Justin Smoak to the Brewers

[tomwopat]

While I'd prefer a big FA signing or blockbuster trade (if anything, for the entertainment value during the offseason), and even if the moves seem a bit ticky-tacky on the surface, I believe they're a net positive looking through the lens of production per dollar.

 

Given the current state of the payroll, it seems plausible there could be more moves to come, or we are done barring any major changes or opportunities. Take that as "remaining flexible for mid-season upgrades" or "keeping the payroll down since we overspent last year", the reality is probably somewhere in the middle.

 

I consider the club options as just a way to slightly spread the cost of the contract over two years, more of a cash flow (or luxury tax ) tactic than anything.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Brewers may just be "in" on Donaldson ...

[Fear The Chorizo]

This is an upgrade at 1B over Thames but I think at least part of that upgrade is offset by the fact Smoak can't fill in at OF.

 

But, with all of our current OF depth (Yeli, Cain, Garcia, Braun, Gamel), I don't think we would have had the need to have our 1B filling any innings in the OF this year.

 

It is still a loss of flexibility for in game moves, especially once a few guys hit the DL.

 

While true, having guys like Healy and Petersen in AAA retains that flexibility if/when they need to replace guys going on the DL.

[jjgott]

 

And a better glove at 1st

 

Are there any stats to back this up?

 

Smoak last 4 seasons DRS on Baseball Reference -3 (19), -3 (18), 1 (17), -5 (16)

 

Thames last 3 seasons DRS at 1B on Baseball Reference: 2 (19), -2 (18), -5 (17)

 

If anything, Thames has been improving at his 1B defense while Smoak has been consistently below average.

[adambr2]

I'm guessing the thing with Thames was that he was just kind of limited in where he could play and who he could bat against. If the Brewers were an AL team he's your all-time DH against righties. But he has to play the field and he's not that great in the OF or at 1st and he can't hit lefties. Stearns seems to cherish flexibility more than anything.

 

Smoak isn't exactly flexible either. It seems pretty clear that they thought they could get the same if not better production for less than the $7.5 million option Thames was due. And on paper, today that was proven true.

 

I'd also like to point out that when you have a team option attached for a second year, like with Sogard and Smoak, it's a greater value for the team than the salary indicates. I'm guessing we frequently offer a little bit more in base salary to get that option year for as much as we see it. If for instance Smoak repeats his 2017 season that option becomes extremely valuable.

 

I'm not really sure what to think of Smoak. He was never a very good player before he was 30. But some guys do just come on late.

[3and2Fastball]

I like the signing. This team will have a lot of depth...

 

Anyone who thinks Stearns is done hasn’t been paying attention the last few years. I expect at least one big splash either through trade or free agency for a 3B or TOR... then suddenly all the pundits who have been ripping on the Brewers will start proclaiming them NL Central favorites...

[Bombers]

Looking at their HR rate / Strikeout rate / Walk rate from 2019

Smoak 4.4 % HR, 21% K, 16% BB

Thames 5.5% HR, 31% K, 11% BB

[KeithStone53151]

 

$25m less payroll, 0 change in WAR, much more upside with younger players

[SoCalBrewfan]

Derek VanRiper, writer for the Athletic, on Twitter...

 

Including Smoak, my back of the napkin math with 2019 fWAR vs. 2020 projected fWAR (through Steamer) has the Brewers at 0.0 change from last season.

 

In terms of payroll, they are ~$25M *below* their 2019 commitments (using MLBTR arb estimates).

 

They're probably not done.

 

I want to believe. There were reports that the Brewers were players on Rendon and are in on Donaldson. I don't know what to think of that, but all this would make tons of sense if they were clearing the decks for one medium to big contract. A Seattle deal for Seager seems so sensible at this point...

 

I liked Thames the person, seemed like a truly great guy, but this seems like a really solid signing.

[wibadgers23]

$25 million is about what it will take to get Donaldson. Let’s get it done!

[True Blue Brew Crew]

 

 

Defense:

2017-2019 Thames 1855 innings at 1B = -5 DRS

2018-2019 Smoak 1899 innings at 1B = -6 DRS

 

UZR and Range both trending down for Smoak... yeah clearly *better*... Smoak WAS a very good defender at 1B, Justin Smoak circa 2020 is not.

 

And for offense... Check out the trendlines. Thames has been a very consistent 2 fWAR/500PA player the last 3 years for the Brewers. If you follow Smoak's trendline he'll make 2018 Sogard look better. Sure, it's unlikely that Smoak will fall off that cliff, but once again Brewer goggles distort any facts into the rosey brewer view that he will absolutely bounceback and produce like previous years... And of course if we ignore all the data, Grandal isn't that good and neither was Davies or Anderson or Moustakis or _______ (former Brewer) compared to the ________ we just picked up. Because WAR and other stats just fail the Brewer fan eye test...

 

Smoak wasn't hitting in Miller Park like Thames had the pleasure of, yet still outperformed him the past 3 years.

 

Last three years:

 

Thames .241/.343/.504 ,72 HRs, 118 OPS+

 

Smoak .243/.350/.470, 85 HRs, 119 OPS+

 

 

Defensively, over the past 3 seasons...

 

Thames: 12 errors on 1,781 chances at 1B

 

Smoak: 7 errors on 3,120 chances at 1B

 

AND Smoak saved the Brewers $2.5 million as opposed to picking up Thames option.

[SRB]

Immediate disclaimer: I know the roster is not complete. There's no way this is their 40-man come opening day.

 

However!

 

Could someone smarter than me detail the lineup/depth chart as it currently stands and how much money is still available, just for the sake of having a visual only?

 

 

The 26-man roster is currently at around $90.3 million, using projected arb salaries for Narvaez, Suter, and Hader, projecting $3.1 million for Lindblom until we get the details of his contract (and minus his likely incentives), and minus whatever Healy got.

 

If you want to also count the deferred money the organization is paying for former players, that brings the current payroll to around $98.7 million

 

I think a lot of estimates elsewhere are going of players "luxury tax" prorated salaries, rather than what they are actually making in 2020

[KeithStone53151]

I'm glossing over the defensive stats of both Thames and Smoak, I'm not sure it's fair to say Smoak is a better defender than Thames. Looks like Thames has a pretty significant range advantage, while Smoak is a bit more consistent and less error-prone. Also Thames overall numbers have been trending up the last few years, while Smoak's have been trending down.

[brewers888]

Just my opinion of course and we will have to see how this all plays out but as of now I think the Brewers are a considerably worse team now then when the 2019 season ended. I think the catcher downgrade is huge with the Narvaez defense a huge detriment. I think we downgraded at first base as well as I would completely rather have Thames than Smoak.

 

As of now third base is a huge downgrade and I prefer the 2019 pitching staff as I would rather have Chase Anderson and Davies instead of Brett Anderson and Lauer. The upgrade at shortstop is big though I really question how Urias will handle the position defensively.

 

I get why most of you just trust Stearns so much that they go along with his every move but other than the Urias trade I haven't liked one move besides the possible upside with Lindblom who came cheap. Still plenty of offseason left but I am not very happy with the changes.

[homer]

Guys let's try and be civil. It's ok if someone likes or doesn't like this deal. Really, it's ok.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'm glossing over the defensive stats of both Thames and Smoak, I'm not sure it's fair to say Smoak is a better defender than Thames. Looks like Thames has a pretty significant range advantage, while Smoak is a bit more consistent and less error-prone. Also Thames overall numbers have been trending up the last few years, while Smoak's have been trending down.

 

Number of chances. If Thames had played 1B nearly as much as Smoak had, the gulf would be much wider. Adding range into the equation makes the difference between the two negligible at best. Smoak now gets to hit in MP though which should boost his already better than Thames numbers. And he costs less.

 

This isn't a big upgrade, but on paper it's definitely not a downgrade, and they saved money. It was a smart move no matter which way the numbers are broken down.

[pacopete4]

Brew crew 92, wherever he is, is gonna be stoked.

I almost forgot how much he loved this guy. I kinda wish a certain poster didn't get a week ban. These last couple of signings have much less drama behind them.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just my opinion of course and we will have to see how this all plays out but as of now I think the Brewers are a considerably worse team now then when the 2019 season ended. I think the catcher downgrade is huge with the Narvaez defense a huge detriment. I think we downgraded at first base as well as I would completely rather have Thames than Smoak.

 

As of now third base is a huge downgrade and I prefer the 2019 pitching staff as I would rather have Chase Anderson and Davies instead of Brett Anderson and Lauer. The upgrade at shortstop is big though I really question how Urias will handle the position defensively.

 

I get why most of you just trust Stearns so much that they go along with his every move but other than the Urias trade I haven't liked one move besides the possible upside with Lindblom who came cheap. Still plenty of offseason left but I am not very happy with the changes.

 

I think it's fair to have reservations. Lots of question marks for sure. There are certainly plenty of factors to point to that say the team will be good this year, though. I like Thames as well, but I think the move from Thames to Smoak is probably a wash. They are better on the bench. A big factor in how this offseason is graded is what they end up doing at 3B. That is TBD at this point.

[pacopete4]

Derek VanRiper, writer for the Athletic, on Twitter...

 

Including Smoak, my back of the napkin math with 2019 fWAR vs. 2020 projected fWAR (through Steamer) has the Brewers at 0.0 change from last season.

 

In terms of payroll, they are ~$25M *below* their 2019 commitments (using MLBTR arb estimates).

 

They're probably not done.

 

Very nice to see. Obviously it needs to play out on the field but I have really enjoyed this offseason. Understanding we cannot pay big money to every position really makes you appreciate what Stearns is attempting to do. I hope Stearns continues to shake the doubters of his methods. It's a great time to be a Brewers fan.

[jonescm128]

Immediate disclaimer: I know the roster is not complete. There's no way this is their 40-man come opening day.

 

However!

 

Could someone smarter than me detail the lineup/depth chart as it currently stands and how much money is still available, just for the sake of having a visual only?

 

I have us at $103m spent. Anybody's guess how much is "available". Based on last year, another $25m or so. But no guarantee they open with a payroll as big as last year. Lineup will be something like

 

Cain - CF

Yelich - RF

Hiura - 2b

Smoak - 1b

Garcia/Braun - LF

Narvaez - C

Urias - 3b

Arcia - SS

 

Braun will play some 1b as well. If we sign a 3b or Healy wins a job, Urias probably moves to SS. Sogard is available to fill in at 3b/2b/ss.

 

 

Gives us a ton of flexibility for mid season acquisitions and another ridiculous September run.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm glossing over the defensive stats of both Thames and Smoak, I'm not sure it's fair to say Smoak is a better defender than Thames. Looks like Thames has a pretty significant range advantage, while Smoak is a bit more consistent and less error-prone. Also Thames overall numbers have been trending up the last few years, while Smoak's have been trending down.

 

Number of chances. If Thames had played 1B nearly as much as Smoak had, the gulf would be much wider. Adding range into the equation makes the difference between the two negligible at best. Smoak now gets to hit in MP though which should boost his already better than Thames numbers. And he costs less.

 

This isn't a big upgrade, but on paper it's definitely not a downgrade, and they saved money. It was a smart move no matter which way the numbers are broken down.

 

I love the move. I was initially under the impression that Smoak was a much better defender, but it looks like Smoak regressed a bit(or maybe his quad injury hindered him last year) and Thames improved to make it more of a push. I think calling it negligible is fair. And I'm expecting Smoak to absolutely rake here. Especially if we try to somewhat platoon him with Braun, I know he's switch but he's a better LH hitter. Every aspect of Smoak's 2019 stats say he was wildly unlucky and should have been in the 850 OPS range with average luck.

[bill hAll Star]

I am still very much on the doubtful side that Healy "wins" the 3B job unless they are very confident in Sogard there with Healy as a backup plan.

 

I still think they have plans for a 3B that will make it so that it would be pretty damn unlikely that Healy wins the job.

[TURBO]

The thought of going into the season with our 3B options being Eric Freaking Sogard and Healy sickens me.

 

No way this is what we settle with, there has to be a BIG move on the horizon.

[jonescm128]

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Brewers may just be "in" on Donaldson ...

 

Any reason you think that?

 

I think someone is going to give him a 4/110 deal.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Brewers may just be "in" on Donaldson ...

 

Any reason you think that?

 

I think someone is going to give him a 4/110 deal.

 

They'll probably try.

 

The reasoning of them being "in" is that they are $25 million under last year's payroll and 3B is the only glaring need at this point. Some might say either starter or reliever is a need but Stearns seems to be somewhat set there.

 

In the end, you're right...too many other teams with deep pockets and I doubt Donaldson is a Brewer.