3rd Base Candidates

[82brewcrew82]

The problem is that we have too many positions where we are hoping a player we put out there today will maximize his strengths. Very few sure things in our lineup. And as I said in an earlier thread this is the best we can hope for. When it all works we are competitive and when it doesn't we are looking who we can sign for a good value for next year. But is being competitive enough? For most fans it probably is. But that doesn't bring a championship to Milwaukee. And that is really what everyone should want.

Define sure thing. Were Cain, Shaw and Chacin sure things in your mind going into last year? These are people, not robots, there are no sure things. If we had signed Smoak or Gyorko last off season would they have been a sure thing? I'd think we'd have been happy to sign either.

 

It didn't "all work" last year, far from it, and the team was on the verge of winning the wild card game. This notion that everything has to go exactly perfect for this team to win is just flat wrong. It's like people forget the rosters we rolled in with the last two years. There weren't many prognosticators predicting the Brewers in the playoffs either year but there they were.

 

Yes being competitive is enough. As we saw last year, the postseason is all about getting the right breaks, not necessarily which team is best on paper. The Dodgers have won how many consecutive division titles? They have spent tons of money and made all knids of splashy moves, what has that guarantee them? Nothing is the answer. Being competitive is the whole point.

 

This whole doom and gloom narrative by a handful of posters is just bizarre at best. When it comes to roster construction and obstacles they want to forget last year but when it comes to player acquisitions this year all they want to remember is last year. At some point folks are going to have to understand that this is how DS is going to run this team. Sure, he will make exceptions of truly special talents but if not, he is going to mine for undervalued players. He isn't going to overpay for mediocrity. Its going to be on those two extremes. I can understand being underwhelmed by what they have done this off season but some of these reactions are so short sighted.

[Soupbone]

I get what you are saying 82brewcrew. Yes this is how DS is going to build this team. Because of our payroll this is how he has to build this team. What I am saying is that MLB has a problem with payroll inequity at they don't care. As long as the Yankees and Dodgers and a handful of other teams are good they don't care. Not gloom and doom on my part. Just reality.

[82brewcrew82]

I get what you are saying 82brewcrew. Yes this is how DS is going to build this team. Because of our payroll this is how he has to build this team. What I am saying is that MLB has a problem with payroll inequity at they don't care. As long as the Yankees and Dodgers and a handful of other teams are good they don't care. Not gloom and doom on my part. Just reality.

I agree with you to some degree. A smaller market team has to be a bit more creative but I don't agree with the sentiment that we can't contend unless everything is perfect. We just have to have a front office that understands our constraints. Having said that, your comment was that "When it all works we are competitive and when it doesn't we are looking who we can sign for a good value for next year.". I just don't accept that premise as evidenced by last years team. DS is building in layers of depth and flexibility for a reason. That is how this years offense is going to work, through match-ups and flexibility. This is exactly how the pitching staff has been used the last couple of seasons and now you are going to see that play out with the offense. Probably not ideal but given the circumstances of this particular off season, that was the way DS determined to go about it and he did it in such a way that he can change course next off season should the circumstances dictate that change. We don't need everyone of these moves to work out extraordinarily well. We have the flexibility to add at third in season if that need arises. Who knows, how this all plays out but the the Brewers have the flexibility to deal with it and the doom and gloom garbage is way overblown in my opinion.

[TJseven7]

You would not have a 440PA split for the season. 350-400, 360-390, 370-380

Would be the max split dont you think? 4x162=648. 5x162=810.

 

I think we're done with 3b barring the "trade" Stearns said would likely get his 3b. Im certainly feeling better with Gyorko at 3b than Andujar involved in trade ideas to play 3b in 2020.

 

Wasn't merely counting 3b. I think Sogard could get some extra work at other positions and I think Gyorko could play 1b if Braun is hurt or if they face a LH in a DH game. Add PHs.

 

I set it at 440 on each for a little overflow because Gyorko will PH and Sogard won't be strictly 3b.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It should be reiterated that the Brewers aren't counting on career years from these low budget signings. They're looking for them to play up to the well established strong side of their splits.

[JohnBriggs12]

It should be reiterated that the Brewers aren't counting on career years from these low budget signings. They're looking for them to play up to the well established strong side of their splits.

 

There's some upside with Garcia, Narvaez, and Healy. Healy was a 3.5 WAR player over his first year and a half in the big leagues and still slugged 24 HR the next year in Seattle. If healthy playing in Miller Park, he has 30 HR potential. Narvaez is just coming into his own, and I take with a major grain of salt his framing issues catching for horrific staffs in Chicago and Seattle. Garcia was very highly regarded when he was younger, and while is progress hasn't been a straight line, the overall trend has been upward to solid major leaguer at this point.

 

Now as far as Sogard and Smoak are concerned, you just hope they provide professional AB's consistent of veteran journeymen they both are.. I personally have no hope for Gyorko, who peaked briefly for the Cardinals but before and since wasn't much. He's got holes that pitchers figured out.

 

My big concern is the pitching staff. I just don't see any bullpen depth or have any confidence there's a solid number 2 starter among the group they have. There's a few maybes like Hauser in the rotation or Peralta in the pen, but contending teams don't start out with a bunch of maybes. I'm still holding out hope they can get a salary dump veteran starter who's can stabilize things.

[brewerfan82]

Even just taking the three year splits on most of these guys (which include some pretty awful seasons) sets a pretty good bar for what to hope for.

 

 

And here are the outgoing players' 3-year splits, pretty comparable (for a lot less money):

 

[KeithStone53151]

If for whatever reason, the Cardinals go crazy and trade for Arenado...I love the idea of getting our hands on Carpenter. He's going to bounce back in a big way this year.

[wntrtxn21]

If for whatever reason, the Cardinals go crazy and trade for Arenado...I love the idea of getting our hands on Carpenter. He's going to bounce back in a big way this year.

 

No-no-no. He's due $56M (if he vests in 2020-2021) in the next 3 years. $39M in the next two years if he doesn't make his vesting numbers. Way too much money to take a risk with him.

[Eye Black]

Try to get Abraham Toro, the Astros #5 prospect, in a trade to at least have upside and controllability at 3B. He’s a switch hitter who had a 938 OPS at AAA as a 22 year old. He made the bigs for a bit but obviously is blocked by bregman

Before he was fired yesterday there was talk from Jeff Luhnow that the Astros might try to develop Toro as a catcher in the near future. Apparently he served as the team’s emergency catcher at the end of last season. I do think Toro would be an interesting target if the Astros were willing to deal him. Of course, I am not exactly sure who you would call to work out a trade with the Astros right now.

[markedman5]

Donaldson to Twins

 

[wibadgers23]

With the Twins set at 3B for the next few years, how about calling them up and seeing what it would take to get Luis Arraez? Not much power but an absolute on base machine and he’s young and controllable.

[sveumrules]

With the Twins set at 3B for the next few years, how about calling them up and seeing what it would take to get Luis Arraez? Not much power but an absolute on base machine and he’s young and controllable.

 

Arraez is a pretty intriguing player, but it looks like he's slated to be the Twins starting 2B at this point. Don't think they'd be very motivated to move him.

[brewcrewdue80]

BA posted their top 100 today(membership needed) got me to wonder how Monte Harrison was doing. Followed by checking the marlins mlb top 30 and seeing Isan Diaz and Jordan Yamamoto weren't there anymore due to MLB service time. While looking at the Marlins team page on BRef, they have a 3b by the name of Brian Anderson who has some solid things going for him. Hit more HRs last year in less PAs than season before. Had an .811 OPS for his 2019. Statcast he's around 90MPH exit velo(+) and a 21% K Rate(avg). More Launch last season(+), more barrels (+) and an 8.5% BB rate(Avg) plus the ever important age 26 turning 27 this season. He's hit RHP better than LHP. Has a near identical H/A .777/.773 OPS career and has a 30/40/30 spray chart all around the outfield. And a 3.8BWAR last season after 3.9 in 2018.

Now he doesn't have the eye-popping years in the minors to dream on him near playing AS baseball so I think you could maybe get away with less offered. It'd still hurt but they may want some insurance on SS and even 2b. That would put Turang atop the trade. They'd lose their 3b so you'd add Gyorko for that, and part with Erceg to be their future 3b.

The upside here is will Anderson improve on his LHP split, moving to Miller increase his Home OPS and being prime aged controlled. His Defensive stats improved for 3b from his 2018 and he's near a full season experience playing RF.

 

I'd say someone to look at with the 3-5WAR gain for an everyday 3b.

 

Why would Miami make this trade? They're clearly still rebuilding and Turang and Erceg pushes the timeline back to fit when they'd come out of it. Isan Diaz doesn't have the best history for maintaining solid batting slashes, but he does have flashes that a team may want to buy during the trade deadline or offseason this season or next. Marlins with Turang have another SS type prospect so they have the 2b depth to make such a move. Among the Marlins top 10 are 4 SPs all at AA level for 2019 so fits the narrative to a 2year window delay and reason to part with Anderson for Turang and Erceg that are about 2years to impact away.

[wntrtxn21]

BA posted their top 100 today(membership needed) got me to wonder how Monte Harrison was doing. Followed by checking the marlins mlb top 30 and seeing Isan Diaz and Jordan Yamamoto weren't there anymore due to MLB service time. While looking at the Marlins team page on BRef, they have a 3b by the name of Brian Anderson who has some solid things going for him. Hit more HRs last year in less PAs than season before. Had an .811 OPS for his 2019. Statcast he's around 90MPH exit velo(+) and a 21% K Rate(avg). More Launch last season(+), more barrels (+) and an 8.5% BB rate(Avg) plus the ever important age 26 turning 27 this season. He's hit RHP better than LHP. Has a near identical H/A .777/.773 OPS career and has a 30/40/30 spray chart all around the outfield. And a 3.8BWAR last season after 3.9 in 2018.

Now he doesn't have the eye-popping years in the minors to dream on him near playing AS baseball so I think you could maybe get away with less offered. It'd still hurt but they may want some insurance on SS and even 2b. That would put Turang atop the trade. They'd lose their 3b so you'd add Gyorko for that, and part with Erceg to be their future 3b.

The upside here is will Anderson improve on his LHP split, moving to Miller increase his Home OPS and being prime aged controlled. His Defensive stats improved for 3b from his 2018 and he's near a full season experience playing RF.

 

I'd say someone to look at with the 3-5WAR gain for an everyday 3b.

 

Why would Miami make this trade? They're clearly still rebuilding and Turang and Erceg pushes the timeline back to fit when they'd come out of it. Isan Diaz doesn't have the best history for maintaining solid batting slashes, but he does have flashes that a team may want to buy during the trade deadline or offseason this season or next. Marlins with Turang have another SS type prospect so they have the 2b depth to make such a move. Among the Marlins top 10 are 4 SPs all at AA level for 2019 so fits the narrative to a 2year window delay and reason to part with Anderson for Turang and Erceg that are about 2years to impact away.

 

Imo no team thinks Erceg is that great a prospect anymore. He hit .248/.306/.688 OPS at AA in 2018. Last year he hit .218/.305/.703 OPS at San Antonio. He would be a throw-in at best. I'm not sure the Marlins make Anderson available, but I think you're right that they would want Turang and more.

[brewcrewdue80]

That's true. But I will argue on Erceg's end that 2018 was full season and his 1st for AA. 2019 minus a 4game stint from A ball, was essentially a full first season at AAA.

Anderson's career OPS sits at .756 in the minors with a 1.0+ for AAA as he established himself in to the big leagues. Here was his MLB writeup in 2017 ranked 8th for Miami's prospects.

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50

Anderson made a name for himself during his college career at Arkansas, showing advanced feel to hit and power potential as well as the ability to play multiple positions. The Marlins, believing in his untapped offensive potential, made him a third-round pick in 2014. He scuffled offensively the following year at Class A Advanced Jupiter, but rebounded in 2016, as he earned an early-season promotion to Double-A Jacksonville and then hit a circuit-best five homers as part of an impressive Arizona Fall League campaign. He built on that success in 2017, earning a trip to the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game followed by a promotion to Triple-A New Orleans.

 

Anderson's right-handed swing has cleaned up nicely since signing, and he's long showed good feel for finding the barrel along with a selective approach. Tall and athletic in the box, he knows how to create leverage and extension through the hitting zone, giving him at least average power potential, with above-average raw pop to his pull side. After bouncing between the infield and outfield in college and then working at both second and third base during his professional debut, Anderson has manned the hot corner exclusively since the start of 2015. His hands, range and plus arm are all fits at the position.

 

Anderson's performance in the Fall League set the stage for a 2017 campaign that's seen him improve on all fronts against advanced competition. While there once was concern about whether he would hit for enough average and power to profile as a regular at the hot corner, Anderson has done his part to prove his detractors wrong with a career-best campaign in '17

 

That was his 2nd go at AA and 33gm great AAA show to run right on to Miami's ML team. Hasnt looked back. Erceg is pretty much at the same stage. And Im using Erceg as trade bait but I wonder with Stearns 3b moves thus far this offseason, if they are preparing for that reality before the end of 2020. Erceg probably never sniffs the top 100 again because he'd be promoted before that ranking could come out. Just going to remain positive on him. Grisham came outta nowhere after basically looking toast as a prospect.

[fleehaw]

I keep coming back to Lowrie. He fits the short term contract mold and the Brewers don't need him to play every day. And sliding Sogard into a utility role would be a great depth move.

 

Brewers get: Lowrie & Giles

Mets get: Arcia (to offset some salary if Urias' wrist is okay; bag of balls if not)

Blue Jays get: Smith & Supak/Brown/…

 

I couldn't find/think of any deals where a closer was dealt with 1 year of control left for comparison, but I figured Giles has between 5-10M of surplus value.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd still like to see Derek Dietrich signed to a minor league deal. I'm not sold on the Gyorko/Sogard platoon at 3B being productive, or even staying healthy. Dietrich started off scorching hot for the Reds last season, before falling off the planet in the second half. But he's a decent bounce-back candidate, and he's only entering his age 30 season. He'd also provide decent power from the left side of the plate, and has quite a bit of positional versatility (although he's not particularly good defensively at any of those positions).

 

Plus, the Cardinals hate the guy, which would bring an extra layer of fun.

[Warning Track Power]

Guys...

 

Are we really going to go into the season with Sogard/Gyorko as our 3B? I love Sogard as the new super-expensive Hernan Perez, but I don't love him as the strong side of a platoon at 3B. Gyorko is a total unknown. Is it time to give up on the hope of someone coming to save us from this platoon?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Guys...

 

Are we really going to go into the season with Sogard/Gyorko as our 3B? I love Sogard as the new super-expensive Hernan Perez, but I don't love him as the strong side of a platoon at 3B. Gyorko is a total unknown. Is it time to give up on the hope of someone coming to save us from this platoon?

 

Unless someone steps up for Hader, or the Mariners decide to salary dump Seager, yeah.

[benji]

This is my one major concern going into the 2020 season. I think the other offensive spots are good enough to contend. Hopefully someone outperforms whats expected.

[KeithStone53151]

Guys...

 

Are we really going to go into the season with Sogard/Gyorko as our 3B? I love Sogard as the new super-expensive Hernan Perez, but I don't love him as the strong side of a platoon at 3B. Gyorko is a total unknown. Is it time to give up on the hope of someone coming to save us from this platoon?

 

Usually you aren't going to have an all-star caliber player at every position. Those guys as a platoon project to have pretty solid production. We can also potentially add 3b at the deadline. It's pretty likely at this point we open with that platoon.

[TURBO]

Offensively, I'm going to predict that this platoon does not perform well enough to remain for the entire season. Somehow, something else will need to be done.

 

I just can't believe that we are going into the season with that as our 3B situation. Almost seems like we are just throwing in the towel on 3B, and hoping every other position works out.

 

Now that it looks like Arcia might be playing a lot more SS than originally planned, this is concerning.

[TURBO]

 

Usually you aren't going to have an all-star caliber player at every position.

 

True, but look at our infield, offensively, I think Hiura is the only position that we know what we have. SS is now up in the air, 3B looks like a nightmare, and 1B could be troublesome too with Smoak penciled in for at least half the starts.

 

Hiura is the only bright spot in that infield, everything else is a complete and total crap shoot.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Usually you aren't going to have an all-star caliber player at every position.

 

True, but look at our infield, offensively, I think Hiura is the only position that we know what we have. SS is now up in the air, 3B looks like a nightmare, and 1B could be troublesome too with Smoak penciled in for at least half the starts.

 

Hiura is the only bright spot in that infield, everything else is a complete and total crap shoot.

 

I'm going to nitpick and call the bolded a bit of an understatement, but otherwise I generally see and agree with your point. SS is unfortunate as we had a real shot at solid production there until Urias got hurt. 1b I think will be super solid with Braun/Smoak. Probably no all-star, but that combination could easily yield borderline all-star production in tandem. 3b is certainly our weakest position, but it's probably better than most think. Before the Urias injury, we basically had 4 guys competing for playing time at 2 spots. The competition would likely bring the very very best out of at least 2 of the players. Do you think Gyorko is content coasting through the year, hitting decently in his AB against lefties, which at best would result in a minor league deal from someone next year? Or do you think we're going to see the very best version of him show up in camp and try to win the 3b job outright so he can potentially parlay that into a multi-year deal next year? My money is on the latter. That same thought process can be applied to all 4 guys with slight variables.