2020 Brewers Roster Unabashed Optimism Thread

[SRB]

Use this thread to discuss general optimism about the machinations of David Stearns.

 

How about if the current roster clicks and each player merely repeats their best campaign from the last three years (or Steamer projected campaign)?

 

C Omar Narvaez - .278/.353/.460/.813, .345 wOBA, 119 wRC+

1B Justin Smoak - .270/.355/.529/.884, .371 wOBA, 133 wRC+

2B Keston Hiura - .303/.368/.570/.938, .388 wOBA, 139 wRC+

SS Luis Urias - .251/.333/.403/.736, .316 wOBA, 92 wRC+

3B TBD!

LF Christian Yelich - .329/.429/.671/1.100, .442 wOBA, 174 wRC+

CF Lorenzo Cain - .308/.395/.417/.812, .359 wOBA, 124 wRC+

RF Avisail Garcia - .330/.380/.506/.886, .375 wOBA, 138 wRC+

 

C Manny Pina - .279/.327/.424/.751, .323 wOBA, 95 wRC+

IF Ryon Healy - .257/.305/.465/.770, .321 wOBA, 95 wRC+

IF Eric Sogard - .290/.353/.457/.810, .342 wOBA, 115 wRC+

OF/1B Ryan Braun - .285/.343/.505/.848, .354 wOBA, 117 wRC+

OF Ben Gamel - .272/.358/.370/.728, .323 wOBA, 107 wRC+

 

Not enough upside for you??

[Luke99]

I love it. No holes, less K's, better bat to ball skills, still solid defense...

 

Now get me a 3rd baseman and let's cook!

[3and2Fastball]

Looking good! I like it... it will be very interesting to see the opening day lineup, I suspect there’ll be a few intriguing additions or changes

[True Blue Brew Crew]

If Urias hits like he did to close out 2019, he easily could post a wRC+ above 100 as well. September line of .300, .371, .425, .796

 

Not all that unthinkable given he's 22 years old, has a hit tool rated as high as 65, and still adjusting the majors.

[owbc]

This team is going to own the 26-man roster like no other!

[Outlander]

This team is going to own the 26-man roster like no other!

If they do acquire a 3B in will be interesting to see how they handle optioning Arcia/Urias/Healy/Gamel

[brewmann04]

I think Healy and Sogard will split 3rd imo. I wonder if Davis has another piece to unearth like Starter or that 3rd baseman.

[bill hAll Star]

I think Healy and Sogard will split 3rd imo. I wonder if Davis has another piece to unearth like Starter or that 3rd baseman.

 

I really don't see Healy starting in the majors. Not only have they basically stated he'll be down there due to rehabbing an injury, I just trust that Stearns will not go with a guy with this weak of a track record and 3B defense going into a contending season. It is illogical to have Healy penned into a major role.

[RollieTime]

Castellanos will come in as the third baseman and the Brewers offense will be STACKED!

 

CF Cain

2B Hiura

LF Yelich

3B Castellanos

C Narvaez

RF Garcia

1B Braun

SS Urias

P Woodruff

 

Braun in the 7 hole!? Sign me up! With all the strikeouts across the league these days, we will get by! We will overcome! We will win the 2020 World Series!

[mattyo]

If Urias hits like he did to close out 2019, he easily could post a wRC+ above 100 as well. September line of .300, .371, .425, .796

 

Not all that unthinkable given he's 22 years old, has a hit tool rated as high as 65, and still adjusting the majors.

 

In fact, Urias had a 70 hit tool on MLB pipeline! I think people are greatly underrating him based on a rocky first few months in his MLB career. The kid will rake.

[mattyo]

I think Healy and Sogard will split 3rd imo. I wonder if Davis has another piece to unearth like Starter or that 3rd baseman.

 

Cmon man this is the optimism thread

[phnxcrew]

Count me in on the optimistic side of things for a change. Absolutely love the roster turnover. I still think we'll find a 3b and trade for an ace before the deadline, and likely sign a reliever as well!

[patrickgpe]

Stearns just proves again that he is smarter than everyone else.

 

Instead of committing big money and years to players north of 30, he has filled out the roster with players on shorter deals where very little (if any) drop off production wise.

 

I think atleast one more move is coming, but I am really pumped for March!.

[Vollbc74]

Last 2 year R/L splits for our projected starters:

 

Vs R OPS

CF Cain 0.715

RF Yelich 1.088

2B Hiura 1.021

1B Smoak 0.829

LF Braun 0.775

C Navarez 0.837

3B Sogard 0.703*

SS Urias 0.541*

 

vs LHP OPS

CF Cain 0.857

RF Yelich 0.959

2B Hiura 0.673*

1B Braun 0.901

LF Garcia 0.789

C Pina 0.775

3B Sogard 0.817*

SS Urias 0.954

 

Hiura and Sogard have some interesting reverse splits that I'm not sure hold much weight.

 

Urias mashed LHP but struggled mightily vs RHP is a small sample last year. I don't think a leveling of 750ish OPS is out of the question him.

 

 

Even without a major upgrade at 3B, that lineup is very similar to last years with potentially some more consistency without regular ABs going to Shaw/Aggy/Arcia

[3and2Fastball]

Hiura’s reverse split is real, although the difference might not be that pronounced in a bigger sample. He hit RHP’s better than LHP’s in MiLB & College, too

 

Urias absolutely crushes LHP’s, and has so far in his minimal MLB at bats

[Tbadder]

I wanna believe! I really do, but all my optimism is based on DS being way smarter than my gut which is queasy this off season. Given the size of my gut I’m sure my fears are overblown, out of control, bowling ball-like. See, I really want to believe.

 

But seriously even my gut tells me Urias is gonna be a stud. That Garcia will light up right-centerfield with like 120 doubles next year, that our team obp dramatically rises, that Burnes becomes our number two starter, Hader turns into Gavin Lux et al, Go Brewers Go!

[Thurston Fluff]

I wanted depth over a few big acquisitions so I couldn't be happier with how this off season is going. Depth got us to the playoffs last season. Without depth we would have been toast when the injuries hit and when Aguillar and Shaw sucked rocks. It was depth that allowed the team to put up one of the best months in Brewer history despite one of the best players in all of baseball being out with a season ending injury. If Stearns does bring in someone like Donaldson or Ryu I wouldn't mind at this point. I just didn't want them to be brought in at the expense of depth.

[Lathund]

I like what the team is doing. It was a tough situation this offseason. Grandal and Moose only signed because their market was slow, and Pomeranz and Lyles could be acquired because they were rentals who had struggled (And were also very cheap). Those four then play so well that they combine for $50m AAV. Replacing that was always going to be tough. And even if they had gotten them all back, there would still be spots that needed filling, and they'd have absolutely no money to do it with. So shedding contracts made sense; opting against taking the chances for a bounceback year for the injured Nelson and slumping Shaw (I believe they both will be a lot better in 2020. But perhaps not sure enough to pay $5m each). Opting to try and get Andersons production for less than $8.5m and Thames for 7.5m. Opting to not pay bench players with poor bats (Spangenberg, Perez), and not paying for middle relief (Claudio, Guerra).

 

So they then take the approach that the movie version of Moneyball has a scene about; They can't replace Giambi and Damon, so they recreate them in the aggregate. And it's kind of what the Brewers are doing. Consider that Moose and Grandal aren't the only position players gone; they're the ones we'll miss the most (performance wise), but we'll also not see Aguilar, Shaw, Perez, Spangenberg, and less (I presume) of Gamel and Arcia. So to improve on that, they'd need to add players who can improve over the combined stats of those 6 (or 8). And I'd argue that they have already done so, even if Sogard/Healy would be the 3B players as it stands (And I don't think it will).

 

In a free agent market that's more robust than it has in the past, and with some uncertainty in how good the team will be (Will Cain bounce back? How good is Urias? Does Lindblom's changes translate from KBO to MLB? Corbin Burnes?), signing solid if unspectacular veterans to short-term deals makes a lot of sense as opposed to participating in bidding wars. Makes the team better, won't limit them in 2021, and they have team options on several of them if things turn out well.

 

There was also the moves for Narvaez and Lauer/Urias; Narvaez where the offense of Grandal was replaced for a fraction of the cost (Though they'll have to handle the defensive drop off) and for more years of control. And Luer/Urias where young talent was traded from a position of surplus (And a stronger open market) in exchange for young talent at a position of need. And swapping two similar(ish) pitchers, while gaining more team control and at a lower salary. So they've even added "young controllable talent". And the idea of signing these short-term free agent deals with veterans actually helps that. You add wins to the roster without giving up prospects or comp picks. You don't have highly paid veterans for years blocking talented prospects. It allows prospects to develop and come up to the majors when ready.

 

There are still moves that will happen, I'm sure, but I'd say that this offseason further solidifies the idea of Stearns as being 100% about the value, and (Like I talked about in the "recreating in the aggregate" bit) not thinking about the roster in terms of specific positions, or starters and bench players. Not focusing on replacing an allstar 3B/C combo, but on replacing the runs and wins they contributed. So the team will enter 2021 with very little guaranteed money on the books, and another year of prospect development. Allowing for either a soft reset or a spending push, depending on how their signings and their prospects play out.

 

I like that the offense will be seemingly less strikeout-prone and less HR-reliant. If the balls stay juiced that might not be a positive move overall, but I think it'll be more enjoyable and less frustrating to watch.

[Thurston Fluff]

I'd say that this offseason further solidifies the idea of Stearns as being 100% about the value, and (Like I talked about in the "recreating in the aggregate" bit) not thinking about the roster in terms of specific positions, or starters and bench players. Not focusing on replacing an allstar 3B/C combo, but on replacing the runs and wins they contributed.

 

This is spot on. XISXISXIS still has a tag about this from from JosephC a few years ago. I was sort of mocking Stearns moves at the trade deadline but it demonstrates your point on how Stearns operates very well.

 

Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS

 

Considering we went on to have the best record in the NL that season, in no small part because of those moves, I think the idea you so very aptly laid out is a promising way to go about roster building. It's also why I'm not nearly as worried about starting pitching as most people seem to be. We didn't have the best starters the last two years but we had a better record than a lot of teams who had better starting pitching.

[torts]

HECK YEAH!!!!!!!

[bork]

The competition will light a fire under Arcia and he'll start raking and force them to play him a lot at SS. Then Urias will be mashing at 3B.

[TJseven7]

Narvaez Pina

Smoak Braun

Hiura Sogard

Urias Arcia

XXX Sogard

Yelich Garcia Cain Braun Gamel/Broxton

 

Is a strong group. I'm extremely excited about the upside of Urias and I can't believe we got him for a corner OF. Another solid addition at 3b will cap off a very good offense. The thing I like most about it is that I can't find a lot of bad ABs in that group. This group could wear arms out. Every single batter (save Arica) keeps Ks in check and takes their walks. It just looks like a very disciplined group.

 

Stashing Healy, Nottingham, Broxton/Gamel, Taylor and Matthias in AAA is a really good spread of emergency options.

 

Woodruff Anderson Houser Linblom

Knebel Hader Peralta Suter Black

Leaves me wanting 2 SPs and 2 RPs but the makings are there for a very solid staff. DS being tight with his values has left money to keep adding.

 

If MKE can start Lauer Burnes Supak Brown Jankins in AAA they are very very deep.

The AAA pen is a heck of a list. Claudio Feyeriesen Perdomo Wahl Williams Yardley Barker QTC

 

There will be options for the MLB shuttle in that group.

 

This team is getting insanely deep.

[tigerbrew]

I will be unabashed optimistic when the Brewers sign Ryu.

[wntrtxn21]

Narvaez Pina

Smoak Braun

Hiura Sogard

Urias Arcia

XXX Sogard

Yelich Garcia Cain Braun Gamel/Broxton

 

Is a strong group. I'm extremely excited about the upside of Urias and I can't believe we got him for a corner OF. Another solid addition at 3b will cap off a very good offense. The thing I like most about it is that I can't find a lot of bad ABs in that group. This group could wear arms out. Every single batter (save Arica) keeps Ks in check and takes their walks. It just looks like a very disciplined group.

 

Stashing Healy, Nottingham, Broxton/Gamel, Taylor and Matthias in AAA is a really good spread of emergency options.

 

Woodruff Anderson Houser Linblom

Knebel Hader Peralta Suter Black

Leaves me wanting 2 SPs and 2 RPs but the makings are there for a very solid staff. DS being tight with his values has left money to keep adding.

 

If MKE can start Lauer Burnes Supak Brown Jankins in AAA they are very very deep.

The AAA pen is a heck of a list. Claudio Feyeriesen Perdomo Wahl Williams Yardley Barker QTC

 

IMO Stearns got Lauer to start in the big leagues and Claudio will definitely be in the big leagues. The Crew is deep in spots, but not where they need it. At 3B and SP. None of the guys at AAA are anybody to get excited about. Burnes could be, but after the horrendous year he had last year, he needs to prove a lot.

 

There will be options for the MLB shuttle in that group.

 

This team is getting insanely deep.

[Ennder]

I think the team still needs depth at 3B even if it is another part time type guy and they need a more solid SP and maybe one more bullpen arm. What Stearns has done overall this offseason is great. A lot of people are going to think this was a bad offseason because these aren't big names but every single guy he signed has put up league average or better production at times over the past 3 years. If even half of them move back to that production this is a huge win of an offseason, if they mostly play to their 3 year averages it is a modest win. There is a lot of depth here and I don't expect a lot of PA from replacement level players which is what really hurt the team last year.