Justin Smoak to the Brewers

[reillymcshane]

I expected the Crew to add a 1B-type guy, such as Smoak, Thames or Cron. I figured around $5M would do the job.

 

Still, Smoak makes me uneasy, but I can see the appeal at the price. If he rebounds - even a little - he's a 2.0 WAR type guy. Nothing great, but passable. His defense is probably a bit better than Thames', and he isn't a complete basket case against left handers (which will nice).

 

All and all, nothing inspiring, but I understand the move.

 

I am hoping for an elite bat to be added to the lineup, but I'm not sure it's going to happen. Donaldson would be perfect, but I'm just not seeing that. I'm guessing we'll go toward a lower tier bat, such as 3B Kyle Seager. Definitely not on the level of Donaldson.

 

Otherwise, a trade may be in the works using Hader as bait (no one else, outside of Woodruff, Yelich and Hiura would fetch a high-end bat - and those guys aren't going anywhere).

 

I am hoping to see a good bat, a starting pitcher, and a reliever added in the coming weeks and months. And I'm not talking about grade C type players -- but quality players who can make a difference. All three slots might be asking too much, but we shall see how things fall. Not sure where payroll is going, which obviously affects decisions.

[KeithStone53151]

I agree with this. Stearns made other moves previous years to cut loose high k players, at this point he has very few holdovers from before his tenure and the roster is mostly his guys.

 

Smoak certainly isn't a low k guy, but his roughly 22% over the last 3 years is lower than Thames 31%. Probably not Stearns ideal guy, but a move in the right direction.

 

...and then he signs Keon Broxton.

 

Broxton is going to compete for the 7th OF role. He might not even start everyday in AAA. Broxton is completely negligible in this case. His primary value will probably be in being the 28th man in September and defense/PH opportunities late in games. The odds of him touching a bat in an MLB game more than 5 times this year for the Brewers is very very low. I would gladly bet the under if able.

[LouisEly]

Also add the Cubs are still pretty loaded with LHP, and despite their payroll issues still have a lot of untapped potential on their MLB roster.

Hamels is gone, and Lester and Quintana are fading.

[jonescm128]

I agree with this. Stearns made other moves previous years to cut loose high k players, at this point he has very few holdovers from before his tenure and the roster is mostly his guys.

 

Smoak certainly isn't a low k guy, but his roughly 22% over the last 3 years is lower than Thames 31%. Probably not Stearns ideal guy, but a move in the right direction.

 

...and then he signs Keon Broxton.

 

Broxton is going to compete for the 7th OF role. He might not even start everyday in AAA. Broxton is completely negligible in this case. His primary value will probably be in being the 28th man in September and defense/PH opportunities late in games. The odds of him touching a bat in an MLB game more than 5 times this year for the Brewers is very very low. I would gladly bet the under if able.

 

Yeah I know, just making a bad joke. It's pretty impressive how often he strikes out. 45.6% last year and 38.6% for his career. I wonder where that ranks in history with the amount of ABs he has accumulated. Gotta be up near the top I would imagine.

 

I mean, even Adam Dunn had a career 28.6% K rate

[Boomer5]

Not much of a player. We drained some salary to add essentially non needle movers. Weird offseason.

[stoutdude04]

Some guy posted this on twitter. No idea if true, but if so, I thought it was interesting.

 

Players with more home runs and more walks than Justin Smoak since 2017:

 

Mike Trout

Aaron Judge

Paul Goldschmidt

Bryce Harper

Alex Bregman

Mookie Betts

 

Only Trout, Bregman, and Betts also have fewer strikeouts.

[Matty V]

This deal sucks. I'm at work so I can't get into more detail but just wanted to exercise my fan right to state my displeasure.

[homer]

For his career, Smoak has a 695 OPS against lefties. Thames is 648.

[jonescm128]

Some guy posted this on twitter. No idea if true, but if so, I thought it was interesting.

 

Players with more home runs and more walks than Justin Smoak since 2017:

 

Mike Trout

Aaron Judge

Paul Goldschmidt

Bryce Harper

Alex Bregman

Mookie Betts

 

Only Trout, Bregman, and Betts also have fewer strikeouts.

 

It checks out. Pretty impressive.

[patrickgpe]

This deal sucks. I'm at work so I can't get into more detail but just wanted to exercise my fan right to state my displeasure.

it is your god given right to do so, but its just a 1 year deal for 5 million, so even if it goes south (don't think it will), the brewers will be OK.

[brewcrewdue80]

What I read in comments from MLBTR Jays fans said hes unlucky due to shifts. At the same time heres positives.

He is a top 10 in the league for BBs(Grandal)

He is around top of the League for Pirches per AB seen.

His K pct is likely below 25%

 

Splits are hes better vs RHP. If we're talking Platoon with Braun hasn't Braun struggled more recently vs RHP? Checking and the OPS was just at 800. Still better than Smoak but marginally. What Smoak must be dealing with is a Heavy shift when batting LH.

 

Another positive. Smoak's most often placement in batting order was 3rd! last season. He should fill in at the 5 or 6 range making that "clog the base paths" comment from Jay fans less important.

They seem to be high on his defense. Whatever the stats say. Sounds like we aren't needing to worry about his defense.

So less Ks more BBs than Shaw or Thames of last season. Seems we are improved than last season at 1b. Does take away the fitting a Hader from Mets trade ideas.

Money saved though.

[RollieTime]

What I read in comments from MLBTR Jays fans said hes unlucky due to shifts. At the same time heres positives.

He is a top 10 in the league for BBs(Grandal)

He is around top of the League for Pirches per AB seen.

His K pct is likely below 25%

 

Splits are hes better vs RHP. If we're talking Platoon with Braun hasn't Braun struggled more recently vs RHP? Checking and the OPS was just at 800. Still better than Smoak but marginally. What Smoak must be dealing with is a Heavy shift when batting LH.

 

Another positive. Smoak's most often placement in batting order was 3rd! last season. He should fill in at the 5 or 6 range making that "clog the base paths" comment from Jay fans less important.

They seem to be high on his defense. Whatever the stats say. Sounds like we aren't needing to worry about his defense.

So less Ks more BBs than Shaw or Thames of last season. Seems we are improved than last season at 1b. Does take away the fitting a Hader from Mets trade ideas.

Money saved though.

 

I remember when people were talking about how unlucky Shaw was in 2018 because he was hitting the ball hard, but right at the defenders based on his babip. Shaw’s babip was so low in 2018 (.242) that people thought he was going to explode in 2019... He followed that up by having a babip of .216.

 

The Brewers obviously didn’t think it was him being “unlucky”. They probably thought he couldn’t adapt as a hitter to avoid hitting into the shift.

 

Not sure on Smoak as the hitter, but is it possible that his “unluckiness” is just him hitting it right into the shift like Shaw? Leading people to believe he’s a bounce back candidate, but in reality he just hasn’t adapted to hitting away from the shift?

 

I’m honestly curious and don’t know much about Smoak, but it’ll be interesting to know if he’s a true spray hitter and was unlucky or is essentially a clone of Shaw that shows that he’s “unlucky”, but it’s because of his inability to go the other way effectively.

[PinaMadness]

Is there a reason Sternes wants to turn the team into the Mariners?

[homer]

Shaw was K'ing 33% of the time last year too. He swung at more pitches outside the zone than Smoak and he swung and missed more than Smoak.

 

So BABIP, like a lot of stats, is only good in context with other information.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Stearns has been a busy, busy man no doubt.

 

Overall, I thinks he's having a nearly great offseason so far.

 

If he could have signed Ryu or Bumgarner, or even Teheran or TWalker, instead of Brett Anderson, I'd be even more pumped for 2020.

[3and2Fastball]

Is there a reason Sternes wants to turn the team into the Mariners?

 

Yes, he knows that Jerry Dipoto is a trade addict, and Stearns can just trade guys back to the Mariners at any time. Sort of a time share, but with players. There is also a portal in space with the Seattle Pilots that Stearns is able to leverage.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Stearns has been a busy, busy man no doubt.

 

Overall, I thinks he's having a nearly great offseason so far.

 

If he could have signed Ryu or Bumgarner, or even Teheran or TWalker, instead of Brett Anderson, I'd be even more pumped for 2020.

 

You have certainly made your feelings on Brett Anderson perfectly clear and obvious.

[Ennder]

2019 Shaw was completely lost at the plate, it really has no relation at all to 2018 Shaw and whether he was unlucky or not. There was no way to foresee 2019 Shaw other than to just not like the guy and say he sucks and happen to get lucky.

[brewcrewdue80]

On the subject of spray hitting. Does it differentiate from split hitters? Or is the spray chart based on every hit regardless batting Left vs Right?

[SeaBass]

Is there a reason Sternes wants to turn the team into the Mariners?

Smoak played 684 games for Toronto but only 496 games for Seattle.

 

He was drafted by Oakland and made his major league debut with Texas.

 

This is like suggesting Gary Sheffield was mostly a Brewer just because he played his first 300 games there.

[Matty V]

This deal sucks. I'm at work so I can't get into more detail but just wanted to exercise my fan right to state my displeasure.

 

 

Ok, I'm starting to warm up to this deal. I would have been fine with bringing Eric Thames back and I don't know that this is a downgrade. I do hope they keep him away from LHP though.

 

I guess my bigger beef is if they go with Eric Sogard as the primary 3B. That would not be good.

[homer]

On the subject of spray hitting. Does it differentiate from split hitters? Or is the spray chart based on every hit regardless batting Left vs Right?

 

This isn't spray graph but close:

 

 

Looks like he pulls from either side. Moreso from the left side.

[PinaMadness]

Is there a reason Sternes wants to turn the team into the Mariners?

Smoak played 684 games for Toronto but only 496 games for Seattle.

 

He was drafted by Oakland and made his major league debut with Texas.

 

This is like suggesting Gary Sheffield was mostly a Brewer just because he played his first 300 games there.

You don't understand. Smoak is not the only ex Mariner Stearnes has signed. He's not even the second.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Is there a reason Sternes wants to turn the team into the Mariners?

Smoak played 684 games for Toronto but only 496 games for Seattle.

 

He was drafted by Oakland and made his major league debut with Texas.

 

This is like suggesting Gary Sheffield was mostly a Brewer just because he played his first 300 games there.

You don't understand. Smoak is not the only ex Mariner Stearnes has signed. He's not even the second.

 

So

What?

[IIAY]

Props to Uwbadgers442 for calling this one back in November.