Justin Smoak to the Brewers

[brewcrewdue80]

On the subject of spray hitting. Does it differentiate from split hitters? Or is the spray chart based on every hit regardless batting Left vs Right?

 

This isn't spray graph but close:

 

 

Looks like he pulls from either side. Moreso from the left side.

 

Yeah so when he bats LH hes going to be batting vs the shift. RH less likely.

[TJseven7]

I somehow had a very skewed opinion on Smoak. This is basically a lateral move. Smoak has played more, Smoak strikes out less, Smoak isn't a black hole vs LHP.

 

Not bad for 2 mil less this year and 1 mil less overall. Plus the added option of keeping him in 2021 if 2020 proves worth it.

 

Smoak or Thames either works.

[Ennder]

I somehow had a very skewed opinion on Smoak. This is basically a lateral move. Smoak has played more, Smoak strikes out less, Smoak isn't a black hole vs LHP.

 

Not bad for 2 mil less this year and 1 mil less overall. Plus the added option of keeping him in 2021 if 2020 proves worth it.

 

Smoak or Thames either works.

 

If Smoak had played like he did in 2017 or 2018 last year he would be making $10M+ a year. So the question is just was last year just an off year or did something change. The underlying stat suggests it was just an off year but you can never be sure. This could easily be a nice bargain.

[KeithStone53151]

Smoak wRC+ from 2017-2019 is 128. Just below Jose Abreu, Mitch Haniger, Charlie Blackmon, and Kris Bryant...just above Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton, Aaron Hicks. During that same period, Moose had 110 and Garcia had 117.

[MNBrew]

Is there a reason Sternes wants to turn the team into the Mariners?

Smoak played 684 games for Toronto but only 496 games for Seattle.

 

He was drafted by Oakland and made his major league debut with Texas.

 

This is like suggesting Gary Sheffield was mostly a Brewer just because he played his first 300 games there.

By this logic, Smoak is mostly a Ranger.

[3and2Fastball]

I love how stats can be cherry picked. I’m happy with the signing, just find the stats talk funny. If we leave out his career year of 2017, how does Smoak rank looking at the last 2 seasons of ‘18 & ‘19?

[long ball]

The fan in me hates this. I've been a big Thames fan since he came to the Brewers. I like him and I was stilling holding out hope he'd re-sign (still don't really agree with the buy out if the plan was to just bring in a slightly cheaper version of him though).

 

I'm not mad about this off season. I think they could be good next year. Just going to be weird rooting for so many new guys while players I really liked like Davies and Thames we shipped out for roughly the same, but cheaper versions of themselves.

 

Stearns said recently that he thinks fans mostly care about winning. I agree, but when you become fans of certain players too it sucks when the off season went like this. It's like being a Packers fan in the Thompson era.

 

Now, having said all that... Smoak might complement this roster a little better than Thames does at a cheaper price. The move is fine and I'm glad they aren't counting on Braun needing to start 80+ games at first base.

[TJseven7]

I somehow had a very skewed opinion on Smoak. This is basically a lateral move. Smoak has played more, Smoak strikes out less, Smoak isn't a black hole vs LHP.

 

Not bad for 2 mil less this year and 1 mil less overall. Plus the added option of keeping him in 2021 if 2020 proves worth it.

 

Smoak or Thames either works.

 

If Smoak had played like he did in 2017 or 2018 last year he would be making $10M+ a year. So the question is just was last year just an off year or did something change. The underlying stat suggests it was just an off year but you can never be sure. This could easily be a nice bargain.

 

I find it strange the professional FOs can be dumb enough to pay guys based on "what have you done for me lately." Haven't analytics pushed them past that at this point?

[3and2Fastball]

Stearns said recently that he thinks fans mostly care about winning.

 

I think most Brewers fans care about Beer. And having fun at the ballpark. And winning is up there, yes.

 

A lot of casual Brewers fans have their favorites. They love yelling “Moose!!!”, they love Hernan because he can play multiple positions. They love Jesus Aguillar because he looks like Shrek and hits bombs. Etc... the players that are colorful characters become part of the daily fun of being a fan, in between beers.

 

As long as a winning team keeps their superstar (Yelich), fans will adopt a new cast of characters as favorites while the beer keeps flowing and the team keeps winning.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I'm just hoping next year he uses one of these two songs for his walkup music.

 

 

 

He didn't in Toronto, but new team new league. Time to break out a classic.

[markedman5]

I'm just hoping next year he uses one of these two songs for his walkup music.

 

 

 

He didn't in Toronto, but new team new league. Time to break out a classic.

 

Or.......

[sveumrules]

I love how stats can be cherry picked. I’m happy with the signing, just find the stats talk funny. If we leave out his career year of 2017, how does Smoak rank looking at the last 2 seasons of ‘18 & ‘19?

 

From 2018-19 Smoak posted...

 

wRC+: 112 | BB%: 14.8 | K%: 23.9 | ISO: .208

 

Average 1B from 2018-19 posted...

 

wRC+: 108 | BB%: 10.0 | K%: 22.3 | ISO: .196

 

Brewers 1B from 2018-19 posted...

 

wRC+: 118 | BB%: 11.3 | K%: 25.9 | ISO: .244

[3and2Fastball]

I love how stats can be cherry picked. I’m happy with the signing, just find the stats talk funny. If we leave out his career year of 2017, how does Smoak rank looking at the last 2 seasons of ‘18 & ‘19?

 

From 2018-19 Smoak posted...

 

wRC+: 112 | BB%: 14.8 | K%: 23.9 | ISO: .208

 

Average 1B from 2018-19 posted...

 

wRC+: 108 | BB%: 10.0 | K%: 22.3 | ISO: .196

 

Brewers 1B from 2018-19 posted...

 

wRC+: 118 | BB%: 11.3 | K%: 25.9 | ISO: .244

 

Thanks! Even looking at it from that prism, he’s better than average, which (considering the contract) makes this clearly a great signing....

[recte44]

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Brewers may just be "in" on Donaldson ...

 

Agreed

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[clancyphile]

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Brewers may just be "in" on Donaldson ...

 

Agreed

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I hope not...

 

Too many years, too much money.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Get me Kyle Seager and I'm pumped for 2020

[rickh150]

Stearns said recently that he thinks fans mostly care about winning.

 

I think most Brewers fans care about Beer. And having fun at the ballpark. And winning is up there, yes.

 

A lot of casual Brewers fans have their favorites. They love yelling “Moose!!!”, they love Hernan because he can play multiple positions. They love Jesus Aguillar because he looks like Shrek and hits bombs. Etc... the players that are colorful characters become part of the daily fun of being a fan, in between beers.

 

As long as a winning team keeps their superstar (Yelich), fans will adopt a new cast of characters as favorites while the beer keeps flowing and the team keeps winning.

 

No, Brewers fans want to win first. Then it's having fun at the ballpark. Take away the winning, or being relevant in playoff races, the crowds will go too. It's no longer the place to be when you are a 90 loss team, and most find somewhere else to spends their money. Oh, they will still come to Miller Park, just less. Actually your last paragraph says it well.... the beer is dependent on the winning and winning players.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

^That's well established to be false. The crowds don't really go anywhere even when the team sucks. There are more sellouts when they win, and a boost in attendance, but 2.5 million and 2.3 million in '15 and 16, 68- and 73-win seasons. They were still damn near 2 million winning 56 games. It's actually remarkable given the size of the city.

 

So yes, they care about winning, but I think it's clear the majority just want a good time. Many are going 1-2x per year.

[TJseven7]

^That's well established to be false. The crowds don't really go anywhere even when the team sucks. There are more sellouts when they win, and a boost in attendance, but 2.5 million and 2.3 million in '15 and 16, 68- and 73-win seasons. They were still damn near 2 million winning 56 games. It's actually remarkable given the size of the city.

 

So yes, they care about winning, but I think it's clear the majority just want a good time. Many are going 1-2x per year.

 

This state supports their teams well but you can't look at 2 mil and nearly 3 mil as the same thing. It's a 50% increase. 1 million less in sales volume is significant and shows the impact of winning that people are pointing to.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm not, but the winning is definitely not getting a million more people in the gates. They drew 2.8m after a 74-win season in 2013. The fact is that since MP was built and the climate was controlled, the attendance has drastically increased, which supports the idea that MOST people really only care about having a nice day when they go. The evidence is much stronger for that argument than winning bringing people in. Both of those things attract people, that's obvious, but winning a bunch of games is not netting a million people. More like 300k. Significant but it's not a primary driver IMO.

 

Another factor that can't be ignored is their use of extremely popular promotions over the last decade which is far more expansive than in years prior. The restaurants, the "experience," the bars...there's a much higher floor for attendance than there was in the 90s.

[rickh150]

^That's well established to be false. The crowds don't really go anywhere even when the team sucks. There are more sellouts when they win, and a boost in attendance, but 2.5 million and 2.3 million in '15 and 16, 68- and 73-win seasons. They were still damn near 2 million winning 56 games. It's actually remarkable given the size of the city.

 

So yes, they care about winning, but I think it's clear the majority just want a good time. Many are going 1-2x per year.

 

No way did 2.3 million fans come through the doors or buy tickets in 2016. Going to those games, we'd guess there was 20,000 people there and the announced figure was 30,000. Counting free tickets and giveaway tickets galore was prevalent to keeping the idea that Miller was still the place to be for sponsors and the General fan.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

That's a completely impossible thing to gauge with your eyes. And no, there were not 10k empty ticketed seats at 81 games. Sorry but that just did not happen. There have been a lot of giveaways for many years now that inflate those figures slightly but it still occurs when the team is winning. It happened at several games last year. You are drastically overstating it.

 

The point is that winning is not what gets MOST, key word MOST people to MP. A website like this has a naturally inflated sense of the importance of this. A team like MKE cannot sustain itself relying on winning. It is the tailgate culture and climate controlled drinking + affordable family fun that's getting most people out on a given day. Not seeing a winner.

[LouisEly]

Smoak isn't a black hole vs LHP.

OPS vs LHP:

 

Thames: .679 (2019), .612 (2018)

 

Smoak: .672 (2019), .688 (2018)

[bill hAll Star]

Smoak isn't a black hole vs LHP.

OPS vs LHP:

 

Thames: .679 (2019), .612 (2018)

 

Smoak: .672 (2019), .688 (2018)

 

PAs vs LHP:

 

Thames: 62 (2019), 29 (2018)

 

Smoak: 154 (2019), 192 (2018)

 

You can take that in a number of ways, namely that the Blue Jays had much less motivation to try to win the last few years and that Smoak was coming off a good 2017 as a RH hitter.

 

That said, I think the assumption would be that Thames is poor enough vs. LHP that his numbers would keep dropping with increased chances. Thames was saved in 2017 by a few HR but he was terrible at getting on base against LHP when he had some increased ABs.

 

So yes, I do think Smoak is much better against LHP. I'd still prefer to play Braun 90% of the time in those situations, but Smoak is not a black hole, as described by the previous poster. I think Thames probably is, which is why the Brewers avoided ABs vs LHP at all costs for him.

 

Smoak also crushed lefty pitching in 2017 as noted above. I'm not expecting that to ever happen again but it also means that I wouldn't be surprised by a solid year against LHP or maybe even one more great one. I would be completely shocked and stunned if Thames mashed LHP for 200 plate appearances in a season.

[topper09er]

The point is that winning is not what gets MOST, key word MOST people to MP. A website like this has a naturally inflated sense of the importance of this. A team like MKE cannot sustain itself relying on winning. It is the tailgate culture and climate controlled drinking + affordable family fun that's getting most people out on a given day. Not seeing a winner.

 

Umm, most of us peasants do not consider major league baseball as affordable at all