Are Brewers eyeing 2021-2022 window?

[A Swing and A Drive]

Part of this offseason so far makes me believe that the Brewers Front Office might be "playing" for 2021 and 2022.

 

Not saying that they are punting 2020, but they have decided to do a pretty major roster overhaul to a team that made the playoffs for two straight seasons.

 

Some of their moves so far seem to be preparing for the future (especially 2021-22 window)

 

If this is the case I actually think it's a borderline brilliant strategy.

 

Let's explore the moves...

 

1. Acquiring Luis Urias for future starting SS, yet tendered Arcia a contract for 2020. This leads me to believe the Brewers are comfortable with Urias spending some time in the minors in 2020 if need be. Their real interest in DiDi Gregorious on a one year deal, also speaks to this.

2. Acquiring Omar Narvaez for future starting C. He's 27 (baseball hitters prime) and controlled for 3 more seasons. Fits the window perfectly.

3. Signing Avasail Garcia for future starting LF. Braun's in the last year of his contract and the plan seems to move him to 1B for 2020 (some OF abs as well). Garcia (age 28) signs a 2 year deal with a club option. Once again, fits the 2021-22 window, and the Brewers won't go into next offseason with a need to fill Braun's old starting spot.

4. Signing Josh Lindblom for future mid-rotation. Lindblom is a complete wild card, coming back from Korea for the 2nd time in his career. Other prominent teams were interested and the Brewers possibly beat them out by including a 3rd year in their offer for $9.75M. If the Brewers believe in his new found splitter and have him throw it even more, they probably think they have something here. If so, they have him for 3 seasons. Again, fits the window. If he completely fails, they can easily eat that contract or move him to bullpen role.

5. Signing Ryon Healy for potential future starting 1B. Again, Healy is just 27 (baseball hitters prime) and returning from injury. Has 3 more years of arby control. Let him contend for playing time at 1B or even 3B going into 2020. If he breaks out and regains his previous form when he was with Oakland, you've got a cheap staring 1B (or 3B) for 2021 and 2022. Again, fits the window. If not, you simply cut bait. No risk/possible reward move.

Perhaps if Braun can handle 1B duties, he could also come back on a short term deal.

6. Signing Brett Anderson...I'm not gonna lie, this makes no sense any way you slice it. lol My only guess is maybe they have him re-defined as a bullpen arm and trade him for something at the deadline.

 

So in my mind, with the huge roster turnover this offseason, it leads me to believe that the Brewers Front Office took a look at the roster and decided to, not rebuild, but "reload" in 2020, with a true eye on contending in 2021-2022.

 

Perhaps part of the strategy is to drop the payroll a bit this year (say $20M+ or so), with the intention of using that saved $20M from 2020 towards the 2021 Free Agent class.

 

The Brewers control Josh Hader through this entire window as well, however, they might be smart or open minded about moving him a peak value for the best haul of talent that can help by next year as well. This seems much smarter than trading him just to fill holes in the 2020 lineup/roster.

 

And as every Brewer fan knows, the Brewers control Christian Yelich through the 2022 season.

 

This all makes perfect sense.

[homer]

Haha, I responded to your other post and thought you deleted it.

 

I was thinking about this last night. Given the $$ spent this year it's possible next year there will be some bargains in FA. Stearns zigs when others zag sort of a thing. Of course it's still very early this off season so I'd be willing to be he'd do a few one year deals for the right price like last year.

 

But if Ryon Healy is a starting first baseman I won't be happy.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Truth be told, the Brewers have lost a ton of MLB talent this offseason. In fact, I'd say more than any other team (Grandal, Moose, Pomeranz, Lyles, etc).

 

I think the Front Office foresaw this happening and realized that the Brewers may take a slight step back on the field in 2020 because of it. As a small market team, it's especially important not to make panic FA signing to compensate for this. Instead, Stearns is playing the long game and I think the organization will benefit from it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Truth be told, the Brewers have lost a ton of MLB talent this offseason. In fact, I'd say more than any other team (Grandal, Moose, Pomeranz, Lyles, etc).

 

I think the Front Office foresaw this happening and realized that the Brewers may take a slight step back on the field in 2020 because of it. As a small market team, it's especially important not to make panic FA signing to compensate for this. Instead, Stearns is playing the long game and I think the organization will benefit from it.

 

Hence the "dumpster diving", right?

[JosephC]

No. Attanasio has cut the payroll and Stearns is trying to stockpile lower cost players and win through quantity rather than quality.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Correct. Teams not looking to contend are more than comfortable "dumpster diving" for the likes of Brett Anderson.

 

Diving for guys like Josh Lindblom and Ryon Healy make more sense, because if you come out of the dumpster with a Gem, you get to keep your Gem for a few more years.

[jerichoholicninja]

So far Stearns has done the same thing he's done every offseason apart from the year he signed Cain and traded for Yelich. I don't know why people keep trying to read so much into it.

[bill hAll Star]

So far Stearns has done the same thing he's done every offseason apart from the year he signed Cain and traded for Yelich. I don't know why people keep trying to read so much into it.

 

Basically with you on this.

 

I think he did need to reshape things slightly by getting some high-ceiling guys with more control like Narvaez or Urias but I don't really think it jives with the OP (which I've seen from a lot of fans).

 

Put Seager and Thames on this roster to finish the offseason. Compare this roster to the one on opening day 2018. Will the same magic happen?

 

I don't know...but it seems to be basically the same crowd that said, "what, Mike Moustakas?!?!? We already have a 3rd baseman!" Or "Why acquire Cain when we already have Santana?" is also on the, "I don't see upside in the 2020 roster" bandwagon. Just sit back and trust the process, which will probably have one down season eventually but is still a good process.

[liveforoctober]

Honestly, I don't think Stearns believes in the concept of 'contending' and 'not contending' the same way we do. I think he believes in acquiring assets and value. Sometimes that looks like a kid with upside coming off an injury with 4 years of control and sometimes that looks like a vet for 1 year who you can predict will produce X stats and you can sign him for X dollars and once in a great while that looks like a veteran on a 4 year deal with a considerable amount of money considered. Roster dictates moves somewhat .. obviously we need a body to be standing next to 3rd base once the season starts so an acquisition will likely happen... BUT ... if the remaining options on the trade and FA market don't fit the value model he and his staff have created ... Urias will likely be our opening day 3B.

 

I just think the puzzle we are trying to build as fans and the puzzle David Stearns is trying to build are two completely different puzzles.

[brewmann04]

so over the long Haul not sure if this team will ever see a WS ring

[A Swing and A Drive]

So as GM, Stearns is just acquiring cheap, young talent, regardless of position?

 

If we just need a warm body next to 3B on Opening Day then so be it?

 

So his offseason strategy is the same as when I take my kids to the dollar store? We go there needing 3 things, only find 1 or 2 of them, but leave with 10 things we don't really need but were some pretty nice values?

[bill hAll Star]

So as GM, Stearns is just acquiring cheap, young talent, regardless of position?

 

If we just need a warm body next to 3B on Opening Day then so be it?

 

The thing is, you can reverse engineer what Stearns does. I don't think he's going to throw "a warm body" or some cheap, undervalued asset out there at the starting positions.

 

Healy is a nice buy-low guy but is basically just AAA replacement-level help. We don't have someone like that at 3B or 1B in the minors that can be replacement level.

 

The payroll is a shade over $90 million. We need a good, lefty bat at 1B. We need a good 3B. There is room in the payroll that Attanasio usually spends for when competitive. The Garcia signing suggests that we're going to at least feign contention.

 

It's easy to see how this offseason finishes. Maybe there is a drastic Hader trade that shakes things up even more but the logical conclusion is taking a risk on someone like Kyle Seager and then picking up Thames.

[liveforoctober]

So as GM, Stearns is just acquiring cheap, young talent, regardless of position?

 

If we just need a warm body next to 3B on Opening Day then so be it?

 

So his offseason strategy is like when I take my kids to the dollar store? We go there needing 3 things, only find 1 or 2 of them, but leave with 10 things we don't really need but were some pretty nice values?

 

I'm assuming you are responding to me. I'll do my best to answer all 3 of your questions.

 

First answer, kind of. I think his job is to continually build a 26 man, 40 man, and minor league system that is flexible and has current and future upside. "Regardless of position" ... well, yes. If other GM's are not out there trying to also find additional pitching or minor league depth because they have a 2B need on the big league club ... they are either working in one of the big 5 markets or they are not doing their job correctly.

 

Second, I appreciate your passion but please remember it is not yet Christmas. I would wager we will have a different name starting at 3rd for us than what we currently have penciled in... however I would wager more that the name we get is a value grab, wherever on the scale that lands, more so than a marquee name (if FA is the way we acquire).

 

Lastly, I don't believe this is a strategy that Stearns has put in place for this particular stretch of months between seasons. I believe it is his mindset on how to do his job. The offseason is just the time frame when there are more bodies and resumes available to do this job with. Aside from that, I would always encourage you to find value when you are out shopping with your kids. If you go to the Dollar Store and you are looking for a few items and you happen to see beach towels are on sale for $1 each ... I would suggest grabbing a couple even if you don't need them because you will down the line and you will be happy you had a few waiting in the closet rather than having to spend $10-$20 at Kohls. Grabbing items of value in anticipation of depleting future needs is a great way to build financial flexibility and freedom if money is typically scarce. It CAN be a great way to live life and also a great way to operate a baseball team.

[3and2Fastball]

The Brewers have one of the top 3 players in the game in Yelich, an emerging star in Hiura, one of the top 3 hitting catchers in Narvaez, one of the best relief pitchers in the game in Hader, a Gold Glove CF, and an emerging ace in Woodruff...

 

No, they are not punting on 2020 and focusing on ‘21/‘22!

[jonescm128]

Honestly, I don't think Stearns believes in the concept of 'contending' and 'not contending' the same way we do. I think he believes in acquiring assets and value. Sometimes that looks like a kid with upside coming off an injury with 4 years of control and sometimes that looks like a vet for 1 year who you can predict will produce X stats and you can sign him for X dollars and once in a great while that looks like a veteran on a 4 year deal with a considerable amount of money considered. Roster dictates moves somewhat .. obviously we need a body to be standing next to 3rd base once the season starts so an acquisition will likely happen... BUT ... if the remaining options on the trade and FA market don't fit the value model he and his staff have created ... Urias will likely be our opening day 3B.

 

I just think the puzzle we are trying to build as fans and the puzzle David Stearns is trying to build are two completely different puzzles.

 

Very well put.

[A Swing and A Drive]

So as GM, Stearns is just acquiring cheap, young talent, regardless of position?

 

If we just need a warm body next to 3B on Opening Day then so be it?

 

So his offseason strategy is like when I take my kids to the dollar store? We go there needing 3 things, only find 1 or 2 of them, but leave with 10 things we don't really need but were some pretty nice values?

 

I'm assuming you are responding to me. I'll do my best to answer all 3 of your questions.

 

First answer, kind of. I think his job is to continually build a 26 man, 40 man, and minor league system that is flexible and has current and future upside. "Regardless of position" ... well, yes. If other GM's are not out there trying to also find additional pitching or minor league depth because they have a 2B need on the big league club ... they are either working in one of the big 5 markets or they are not doing their job correctly.

 

Second, I appreciate your passion but please remember it is not yet Christmas. I would wager we will have a different name starting at 3rd for us than what we currently have penciled in... however I would wager more that the name we get is a value grab, wherever on the scale that lands, more so than a marquee name (if FA is the way we acquire).

 

Lastly, I don't believe this is a strategy that Stearns has put in place for this particular stretch of months between seasons. I believe it is his mindset on how to do his job. The offseason is just the time frame when there are more bodies and resumes available to do this job with. Aside from that, I would always encourage you to find value when you are out shopping with your kids. If you go to the Dollar Store and you are looking for a few items and you happen to see beach towels are on sale for $1 each ... I would suggest grabbing a couple even if you don't need them because you will down the line and you will be happy you had a few waiting in the closet rather than having to spend $10-$20 at Kohls. Grabbing items of value in anticipation of depleting future needs is a great way to build financial flexibility and freedom if money is typically scarce. It CAN be a great way to live life and also a great way to operate a baseball team.

 

Lol. Awesome response to my somewhat snarky questions.

 

And for the record, if I take my kids shopping for toothpaste, we somehow leave with candy as well, so maybe it's not the right analogy. lol

 

Moral of the Story... Brewers can't afford to shop at Kohls.

 

And that's 100% fine by me.

 

However, I'd like to think they can at least get a few essential items at Target after leaving the dollar store.

[82brewcrew82]

Honestly, I don't think Stearns believes in the concept of 'contending' and 'not contending' the same way we do. I think he believes in acquiring assets and value. Sometimes that looks like a kid with upside coming off an injury with 4 years of control and sometimes that looks like a vet for 1 year who you can predict will produce X stats and you can sign him for X dollars and once in a great while that looks like a veteran on a 4 year deal with a considerable amount of money considered. Roster dictates moves somewhat .. obviously we need a body to be standing next to 3rd base once the season starts so an acquisition will likely happen... BUT ... if the remaining options on the trade and FA market don't fit the value model he and his staff have created ... Urias will likely be our opening day 3B.

 

I just think the puzzle we are trying to build as fans and the puzzle David Stearns is trying to build are two completely different puzzles.

 

Very well put.

I agree. As forward thinking as this board is at times, I still don't think the way DS thinks is fully grasped. His clubs won't be built along "traditional" lines.

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Brewers have one of the top 3 players in the game in Yelich, an emerging star in Hiura, one of the top 3 hitting catchers in Narvaez, one of the best relief pitchers in the game in Hader, a Gold Glove CF, and an emerging ace in Woodruff...

 

No, they are not punting on 2020 and focusing on ‘21/‘22!

 

Like I said, I don't think they are punting 2020 but rather focusing on 2021 and 2022.

 

Do you not agree that their roster turnover for a contender is extreme and that they have lost a TON of talent to Free Agency?

 

I think it's refreshing and advantageous to have a GM that knows he has job security so that he CAN focus on a larger window for contention rather than make willy-nilly moves to try to save the upcoming season (a la Preller-SD or DiPoto-SEA) or to have to make flashy "big name" signings to satisfy their fan base.

 

A lot of Brewers fans are strangely excited by most diamond-in-the-rough signings like Ryon Healy (agree) and Brett Anderson (disagree).

 

Some don't understand the mindset and it's completely understandable.

[3and2Fastball]

If Stearns went out and spent big money on a 2B who would hit .300 with 40+ HR’s per season over the next 4-5 years, would you be happy?!

 

If Hiura hits like that in 2020, will you remember this thread?

 

Will you understand that spreading that money around to Garcia, Narvaez, B Anderson, Lindblom, & Urias is a wiser choice....?!

[bill hAll Star]

The Brewers have one of the top 3 players in the game in Yelich, an emerging star in Hiura, one of the top 3 hitting catchers in Narvaez, one of the best relief pitchers in the game in Hader, a Gold Glove CF, and an emerging ace in Woodruff...

 

No, they are not punting on 2020 and focusing on ‘21/‘22!

 

Like I said, I don't think they are punting 2020 but rather focusing on 2021 and 2022.

 

Do you not agree that their roster turnover for a contender is extreme and that they have lost a TON of talent to Free Agency?

 

I think it's refreshing and advantageous to have a GM that knows he has job security so that he CAN focus on a larger window for contention rather than make willy-nilly moves to try to save the upcoming season (a la Preller-SD or DiPoto-SEA) or to have to make flashy "big name" signings to satisfy their fan base.

 

A lot of Brewers fans are strangely excited by most diamond-in-the-rough signings like Ryon Healy (agree) and Brett Anderson (disagree).

 

Some don't understand the mindset and it's completely understandable.

 

Brett Anderson has put up productive major league seasons as of *checks notes* 2019. He is a good diamond-in-the-rough signing and will help them win this year.

 

Healy is a diamond-in-the-rough signing in the sense that maybe that power can be harnessed better but he's likely AAA fodder (which we need at that position). I would be legitimately shocked if Healy was in a major role to open this season. We need 1B/3B depth and I'm assuming he starts the year in San Antonio or as the last bench bat at the most.

 

I don't really get the "huge roster turnover loss" thing. Yes, Yaz and Mous were big losses. They also had a massive set of underperformers in 2019 that got them only to 90 instead of 96 wins. Those guys are also now gone in the "roster turnover" and most of them I do not expect to ever get back to 2018 production. The only other one is Drew Pomeranz who was with the Brewers for 2 months and was a brilliant trade deadline piece...something that may be replicated again.

[3and2Fastball]

The Brewers have one of the top 3 players in the game in Yelich, an emerging star in Hiura, one of the top 3 hitting catchers in Narvaez, one of the best relief pitchers in the game in Hader, a Gold Glove CF, and an emerging ace in Woodruff...

 

No, they are not punting on 2020 and focusing on ‘21/‘22!

 

Do you not agree that their roster turnover for a contender is extreme and that they have lost a TON of talent to Free Agency? .

 

They’ve already replaced the production of Grandal & Moustakas with Narvaez & Garcia.

 

And that is if Narvaez & Garcia continue to hit like they did in their former home ballparks. One should have every reason to believe that their production will improve in the Brewers ballpark.

 

And Moustakas & Grandal are older. There is reason to guess that their production may decline, certainly by 2021...

 

So the Brewers have already replaced the production of the Top 2 players who left with 2 younger & cheaper players... and somehow that is supposed to worry me!?

 

I’ll respectfully disagree with any thoughts of extreme turnover. I suppose some people don’t realize how talented Narvaez & Garcia are... I would imagine that most fans here, let alone casual fans, haven’t seen them play very often.

 

And I haven’t even started with talking about how talented Urias is....

[xisxisxis]

They’ve already replaced the production of Grandal & Moustakas with Narvaez & Garcia.

Wrong on both counts.

[bigredrobbo]

They’ve already replaced the production of Grandal & Moustakas with Narvaez & Garcia.

Wrong on both counts.

 

Hey, since you obviously own a time machine, couldya lemme know which stocks I should pick up cheap that'll increase in value?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

They’ve already replaced the production of Grandal & Moustakas with Narvaez & Garcia.

Wrong on both counts.

 

3and2Fastball is missing a "potentially".

 

Although it could potentially be wrong as well. Stating either as fact is off-base.

[bill hAll Star]

I think Narvaez and Garcia can replicate the offense lost by Yaz and Moustakas.

 

The issue is positional advantage (Garcia/Mous) and defense (Yaz/Narvaez). But they can improve in other ways to offset that.