Interesting Read: Milwaukee Brewers: How this offseason could be trouble for them

[Jopal78]

Furthermore, isn’t Stearns running the team exactly how a small market GM should? He could signed Grandal to a multi-year deal with an AAV of 18 million any time from last winter through this November and he decided not to, taking advantage of the fact Grandal would sign a one year deal because of the QO he received.

 

He knows who his core guys are and he also knows the only way he can remain competitive is having a pipeline of young talent to replace the core as they leave as free agents, and finding a revolving cast of affordable veterans or players willing to sign a short term deal to supplement that core.

 

For years folks around here clamored for a GM more like Beane and when they finally get one, they gripe that he’s not more like the old school baseball GMs. You can’t please everyone all the time I suppose.

[TURBO]

Who is griping? Seriously, since the main griper got a week ban, who is still griping about how Stearns is doing things?

[xisxisxis]

Who is griping? Seriously, since the main griper got a week ban, who is still griping about how Stearns is doing things?

Unfortunately the current Brewerfan is criticizing = griping.

 

And of course another thread with condescending posts by mods reminding us of the date. Thanks, if I only knew how to read a calendar I would be so much happier...

 

This offseason is different from the last 2:

1) there is very little midl-evel talent to be had.

2) more FA are signing early and especially in the mid category where the Moustakasis and the Grandals of the world reside. There aren't going to be "deals" to be had in mid-January and after.

 

Osuna and Castellanos are going to get head scratching deals when they finally sign as each previous signing makes the sellers market even better...

 

Having said that, my only real complaints so far this offseason is them walking away from Grandal at the price he was signed for. You don't get 4WAR players for $18M AAV often and declining Thames thinking they will get him cheaper when they very well could pay more for similar production.

[A Swing and A Drive]

 

If there is a Yelich on another team to trade for (Lindor,Betts, etc), the Brewers don't have the farm system to be able to acquire them.

 

I don't think this is accurate. He wasn't that highly regarded, certainly nowhere near where Lindor and Betts stand, at the time of the trade. He exploded after coming to MKE. He was a good, young player, I don't think anyone thought he was a cornerstone guy at the time of the deal. If they traded for another Yelich you wouldn't be able to tell it.

 

 

You are right about Yelich, but he did finish in the top 20 in MVP voting in 2016 as a Marlin, so it's not like he wasn't a borderline all-star at a young age before the Brewers got him. He was also a former first round pick with a high ceiling.

 

I quickly looked over the roster of the 5 teams I think have no chance to contend in 2020 and I didn't see many potential "Yelichs"

 

Marlins- Full Rebuild, holding onto any controlled young players at this point. Dark Horse= Brian Anderson?

Orioles- Trey Mancini would be a great young player to get, but he already had a big breakout last year. Dark Horse= Austin Hays?

Pirates- Gregory Polanco perhaps? Don't see a very high ceiling with him and is injury prone.

Tigers- Don't see any players on their roster with Yelich type ceiling. Dark Dark horses= Victor Reyes or Christian Stewart? Nah...

Royals- Same as Tigers. Soler broke out last year. Not trading Mondesi. Dark horses but lower ceilings= Hunter Dozier or Bubba Starling?

 

I just don't think a player like Yelich would be available to acquire via trade this year. That was like a once in a decade type opportunity the Brewers were the benefit of.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Who is griping? Seriously, since the main griper got a week ban, who is still griping about how Stearns is doing things?

Unfortunately the current Brewerfan is criticizing = griping.

 

And of course another thread with condescending posts by mods reminding us of the date. Thanks, if I only knew how to read a calendar I would be so much happier...

 

This offseason is different from the last 2:

1) there is very little midl-evel talent to be had.

2) more FA are signing early and especially in the mid category where the Moustakasis and the Grandals of the world reside. There aren't going to be "deals" to be had in mid-January and after.

 

Osuna and Castellanos are going to get head scratching deals when they finally sign as each previous signing makes the sellers market even better...

 

Having said that, my only real complaints so far this offseason is them walking away from Grandal at the price he was signed for. You don't get 4WAR players for $18M AAV often and declining Thames thinking they will get him cheaper when they very well could pay more for similar production.

 

I think the point about mid level talent is pretty telling. That's where the Brewers market is, and other than Moustakas and Grandal, there wasn't a lot there this year. There's very fair reason to be leery of either of them on 4 year deals, and fair reason to think the Brewers could have/should have attempted to go after either/both on multi year deals. My own personal preference is to stay away from ANY catcher on multi-year deals after the age of 30.... but there ya go. I think the Brewers did an ok job of replacing Grandal's production with the Seattle trade.

 

The Thames option decline was, and still is, a head scratcher. If they released him with a specific trade or FA acquisition in mind that ends up not coming to pass, that's a bad move in hindsight. Not like they'll come out and say "yeah, we released ET and then the guy we wanted signed with this other team."

[Jopal78]

Who is griping? Seriously, since the main griper got a week ban, who is still griping about how Stearns is doing things?

Unfortunately the current Brewerfan is criticizing = griping.

 

And of course another thread with condescending posts by mods reminding us of the date. Thanks, if I only knew how to read a calendar I would be so much happier...

 

This offseason is different from the last 2:

1) there is very little midl-evel talent to be had.

2) more FA are signing early and especially in the mid category where the Moustakasis and the Grandals of the world reside. There aren't going to be "deals" to be had in mid-January and after.

 

Osuna and Castellanos are going to get head scratching deals when they finally sign as each previous signing makes the sellers market even better...

 

Having said that, my only real complaints so far this offseason is them walking away from Grandal at the price he was signed for. You don't get 4WAR players for $18M AAV often and declining Thames thinking they will get him cheaper when they very well could pay more for similar production.

 

I guess my point is the Brewers could invent a time machine and bring back Mickey Mantle to play for them and somebody would criticize saying there was a waste of the time machine because they didn’t get Babe Ruth.

 

Grandal, Moustakas, Avi Garcia, Brett Anderson.... All I know is it beats Wayne Franklin and John Vanderwal.

[TURBO]

I think counting on Thames still being there once we exhaust all of our other options is risky.

 

Everyday I log on expecting to see him signing elsewhere.

 

At some point, it is going to happen, and by waiting, we will miss out.

[MNBrew]

I relate to both the angst about the lack of spending on the biggest FA fish on the market and, a bit more so, the commendable pragmatism about Stearns' approach & effectiveness. Whatever the date, the most important thing to me is this:

 

So much emphasis & talk ends up focusing on "who won the winter." Stearns, though, has proven that he's good at building the Brewers into a winning team that has a good chance at the postseason. Too many teams who do a lot to win the winter fail significantly at winning sufficiently from April to October, and sometimes in colossal ways.

[Devinep]

I think counting on Thames still being there once we exhaust all of our other options is risky.

 

Everyday I log on expecting to see him signing elsewhere.

 

At some point, it is going to happen, and by waiting, we will miss out.

 

Then they’ll sign Smoak or Moreland, or trade for Dom Smith. I also think they should bring back Thames, but it’s not like it’s Thames or nothing.

[wallus]

I am of the opinion that this GM/Front Office have earned the benefit of the doubt. I think for the first time as a Brewers fan, I can confidently say that. Now if the team is terrible this season, that trust will be gone.

[xisxisxis]

I think the point about mid level talent is pretty telling. That's where the Brewers market is, and other than Moustakas and Grandal, there wasn't a lot there this year. There's very fair reason to be leery of either of them on 4 year deals, and fair reason to think the Brewers could have/should have attempted to go after either/both on multi year deals. My own personal preference is to stay away from ANY catcher on multi-year deals after the age of 30.... but there ya go. I think the Brewers did an ok job of replacing Grandal's production with the Seattle trade.

I think it's a good practice to have in place standard criteria for evaluating players and contracts (especially for a team like the Brewers where 1 bad contract can really be a toxic event). However, it's also important to recognize how a player might be different. I use the term "mid-level" in reference to Grandal, but he really has performed at an elite level for awhile (>5WAR catchers are rare). I like that we've added a player like Narvaez, but there are valid reasons to believe he may not come close to Grandal's numbers, especially when including defense. I understand the Brewers downgrading pitch framing for upcoming changes, but I also think they are jumping the gun on the timeline for "robot" strike zones. Baseball moves slowly on even the most obvious changes that expecting a revolution like this to just fly through is a bit optimistic. I actually would have been really happy with signing Grandal AND trading for Narvaez with Grandal as the primary catcher, but taking on more 1B/DH work over the years to reduce strain. That's my 2cents and obviously Stearns is going to use that money for other positions (if he does use it), but I doubt they get the same value from those other signings/moves.

 

And once again we are +4 years into the Stearns era and we need to see more value coming from the Farm System to really have a case where we have the payroll flexibility to go all out to pick up a missing piece through FA.

[FVBrewerFan]

I am of the opinion that this GM/Front Office have earned the benefit of the doubt. I think for the first time as a Brewers fan, I can confidently say that. Now if the team is terrible this season, that trust will be gone.

 

Even if they have a terrible season I'll still trust Stearns. They're entitled to a bad year, it happens. Especially when you lose Grandal, Moose, and others then hit an aggressive year in FA.

 

I honestly don't know what people expect. The blueprint is to build a "good" team every year. If a few players over-perform you're a contender and can buy at the deadline. But we can't expect them to be contenders every single year, that's unrealistic. They could go out and spend $200MM and their roster still wouldn't look as good on paper as other teams, so that's a foolish way to try to compete.

 

Finally, there is no such thing as a Yelich window. One player has nowhere near the impact as a HOF QB or NBA player. In fact, if anything, the window was 2018. When you're the Milwaukee Brewers, that's your shot. They got so close, and it's really tough to get back to that position.

[SeaBass]

Who is griping? Seriously, since the main griper got a week ban, who is still griping about how Stearns is doing things?

Unfortunately the current Brewerfan is criticizing = griping.

 

And of course another thread with condescending posts by mods reminding us of the date. Thanks, if I only knew how to read a calendar I would be so much happier...

 

This offseason is different from the last 2:

1) there is very little midl-evel talent to be had.

2) more FA are signing early and especially in the mid category where the Moustakasis and the Grandals of the world reside. There aren't going to be "deals" to be had in mid-January and after.

 

Osuna and Castellanos are going to get head scratching deals when they finally sign as each previous signing makes the sellers market even better...

 

Having said that, my only real complaints so far this offseason is them walking away from Grandal at the price he was signed for. You don't get 4WAR players for $18M AAV often and declining Thames thinking they will get him cheaper when they very well could pay more for similar production.

I would go further and say perhaps Stearns felt this off-season would be similar to the last two, with a slow free agency and depressed player salaries. In that light shedding contracts and positioning themselves to be spenders in such a market would make a lot of sense. If that was what Stearns was thinking, and of course we can't know that it is but it feels plausible, then when the rest of the baseball world decided to stop tanking and start spending that would be a pretty large monkey wrench crashing through his house of cards. I simply think the players he may have been targeting were signing larger deals than he was anticipating and he wasn't going to panic and spend more money for them than he budgeted. He likely turned to plan B which is what we're witnessing.

 

No, that doesn't free him from criticism, he put his eggs in the basket by stating he expects the team to remain a playoff contender this season so he needs to be held to that. I'd agree that the Thames decision was a miscalculation, it's entirely possible they simply wanted to move on from him but I think they'd make a different decision today if given a 2nd chance. I'm not as sold that Grandal will maintain the level of production he had last season though, I personally wasn't keen on signing him to a big long term contract, to me the catcher position isn't the one to sink that much money and risk into.

[xisxisxis]

I would go further and say perhaps Stearns felt this off-season would be similar to the last two, with a slow free agency and depressed player salaries. In that light shedding contracts and positioning themselves to be spenders in such a market would make a lot of sense. If that was what Stearns was thinking, and of course we can't know that it is but it feels plausible, then when the rest of the baseball world decided to stop tanking and start spending that would be a pretty large monkey wrench crashing through his house of cards. I simply think the players he may have been targeting were signing larger deals than he was anticipating and he wasn't going to panic and spend more money for them than he budgeted. He likely turned to plan B which is what we're witnessing.

That's possible. I have a feeling he knew there just wasn't the talent available this year to buy the needed talent to replace what was lost and instead of spending about the same to get worse he decided to take a step back, reduce salary and see how the few young pieces perform this year (does Hiura keep up a 4+ WAR performance, will Urias be the answer at short, is there upside in Narvaez, can Peralta and Burnes put 2019 behind them, is Woodruff a 3+WAR pitcher, etc) before looking to augment that talent following 2020 in a likely better FA environment.

[monty57]

The only reason we had Moose and Grandal was that there was a weak FA market last year and they wanted to sign a one-year deal to try again this year. The deals were structured into two-year deals simply to defer a few million from last year's payroll to this year, since those signings put us way over budget. Attanasio has shown that he will spend over budget in special circumstances, and getting those two deals last year qualified.

 

Therefore, it should have been expected that the team would cut back somewhat from last season's team record payroll. Throw in that we still have to pay a few million this year for the production Moose and Grandal gave us last year, and that hampers our spending even further. Finally, since Moose and Grandal only signed here for the one-year deal, no one should have expected that the Brewers would sign them to multi-year deals. That was obviously never the plan, or they simply would have signed them to multi-year deals last year when the price was better.

 

To the point of making up for what we lost, we should get similar offensive numbers at catcher, should get better offensive numbers at SS, and depending on how we use Garcia/Braun, we could make up for our 1B production, especially considering that Aguilar put up pretty bad numbers for us last year before being traded. Moose's numbers were split between 2B and 3B, so a full season of Huira should help make up for that loss, while our 3B numbers were split between Shaw and Moose, making it an easier hurdle to get over than simply trying to replace Moose. Pitching will be interesting, as we lost Chase, Davies and Lyles, but hopefully won't have the horrendous results we got from Peralta, Burns and Chacin as starters. There are questions in the rotation, but like Lyles, Miley and others, Lauer, Brett Anderson and Lindblom all seem like the type of guys Stearns sees something in and they turn out good.

 

Stearns has been active, and the holes left to fill seem to be 3B, some pitching help and probably a LH hitter who can play 1B. I can't see a scenario where our opening day 3B is currently with the team, so we will add someone there, and there's still some glimmer of hope that we could sign a Ryu or Dallas with our remaining cash. I'm not expecting the latter, but I fully expect to log on one day and see that Stearns has acquired a third baseman that will make us better.

 

I'm really excited about this team. The only reason I could see someone being truly upset is if they really thought that we could beat out all of the big markets for the top named guys. By the way, part of the reason the last few years' free agent classes had it tough was that some of the big markets were trying to shed payroll after they made the penalties tougher. They obviously got past that, so going forward the luxury tax threshold will help the Brewers, but they probably won't have years like the last two where they had excess payroll room after a short rebuild and most of the big markets were trying to shed salary.

[Thurston Fluff]

Seems to me the fastest way to lose in the summer is to win in the winter.

[superfly]

I am of the opinion that this GM/Front Office have earned the benefit of the doubt. I think for the first time as a Brewers fan, I can confidently say that. Now if the team is terrible this season, that trust will be gone.

 

Even if they have a terrible season I'll still trust Stearns. They're entitled to a bad year, it happens. Especially when you lose Grandal, Moose, and others then hit an aggressive year in FA.

 

I honestly don't know what people expect. The blueprint is to build a "good" team every year. If a few players over-perform you're a contender and can buy at the deadline. But we can't expect them to be contenders every single year, that's unrealistic. They could go out and spend $200MM and their roster still wouldn't look as good on paper as other teams, so that's a foolish way to try to compete.

 

Finally, there is no such thing as a Yelich window. One player has nowhere near the impact as a HOF QB or NBA player. In fact, if anything, the window was 2018. When you're the Milwaukee Brewers, that's your shot. They got so close, and it's really tough to get back to that position.

 

I don’t understand the strategy, besides hope. If we aren’t paying for any pitching, then perhaps we should have the bullpen pretty locked down? Rather were hoping on starting pitching as well as hoping on the bullpen. 5 million dollars on Eric Sogard? That’s 5 million of the 10 million I’d rather throw at Dellin Betances and see if that works out and plug holes with “guys.”

 

I have to hope there’s a bigger plan at work and Stearns deserves plenty of leeway, but there is a whole lot of hopes, uncertainties, and mediocrity all over the roster right now.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Just look back at last year’s pre-Spring Training Bleacher Report article for the offseason winners and losers. They credit 3 teams as winners:

 

1. Cincinnati Reds

2. New York Mets

3. Washington Nationals

 

Clearly only one of those teams was actually a winner, and was lauded in the article for wisely not giving Bryce Harper $300mil. We see it over and over, the teams making headlines in the offseason don’t consistently make headlines come summer/fall.

 

David Stearns is having a very nice offseason filling holes with good pieces, even if the average fan doesn’t recognize their names. And he’s not finished.

[SRB]

I feel like a lot of people complaining about the offseason are not putting things into perspective, including the number of free agent or trade options still available and the composition of the 26-man roster as a whole.

 

For example, lots of complaints about Ryon Healy and Eric Sogard in a vacuum, with people ignoring that those moves at best are replacing Ronny Rodriguez and Mark Mathias (or Tyrone Taylor) on the roster.

 

If Stearns manages to trade Arcia and bring in a quality 3B I think it will be one of the best offseasons in recent memory.

[mtrebs]

Careful what you wish for from Santa. Last time we acquired a "name" around Xmas, it was Jeff Suppan!

 

And Jeffrey Hammonds before that!

[TJseven7]

First of, Fansided has a lot of click bait, no facts included, crap quote laden material on it.

 

Second off. You think throwing 100 million dollars extra onto this team would make it better? Keep Grandal, then adding Strasburg MadBum and Rendon would make this team better in 2020? Get out! Really? No kidding.

 

That's also not possible. It's also not like this team is operating on an 60-80 mil payroll. Those days appear to be gone until a rebuild hits. This team is spending very aggressively for their market and the owner needs to get his due respect for that. There are far worse and there are teams far more lucrative than MKE. They're in the middle, and supposed to be.

 

The path to this team winning a WS is not through spending. The path to a WS for this team is through Woodruff, Hiura, Burnes, Urias, Peralta, Narvaez, Houser, Lauer, Rasmussen, Ashby, Small and Kelly. Contracts that have the ability to WELL EXCEED their price tag. If you look at MKE and say, "they need to spend" you clearly don't get it.

 

They need to gather up MLB players who are controlled who have a chance to exceed their price tag. Adding Urias, Lauer and Narvaez is the ONLY way MKE can accomplish that. People can grumble all they want about Garcia Anderson Lindblom and Sogard not being big enough adds but to acquire enough value to compete for a WS the team needs guys like the 3 young guys they acquired to pop. They need to stack that on top of the good core they have. They need guys like Peralta Burnes Houser to mature well.

 

This team will never have a starting 5 that scares teams. They can't buy it and growing it is very unlikely. They've improved those odds by not including interesting arms in trades (except for Yamamoto). Still, growing it is very hard to do. What they can do is build a very formidable offense. What they can do is put 9 guys in the pen who can shorten a playoff game to 4-5 innings. They got a lot of talent in the pen and frankly the AAA pen looks incredibly interesting. That's not counting Rasmussen Small Ashby or Kelly. That's the path they have to take.

 

Strong O, 2 times through starters, super pen. They've drafted to that, they've traded to that, they've bought towards that.

 

You do what you can with what you have. DS has done that well. They still can add 6 more guys. Everything they added seems to have fit well and it's not like they are sitting on the sidelines letting FA go by. The Sogard and Garcia deals look like they had some competition and decided to make it happen. They could be going about this quite a bit cheaper.

 

It takes a very valuable team to win a WS. That's just the way baseball works. If you can't afford that you have to earn it. That means taking in Anderson and hoping he's 2017 Chacin. That's adding Linblom and hoping he is worth 2x his cost. That's Narvaez Lauer and Urias being worth far more than their controlled prices.

 

Every sport is about 2 things. What value contracts do you have, and what can you spend on top of that. The less you can spend the more value you have to find. DS has opened that door many times this off season and that's the only way they win a title.

 

The Brewers aren't the Yankees or the Red Sox, Dodgers or Cubs. Get over it!

[SeaBass]

If you look at MKE and say, "they need to spend" you clearly don't get it.

I'm not really a signature guy, but this is darn near signature worthy.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I might be crazy wrong here, but I really like the way that Stearns has responded to the challenges of this offseason. The process is clearly not complete (3b in particular doesn't seem solved and I'd still love to see another pitcher or two), but it's been a major remaking of the roster and has a decent chance to be not only just as good in the near term, but also stronger in the medium term.

 

In particular I think the Urias acquisition is sneaky amazing. We had the combination of luck and foresight to get Yelich before he became one of the best players in the game. It remains to be seen, of course, but Urias seems like the best chance to do the same this offseason...a guy who has the potential to breakout, has the pedigree both from a scouting and analytics point of view, but because he hasn't been amazing in the majors yet, he was available for a price we could meet.

[Oxy]

I haven't minded any of the moves Stearns has made individually. They have all made enough sense to kinda shrug and hope for the best as there hasn't been a lot of downside to any of them. However, I was/am hoping that we could make some trades to pick up more guys like Urias and Lauer rather than filling the roster with 1 or 2 yr FAs. We need to get younger cost controlled players to really build something solid to win consistently year after year.

[TJseven7]

I haven't minded any of the moves Stearns has made individually. They have all made enough sense to kinda shrug and hope for the best as there hasn't been a lot of downside to any of them. However, I was/am hoping that we could make some trades to pick up more guys like Urias and Lauer rather than filling the roster with 1 or 2 yr FAs. We need to get younger cost controlled players to really build something solid to win consistently year after year.

 

Urias happened because we got a "sell high" point on Grisham who exploded.

Lauer's control took a very solid dependable 2 years of Davies.

Narvaez took the comp pick and Hill.

 

You don't get a lot of shots to pull those moves. DS hit multiples in one off season. He hits 3 every year on top of the draft and it's going to go a very long way.

 

I also think the farm is much more interesting that MKE's farm rank points out. MKE has raced guys to the majors. Hiura, Peralta, Burnes and Grisham (Urias) could still be in the farm if MKE wasn't as aggressive as they are at moving up guys who are succeeding. You look back on recent drafts and how some of the advanced age arms are producing and you realize there could be a few guys in MKE or knocking on the door by years end. Most don't profile as top 2 options but 3s through 5s galore. They have a ton of OF prospects that are athletic freaks who could blow up just like Harrison or Grisham any year.

 

There's quite a bit of cost controlled talent in this system. (MiLB and MLB) Throwing 3 more into that fray this year was a big boost.