically stayed away from Keuchel as I agree that he’s just not that great of a pitcher anymore going forward.

 

However, the Brewers certainty could have afforded a starting pitcher from his tier of quality. My hope was that they would sign one bargain bin SP better than Lindblom and then one like Ryu on a 3 year deal.

 

Instead the Brewers are relying on their magic pixie dust to work on the likes of Lindblom Lauer and Brett Anderson to get them back to the postseason.

 

On paper, our 2020 rotation looks like crap, frankly.

[A Swing and A Drive]

This is the type of deal I expected Stearns to go for this offseason. That said, I've been extremely anti-keuchel for a long time. I simply don't believe he's a good pitcher. I feel like for some unexplainable reason, he's been able to get hitters to chase his mediocre stuff...and it's led to stretches of success. I know my opinion is a minority one. The point here, despite this being a tier i thought we'd target... I'm glad we passed on keuchel at any realistic price

 

I’m also happy they specifically stayed away from Keuchel as I agree that he’s just not that great of a pitcher anymore going forward.

 

However, the Brewers certainty could have afforded a starting pitcher from his tier of quality. My hope was that they would sign one bargain bin SP better than Lindblom and then one like Ryu on a 3 year deal.

 

Instead the Brewers are relying on their magic pixie dust to work on the likes of Lindblom Lauer and Brett Anderson to get them back to the postseason.

 

On paper, our 2020 rotation looks like crap, frankly.

[LouisEly]

Are the White Sox better than the Cubs now?

Keuchel would be the Cubs 4th or 5th best SP, so no? The Cubs also probably have 5 of the top 6 or 7 position players between the teams, including the best in Bryant. The pitching floor seems much safer too. I don’t see it unless all this young pitching comes together that’s been hurt or under performed to date.

With Hamels gone, I don't even know who the Cubs 5th starter is. Chatwood? Jharel Cotton?

 

Darvish is fragile, will be 33 next year, and led the league in HR's given up last year. Lester will be 36 and has had a FIP >4.00 each of the last three years. Right now Giolito is the best pitcher on either team, I'd put Keuchel on par with Quintana, then you have Hendricks/Lester/?? versus Kopesch/Cease/Gonzalez/Rodon.

 

Moncada had an OPS equal to Bryant last year, Anderson had a higher OPS than Baez, and Jimenez is the best OF on either team (keep in mind he was only 22 last year and could easily get better). Then add Grandal, and I think it's a lot closer than you think.

[brewcrewdue80]

Love the White Sox roster right now on paper. I think they could easily win a World Series within the span of this Keuchel contract (not because of Keuchel, but he's a decent innings eater to stabilize a very young and high-upside rotation).

 

C - Yasmani Grandal

1B - Jose Abreu

2B - Nick Madrigal

SS - Tim Anderson

3B - Yoan Moncada

LF - Eloy Jimenez

CF - Luis Robert

RF - Nomar Mazara

DH - Andrew Vaughn

 

SP - Lucas Giolito

SP - Carlos Rodon

SP - Dylan Cease

SP - Michael Kopech

SP - Dallas Keuchel

 

I dont know all the bats but pitching i do. Rodon is an injury waiting to happer SP that Id now consider in the bullpen. Giolito finally emerged as the Ace about 4years later than expected. Cease is a future ToR at any moment guy. Adding Keuchel means this team is NY Mets Pitching staff of the last 5years about to happen. They are a sleeper for WS ability this year now.

[Ennder]

To me this is like asking the Brewers to sign Jeff Suppan to this deal. His stats are headed in the wrong direction and this skillset doesn't tend to age well at all. I think the White Sox just spent $55M on a 4+ ERA pitcher who is only going to get worse. I get it for the White Sox who have a very young team and so can afford an overpay, I don't think this deal works at all for the Brewers.

[clancyphile]

To me this is like asking the Brewers to sign Jeff Suppan to this deal. His stats are headed in the wrong direction and this skillset doesn't tend to age well at all. I think the White Sox just spent $55M on a 4+ ERA pitcher who is only going to get worse. I get it for the White Sox who have a very young team and so can afford an overpay, I don't think this deal works at all for the Brewers.

 

The high ground-ball stats would have made a 3-year/$60 million deal viable, IMO. Right around the Yelich window, when Hiura/Urias would still be cheap(ish), and it would have moved Houser to the pen with Hader/Knebel/Suter/Peralta.

 

I think, ultimately, it's that 4th year vesting option that pushed Stearns away. And I'd probably pass as well. I might have gone for a mutual option with a buyout of $7.5 million or so, and probably would have declined it, but the deal's just a hair too long at a slightly too high AAV.

[xisxisxis]

The benefit the White Sox had coming in was a large number of young cost controlled players which gave them significant money to invest in free agency and through trades. I wonder if the additions are that significant enough to move the needle? Grandal signing was definitely a needle mover. The Mazara trade is pretty underwhelming as he has been a pretty consistent *meh*, Keuchel is probably the 2.5 WAR pitcher that steamer projects, but I think the days of upside are gone and you're just going to get 2-2.5 WAR from him this year and maybe next. Not a huge needle mover. If the youth keep progressing, if Mazara figures something out, and Grandal and Keuchel play to expectations, sure with luck the White Sox could be in the AL Central hunt, but there's still some room for regression candidates and performance gaps for the new additions plus Abreu's aging to make this a 500 team.

[TJseven7]

Love the White Sox roster right now on paper. I think they could easily win a World Series within the span of this Keuchel contract (not because of Keuchel, but he's a decent innings eater to stabilize a very young and high-upside rotation).

 

C - Yasmani Grandal

1B - Jose Abreu

2B - Nick Madrigal

SS - Tim Anderson

3B - Yoan Moncada

LF - Eloy Jimenez

CF - Luis Robert

RF - Nomar Mazara

DH - Andrew Vaughn

 

SP - Lucas Giolito

SP - Carlos Rodon

SP - Dylan Cease

SP - Michael Kopech

SP - Dallas Keuchel

 

Got a good friend who is a CWS fan. I've talked to him about them quite a bit. It's a fascinating team. They could absolutely be a Marlin type team that flies up into the WS. They could absolutely be a potential laden team that is too young to get off the ground.

[Tbadder]

Still think it’s an overpay. Rather have Lyles and his contract. He’s not Suppan okay, but it’s a Suppanesque kinda deal. We shall see.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Love the White Sox roster right now on paper. I think they could easily win a World Series within the span of this Keuchel contract (not because of Keuchel, but he's a decent innings eater to stabilize a very young and high-upside rotation).

 

C - Yasmani Grandal

1B - Jose Abreu

2B - Nick Madrigal

SS - Tim Anderson

3B - Yoan Moncada

LF - Eloy Jimenez

CF - Luis Robert

RF - Nomar Mazara

DH - Andrew Vaughn

 

SP - Lucas Giolito

SP - Carlos Rodon

SP - Dylan Cease

SP - Michael Kopech

SP - Dallas Keuchel

I think they’re ridiculously overrated. Eloy is capped at a 2-3 win player at best with the defense and doesn’t really walk, Robert is more likely Brinson 2.0 than the player he’s hyped to be, Tim Anderson has as many years at .1 WAR as he does over 2.1, Abreu and Grandal are aging and Abreu just isn’t that good, ownership doesn’t really spend as the Grandal and Keuchel deals are like the largest contracts they’ve ever given out, more times than not young pitchers break and don’t pan out as prospects and it’s rare to sequence them all out being good at the same time, etc. There’s a path to being plenty good and have optimism, I just don’t buy it.

 

I'd bet my life savings that you are wrong on jimenez...dude hit 30+ bombs as a rookie in 122 games, played through extended stretches with nagging hip and shoulder ailments when he wasn't on the DL. There are surely overrated pieces to the white sox roster, but Jimenez is not one of them. If he's healthy he's already a 40hr, 900+ OPS player. Even with below average defense that's 4-5 WAR player.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Love the White Sox roster right now on paper. I think they could easily win a World Series within the span of this Keuchel contract (not because of Keuchel, but he's a decent innings eater to stabilize a very young and high-upside rotation).

 

C - Yasmani Grandal

1B - Jose Abreu

2B - Nick Madrigal

SS - Tim Anderson

3B - Yoan Moncada

LF - Eloy Jimenez

CF - Luis Robert

RF - Nomar Mazara

DH - Andrew Vaughn

 

SP - Lucas Giolito

SP - Carlos Rodon

SP - Dylan Cease

SP - Michael Kopech

SP - Dallas Keuchel

I think they’re ridiculously overrated. Eloy is capped at a 2-3 win player at best with the defense and doesn’t really walk, Robert is more likely Brinson 2.0 than the player he’s hyped to be, Tim Anderson has as many years at .1 WAR as he does over 2.1, Abreu and Grandal are aging and Abreu just isn’t that good, ownership doesn’t really spend as the Grandal and Keuchel deals are like the largest contracts they’ve ever given out, more times than not young pitchers break and don’t pan out as prospects and it’s rare to sequence them all out being good at the same time, etc. There’s a path to being plenty good and have optimism, I just don’t buy it.

 

I'd bet my life savings that you are wrong on jimenez...dude hit 30+ bombs as a rookie in 122 games, played through extended stretches with nagging hip and shoulder ailments when he wasn't on the DL. There are surely overrated pieces to the white sox roster, but Jimenez is not one of them. If he's healthy he's already a 40hr, 900+ OPS player. Even with below average defense that's 4-5 WAR player.

His defense is literally some of the worst in the league, it’s going to kill his value. He also doesn’t really walk, struck out at a descent rate (27% or so) and is injury prone. He pretty much has to hit .280+ (which with his profile he’s probably no a high BABIP guy) and hit 40+ HRs to carry value because he does nothing else. His ceiling is probably something like the year Soler just had and that wasn’t even 4 WAR and Soler had a BB rate Eloy hasn’t put up since A ball. Plus if the ball stays juiced the power isn’t all that valuable. These bad fielder/DH guys just rarely carry all that much value, like Nelson Cruz has more years in the 1s than he does at 4+.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Are the White Sox better than the Cubs now?

Keuchel would be the Cubs 4th or 5th best SP, so no? The Cubs also probably have 5 of the top 6 or 7 position players between the teams, including the best in Bryant. The pitching floor seems much safer too. I don’t see it unless all this young pitching comes together that’s been hurt or under performed to date.

With Hamels gone, I don't even know who the Cubs 5th starter is. Chatwood? Jharel Cotton?

 

Darvish is fragile, will be 33 next year, and led the league in HR's given up last year. Lester will be 36 and has had a FIP >4.00 each of the last three years. Right now Giolito is the best pitcher on either team, I'd put Keuchel on par with Quintana, then you have Hendricks/Lester/?? versus Kopesch/Cease/Gonzalez/Rodon.

 

Moncada had an OPS equal to Bryant last year, Anderson had a higher OPS than Baez, and Jimenez is the best OF on either team (keep in mind he was only 22 last year and could easily get better). Then add Grandal, and I think it's a lot closer than you think.

Yeah idk who their 5th starter is. But I’d take Hendricks, Darvish and Quintana all over Keuchel and it’s probably a coin flip between him and Lester to me. So to me he’d be the Cubs 4/5th starter. Hendricks is the best pitcher on either team, IMO, Darvish was one of the best pitchers in MLB in the second half. I’d think one and maybe both is better than Giloito this year. Schwarber is better than Eloy, IMO, or at least are both in that 2-3 win range and the Cubs can live with that since Schwarber is like their 4-5th best player and the White Sox NEED Eloy to be a 4-5+ win star and that’s hard with his profile. Anderson isn’t better than Báez as long as Anderson isn’t BABIP’ing like .400 and Bryant is better than Moncada. Steamer projects all that for this year too.

 

Just think this White Sox team is really faulty, they don’t really have a star on offense other than Grandal. It’s a bunch of 2-3 win players most likely. The pitching is a complete crap shoot, look at the Mets from 2014-2019, it likely doesn’t come together between injuries or just having pitchers not turn out to be good.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think they’re ridiculously overrated. Eloy is capped at a 2-3 win player at best with the defense and doesn’t really walk, Robert is more likely Brinson 2.0 than the player he’s hyped to be, Tim Anderson has as many years at .1 WAR as he does over 2.1, Abreu and Grandal are aging and Abreu just isn’t that good, ownership doesn’t really spend as the Grandal and Keuchel deals are like the largest contracts they’ve ever given out, more times than not young pitchers break and don’t pan out as prospects and it’s rare to sequence them all out being good at the same time, etc. There’s a path to being plenty good and have optimism, I just don’t buy it.

 

I'd bet my life savings that you are wrong on jimenez...dude hit 30+ bombs as a rookie in 122 games, played through extended stretches with nagging hip and shoulder ailments when he wasn't on the DL. There are surely overrated pieces to the white sox roster, but Jimenez is not one of them. If he's healthy he's already a 40hr, 900+ OPS player. Even with below average defense that's 4-5 WAR player.

His defense is literally some of the worst in the league, it’s going to kill his value. He also doesn’t really walk and is injury prone. He pretty much has to hit .280+ and hit 40+ HRs to carry value because he does nothing else. His ceiling is probably something like the year Soler just had and that wasn’t even 4 WAR and with a BB rate Eloy hasn’t put up since A ball. Plus if the ball stays juiced the power isn’t all that valuable.

 

Lol, Jimenez is all of 23 and you act like he's Pujols running around out there...basing Jimenez's ceiling off 3/4 of his rookie year in MLB is pretty shortsighted.

 

Ask every mlb GM if they could replace one of their starting corner OF's or DH with jimenez, and you may be able to count the teams who dont instantly say yes on one hand.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

 

I'd bet my life savings that you are wrong on jimenez...dude hit 30+ bombs as a rookie in 122 games, played through extended stretches with nagging hip and shoulder ailments when he wasn't on the DL. There are surely overrated pieces to the white sox roster, but Jimenez is not one of them. If he's healthy he's already a 40hr, 900+ OPS player. Even with below average defense that's 4-5 WAR player.

His defense is literally some of the worst in the league, it’s going to kill his value. He also doesn’t really walk and is injury prone. He pretty much has to hit .280+ and hit 40+ HRs to carry value because he does nothing else. His ceiling is probably something like the year Soler just had and that wasn’t even 4 WAR and with a BB rate Eloy hasn’t put up since A ball. Plus if the ball stays juiced the power isn’t all that valuable.

 

Lol, Jimenez is all of 23 and you act like he's Pujols running around out there...basing Jimenez's ceiling off 3/4 of his rookie year in MLB is pretty shortsighted.

 

Ask every mlb GM if they could replace one of their starting corner OF's or DH with jimenez, and you may be able to count the teams who dont instantly say yes on one hand.

He hurt himself doing routine tasks in the OF last year, he’s not really an OF’er. That bat isn’t that special, I’m sure a lot of teams would take him while he makes no money. I’d be fine having him on the Brewers until he got expensive. But look at the win values of DH/bad corner OF’ers over the years, it’s hard to get to 4-5+ wins for that profile and his bat isn’t “that” good. As mentioned he doesn’t really walk, he Ks at a decent rate, he’s gonna have to sustain a high BA/BABIP and hit 40+ HRs to be even a 2-3 win guy. JD Martinez hit .304/.383/.557 36 HRs with double the walk rate and about 1/3rd fewer Ks than Eloy last year and was only worth 3.2 WAR.

[Thurston Fluff]

This is a close one.

 

Do I think Keuchel would have been a huge asset over three years? Yes.

 

Woodruff, Keuchel, Lindblom, B. Anderson, Lauer would have been an excellent rotation, since you get a bullpen that starts off Hader, Knebel, Houser, Peralta, Suter. That, with the lineup the Crew has, can win a World Series.

 

That said... $18.5 million a year for four years (assuming the option vests) is a lot of money and a lot of time - and should Milwaukee tie up so much in one player? There's a good case to be made for saying "No."

 

The payroll limitations are real.

 

Could the Brewers have options that provide most of Keuchel's production for much cheaper from the mix of Supak/Brown/Burnes/Roegner/File/Francis/Bettinger/Rasmussen who spent a lot of time in AA/AAA? Yes, especially if Burnes becomes the Burnes of 2018.

 

Ultimately, I can see why Stearns passed on Keuchel. I can also see a good case for why some can say Stearns should have ponied up the cash.

 

Well said. There are multiple ways to build a good team. One way doesn't have to be wrong for another to be right.

[JosephC]

I like Keuchel but 3/55 (and potentially more) is a pretty high number. I would have loved to see him in a Brewer uniform at 3/42, but 3/55 is higher than I would have been willing to go.

 

Pretty much sucks that free agent spending takes a big jump up in the same off-season that Attanasio has apparently decided to cut payroll.

 

It looks like Ryu is the last of the Class A/Class B/Class C free agent pitchers out there, and while the guy is a plus-plus guy when healthy, he's not healthy often enough where I'd want to throw big money at him either.

[clancyphile]

I like Keuchel but 3/55 (and potentially more) is a pretty high number. I would have loved to see him in a Brewer uniform at 3/42, but 3/55 is higher than I would have been willing to go.

 

Pretty much sucks that free agent spending takes a big jump up in the same off-season that Attanasio has apparently decided to cut payroll.

 

It looks like Ryu is the last of the Class A/Class B/Class C free agent pitchers out there, and while the guy is a plus-plus guy when healthy, he's not healthy often enough where I'd want to throw big money at him either.

 

Well, the market was bound to get hot at some point.

 

With Ryu, it is a question of can he stay healthy... and after Nelson... if I were Stearns, I'd probably not throw the money at Ryu. It might be better spent on the analytics labs to help get the group of Burnes/Brown/Supak/Roegner/File/Bettinger/Francis/Andrews/Rasmussen/Perdomo/Torres-Costa to go up a level or two.

[Roderick]

Keuchel's fine. It's not an overpay, but he's going to be 32 and he's started 30 games in a season 2 times in his career. I'm not sure the Brewers can take that kind of leap at 18 mil per.

 

In comparison to MadBum and the deals of this off season I would agree that it's not an overpay. Depending on the vesting option criteria the length isn't toxic. However, this entire off season has been 1 giant overpay in comparison to the previous 2 years. I'm pretty content that MKE is laying low in a players market.

 

The thing is the last two years are the outlier years. Every other year baseball inflation of 8% give or take is the norm. It doesn't pay to sit out and wait for next year, because next year will tack another 8% on contracts and go forward. This is the normal - at least until TV contracts come down.

[TJseven7]

Keuchel's fine. It's not an overpay, but he's going to be 32 and he's started 30 games in a season 2 times in his career. I'm not sure the Brewers can take that kind of leap at 18 mil per.

 

In comparison to MadBum and the deals of this off season I would agree that it's not an overpay. Depending on the vesting option criteria the length isn't toxic. However, this entire off season has been 1 giant overpay in comparison to the previous 2 years. I'm pretty content that MKE is laying low in a players market.

 

The thing is the last two years are the outlier years. Every other year baseball inflation of 8% give or take is the norm. It doesn't pay to sit out and wait for next year, because next year will tack another 8% on contracts and go forward. This is the normal - at least until TV contracts come down.

 

But you have to ask yourself why did the outlier happen. Teams over extend, beyond inflation and the nature of the fully guaranteed deals leave them stuck. Happens in the NBA too.

[clancyphile]

The thing is the last two years are the outlier years. Every other year baseball inflation of 8% give or take is the norm. It doesn't pay to sit out and wait for next year, because next year will tack another 8% on contracts and go forward. This is the normal - at least until TV contracts come down.

 

But you have to ask yourself why did the outlier happen. Teams over extend, beyond inflation and the nature of the fully guaranteed deals leave them stuck. Happens in the NBA too.

 

See the Cubs. They couldn't sign Alex Claudio because of the deals they gave other players..

 

Alex freakin' Claudio.

 

This is a year where more teams than normal are getting from under bad deals.

 

One nice thing about a good farm system is you don't have to solely rely on the free agent market. I wonder what the internal discussions about the pitching prospects - Bettinger, File, Andrews, Rasmussen, Jankins, Francis, Burnes, QTC, etc - are saying. I bet there's something in the analytics that has Stearns feeling good about how well they can contribute.