3rd Base Candidates

[A Swing and A Drive]

I would have prefered the Brewers add Castellanos as a free agent for a corner outfield spot instead of Garcia, personally.

 

That would have made a Healy/Sogard 3B situation much more palatable, IMO.

 

Personally, I'd rather have Castellanos than Donaldson for the next 4 seasons, so I think some team is going to get a bargin.

[Brewcrewin07]

I still believe that the Brewers opening day 3rd baseman will be Eric Sogard. Truly believe they are done making moves, at least as far as anything big goes.

[SRB]

Honestly they should just give Donaldson five years and get a deal done. I think it's reasonable to expect him to be an asset for at least three years, and that is our window before Yelich leaves. I'm perfectly fine writing off the first two post-Yelich seasons (2023-2024) as rebuilding years.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I still believe that the Brewers opening day 3rd baseman will be Eric Sogard. Truly believe they are done making moves, at least as far as anything big goes.

 

I'd gladly take that bet.

[wntrtxn21]

Honestly they should just give Donaldson five years and get a deal done. I think it's reasonable to expect him to be an asset for at least three years, and that is our window before Yelich leaves. I'm perfectly fine writing off the first two post-Yelich seasons (2023-2024) as rebuilding years.

 

You might be fine writing off $50-55M, but I seriously doubt MA would want to do that. I'm still holding out hope for a big trade or a one year fix and then a huge signing next year.

[JohnBriggs12]

I still believe that the Brewers opening day 3rd baseman will be Eric Sogard. Truly believe they are done making moves, at least as far as anything big goes.

 

I'd gladly take that bet.

 

I think Darvish might just be the Cubs opening day starter instead of Lester this year, so Sogard might be in the lineup somewhere.

 

I think posters are prematurely dismissing Healy, in large part because of his defense. He wasn't that bad as a rookie when he played almost exclusively at 3B but after playing more at 1B in 2017 and spending almost no time at third in 2018, when he did play there, he was bad. I think if he concentrates primarily at 3B, it might help him and remember the Brewers move their weakest infielder to the least likely spot a ball is hit. If he's healthy, he's got a solid power bat.

[yoshii8]

At this point, I'd be ok with a Todd Frazier signing. He's a solid player who hit's both LHP and RHP pretty well, and is a solid defender.

 

I'm hoping DS finds someone who's more of a long term solution, but for some reason, I don't see that happening.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Derek Dietrich might be an interesting buy-low candidate for a minor-league deal. Bats lefty, can play all over the field (albeit not very well according to defensive metrics), and while his batting average cratered in the second half of the season last year, he did hit 19 HRs.

[TURBO]

I seriously hope that we don't settle for a guy like Frazier. That would make me sad.

[wntrtxn21]

I still believe that the Brewers opening day 3rd baseman will be Eric Sogard. Truly believe they are done making moves, at least as far as anything big goes.

 

I'd gladly take that bet.

 

I think Darvish might just be the Cubs opening day starter instead of Lester this year, so Sogard might be in the lineup somewhere.

 

I think posters are prematurely dismissing Healy, in large part because of his defense. He wasn't that bad as a rookie when he played almost exclusively at 3B but after playing more at 1B in 2017 and spending almost no time at third in 2018, when he did play there, he was bad. I think if he concentrates primarily at 3B, it might help him and remember the Brewers move their weakest infielder to the least likely spot a ball is hit. If he's healthy, he's got a solid power bat.

 

I think you called it right about Darvish over Lester for the Cubs. You're right about Sogard if Darvish starts. Sogard hits .278/.458 against him. In that case you may see Sogard start at SS, depending on who Stearns gets to start at third. I really disagree about Healy though. Imo Healy stays in AAA unless needed and would only be an emergency fill-in at 3B. He has been pretty much a train wreck both offensively and with the glove at 3B. His last two years with the bat: .235/.277 and .237/.289.... With the glove -33 & -22 at third base.

[brewerhuman]

I agree. I understand the appeal of the Urias and Smoak deals as creative ways to potentially bank on great values at positions where production wasn't fantastic. Even getting Narvaez was a solid-to-good pickup, albeit a downgrade from Grandal. At least you could say they made out reasonably well there in hoping to replace most of what they chose to let go.

 

Signing Frazier would feel like neither of those things, to me. In my opinion, his upside isn't high enough to just let him have the spot at hot corner after losing Moustakas. It would very much feel like they just settled for a comfortable option when they could have used their capital on Seager, Donaldson, or [insert player acquired in Hader trade].

 

This may also just be me, but I think all the moves to increase the bottom line depth make more sense if they are willing to take a risk on a higher tier third baseman. I don't know.

[TJseven7]

This may also just be me, but I think all the moves to increase the bottom line depth make more sense if they are willing to take a risk on a higher tier third baseman. I don't know.

 

See and I'm the complete opposite. I think all the moves to increase the bottom line depth signal that they know they can't simply replace Grandal and Moose. They are trying to gain in areas where they were poor to help cushion the blow of not having the same talent at the top.

 

Really when you look at the raw numbers they are an adequate 3b away from being very similar (offensively) to where they were last year assuming no one pulls a Shaw or Aguilar on us. Grandal's loss paired with Narvaez is about a 30 point obp loss. Hiura is better than Moose so we aren't really replacing Moose at 3b. We are replacing half a year of Hiura and Shaw mashed together. Shaw was soo bad that those numbers aren't daunting to replace. Instead of being 3b plus with Moose they are 2b plus plus with Hiura. Right now, (again assuming they sign an adequate 3b to split time with Sogard) they are better than they were to start last year when they had Shaw Aguilar Moose in heavy rotation and worse than they were when they had Moose Grandal and Hiura playing together down the stretch. It's basically the same, but more consistent over the full 162.

 

I continue to believe all the metrics/analytics MKE plays by is about thresholds. They are trying to get to a certain number as inexpensively as possible. They know at that number they will make the playoffs (or be right on the edge of them) year in and year out. A lot of people want an all in and I'm sure MKE would love to do it too, but it takes the right guy on the right deal to allow for a big push that isn't fraught with risk on a level of cap implosion.

 

DS has even hinted at this in a quote someone posted in December. It seemed like he wanted Moose back but the deal got too "robust." That the new plan was to fortify the team with small incremental upgrades to get to the same place they were before. We are run by an adaptable group of genius'. If one door closes they open another one. They take the path of least resistance (risk) to their goals. Stupid aside but it's true, I play in very deep dynasty FF leagues and the only guys I respect at all in those leagues are the guys who are able to alter their path as many times as it takes to get to where they are going. Year in and year out, different way. Plan A B C D E F all the way to Z. MKE does that on the largest stage. They deserve our trust in how they are piecing this together.

 

This team AS IT SITS is very close to where it was last year offensively. Urias coming of age and using his contact tool to infuse a solid OBP bump over Arcia puts this team right on its marks. Cain rebounding to a 360 obp would do the same. (and not only was he hurt but his plate discipline was garbage last year). Garcia ticks up at all and that's another way to get the gap that's currently left. Sogard being what he was in 2017 and 2019 would absolutely do the trick by itself as well. That's 4 possible gain spots. There are areas where MKE has already gained. The depth is stronger than Perez Saladino Spangs Aguilar with 1 adequate 3b addition.

 

I'll say it again, I have next to ZERO concern about 3b right now. The pitching can not flame out the way it did early last year. They need more arm depth. Easiest path to that is investing in the pen. Donaldson would be huge risk (age) and huge money. Not needed, it's risk laden overkill. Many options would be fine if they are cheap. Holt's OBP would do the trick just fine. Flores if the knees check out would do the trick just fine. Frazier would be fine but I wonder the cost. Seager Lowrie are more than enough but come with questions about how their overpaid deals are balanced out.

 

The depth in MKE is very solid. The floor is up. There is upside talent on top of that. Arms depth is the big question, not 3b. Pointing at 3b over and over is thinking far too linear.

[brewerhuman]

I don't disagree with what you've said here. I never wanted to convey that I thought third base was the only place they needed to invest in. It should be both, because doing so in both spots could push them ahead of where they were the last few years and they wouldn't have to rely on scorching hot Septembers to make the postseason. Could the additions of bullpen arms and/or Seager/Donaldson not work? Of course. But if those kind of upgrades do work when you're well under the spending limits you've set before and you can maybe pull it off, it's really tough to sell me on the idea of Todd Frazier.

 

I don't think Donaldson or Seager is going all in, and that's where I'm coming from. I think we all just want to see a team get over that hurdle. The higher floor helps, but I think we're all just trying to find an area where an additional push can be made. And we're in the third basemen thread, so...

[TJseven7]

I don't think Donaldson or Seager is going all in, and that's where I'm coming from.

 

That's the part where we disagree. The 25-28 mil on Donaldson over the next 3 is pushing this team to the top of their spending capabilities. (if you assume they can't/won't blow past last year numbers) Seager's 18 19 15(vesting question) puts you 1 piece from the same mark. Guys are going to slip into arby and be worth their arby cost. Narvaez Hader are going to increase in cost and Braun's money will get eaten up quickly. I think either of those 3Bs pushes us right up against maxed out with little flexibility in the next 3 years. I don't see that gain being enough to offset the looming problems they have with the pitching staff that I don't see the farm being able to completely remedy until 2021 at the earliest. The pen right now is scary and the depth of starters is teetering on the edge as it currently sits. With the pen being where it is, pushing Suter and/or Peralta into the rotation would risk melt down in the early season. Just like last year and unlike 2018. I don't like that, not 1 bit.

 

I don't think the gain Donaldson should provide at 3b is enough to allow for that level of weakness in our pitching staff. I don't think Seager moves the needle enough to be considered over scrub options. As I said, I believe there are thresholds in their metrics and gains beyond a certain point lose impact and come at a high financial cost. I believe they are constantly trying to walk a tight rope in a sweet spot where money wins impact all cross paths. They aren't exactly trying to be the BEST team in baseball. They are trying to be a playoff team with a combination of pieces that could steal a WS title. Basically, they are the Royals. It seems to reverberate all the way through the organization. The way they spend, the way they draft, the pieces they acquire. There's a type/expectation in the SP adds they make. Right now, from the looks of it the pitching staff depth is the soft part. That can be fixed, without giving up long term deals and without blocking anything the farm can add in 2021. It's the most flexible cost effective way and adding a big ticket 3b ties their hands enough that 2020 becomes murky and 2021 becomes farm dependent.

 

I don't think that's the 3 year window idea they have.

[superfly]

I don't think Donaldson or Seager is going all in, and that's where I'm coming from.

 

That's the part where we disagree. The 25-28 mil on Donaldson over the next 3 is pushing this team to the top of their spending capabilities. (if you assume they can't/won't blow past last year numbers) Seager's 18 19 15(vesting question) puts you 1 piece from the same mark. Guys are going to slip into arby and be worth their arby cost. Narvaez Hader are going to increase in cost and Braun's money will get eaten up quickly. I think either of those 3Bs pushes us right up against maxed out with little flexibility in the next 3 years. I don't see that gain being enough to offset the looming problems they have with the pitching staff that I don't see the farm being able to completely remedy until 2021 at the earliest. The pen right now is scary and the depth of starters is teetering on the edge as it currently sits. With the pen being where it is, pushing Suter and/or Peralta into the rotation would risk melt down in the early season. Just like last year and unlike 2018. I don't like that, not 1 bit.

 

I don't think the gain Donaldson should provide at 3b is enough to allow for that level of weakness in our pitching staff. I don't think Seager moves the needle enough to be considered over scrub options. As I said, I believe there are thresholds in their metrics and gains beyond a certain point lose impact and come at a high financial cost. I believe they are constantly trying to walk a tight rope in a sweet spot where money wins impact all cross paths. They aren't exactly trying to be the BEST team in baseball. They are trying to be a playoff team with a combination of pieces that could steal a WS title. Basically, they are the Royals. It seems to reverberate all the way through the organization. The way they spend, the way they draft, the pieces they acquire. There's a type/expectation in the SP adds they make. Right now, from the looks of it the pitching staff depth is the soft part. That can be fixed, without giving up long term deals and without blocking anything the farm can add in 2021. It's the most flexible cost effective way and adding a big ticket 3b ties their hands enough that 2020 becomes murky and 2021 becomes farm dependent.

 

I don't think that's the 3 year window idea they have.

 

The middle ground here is Castellanos. There is theoretically decent amounts of upside left and the price tag is considerably less than Donaldson. That’s where I’m a bit frustrated, it’s not that we’re not “buying” Donaldson, it’s that we’re seemingly content in an entirely mediocre 33 year old mini-mite with a career sub 250 batting average at the hot corner. I really like Sogard as our utility, but starting? Gross. It’s like Ted Thompson drafting low ceiling defenders in the 6th and 7th round every year and expecting them to be quality starters.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think Donaldson or Seager is going all in, and that's where I'm coming from.

 

That's the part where we disagree. The 25-28 mil on Donaldson over the next 3 is pushing this team to the top of their spending capabilities. (if you assume they can't/won't blow past last year numbers) Seager's 18 19 15(vesting question) puts you 1 piece from the same mark. Guys are going to slip into arby and be worth their arby cost. Narvaez Hader are going to increase in cost and Braun's money will get eaten up quickly. I think either of those 3Bs pushes us right up against maxed out with little flexibility in the next 3 years. I don't see that gain being enough to offset the looming problems they have with the pitching staff that I don't see the farm being able to completely remedy until 2021 at the earliest. The pen right now is scary and the depth of starters is teetering on the edge as it currently sits. With the pen being where it is, pushing Suter and/or Peralta into the rotation would risk melt down in the early season. Just like last year and unlike 2018. I don't like that, not 1 bit.

 

I don't think the gain Donaldson should provide at 3b is enough to allow for that level of weakness in our pitching staff. I don't think Seager moves the needle enough to be considered over scrub options. As I said, I believe there are thresholds in their metrics and gains beyond a certain point lose impact and come at a high financial cost. I believe they are constantly trying to walk a tight rope in a sweet spot where money wins impact all cross paths. They aren't exactly trying to be the BEST team in baseball. They are trying to be a playoff team with a combination of pieces that could steal a WS title. Basically, they are the Royals. It seems to reverberate all the way through the organization. The way they spend, the way they draft, the pieces they acquire. There's a type/expectation in the SP adds they make. Right now, from the looks of it the pitching staff depth is the soft part. That can be fixed, without giving up long term deals and without blocking anything the farm can add in 2021. It's the most flexible cost effective way and adding a big ticket 3b ties their hands enough that 2020 becomes murky and 2021 becomes farm dependent.

 

I don't think that's the 3 year window idea they have.

 

The middle ground here is Castellanos. There is theoretically decent amounts of upside left and the price tag is considerably less than Donaldson. That’s where I’m a bit frustrated, it’s not that we’re not “buying” Donaldson, it’s that we’re seemingly content in an entirely mediocre 33 year old mini-mite with a career sub 250 batting average at the hot corner. I really like Sogard as our utility, but starting? Gross. It’s like Ted Thompson drafting defense in the 6th and 7th round every year and expecting them to be quality starters.

 

Brace for the "but Castellanos isn't a 3B" posts in 5 ... 4 ... 3 ...

 

I get it, he isn't a good 3B. But you know what ... Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas aren't 2B, and this team made that work successfully. I believe that with shifting and late-game substitutions, they can make Castellanos's defense work too. The opportunity to get a 27-year-old bat who is primed for a Yelich-like breakout (in my opinion, of course) would justify it.

[tmwiese55]

I'm very skeptical of trusting Castellanos as your regular 3B. But, just adding to the conversation that next year Braun is likely gone which frees up lots of OF/1B starts for Castellanos. Or once an injury happens to any 1B/OF this season it allows him to play an easier spot and your utility guy like Sogard goes to 3b. Obviously DH could be here by the end of his contract as well. Just saying you could squint your eyes and find a way to make it work or justify it if the price tag isn't too brutal.

 

I don't think this has much of a chance to happening here this offseason, essentially I think Garcia took the spot that potentially could've gone to Castellanos. Seems to me all the big money things they may have tried for ended up way out of range and went plan B as best they could. And I'd guess they're still exploring trade market for a 3B with Frazier sitting there if needed.

[wntrtxn21]

Let's just put the Castellanos at 3B to rest. Nobody knows IF he would consent to play third (He refused to play 1B for the Tigers). He's stated he doesn't like playing there and wants to play the OF. Imo the only way he would even consider 3B is if he couldn't get any offers to play the OF. That's not going to happen. Remember he would be playing thirdbase for at least 7 innings. All the shifting in the world can't hide him because teams are going to pull the ball against most of the Crew's starters. The Brewers already tried this type of experiment and it was a disaster. If Stearns wanted a 3B as horrendous as Castellanos, he'd just put Braun there and save a whole lot of money.

[TJseven7]

 

The middle ground here is Castellanos. There is theoretically decent amounts of upside left and the price tag is considerably less than Donaldson. That’s where I’m a bit frustrated, it’s not that we’re not “buying” Donaldson, it’s that we’re seemingly content in an entirely mediocre 33 year old mini-mite with a career sub 250 batting average at the hot corner. I really like Sogard as our utility, but starting? Gross. It’s like Ted Thompson drafting low ceiling defenders in the 6th and 7th round every year and expecting them to be quality starters.

 

There is no need for a middle ground. Even that guy is going to be quite expensive. Try looking at the lineup 1-8 instead of looking at what you expect from a 3B. Also don't use AVG. Moose hit .255 in MKE. As for the analogy. Playing Castellanos at 3b is exactly like TT drafting non-athletes on defense. Sure he technically can do it, but don't ask for anything better from him than being a body. If we also want to play that game it's like trying to hide Jabari Parker's defense.

 

Brace for the "but Castellanos isn't a 3B" posts in 5 ... 4 ... 3 ...

 

Well it's the truth. So... sorry that's a bummer?

 

I'm very skeptical of trusting Castellanos as your regular 3B. But, just adding to the conversation that next year Braun is likely gone which frees up lots of OF/1B starts for Castellanos.

 

Which one of our OFs plays infield in that scenario though? Yelich is a GG LF, Cain no, Garcia doesn't and Castellanos shouldn't. Honestly, I think the whole Braun to 1b is just being done to get the most they can out of a bad situation. I highly doubt MKE wants to spend over 8 mil at 1B combined. It's a very easy position to platoon into a big offensive producer on the cheap. Why pay someone as a higher defensive spectrum position only to move them to a position that has next to no market value? If Smoak is on the team in 2021 I expect Braun gone and a run of the mill RH power 1b to platoon with him. Not a position MKE can afford to spend on.

 

Castellanos is a stud as a batter. There's no doubting that. However, the guys complete garbage in the field. He's basically LF only. He's a terrible 3b and he's worse than Santana in RF. His defensive position is DH. He's been worse in the OF than JD Martinez.

[superfly]

Moose may have hit .255, but in a season and a half he also hit somewhere between 40-50 home runs and another 50ish doubles. Sogard hit 3 (and 13 last year) home runs and about 40 doubles. That’s using his only two good years of his career.

 

Castellanos could move to LF if need be when braun is gone.

[TJseven7]

Moose may have hit .255, but in a season and a half he also hit somewhere between 40-50 home runs and another 50ish doubles. Sogard hit 3 (and 13 last year) home runs and about 40 doubles. That’s using his only two good years of his career.

 

Castellanos could move to LF if need be when braun is gone.

 

Trust me I know the SLG OPS difference. You were the one who pointed out AVG.

 

As for Castellanos in LF. Yeah, so is Garcia Yelich and none play CF. None of them sub for Cain in CF. Playing a split OF/1b in an OF that's 3 corner OFs deep is one thing. Playing 3 OFs adequate starts at 2 positions is quite another. Pre Garcia sure, post Garcia no.

[ntretts]

What does everyone think of Eduardo Escobar? Posted a 3.7 fWAR for AZ last year and has two contract years remaining for $14.5 million total. Switch hitter and hits for some pop. He'd be my ideal target for third base, but I'm not sure Arizona wants to trade him and his affordable contract.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

What does everyone think of Eduardo Escobar? Posted a 3.7 fWAR for AZ last year and has two contract years remaining for $14.5 million total. Switch hitter and hits for some pop. He'd be my ideal target for third base, but I'm not sure Arizona wants to trade him and his affordable contract.

Unless we are giving up Hiura idk why they’d be remotely interested in moving him right now. He seems like a deadline addition at best, they seem to want and try and compete this year with the Bumgarner signing.

[MNBrew]

I'd love Eduardo Escobar. If Stearns does pull some sort of "big" move (thinking in terms of a trade), I think he's the caliber of player we'd get back, though not necessarily Escobar himself. Cost wouldn't be small, but I don't see Hiura being the type of piece we'd give up to get him.

[clancyphile]

What does everyone think of Eduardo Escobar? Posted a 3.7 fWAR for AZ last year and has two contract years remaining for $14.5 million total. Switch hitter and hits for some pop. He'd be my ideal target for third base, but I'm not sure Arizona wants to trade him and his affordable contract.

 

Brewers get:

3B/SS Eduardo Escobar

LHP Robbie Ray

 

Diamondbacks get:

SS Brice Turang

OF Tristan Lutz

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-20791/