Justin Smoak to the Brewers

[jonescm128]

"Stearns says on @MLBNetworkRadio that this isn't a year to take a step back but rather to reconfigure. He said they needed to make incremental upgrades where they could and if they're right on more of these changes than not, they'll be better than last season." - @BrewerNation

 

Upgrades at the margins is so important. Everyone looks for the huge impact signing/acquisition but making incremental improvements is crucial.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Brewers may just be "in" on Donaldson ...

 

Any reason you think that?

 

I think someone is going to give him a 4/110 deal.

 

Just the tea leaves I guess. Rumors last week that the Brewers made a strong play for Rendon. Healy is a (very) poor man's version of Donaldson, so it would stand to reason that he would be a solid back-up plan should Donaldson have injury concerns. Call it a somewhat educated hunch I suppose.

 

Part of me also wonders if they may consider Castellanos at 3B, terrible defense and all.

[jonescm128]

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Brewers may just be "in" on Donaldson ...

 

Any reason you think that?

 

I think someone is going to give him a 4/110 deal.

 

Just the tea leaves I guess. Rumors last week that the Brewers made a strong play for Rendon. Healy is a (very) poor man's version of Donaldson, so it would stand to reason that he would be a solid back-up plan should Donaldson have injury concerns. Call it a somewhat educated hunch I suppose.

 

Part of me also wonders if they may consider Castellanos at 3B, terrible defense and all.

 

Brewers made a strong play for Rendon? I must have missed that. As long as it wasn't Bob Nightengale making that claim I will believe it.

 

I could see Castellanos. We definitely have the guys to come in as late inning defensive replacements.

 

Start the game with Castellanos, Urias, and Hiura and close it out with Urias, Arcia, and Sogard.

[wntrtxn21]

Immediate disclaimer: I know the roster is not complete. There's no way this is their 40-man come opening day.

 

However!

 

Could someone smarter than me detail the lineup/depth chart as it currently stands and how much money is still available, just for the sake of having a visual only?

 

I have us at $103m spent. Anybody's guess how much is "available". Based on last year, another $25m or so. But no guarantee they open with a payroll as big as last year. Lineup will be something like

 

Cain - CF

Yelich - RF

Hiura - 2b

Smoak - 1b

Garcia/Braun - LF

Narvaez - C

Urias - 3b

Arcia - SS

 

Braun will play some 1b as well. If we sign a 3b or Healy wins a job, Urias probably moves to SS. Sogard is available to fill in at 3b/2b/ss.

 

Let's hope your lineup never comes to fruition. It would be one of the weakest lineups in all Mlb and coupled with a very weak starting staff, the Crew would win 65-75 games tops.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Donaldson would be fun, but I'd place higher odds on a Hader deal bringing in their 3B. I'd break it down like this...

 

Trade middling prospects for a salary dump 3B - 40%

Sign a $5-$10 million free agent 3B - 30%

Trade Hader for a package that includes a new everyday 3B - 25%

Sign Josh Donaldson - 5%

 

I'd have signing a 3B other than Donaldson much higher if the available group wasn't so thin.

[KeithStone53151]

I wouldn't get my hopes up on Donaldson. Hard to imagine us outbidding the Nationals or other big market teams needing 3b. I haven't heard once that we are in on him...

[bill hAll Star]

Immediate disclaimer: I know the roster is not complete. There's no way this is their 40-man come opening day.

 

However!

 

Could someone smarter than me detail the lineup/depth chart as it currently stands and how much money is still available, just for the sake of having a visual only?

 

I have us at $103m spent. Anybody's guess how much is "available". Based on last year, another $25m or so. But no guarantee they open with a payroll as big as last year. Lineup will be something like

 

Cain - CF

Yelich - RF

Hiura - 2b

Smoak - 1b

Garcia/Braun - LF

Narvaez - C

Urias - 3b

Arcia - SS

 

Braun will play some 1b as well. If we sign a 3b or Healy wins a job, Urias probably moves to SS. Sogard is available to fill in at 3b/2b/ss.

 

Let's hope your lineup never comes to fruition. It would be one of the weakest lineups in all Mlb and coupled with a very weak starting staff, the Crew would win 65-75 games tops.

 

Do you have a venmo or any other payment service? I'd like to make a monetary bet with you.

[jonescm128]

Donaldson would be fun, but I'd place higher odds on a Hader deal bringing in their 3B. I'd break it down like this...

 

Trade middling prospects for a salary dump 3B - 40%

Sign a $5-$10 million free agent 3B - 30%

Trade Hader for a package that includes a new everyday 3B - 25%

Sign Josh Donaldson - 5%

 

I'd have signing a 3B other than Donaldson much higher if the available group wasn't so thin.

 

Do this, then sign Bentances to replace Hader.

[KeithStone53151]

Let's hope your lineup never comes to fruition. It would be one of the weakest lineups in all Mlb and coupled with a very weak starting staff, the Crew would win 65-75 games tops.

 

If you think this, you'll probably have a shot to take the under against vegas at between 83 and 86 wins pending what else we do. Should be a slam dunk for you.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Immediate disclaimer: I know the roster is not complete. There's no way this is their 40-man come opening day.

 

However!

 

Could someone smarter than me detail the lineup/depth chart as it currently stands and how much money is still available, just for the sake of having a visual only?

 

I have us at $103m spent. Anybody's guess how much is "available". Based on last year, another $25m or so. But no guarantee they open with a payroll as big as last year. Lineup will be something like

 

Cain - CF

Yelich - RF

Hiura - 2b

Smoak - 1b

Garcia/Braun - LF

Narvaez - C

Urias - 3b

Arcia - SS

 

Braun will play some 1b as well. If we sign a 3b or Healy wins a job, Urias probably moves to SS. Sogard is available to fill in at 3b/2b/ss.

 

Let's hope your lineup never comes to fruition. It would be one of the weakest lineups in all Mlb and coupled with a very weak starting staff, the Crew would win 65-75 games tops.

 

Willing to bet on that? That is EASY money.

[brewers888]

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Brewers may just be "in" on Donaldson ...

 

Any reason you think that?

 

I think someone is going to give him a 4/110 deal.

 

Just the tea leaves I guess. Rumors last week that the Brewers made a strong play for Rendon. Healy is a (very) poor man's version of Donaldson, so it would stand to reason that he would be a solid back-up plan should Donaldson have injury concerns. Call it a somewhat educated hunch I suppose.

 

Part of me also wonders if they may consider Castellanos at 3B, terrible defense and all.

 

I really hope they don't sign Castellanos for third base. I would have been fine with signing him to play OF or first base but we just cannot afford to have that defense at third base. We aren't winning anything with an infield defense including Narvaez, Urias, Hiura, and Castellanos every day.

[KeithStone53151]

I really hope they don't sign Castellanos for third base. I would have been fine with signing him to play OF or first base but we just cannot afford to have that defense at third base. We aren't winning anything with an infield defense including Narvaez, Urias, Hiura, and Castellanos every day.

 

I'm quite confident in saying virtually zero chance we or anybody else signs Castellanos to play 3b. He has a hard enough time fielding the baseball in the OF.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

I really hope they don't sign Castellanos for third base. I would have been fine with signing him to play OF or first base but we just cannot afford to have that defense at third base. We aren't winning anything with an infield defense including Narvaez, Urias, Hiura, and Castellanos every day.

 

All the reports I've seen indicate Urias will be just fine at SS. And with the way this team shifts around defensively, I think they could find a way to make it work. I mean, this is a team that, for two years in a row has put a lumbering 3B at 2B, and they've made it work. I have little doubt that they could make Castellanos at 3B work as well.

 

Now obviously having a + defender like Donaldson at 3B is a better option, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they found a way to make Castellanos's defense work to make that lineup even more stacked.

[jonescm128]

Joey Meyer Bombs, you mentioned we were in on Rendon...do you have a link for that?

[A Swing and A Drive]

Justin Smoak seemed like the best free agent 1st Baseman left and at a good price with a club option.

 

Question for the fans not happy with this signing. Which 1B out there would you rather have signed?

 

Did you expect Stearns to trade for a more formidable 1B option?

[SoCalBrewfan]

Here's a link with another link with some speculation discussing Brewers on Rendon or Donaldson:

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/contenders-biggest-needs-for-2020

[brewerfan82]

Can they just do a Seager/Sheffield/Adams for Arcia/40-man filler swap and call it an offseason? Solidify 3B, get another rotation arm option with potential, and another guy to fight for a spot in the pen.

[bill hAll Star]

Can they just do a Seager/Sheffield/Adams for Arcia/40-man filler swap and call it an offseason? Solidify 3B, get another rotation arm option with potential, and another guy to fight for a spot in the pen.

 

I feel like after teams strike out on Donaldson that the Mariners will not be forced to attach a pretty good prospect to get someone on the hook for most or all of Seager's salary.

 

I'm guessing it's more likely the Brewers send something of value AND pick up a good deal of the contract.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Joey Meyer Bombs, you mentioned we were in on Rendon...do you have a link for that?

 

I read that as "the talk around the lobby" at the winter meetings last week. Can't remember where I saw it now. One of the "insiders" on Twitter. It was definitely not a made up thing, though. Brewers were one of the most aggressive teams in talks last week.

[xisxisxis]

Immediate disclaimer: I know the roster is not complete. There's no way this is their 40-man come opening day.

 

However!

 

Could someone smarter than me detail the lineup/depth chart as it currently stands and how much money is still available, just for the sake of having a visual only?

 

I have us at $103m spent. Anybody's guess how much is "available". Based on last year, another $25m or so. But no guarantee they open with a payroll as big as last year. Lineup will be something like

 

Cain - CF

Yelich - RF

Hiura - 2b

Smoak - 1b

Garcia/Braun - LF

Narvaez - C

Urias - 3b

Arcia - SS

 

Braun will play some 1b as well. If we sign a 3b or Healy wins a job, Urias probably moves to SS. Sogard is available to fill in at 3b/2b/ss.

I think it will be a pretty straight platoon. It's clear from 3 years of data with the Blue Jays that Smoak loses most of his power batting right handed. So Braun will get his 115 starts in LF/1B with Garcia taking the rest in the OF (it makes sense to have Garcia in RF with Yelich in LF when they both start). DH games will provide additional PA to go around the Smoak/Braun/Garcia group plus rest and unfortunately the invariable injury.

 

I'd feel a lot better about this team with a reasonable update at 3B.

[clancyphile]

Smoak has always walked a lot, and he has some clear power.

 

If he is in the 2017-2018 form, this is a good deal.

 

Than again, if Ray rebounds, if Taylor does well, if Erceg turns things around, and if Cooper Hummel shows that his third-place WRC isn't a fluke... they may be supplanted by home-grown talent.

 

There is a wave of talent. Not a ton of first-rounders or folks conventionally considered "blue-chip" prospects, but at times, Cam Roegner, Supak, Dylan File, Bettinger, Lazar, and some others have really flashed dominance. They're going to be in the high minors. Then there's Andrews, Rasmussen, QTC... lots of talent.

[xisxisxis]

jonescm128 said:

Joey Meyer Bombs, you mentioned we were in on Rendon...do you have a link for that?

 

 

I read that as "the talk around the lobby" at the winter meetings last week. Can't remember where I saw it now. One of the "insiders" on Twitter. It was definitely not a made up thing, though. Brewers were one of the most aggressive teams in talks last week.

I am 99% sure it was mentioned in an article on mlb.com

[Fear The Chorizo]

Donaldson is just going to get too large an offer for the Brewers to be competitive, IMO - I think the 3B starter is going to be acquired via trade, and it's going to be someone who makes less than what Donaldson will get and have a very good chance at outproducing him. And, it won't require moving a guy like Hader to acquire them so it won't decimate the MLB pitching staff.

[JosephC]

Over the last three years Smoak has gone from a 3.55 bWAR/fWAR to a 2.0 bWAR/fWAR to a 0.4 bWAR/fWAR last year. Wrong direction.

[Eye Black]

With each of the recent moves the overall roster construction seems less appealing to me. I have been holding out hope that an above average bat was going to be added to one of the corner infield spots. This move makes that appear less likely to occur at 1B now, so it's seemingly now down to what else they do at 3B.

 

Smoak is projected for a .342 wOBA. He had a .371 wOBA in 637 PA two years ago. His numbers will go up because we have the luxury of soft platooning him with Braun.

 

Not sure what you consider an above average bat?

 

I think Stearns's roster construction is brilliant. All we need now is to trade Arcia and find a quality 3B (in a dream would Donaldson) for in all honest the deepest positional roster in recent memory.

Yeah, let me walk my comment back a little as I think I overstated it. I get that they are improving in the margins, and that isn't a bad thing. I don't necessarily think the the current path of the roster construction is poor, but it now seems somewhat contingent on adding a quality every day third baseman. In my opinion, this article's findings ring more true than ever, Where Would The Top MLB Free Agents Make The Biggest Difference?. The lineup with one more hitter that they can confidently insert into the #3 spot in the order would change the complexion of the rest of these moves for me.