Justin Smoak to the Brewers

[bigredrobbo]

I, too, heard we were the semi-mythical "mystery team" in on Rendon. For what it's worth, I was "in" on marrying Megan Markle before she got wed to Prince Harry, and I think the odds of either were about the same!

[xisxisxis]

Over the last three years Smoak has gone from a 3.55 bWAR/fWAR to a 2.0 bWAR/fWAR to a 0.4 bWAR/fWAR last year. Wrong direction.

Joseph, Joseph, Joseph, you don't look at the trend, you focus in on 3.55 then add the miracle Miller Park bump and you got 5 fWAR. I can share the calculation with you, but it was developed by others...

[jonescm128]

With each of the recent moves the overall roster construction seems less appealing to me. I have been holding out hope that an above average bat was going to be added to one of the corner infield spots. This move makes that appear less likely to occur at 1B now, so it's seemingly now down to what else they do at 3B.

 

Smoak is projected for a .342 wOBA. He had a .371 wOBA in 637 PA two years ago. His numbers will go up because we have the luxury of soft platooning him with Braun.

 

Not sure what you consider an above average bat?

 

I think Stearns's roster construction is brilliant. All we need now is to trade Arcia and find a quality 3B (in a dream would Donaldson) for in all honest the deepest positional roster in recent memory.

Yeah, let me walk my comment back a little as I think I overstated it. I get that they are improving in the margins, and that isn't a bad thing. I don't necessarily think the the current path of the roster construction is poor, but it now seems somewhat contingent on adding a quality every day third baseman. In my opinion, this article's findings ring more true than ever, Where Would The Top MLB Free Agents Make The Biggest Difference?. The lineup with one more hitter that they can confidently insert into the #3 spot in the order would change the complexion of the rest of these moves for me.

 

I read this when it came out and really enjoyed it. They usually put out some cool stuff.

[Roderick]

Sign a $5-$10 million free agent 3B - 30%

 

Sign a $5-$10M free agent. Is there anyone other than Todd Frazier or Asdrubal Cabrera left?

[monty57]

Kind of hard to compare what Smoak does vs what Thames does, since Thames is a strict platoon player and Smoak is not. Thames requires another player on the roster, while Smoak does not, and Thames "average" numbers look far better because he was only used against RHP than they would if he played everyday. Smoak is projected to be a 1.2-1.3 WAR player, which pretty much equals what we got at 1B last year (Thames/Aguilar) for less money.

 

As the previously referenced Twitter post mentioned, our offense will be different, but we have (at least in theory) made up for what we lost in production from last season offensively, and that's without an everyday third baseman. I believe we will find an everyday 3B, and whatever "projected positive WAR" he brings to the table theoretically should be the "projected positive WAR" our offense will provide over last year's end results.

 

Projections are educated guesses, and anything can happen, but "on paper" I think Stearns is doing a good job of replacing what we lost for significantly less than what the players we lost are getting in free agency.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

To the Brewers being the "mystery team" on Rendon, this is one of the articles that seems to indicate that:

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-third-base-market

 

Article speaks of the five teams driving the third base market; read the writeup on the Brewers at #5.

[wallus]

Still haven't seen anything that said we were in on Rendon or have been seriously in on Donaldson. That MLB link from the last page was just speculation at best.

 

Edit: I guess saying "probably" in on Rendon counts?

[liveforoctober]

Defense:

2017-2019 Thames 1855 innings at 1B = -5 DRS

2018-2019 Smoak 1899 innings at 1B = -6 DRS

 

UZR and Range both trending down for Smoak... yeah clearly *better*... Smoak WAS a very good defender at 1B, Justin Smoak circa 2020 is not.

 

And for offense... Check out the trendlines. Thames has been a very consistent 2 fWAR/500PA player the last 3 years for the Brewers. If you follow Smoak's trendline he'll make 2018 Sogard look better. Sure, it's unlikely that Smoak will fall off that cliff, but once again Brewer goggles distort any facts into the rosey brewer view that he will absolutely bounceback and produce like previous years... And of course if we ignore all the data, Grandal isn't that good and neither was Davies or Anderson or Moustakis or _______ (former Brewer) compared to the ________ we just picked up. Because WAR and other stats just fail the Brewer fan eye test...

 

.. and a Merry Christmas to you too!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Still haven't seen anything that said we were in on Rendon or have been seriously in on Donaldson. That MLB link from the last page was just speculation at best.

 

Stearns don't snitch. Educated speculation is all you're gonna get. The Brewers are obviously not a team that sits on their hands, though.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Still haven't seen anything that said we were in on Rendon or have been seriously in on Donaldson. That MLB link from the last page was just speculation at best.

 

Given the radio silence Stearns seems to prefer, that's probably the most we're likely to get. Reporter types hear whispers, but also I think you look at the payroll trimming, and try to guess what the plan is. Some said payroll cutting for the sake of payroll cutting, others looked at the extra budget and said, hm, that's a Donaldson sized gap in the budget.

 

I'd like it to be true, but I think anyone who tells you definitively that they know what Stearns is up to before he does it is full of it.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Over the last three years Smoak has gone from a 3.55 bWAR/fWAR to a 2.0 bWAR/fWAR to a 0.4 bWAR/fWAR last year. Wrong direction.

Joseph, Joseph, Joseph, you don't look at the trend, you focus in on 3.55 then add the miracle Miller Park bump and you got 5 fWAR. I can share the calculation with you, but it was developed by others...

 

Or you can take a realistic approach, understand that at 33 years old, Smoak isn't in his prime, but still can provide the same if not better production they had at 1B the last two playoff seasons, and take the money saved to improve elsewhere.

 

No one, NO ONE, is saying Smoak is a 5fWAR player. It has been pointed out however the Brewers have now matched their 2019 STREAMER projections for $25 million less. What could possibly be wrong with that. That's just intelligent maneuvering.

[bill hAll Star]

Smoak is probably the ~1 WAR guy he seems to be. He had a miraculous season from the RH side of the plate in 2017. I think if platooned correctly he will provide good value. His value was bogged down a bit by getting a fair amount of RH plate appearances the past two years.

[Yount19]

Richard Justice on MLB Network said during the winter meetings, the Brewers were in on Rendon (said the Lobby was talk filled with a possible Brewers / Rendon connection).

[wallus]

Still haven't seen anything that said we were in on Rendon or have been seriously in on Donaldson. That MLB link from the last page was just speculation at best.

 

Given the radio silence Stearns seems to prefer, that's probably the most we're likely to get. Reporter types hear whispers, but also I think you look at the payroll trimming, and try to guess what the plan is. Some said payroll cutting for the sake of payroll cutting, others looked at the extra budget and said, hm, that's a Donaldson sized gap in the budget.

 

I'd like it to be true, but I think anyone who tells you definitively that they know what Stearns is up to before he does it is full of it.

 

Oh I want you to be correct. Donaldson would be a huge get for the lineup.

[adambr2]

Joey Meyer Bombs, you mentioned we were in on Rendon...do you have a link for that?

 

I read that as "the talk around the lobby" at the winter meetings last week. Can't remember where I saw it now. One of the "insiders" on Twitter. It was definitely not a made up thing, though. Brewers were one of the most aggressive teams in talks last week.

 

viewtopic.php?f=66&t=39335&start=280

 

Unless you read something different than what I did, this is the only thing I saw speculating they we were in on Rendon, much less made a strong play for him. I think it's probably a stretch to say that. I'm guessing we attended the auction to see the bidding but that's about as far as things went. I doubt we were one of the top 5 teams in on Rendon.

 

Just my opinion, of course. Obviously Donaldson is still out there and that would still be a heck of a blockbuster.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Richard Justice on MLB Network said during the winter meetings, the Brewers were in on Rendon (said the Lobby was talk filled with a possible Brewers / Rendon connection).

 

Yep, that's what I saw. Obviously speculation ... but not completely out of leftfield either.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Sign a $5-$10 million free agent 3B - 30%

 

Sign a $5-$10M free agent. Is there anyone other than Todd Frazier or Asdrubal Cabrera left?

 

Not much, that's why I said the odds would be much higher if the available crop wasn't so thin. I also wouldn't put it past them to get creative and sign someone for 3B who played another primary position but has played 3B at times.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Smoak has always walked a lot, and he has some clear power.

 

If he is in the 2017-2018 form, this is a good deal.

 

Than again, if Ray rebounds, if Taylor does well, if Erceg turns things around, and if Cooper Hummel shows that his third-place WRC isn't a fluke... they may be supplanted by home-grown talent.

 

There is a wave of talent. Not a ton of first-rounders or folks conventionally considered "blue-chip" prospects, but at times, Cam Roegner, Supak, Dylan File, Bettinger, Lazar, and some others have really flashed dominance. They're going to be in the high minors. Then there's Andrews, Rasmussen, QTC... lots of talent.

 

Outside of possibly Supak or perhaps Ray, I don't expect the Brewers will get any MLB production from those minor leaguers you mentioned in 2020.

[KeithStone53151]

Smoak is probably the ~1 WAR guy he seems to be. He had a miraculous season from the RH side of the plate in 2017. I think if platooned correctly he will provide good value. His value was bogged down a bit by getting a fair amount of RH plate appearances the past two years.

 

This seems fair. I'd argue he might inch closer to 2 WAR in Miller Park...but it's pretty close. I would expect Smoak to be platooned quite often. Of Smoak/Garcia/Braun...I would expect Smoak to get the least amount of PT of the 3 barring injury. The back of napkin math is probably something like 92/115/115 between the 2 spots. There might be maybe 20-30 more starts to go around for the 3 of them between Cain/Yelich offdays...all depending how many Cain gets(I'm expecting Yelich to get something like 5 or 6 all year).

[Tbadder]

I like Smoak better than Thames but only slightly. If you think about it from Thames p.o.v why would you want to come back to a team that nontendered you to save a couple million bucks? I remain in the uneasy camp, but mainly because of defense. If Arcia is not in the line up you’re essentially fielding a lack of range infield which is going to cost your pitchers. I do like the outfield defense if Garcia plays right. Shifting is also going to be less successful because Arcia guarded some 2nd base and a little 3rd base territory. It’s pretty obvious that the catching defense will decline, maybe significantly.

 

Offensively I do believe in the Miller Park bounce based on Yelich and Grandal, but will it be enough? Don’t know, but I expect some mitigation. I can’t see us signing Donaldson. The Cain contract might be difficult enough for us to handle, but if Donaldson’s contract becomes dead weight as well it could really have ramifications on the player acquisition front.

[monty57]

Don't know if we have the resources to land Donaldson, but his AAV may come down a bit for any team willing to go the 4th year with him. Of course, that would mean that we'd be paying him a lot of money in four years when he's probably not going to be all that productive.

[Vollbc74]

Using their last 2 years splits, a hard platoon of Smoak/Braun at 1B would result in a 240avg/355obp/498slg/853ops. I'll take that production for the expected cost, not to mention Braun's added AB's in the OF.

[Bulldogboy]

This offseason hasn't been flashy but still productive. If Smoak does what he does but at Miller Park he will be fine. The key to me is unlocking what Urias can do with the bat. Him and Hiura excite me. Add Garcia as 4th outfielder instead of Gamel etc the offense could be better. Would love a trade to get Seger to play third base because Sogard is definitely not the answer. Add another starter and they should be good to go.

[bill hAll Star]

If the Brewers are in on Donaldson or might end up overpaying for Seager.

 

This is like when you're sitting in an auction fantasy draft and you've paid for bargains in the middle with a list of sleepers in your pocket at the end. "Alright, I think Ryan McMahon is a sneaky pickup this year with a starting role in Coors." Or maybe you didn't grab a 1B but you were waiting to buy a Joey Votto bounceback the whole time.

 

Then you get to that portion of the draft and not only do you have $20 to spread across your sleepers...but 3 other guys all have $15-20.

 

You finally nominate the guy you want to sneak through and the bidding keeps going up by a dollar. In the end you end up paying more for Votto than 3 or 4 of the guys ranked in front of him.

 

I'm not going to complain if the Brewers take on most or all of Seager's contract or really do pay Donaldson big money. But we're at that point of the game where that may be the option.

[3and2Fastball]

Narvaez is the guy I expect more of a “Miller Park Bounce” than Smoak (Toronto isn’t exactly a pitcher’s park) but I could see Smoak benefiting from being in Milwaukee, and also not playing 54 games against NY, Boston & Tampa pitching (!)