Justin Smoak to the Brewers

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Don’t lose sight of the fact that maybe Thames doesn’t want to come back. It’s not a given that he’s willing to come back to a place where they force him to take a pay cut.

I agree it's highly unlikely Thames was going to entertain a return at lower money. It was just a poor decision in the first place to let him go, but hey we can always make up the 1.5 WAR drop we are likely to see with Smoak from Sogard...

 

 

 

The Brewers saved $2.5 million and wound up with a player who has a better bat and glove than Thames.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I get that this offseason hasn’t been sexy, but these deals have all been solid value and small-market team-friendly.

 

Unless you actually thought the Brewers would sign a giant FA contract like they never have before, or that Opening Day rosters are set in December, not sure what’s not to like about this offseason to date.

[JohnBriggs12]

Will wait to see the numbers, but I'd rather they just kept Thames. Smoak hit .208 last year

 

He still walked 79 times and had an OBP of .342. His BABIP was ridiculously low in 2019. In 2018 he had an .867 OPS vs. RHP. I don't think they really were interested in bringing back Thames for whatever reason. Thames might not have been interested either.

[Lathund]

Not too dissimilar from Eric Thames, with the difference that Smoak doesn't need to be platooned. Numbers were down a bit last year, but that seems entirely BABIP driven. His walks were up, strikeouts down, average exit velocity up. To me it feels like a pretty safe bet that he'll have an above-average season at the plate in 2020 at least. I wouldn't say I'm either overly excited, or underwhelmed by this. I'd say I am appropriately whelmed. At first glance this, like the Sogard deal, feel like they could've been done for less. But these are one year commitments, with a team option in case in turns out well, the downside is very limited.

 

A flurry of moves in the last week or so. Would be interesting to know if there was a specific reason for that or it just happened that way.

[homer]

I'm guessing the thing with Thames was that he was just kind of limited in where he could play and who he could bat against. If the Brewers were an AL team he's your all-time DH against righties. But he has to play the field and he's not that great in the OF or at 1st and he can't hit lefties. Stearns seems to cherish flexibility more than anything.

[stoutdude04]

With each of the recent moves the overall roster construction seems less appealing to me. I have been holding out hope that an above average bat was going to be added to one of the corner infield spots. This move makes that appear less likely to occur at 1B now, so it's seemingly now down to what else they do at 3B.

 

This is where I am at as well. According to a report they were interested in EE, but he prefers the AL, so that would have been the above average bat for the corners.

 

It stinks, but perhaps the guys they had hoped to get were unavailable or signed bigger deals than they anticipated.

[SRB]

I think the trend with these moves is that Stearns is scooping up assets who are undervalued due to fluky 2019 seasons. He's trusting the scouting and analytic info he's getting. For example, based on whatever underlying metrics, Steamer is optimistic about Smoak (proj .342 wOBA) and Healy (proj .321 wOBA), and he's acquired both for very little cost.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'm guessing the thing with Thames was that he was just kind of limited in where he could play and who he could bat against. If the Brewers were an AL team he's your all-time DH against righties. But he has to play the field and he's not that great in the OF or at 1st and he can't hit lefties. Stearns seems to cherish flexibility more than anything.

 

Smoak isn't exactly flexible either. It seems pretty clear that they thought they could get the same if not better production for less than the $7.5 million option Thames was due. And on paper, today that was proven true.

[KeithStone53151]

Immediate disclaimer: I know the roster is not complete. There's no way this is their 40-man come opening day.

 

However!

 

Could someone smarter than me detail the lineup/depth chart as it currently stands and how much money is still available, just for the sake of having a visual only?

 

I have us at $103m spent. Anybody's guess how much is "available". Based on last year, another $25m or so. But no guarantee they open with a payroll as big as last year. Lineup will be something like

 

Cain - CF

Yelich - RF

Hiura - 2b

Smoak - 1b

Garcia/Braun - LF

Narvaez - C

Urias - 3b

Arcia - SS

 

Braun will play some 1b as well. If we sign a 3b or Healy wins a job, Urias probably moves to SS. Sogard is available to fill in at 3b/2b/ss.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Brew crew 92, wherever he is, is gonna be stoked.

[homer]

I'm guessing the thing with Thames was that he was just kind of limited in where he could play and who he could bat against. If the Brewers were an AL team he's your all-time DH against righties. But he has to play the field and he's not that great in the OF or at 1st and he can't hit lefties. Stearns seems to cherish flexibility more than anything.

 

Smoak isn't exactly flexible either. It seems pretty clear that they thought they could get the same if not better production for less than the $7.5 million option Thames was due. And on paper, today that was proven true.

 

He's a switch hitter at least.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Derek VanRiper, writer for the Athletic, on Twitter...

 

Including Smoak, my back of the napkin math with 2019 fWAR vs. 2020 projected fWAR (through Steamer) has the Brewers at 0.0 change from last season.

 

In terms of payroll, they are ~$25M *below* their 2019 commitments (using MLBTR arb estimates).

 

They're probably not done.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'm guessing the thing with Thames was that he was just kind of limited in where he could play and who he could bat against. If the Brewers were an AL team he's your all-time DH against righties. But he has to play the field and he's not that great in the OF or at 1st and he can't hit lefties. Stearns seems to cherish flexibility more than anything.

 

Smoak isn't exactly flexible either. It seems pretty clear that they thought they could get the same if not better production for less than the $7.5 million option Thames was due. And on paper, today that was proven true.

 

He's a switch hitter at least.

 

And a better glove at 1st

[Ennder]

This is an upgrade at 1B over Thames but I think at least part of that upgrade is offset by the fact Smoak can't fill in at OF.

[KeithStone53151]

I love this move. I've liked Smoak for a while. I think he would do well with a change of scenery, well in Miller Park, and hopefully he's been generally unlucky his entire career. With us being ahead of the curve on analytics, I wonder if we can unlock anything with Smoak.

[Outlander]

Thames obviously had the better year last year but really a toss up who will have the better year in 2020. A low cost option in 2021 if he has a productive year. Really starting to like the depth of this team. Just need to get the quality 3B, which I believe Stearns will be able to do.

[Fear The Chorizo]

A flurry of moves in the last week or so. Would be interesting to know if there was a specific reason for that or it just happened that way.

 

Stearns must have a holiday vacation trip lined up - gotta get that 40 man filled up before unplugging!

 

My thought was they had specific players in mind that were available at the market rate they can compete in and Stearns moved aggressively to get them in the fold before going after whatever substantial acquisition he may still have in mind for 3B or the pitching staff.

 

He's mentioned several times that their payroll may be in a place where they could take on a larger contract via trade for a premium player - IMO he may not be looking to sign a big name FA in a bloated market this offseason, but the Brewers could be trying to land a good player with a few years left on what is now a medium-sized contract (~$15M AAV) if the trade partner views it mainly as salary relief and isn't requiring a huge prospect package in return from Milwaukee.

[Madhawk23]

This is an upgrade at 1B over Thames but I think at least part of that upgrade is offset by the fact Smoak can't fill in at OF.

 

But, with all of our current OF depth (Yeli, Cain, Garcia, Braun, Gamel), I don't think we would have had the need to have our 1B filling any innings in the OF this year.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

This is an upgrade at 1B over Thames but I think at least part of that upgrade is offset by the fact Smoak can't fill in at OF.

 

Good thing they also added Avisail Garcia and still have Gamel.

[Jaylyn]

Don't get all starry eyed over the HRs, notice how he can drive it opposite field! Very Nice!

[Austin Tatious]

Does anyone know if he is a dead pull hitter or does he spray it around? When guys are consistently low in BABIP even with a hard contact rate, the culprit can be hitting it predictably right at a defender, e.g., being susceptible to defensive alignment such as via defensive shifts.

[Ennder]

This is an upgrade at 1B over Thames but I think at least part of that upgrade is offset by the fact Smoak can't fill in at OF.

 

But, with all of our current OF depth (Yeli, Cain, Garcia, Braun, Gamel), I don't think we would have had the need to have our 1B filling any innings in the OF this year.

 

It is still a loss of flexibility for in game moves, especially once a few guys hit the DL.

[tmwiese55]

This is an upgrade at 1B over Thames but I think at least part of that upgrade is offset by the fact Smoak can't fill in at OF.

 

Well, that should be very much less needed this year with Garcia. "Should" of course being the operative word but you're 5 deep on better OF options ahead of Thames/Smoak

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This is an upgrade at 1B over Thames but I think at least part of that upgrade is offset by the fact Smoak can't fill in at OF.

 

With the Garcia signing, and with Gamel, Taylor and Broxton in reserve, they should be in better shape out there depth-wise. Wouldn't surprise me to see them grab a veteran OF to stash at AAA as well.

[xisxisxis]

Don’t lose sight of the fact that maybe Thames doesn’t want to come back. It’s not a given that he’s willing to come back to a place where they force him to take a pay cut.

I agree it's highly unlikely Thames was going to entertain a return at lower money. It was just a poor decision in the first place to let him go, but hey we can always make up the 1.5 WAR drop we are likely to see with Smoak from Sogard...

 

 

 

The Brewers saved $2.5 million and wound up with a player who has a better bat and glove than Thames.

 

 

 

Defense:

2017-2019 Thames 1855 innings at 1B = -5 DRS

2018-2019 Smoak 1899 innings at 1B = -6 DRS

 

UZR and Range both trending down for Smoak... yeah clearly *better*... Smoak WAS a very good defender at 1B, Justin Smoak circa 2020 is not.

 

And for offense... Check out the trendlines. Thames has been a very consistent 2 fWAR/500PA player the last 3 years for the Brewers. If you follow Smoak's trendline he'll make 2018 Sogard look better. Sure, it's unlikely that Smoak will fall off that cliff, but once again Brewer goggles distort any facts into the rosey brewer view that he will absolutely bounceback and produce like previous years... And of course if we ignore all the data, Grandal isn't that good and neither was Davies or Anderson or Moustakis or _______ (former Brewer) compared to the ________ we just picked up. Because WAR and other stats just fail the Brewer fan eye test...