3rd Base Candidates

[StearnsFTW]

Lord. Data is good.

[bigred]

Lord. Data is good.

 

 

There's also a habit called "overthinking" things too.

[Brewcrewin07]

Lord. Data is good.

 

Data is fine, no question about it, but a lot of times, and it's not just posters here but people in a lot of different places think analytical numbers are gospel. That's what bothers me about it. People have clung to analytics like they are the be all end all, and an absolutely perfect system. I have news for those people. It's not perfect. never has been, never will be. Sometimes, keeping it simple is all you need. I mean look at how many people here cite War...like it's the be all end all and if they don't have this or that War, that means they aren't very good, as if that tells them everything they need to know. It isn't. I mean back before analytics existed, people were able to tell who was good and who wasn't by using the simple eye test(which to me is still accurate), now, it seems people don't trust their eyes enough that they are relying on analytics to essentially "do the work for them". How did we ever survive this life without analytics and advanced metrics??

[Devinep]

 

It's accurate enough for me. Whatever i choose to use, is what it will be. Back when I played baseball, we didn't have all these fancy metrics to "measure" things. They weren't necessary. You could tell a good ball player when you saw one. Why that isn't still true today, I'm not sure, but sometimes, we saturate ourselves so much in analytics now that it becomes over kill.

 

I don’t care if battingaverage is enough for you to evaluate a hitter too, it’s still wrong. I guess Thames was a stud OF last year-zero errors! And no, you couldn’t tell a good player by seeing one, were talking about the pro levels here

[TJseven7]

It's accurate enough for me. Whatever i choose to use, is what it will be. Back when I played baseball, we didn't have all these fancy metrics to "measure" things. They weren't necessary. You could tell a good ball player when you saw one. Why that isn't still true today, I'm not sure, but sometimes, we saturate ourselves so much in analytics now that it becomes over kill.

 

Because the eye test lies unless you actually watch the player an extensive amount through the eyes of someone who is actually qualified to scout.

 

You'll never see me pointing to analytics as the end all be all. I sit in the camp of that believes great progress is being made but the metrics are still a long ways off from correct. Baseball is the sport that is furthest ahead. But you can't turn around and point to errors and fielding percentage and say in my day you just watched people and could tell a good player when you saw one. No, you couldn't. That's precisely why Beane succeeded. Perception on short sample sizes lie. Fielding percentage and errors tell you absolutely zero about range. They tell you absolutely zero about the ability of the 3b to make the throws required for the position. It tells you they didn't screw up things they touched and that they were accurate with a throw.

 

One step down the analytics path shows him to be a dreadful 3b. His UZR is dreadful. Culprit. Range, no shock.

 

Please don't reject analytics in the manor you do. It makes analytics folk lump people who are grumbling about inaccurate variables (in the attempts to challenge analytics to go further) with guys who watched a guy pick 5 balls at 3b and go, well he looks fine to me!

 

I'd like to know how much you actually watched him to come the the conclusion of "I can just tell he's a good player." Looked at his offensive numbers? Looked at errors? If you go look at 2008-2011 Yuni B played around 4900 innings at SS. Yuni Bs range at SS = Castellanos range at 3B. It's that level of immobile. His F% was around .965 and he made 78 errors. Roughly 850 PO. In Castellanos 4400 innings only 310 PO.

 

That's actually a bad F% and a lot of errors based on his attempts. Don't spit on analytics because it's stupid numbers kids OVERTHINKING, when you aren't doing the required work to have an educated opinion. You are pointing at basic stats to prove your point and you aren't even reading them correctly because you aren't even acknowledging volume.

 

You'll come back and say, "well it's my opinion." Yeah, that's great but its a horrible take, that lacks a ton of information, any credibility and it's flatly wrong. The good old days weren't better, they were lazy and uninformed.

[umphrey]

Haha the Tigers moved Castellanos off 3B because he was the worst in the league there, they thought he couldn’t cut it

[82brewcrew82]

Lord. Data is good.

 

Data is fine, no question about it, but a lot of times, and it's not just posters here but people in a lot of different places think analytical numbers are gospel. That's what bothers me about it. People have clung to analytics like they are the be all end all, and an absolutely perfect system. I have news for those people. It's not perfect. never has been, never will be. Sometimes, keeping it simple is all you need. I mean look at how many people here cite War...like it's the be all end all and if they don't have this or that War, that means they aren't very good, as if that tells them everything they need to know. It isn't. I mean back before analytics existed, people were able to tell who was good and who wasn't by using the simple eye test(which to me is still accurate), now, it seems people don't trust their eyes enough that they are relying on analytics to essentially "do the work for them". How did we ever survive this life without analytics and advanced metrics??

Back before we had stoves and microwaves we could cook well enough. Ovens and microwaves have made cooking a whole lot more efficient and accurate tho. Having said that, there isn't one person on this board that will tell you analytics is the end all be all. Not one...ever. This is just another straw-man argument and an attack on those that actually understand the analytics and how to use them. They matter because our eyes lie to us and the "eye test" is every bit as flawed as some of the metrics. Heck, this entire window this team is operating is highly analytically driven and it has been a complete success. The proof is right there.

 

Having said that, I am increasingly in the camp that suspects Andujars defensive shortcomings are being a bit overplayed, particularly when equally poor defenders are being proposed as alternatives.

[wntrtxn21]

Lord. Data is good.

 

Data is fine, no question about it, but a lot of times, and it's not just posters here but people in a lot of different places think analytical numbers are gospel. That's what bothers me about it. People have clung to analytics like they are the be all end all, and an absolutely perfect system. I have news for those people. It's not perfect. never has been, never will be. Sometimes, keeping it simple is all you need. I mean look at how many people here cite War...like it's the be all end all and if they don't have this or that War, that means they aren't very good, as if that tells them everything they need to know. It isn't. I mean back before analytics existed, people were able to tell who was good and who wasn't by using the simple eye test(which to me is still accurate), now, it seems people don't trust their eyes enough that they are relying on analytics to essentially "do the work for them". How did we ever survive this life without analytics and advanced metrics??

Back before we had stoves and microwaves we could cook well enough. Ovens and microwaves have made cooking a whole lot more efficient and accurate tho. Having said that, there isn't one person on this board that will tell you analytics is the end all be all. Not one...ever. This is just another straw-man argument and an attack on those that actually understand the analytics and how to use them. They matter because our eyes lie to us and the "eye test" is every bit as flawed as some of the metrics. Heck, this entire window this team is operating is highly analytically driven and it has been a complete success. The proof is right there.

 

Having said that, I am increasingly in the camp that suspects Andujars defensive shortcomings are being a bit overplayed, particularly when equally poor defenders are being proposed as alternatives.

 

I don't believe there was an equally poor fielding alternative to Andujars. It's hard to overplay his defensive shortcomings when he was the worst fielding 3B in all of baseball. A couple of bloggers have speculated Castellanos could play 3B, but that's unrealistic. The fact is with Anderson, Lindblom, Lauer, etc.. there is going to be a lot of balls pulled and a lot of ground balls. The Crew can't afford to have the worst defensive 3B in baseball at the hot corner.

[RollieTime]

To be fair, Castellanos had one absolutely terrible year at 3B his first full year in the majors when he was only 22 years old. Not saying that Andujar couldn’t progress like Castellanos did, but Andujar was much much worse than what Castellanos was at third the 3 years after his absolutely brutal rookie campaign. Castellanos would be a poor defender at third base, but Andujar is on a whole other level beyond Castellanos. Which is pretty darn telling of just how bad he is defensively.

[82brewcrew82]

To be fair, Castellanos had one absolutely terrible year at 3B his first full year in the majors when he was only 22 years old. Not saying that Andujar couldn’t progress like Castellanos did, but Andujar was much much worse than what Castellanos was at third the 3 years after his absolutely brutal rookie campaign. Castellanos would be a poor defender at third base, but Andujar is on a whole other level beyond Castellanos. Which is pretty darn telling of just how bad he is defensively.

You are much more informed than me on this so lay it out for me. What metric, that is reliable with basically one year of data, is being used to determine that Andujar is the worst 3B since Ryan Braun (hyperbolic, yes)? What skill set does Castellanos possess that allowed to improve that Andujar does not have? Is Andujar stiff? Is he not athletic enough to improve? Will all the shifting we do mitigate some of the issues? Can he be moved to another position in a year or two and we survive with him at third for a couple of years?

 

Not being a jerk or sarcastic, I legitimately respect your thoughts on these questions.

[brewcrewdue80]

To be fair, Castellanos had one absolutely terrible year at 3B his first full year in the majors when he was only 22 years old. Not saying that Andujar couldn’t progress like Castellanos did, but Andujar was much much worse than what Castellanos was at third the 3 years after his absolutely brutal rookie campaign. Castellanos would be a poor defender at third base, but Andujar is on a whole other level beyond Castellanos. Which is pretty darn telling of just how bad he is defensively.

You are much more informed than me on this so lay it out for me. What metric, that is reliable with basically one year of data, is being used to determine that Andujar is the worst 3B since Ryan Braun (hyperbolic, yes)? What skill set does Castellanos possess that allowed to improve that Andujar does not have? Is Andujar stiff? Is he not athletic enough to improve? Will all the shifting we do mitigate some of the issues? Can he be moved to another position in a year or two and we survive with him at third for a couple of years?

 

Not being a jerk or sarcastic, I legitimately respect your thoughts on these questions.

 

I already made mention to this in the Hader thread. Andujar is coming off Torn Labrum and shoulder surgery to repair it. What I didnt post was that the torn labrum was to his throwing arm. Already a poor defender we know how tprn labrum affect throwing via Nelson(Andujar injured sliding in to 3b) DRS stands fpr defensive runs saved. His rookie year he was responsible for -25runs fielding 3b. His range is well below league avg. He had a 94.8% fielding rate that after rehab befpre surgery was 7 out of 10. He was on pace for -100runs value playing a full season. The bat's value was worth 21runs above replacement value. Somehow that math equaled 2.2 War his rookie season.

Essentially this would be like us offering Nelson+ for Hader based on what we knew up to beginning of 2019.

Andujar's minor league career is a .736OPS only the stretch ending 2017 and his 2018 season did he display 850ops results. So

Please explain to me why Andujar fits in a Hader trade? What makes you feel that he'll be every bit the hitter w/o worsened defense post surgery, while he's not played a single game to prove so?

[sveumrules]

To be fair, Castellanos had one absolutely terrible year at 3B his first full year in the majors when he was only 22 years old. Not saying that Andujar couldn’t progress like Castellanos did, but Andujar was much much worse than what Castellanos was at third the 3 years after his absolutely brutal rookie campaign. Castellanos would be a poor defender at third base, but Andujar is on a whole other level beyond Castellanos. Which is pretty darn telling of just how bad he is defensively.

 

Advanced metrics go back to 2002. In that time there have been 344 qualified 3B seasons. The worst by DRS are...

 

2007 Braun: -32 (344th) | 2014 Castellanos: -30 (343rd) | 2018 Andujar: -25 (341st)

 

UZR has it...

 

2007 Braun: -28.5 (344th) | 2018 Andujar: -16 (341st) | 2014 Castellanos: -10.6 (322nd)

 

We know what happened to Braun, hello OF!!

 

Over the next three years Castellanos improved from historically awful to merely worst in MLB with a -34 DRS & -15.3 UZR in 3,000+ innings at 3B until, he too said, hello OF!!

 

Andujar was also historically awful as a rookie, then got injured, but considering he is three years younger & has played 3B more recently than Castellanos, I'd imagine that Miguel would be better (less bad?) afield in 2020.

 

But, Castellanos looks to be OF only at this point so we'll probably never get to find out.

[RollieTime]

To be fair, Castellanos had one absolutely terrible year at 3B his first full year in the majors when he was only 22 years old. Not saying that Andujar couldn’t progress like Castellanos did, but Andujar was much much worse than what Castellanos was at third the 3 years after his absolutely brutal rookie campaign. Castellanos would be a poor defender at third base, but Andujar is on a whole other level beyond Castellanos. Which is pretty darn telling of just how bad he is defensively.

You are much more informed than me on this so lay it out for me. What metric, that is reliable with basically one year of data, is being used to determine that Andujar is the worst 3B since Ryan Braun (hyperbolic, yes)? What skill set does Castellanos possess that allowed to improve that Andujar does not have? Is Andujar stiff? Is he not athletic enough to improve? Will all the shifting we do mitigate some of the issues? Can he be moved to another position in a year or two and we survive with him at third for a couple of years?

 

Not being a jerk or sarcastic, I legitimately respect your thoughts on these questions.

 

All of these numbers will be Andujar’s 1,200 inning results compared to Castellanos’ in 4,400 innings.

 

rGDP was -3 in 1200 innings for Andujar. Castellanos’ was -2 in 4,400 innings.

Andujar’s rGFP was -4, Castellanos is -1.

RPM: Andujar -19, Castellanos is -60 (with half of that in his first year, the next 3 years was right around -10, being much better than Andujar).

DRS: Andujar -27, Castellanos -64, again, 30 of that was in his first season, it was “only” -34 the next 3 years combined.

OOZ: Andujar 30, Castellanos 161, Andujar would be around 110 for this if playing the same amount of innings.

DPR : Andujar -2.7, Castellanos -1.4

RngR: Andujar -11.8, Castellanos -28.6. Almost 11 of that was his first season. His last two years were around -5.

ErrR: Andujar -3.8, Castellanos 4.2

UZR: Andujar was -18.3, Castellanos -25.8 (mind you Castellanos has played almost 4 times as many innings at third for this. Andujar was -16 last year. Castellanos’ worst season wasn’t even -11. His was well improved after his first terrible season).

UZR/150: Andujar -26.1, Castellanos -7.4

 

Some of these are tough to judge because of Andujar’s lone season to go off of to see if it is a trend or just one brutal season. I would say it is probably a trend and why I would have no interest in Andujar as a centerpiece. For as much flack as Castellanos gets for how poor he was at third, Andujar truly is on his own level of bad well beyond Castellanos. At least the numbers point towards that in his first season.

 

He can definitely still improve obviously, but he’s not going to probably ever even come close to an average defender. Time will tell though.

[82brewcrew82]

I don't know how you can determine a trend from one year of data and, in reality, I don't know how can determine anything reliable from one year of defensive metrics. I don't think it's fair to just extrapolate out Andujars one year and make that conclusion and just assume no improvement. The metrics show Castellanos was actually worse than Andujar so these statements about Andujar being so bad he makes Castellanos look good are certainly being overblown. I mean, if being a bad defensive player is not acceptable why are the same people not clamoring to trade Hiura?

 

Why does Andujar have to be considered the centerpiece just because he is included in the deal? Maybe DS sees Garcia or Dominguez as the real prize and Andujar as one of the "other" pieces. Frankly, the resistance to trading with the Yankees seems much more about not wanting to trade with the Yankees than it does anything esle.

[RollieTime]

I even said in my post that it’s tough to come to a definitive conclusion based on his one season. I even stated that he can definitely still improve his defense at the end of my post. Are you just arguing with me for the sake of it at this point? You’re making it sound like I’m saying absolute statements even though the arguments you’re trying to make against me are actually exactly what I said. One season isn’t enough and that he can still improve. The point was that Castellanos was a better defender than Andujar at third when he was moved off of it. The numbers point to it his last three years after his first horrendous year.

 

Not saying that Castellanos can move back to third after a couple years and pick up where he left off. But Castellanos was a better defender there than Andujar has shown in his first full season.

 

And on your last point regarding Hader, I never said Andujar had to be a centerpiece. I stated before in the Hader thread that if Andujar is a secondary or third piece in a deal, then I’m all for it. But a headliner of Andujar for the two year running relief pitcher of the year that has 4 years of control remaining, would be an extremely underwhelming return knowing that Andujar would be the “big get”. I just don’t see Stearns moving Hader for a guy who probably shouldn’t be playing in the field, who just had major surgery on his throwing arm, as a headliner on a return and trying to sell that to the fans during this competitive window.

 

When other people think of Brewers baseball right now, they think of Bob Uecker, Christian Yelich, and that fireman Josh Hader coming out of the pen to put an end to the game. Stearns will not trade a player of Hader’s caliber for a bunch of flawed or mediocre talent.

[82brewcrew82]

I even said in my post that it’s tough to come to a definitive conclusion based on his one season. I even stated that he can definitely still improve his defense at the end of my post. Are you just arguing with me for the sake of it at this point? You’re making it sound like I’m saying absolute statements even though the arguments you’re trying to make against me are actually exactly what I said. One season isn’t enough and that he can still improve. The point was that Castellanos was a better defender than Andujar at third when he was moved off of it. The numbers point to it his last three years after his first horrendous year.

No, no. My apologies, not arguing with you at all. I don't necessarily agree with the conclusions that are being drawn based on arbitrary assumptions and there is definitely some hyperbole going on but I get your perspective.

[RollieTime]

I even said in my post that it’s tough to come to a definitive conclusion based on his one season. I even stated that he can definitely still improve his defense at the end of my post. Are you just arguing with me for the sake of it at this point? You’re making it sound like I’m saying absolute statements even though the arguments you’re trying to make against me are actually exactly what I said. One season isn’t enough and that he can still improve. The point was that Castellanos was a better defender than Andujar at third when he was moved off of it. The numbers point to it his last three years after his first horrendous year.

No, no. My apologies, not arguing with you at all. I don't necessarily agree with the conclusions that are being drawn based on arbitrary assumptions and there is definitely some hyperbole going on but I get your perspective.

 

My apologies as well. We just seemed to be mostly on the same page so I was a little confused what was going on lol. Not a problem. But for a long term solution, I hope the Brewers explore something like a 6/$90 million contract with Castellanos (AAV of $15 million). Braun is off the books next year and a contract like this would only go through his age 33 season. Not a bad deal at all. Especially for a player just entering his prime and a guy I think could be a middle of the order bat for us now and in the future.

 

I expect Castellanos is waiting on Donaldson to come off the board so teams pivot to him and throw money at him. I feel like $90 million over 6 years is a very competitive offer and one that wouldn’t be a massive risk for us knowing that he’s a .280ish hitter that will hit 25-30 homers and hit around 40 doubles. He might even have a little untapped potential in there that could break loose in 2020.

 

I feel that a move like this to fill the hole at third is better than possibly pigeonholing ourselves in a way on a trade of Hader to include a third baseman.

 

Keep Hader, bring in Flores for third base, and sign Castellanos as a right fielder/possibly 3B/possibly 1B option. Getting at bats to everyone will sort itself out along the way.

[TJseven7]

Keep Hader, bring in Flores for third base, and sign Castellanos as a right fielder/possibly 3B/possibly 1B option. Getting at bats to everyone will sort itself out along the way.

 

I get the premise, but I don't think Castellanos and Garcia are moves you make together. Castellanos is pretty rough in RF as well. He's really only graded well defensively at LF in a limited sample. It makes sense to have both in 2021. Bit of a log jam in 2020 and I'm not sure Castellanos is the guy you go through that transition to make sure you acquire.

 

Had they not signed Garcia that idea makes a lot more sense.

 

As for Andujar. I'm not sure why people are so bent on going against the evidence. No one knows if he can stick at 3B but we all got a pretty good idea. I don't get why people get so hung up on these low probability of success options. Is it possible things could turn around for him, sure. It's not likely that he can play 3B though. Castellanos has even more evidence that points to him being a pretty bad 3B. Even when he was doing well defensively he was pretty bad at 3b.

 

There's just too many people going "so you are saying there's a chance," and digging into that wing and a prayer.

[AKCheesehead]

If I had to choose, I’d rather see a mediocre hitter who fields 3b well than see a slugger who plays an awful 3b.

[TJseven7]

If I had to choose, I’d rather see a mediocre hitter who fields 3b well than see a slugger who plays an awful 3b.

 

And those come cheap

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If I had to choose, I’d rather see a mediocre hitter who fields 3b well than see a slugger who plays an awful 3b.

 

Yay. Todd Frazier. Inspiring!

[AKCheesehead]

If I had to choose, I’d rather see a mediocre hitter who fields 3b well than see a slugger who plays an awful 3b.

 

Yay. Todd Frazier. Inspiring!

 

Lesser of two evils isn’t something I get excited about. But if it comes down to having to pick the poison (I’m still hoping something good works out) I’m not at all interested in having a butcher at the hot corner.

[BrewBalls]

If I had to choose, I’d rather see a mediocre hitter who fields 3b well than see a slugger who plays an awful 3b.

Kyle Seager says "Hi". just need Dipoto to eat $12 million and have Kyle agree his option remains a team one.

[TJseven7]

If I had to choose, I’d rather see a mediocre hitter who fields 3b well than see a slugger who plays an awful 3b.

 

Yay. Todd Frazier. Inspiring!

 

Yeah anything less than a 200 million dollar payroll isn't even trying.

[clancyphile]

If I had to choose, I’d rather see a mediocre hitter who fields 3b well than see a slugger who plays an awful 3b.

Kyle Seager says "Hi". just need Dipoto to eat $12 million and have Kyle agree his option remains a team one.

 

How about we take Seager, not alter his contract, and add Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield to the deal?