Sogard to Brewers - 1 year, $4.5m w Club Option

[TJseven7]

 

This team needs a Villar. Hopefully Urias will be that.

 

The Brewers do not need anyone who is a modest offensive producer who'll top 150Ks with regular playing time.

[pacopete4]

 

This team needs a Villar. Hopefully Urias will be that.

 

The Brewers do not need anyone who is a modest offensive producer who'll top 150Ks with regular playing time.

 

Modest? The Brewers could’ve desperately used the production Villar had last season and I’m not even sure that’s debatable. Between Shaw and Arcia, there just wasn’t enough.

[MNBrew]

Escobar was a really mediocre career SS and was an essential piece to acquiring Zach Greinke. Hard to complain about that one.

Agreed, but people will still claim trading for Greinke & Marcum "gutted the farm" when in reality/hindsight it didn't:

 

Escobar = (descriptor above)

Jeffress = never very good elsewhere but mostly really good in MIL, last year's decline being more of the outlier over the whole of his Brewers career

Cain = upper-end CF but wasn't displacing Cameron & still took a couple years post-trade to earn regular playing time & become that upper-end MLB player... and, of course, we still got him back for only money later

Odorizzi = above-average but not close to elite career SP

Brett Lawrie = loads of promise that was never fully realized in spite of some strong initial flashes in Toronto, then couldn't stay healthy and couldn't earn a minor-league spot with MIL last year

 

... never mind that 3-4 of those 5 were already seeing MLB playing time at the time of those trades. Didn't gut the farm at all -- if anything, just scooped the cream off the top and revealed the glaring lack of blue-chip prospects behind them.

 

Anyway, BACK ON TOPIC....

 

I was more than a little surprised to see this Sogard signing today (or at all). I don't hate it, might grow to love it, and mainly just don't know totally what to think based on what I presume is still an incomplete picture of the 2020 Brewers infield. Admittedly, memory of his 2018 isn't gone from my mind and justifies at least something of an initial sideways glance at this move.

 

I love what Sogard did last year and his general hitting profile IF he can continue to keep the BA respectable. Even if he's only in the Hernan role, it's not a bad move b/c he'll K much less and get on base appreciably better (most likely).

 

I think his increased power last year is largely immaterial. Sogard's not here for any considerable pop in his bat. I think it's because of the low-ish K rate, decent bat, and decent glove that cumulatively would seem to bode well for the way he'd contribute to the Brewers.

 

I'm not too worried if Sogard ends up getting some decent playing time at 3B. I'm inclined to be worried, though, if Ryon Healy is. Sogard was signed to play a clear role, whereas I think Healy was more of a wild card/depth move that might have a chance to pay a few dividends in MIL if he's called upon.

 

While I agree that trading Arcia seems possible -- which could be interesting -- I think it's also worth noting that this Ronny Rodriguez guy is no sure thing to stick (remember he's a waiver claim, whereas all the other IF acquired this winter are FA signings or trade "gets"). He's a depth piece not unlike some of the other guys -- mainly pitchers -- Stearns has picked up the past couple winters and eventually outrighted or DFA'd shortly thereafter in hopes of getting them safely down to the AAA roster (Blake Parker, anyone?). This Mathias fella we got from Cleveland also seems to be a depth piece but for whatever reason I think he's got a better chance to stick. . . . And those two, along with Healy, are hopefully roster-fringe players at best.

 

I'm not sure a big move is coming, but it still seems pretty clear (corroborated by a Haudricourt tweet:

) that Stearns still plans some roster maneuvering ahead given that there's currently only one open 40-man spot and several roster needs could stand more/better addressing.

[Oxy]

Mike Cameron? I think we had Diego Edmonds' expiring contract and Carlos Gomez at the time we got Greinke. And Carlos still wasn't good enough to play in front of T Plush the next year.

[TJseven7]

 

This team needs a Villar. Hopefully Urias will be that.

 

The Brewers do not need anyone who is a modest offensive producer who'll top 150Ks with regular playing time.

 

Modest? The Brewers could’ve desperately used the production Villar had last season and I’m not even sure that’s debatable. Between Shaw and Arcia, there just wasn’t enough.

 

Villar is a modest offensive producer. Comparing him to Shaw and Arcia doesn't make him better. Pointing at 1 of his 2 very good years in the last 4 doesn't change the body of his work to above modest.

[Matty V]

 

This team needs a Villar. Hopefully Urias will be that.

 

The Brewers do not need anyone who is a modest offensive producer who'll top 150Ks with regular playing time.

 

 

According to MrAllen, Villar is worth $36 million a year.

[adambr2]

I can't wrap my head around the 1 WAR = 9M logic anymore. It just seems inapplicable in too many instances to make sense to me.

[Ennder]

Villar is highly unlikely to repeat his value from last season. For one thing he played in 162 games and that is just really rare to repeat. Secondly a ton of his value came from baserunning and I think that is generally pretty erratic year to year. I would doubt he comes close to repeating that value again. Villar is probably a 2 win player, which makes him an average major league player. That has a ton of value mind you.

[Eye Black]

I can't wrap my head around the 1 WAR = 9M logic anymore. It just seems inapplicable in too many instances to make sense to me.

It’s not $8-$9 million per WAR, and it’s not linear anymore. Eno Sarris just did a pretty good article earlier this month analyzing that for The Athletic, What all those non-tenders can tell us about how players are being valued

 

The spoiler is 1 WAR is currently valued much closer to $5 million, and no longer applies to just free agency (i.e. the reason for a significant increase in players being non-tendered). They also showed that teams are indeed now willing to pay more “per WAR” for a player expected to be >3.0 WAR than a 1 or 2 WAR player.

 

Here is some of the article text...

 

This year, a whopping 40 players were non-tendered at the deadline, nearly equal to the 46 who were non-tendered in the two previous years combined. Fan favorites like Kevin Pillar, everyday players due less than $5 million like Domingo Santana, and even above-average players like César Hernández all found themselves without a contract.

 

Using the accepted relationship between production and salary, many of those players should have been retained. By looking at free-agent contracts and projected value, a win above replacement is supposed to cost around $8 million in today’s market. Hernández, for example, is projected to be a league-average player, worth around $16 million, and his arbitration-awarded salary was projected to be around $12 million. And yet … he’s a free agent.

 

Something seems off on the accepted framework.

 

One suggestion has been that the relationship between what a team is willing to pay for a player and that player’s value is not linear. In other words, teams won’t pay the same per win for an average player as they would for a five-win player. That makes some sense: There are only 26 roster slots, and there are way fewer five-win players than two-win players. Theoretically, at least, teams would want to jam as many five-win guys on their roster before picking in the larger bin of average players.

 

There are nearly half as many five-win players as two-win players, so why wouldn’t a team pay more for the five-win player even when you look at per win dollars? Sure — but that non-linear effect has not traditionally been seen in the market.

 

Maybe the market is changing, though. Here’s how the dollars per win broke down for position players by three buckets last season.

 

[pre]Proj WAR/YR $/WAR

0.5-1.9 4.69

2-2.9 4.97

3.0+ 5.24[/pre]

 

Teams paid a little more per win for players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado than they did for Asdrúbal Cabrera and Jonathan Lucroy. But not a lot more. You’d round those to $5 million per win.

 

Wait, that’s an interesting number. It’s way less than $8 million per win. Mostly, that’s because relievers aren’t projected for large WARs and yet get decent contracts, which inflates the overall cost per win. Maybe that means WAR is broken for relievers, or maybe it just means that teams are willing to pay more on shorter deals for that reliever who might be the final piece. Either way, take relievers out, and dollars-to-WAR figure plummets.

 

There is plenty more to the article to support their findings, but this Jonathan Judge tweet included in the story sort of sums it up...

 

Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw): I think the larger problem is that the popular concept that $/WARP should be based on free agent salaries never made sense. Owners now see it as based on ALL salaries, a capped amount, and as Joe notes, that amount is much closer to $5M/WARP. Only the best arb guys make sense.

[pacopete4]

 

Modest? The Brewers could’ve desperately used the production Villar had last season and I’m not even sure that’s debatable. Between Shaw and Arcia, there just wasn’t enough.

 

Villar is a modest offensive producer. Comparing him to Shaw and Arcia doesn't make him better. Pointing at 1 of his 2 very good years in the last 4 doesn't change the body of his work to above modest.

 

You're twisting and turning to make a point that was never there. This team could've desperately needed Villar in their lineup last season and it's not even debatable. The runs generated just by having a competent leadoff hitter would've played large in their offensive struggles. It was a huge whiff by our FO and coaching staff to move him when they did and for who they did. They've been chasing their tales at certain positions for awhile. But yes, point to your ONE stat as a reason he wouldn't be valuable to you.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Modest? The Brewers could’ve desperately used the production Villar had last season and I’m not even sure that’s debatable. Between Shaw and Arcia, there just wasn’t enough.

 

Villar is a modest offensive producer. Comparing him to Shaw and Arcia doesn't make him better. Pointing at 1 of his 2 very good years in the last 4 doesn't change the body of his work to above modest.

 

You're twisting and turning to make a point that was never there. This team could've desperately needed Villar in their lineup last season and it's not even debatable. The runs generated just by having a competent leadoff hitter would've played large in their offensive struggles. It was a huge whiff by our FO and coaching staff to move him when they did and for who they did. They've been chasing their tales at certain positions for awhile. But yes, point to your ONE stat as a reason he wouldn't be valuable to you.

 

The people who don't believe that Jonathan Villar would have been an asset on this team last year, or that he would be this year, simply don't like Jonathan Villar. It's that simple. Granted, saying that he would of put up a similar line with the Brewers might be a bit of a stretch, but Villar's offense in the middle infield may just have been what was needed to put the team over the top last year. I think he was fed up with the sporadic playing time he was getting as a Brewer, so the trade was justified. That doesn't change the fact that Villar is a very good MLB ballplayer.

[adambr2]

2 years ago, we signed Eric Sogard for 2.3 million dollars. He performed so poorly that we literally decided to pay him to just stay home rather than keep trotting him out on the field. 15 months later, we decided to hire him back at double the salary we were paying him before.

 

I'm not saying bad move, we'll see what happens, I just think it's a hilarious sequence of events when you look at it that way.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 years ago, we signed Eric Sogard for 2.3 million dollars. He performed so poorly that we literally decided to pay him to just stay home rather than keep trotting him out on the field. 15 months later, we decided to hire him back at double the salary we were paying him before.

 

I'm not saying bad move, we'll see what happens, I just think it's a hilarious sequence of events when you look at it that way.

 

The Brewers have had the opportunity to pick up many players over the years that have pasts with the team. Other than a few rare exceptions (Gio, Broxton I guess this year) Stearns rarely goes that route. There must have been something that Sogard has done, other than his stats last year, that convinced the Brewers that not only was he a good choice to bring back, but at double the salary that he was making when he epically flamed out in 2018. I'm guessing he took steps to remake his swing, which led to the power increase last year. Apparently the Brewers believe that is sustainable.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 years ago, we signed Eric Sogard for 2.3 million dollars. He performed so poorly that we literally decided to pay him to just stay home rather than keep trotting him out on the field. 15 months later, we decided to hire him back at double the salary we were paying him before.

 

I'm not saying bad move, we'll see what happens, I just think it's a hilarious sequence of events when you look at it that way.

 

The Brewers have had the opportunity to pick up many players over the years that have pasts with the team. Other than a few rare exceptions (Gio, Broxton I guess this year) Stearns rarely goes that route. There must have been something that Sogard has done, other than his stats last year, that convinced the Brewers that not only was he a good choice to bring back, but at double the salary that he was making when he epically flamed out in 2018. I'm guessing he took steps to remake his swing, which led to the power increase last year. Apparently the Brewers believe that is sustainable.

 

He did alter his swing to increase his launch angle - that coupled with juiced/HR-happy baseballs both really helped him last season. All the while he remained a steady to above average defensive player capable of playing several positions, most noteably 2B.

 

I get the move and actually don't have a problem with paying $4.5 M for a reliable utility IF with a LH bat that will at worst give you a pretty good AB most plate appearances. What I'm struggling with is his nightmarish 2018 with the Brewers and the fact I was among the most vocal proponents of jettisoning him weeks before he was finally released and kicked down to AAA. Hoping he's at least somewhere in the middle between his terrible 2018 and really solid 2019, which would make the signing just fine for thie 2020 roster.

[Outlander]

2 years ago, we signed Eric Sogard for 2.3 million dollars. He performed so poorly that we literally decided to pay him to just stay home rather than keep trotting him out on the field. 15 months later, we decided to hire him back at double the salary we were paying him before.

 

I'm not saying bad move, we'll see what happens, I just think it's a hilarious sequence of events when you look at it that way.

That is pretty funny when you look at it that way. I give a lot of credit to Sogard though, it could had been the end of his career but he made changes to improve himself and now is guaranteed millions more because of it.

[TURBO]

2 years ago, we signed Eric Sogard for 2.3 million dollars. He performed so poorly that we literally decided to pay him to just stay home rather than keep trotting him out on the field. 15 months later, we decided to hire him back at double the salary we were paying him before.

 

I'm not saying bad move, we'll see what happens, I just think it's a hilarious sequence of events when you look at it that way.

 

This, completely this.

 

Some seem to forget just how bad he was for us outside of his first hot few weeks.

 

We waived him, cut him loose, severed ties and it was more of a plus for the team to have him gone than continue to roster him.

 

There was a stretch when CC was playing him, and playing him, and playing him to the point of craziness. He was out and out awful.

 

I have nothing against Eric Sogard, but we have been down this road, and it ended terribly. Shocking that we decided to take it again.

[brewerfan82]

 

This team needs a Villar. Hopefully Urias will be that.

 

The Brewers do not need anyone who is a modest offensive producer who'll top 150Ks with regular playing time.

 

 

According to MrAllen, Villar is worth $36 million a year.

Touché!

[brewerfan82]

The spoiler is 1 WAR is currently valued much closer to $5 million, and no longer applies to just free agency (i.e. the reason for a significant increase in players being non-tendered). They also showed that teams are indeed now willing to pay more “per WAR” for a player expected to be >3.0 WAR than a 1 or 2 WAR player.

 

...

 

[pre]Proj WAR/YR $/WAR

0.5-1.9 4.69

2-2.9 4.97

3.0+ 5.24[/pre]

 

Good read! This does definitely seem a bit more reasonable and lines up closer with the past couple acquisitions.

[brewmann04]

4.5 means to mean the expect him to play a lot.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4.5 means to mean the expect him to play a lot.

 

No doubt. I fully expect Sogard to be a regular defensive replacement for Hiura late in games, coming in on double switches after pinch hitting. He is also solid insurance for Urias and whoever they sign to take most of the starts at 3B. This tells me that they were not satisfied with their infield depth last season, and signing guys like Sogard and Healy is a step toward correcting that.

 

If the plan, however, is for Sogard to start regularly at 3B, I am not a fan. But I think they can, and will, do better there.

[SeaBass]

2 years ago, we signed Eric Sogard for 2.3 million dollars. He performed so poorly that we literally decided to pay him to just stay home rather than keep trotting him out on the field. 15 months later, we decided to hire him back at double the salary we were paying him before.

 

I'm not saying bad move, we'll see what happens, I just think it's a hilarious sequence of events when you look at it that way.

 

The Brewers have had the opportunity to pick up many players over the years that have pasts with the team. Other than a few rare exceptions (Gio, Broxton I guess this year) Stearns rarely goes that route. There must have been something that Sogard has done, other than his stats last year, that convinced the Brewers that not only was he a good choice to bring back, but at double the salary that he was making when he epically flamed out in 2018. I'm guessing he took steps to remake his swing, which led to the power increase last year. Apparently the Brewers believe that is sustainable.

 

He did alter his swing to increase his launch angle - that coupled with juiced/HR-happy baseballs both really helped him last season. All the while he remained a steady to above average defensive player capable of playing several positions, most noteably 2B.

 

I get the move and actually don't have a problem with paying $4.5 M for a reliable utility IF with a LH bat that will at worst give you a pretty good AB most plate appearances. What I'm struggling with is his nightmarish 2018 with the Brewers and the fact I was among the most vocal proponents of jettisoning him weeks before he was finally released and kicked down to AAA. Hoping he's at least somewhere in the middle between his terrible 2018 and really solid 2019, which would make the signing just fine for thie 2020 roster.

This is where I am too. We can look at his 2019 and wonder if it was a fluke or predict that it's not repeatable (due to previous bias), but he still put up those stats. Based on that performance more than one GM was likely going to give the guy a shot at around the salary he ended up signing for. Perhaps he was slightly overpaid, I would think $3 million would be about right, but if he had 2 or more suitors the extra $1.5 million isn't going to have a restrictive impact on how the remainder of the roster is filled.

[Bulldogboy]

It is rare indeed that a guy is so bad that you banish him from the roster only to bring him back a year later and pay him more. He may have had a good year but it is hard to be excited when that tape of 2018 flashes in my head. The dude was one of the worst players in baseball in 2018. I could have found better ways to spend that 5 million.

[JosephC]

Sogard loves the juiced ball:

 

2010-2018 = 1743 plate appearances, 11 HR

2019 = 442 plate appearances, 13 HR

[tmwiese55]

So, if Max Muncy was available Oakland should just automatically not want him because they let him go in the past?

[bill hAll Star]

I was the biggest Sogard hater in 2017. I saw some of the improvements in hard hit % and launch angle but thought it was all luck. I was obviously cheering for the team but was also expecting some of the dropoff he had later in the 2017 season.

 

All of that said, I personally don't care what his 2018 was like.

 

If Travis Shaw hit 30 HR with a .350 OBP next year after a one year contract for someone and then wanted to come back to the Brewers, I'd take him. I don't really see why there is such a stigma around these guys. Who cares?

 

Other than the top 100 or so players in the game who perennially are very good, the next 200-300 guys are all talented enough that they can fluctuate between good and not very good based on team, health, mechanical adjustments, etc. This is the Chase Anderson, Davies, etc. tier of player.

 

If they think Sogard will succeed and can get him to do so, by all means, pay market value for him.