3rd Base Candidates

[clancyphile]

At this point, Brock Holt might make sense. Yeah not much power, but versatile with good on base skills and has contributed to winning teams.

 

I like the idea. He's got a good bat... might be a nice choice for leadoff.

 

3b: Holt

2b: Hiura

lf: Yelich

rf: Garcia

c: Narvaez

1b: Smoak

cf: Cain

ss: Urias

pitcher

 

He could be had for 3 years, $13.5 million - and add a mutual option for a fourth year with a $3 million buyout to defer some cash.

 

Yeah, expensive for possibly another Sogard-type bat, but he has an OPS+ of 105 over the last two years, and he is almost as versatile as Hernan Perez. A .370 OBP for the leadoff spot isn't bad. I don't need power, I just want him on base for Hiura-Yelich.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I can't see Stearns throwing 3 years at a 32 year old .715 OPS platoon bat. I could see bringing the guy in as a one year stop gap, but I just don't see a reason to go multi year with someone like Holt.

 

I like his versatility, and he takes a walk. I don't like his lack of power. He's an interesting name... I just don't like the idea of multi year deals for slap hitting platoon guys like Holt. He would, and should be easily replaceable in '21.

[clancyphile]

I can't see Stearns throwing 3 years at a 32 year old .715 OPS platoon bat. I could see bringing the guy in as a one year stop gap, but I just don't see a reason to go multi year with someone like Holt.

 

I like his versatility, and he takes a walk. I don't like his lack of power. He's an interesting name... I just don't like the idea of multi year deals for slap hitting platoon guys like Holt. He would, and should be easily replaceable in '21.

 

Opening day, he'd be leading off, but by the end of the first season, he's the #8 hitter, and if he has that .370ish OBP, and to be honest, the Crew may need a longer-term stopgap if Erceg doesn't put it together.

[reillymcshane]

Josh Donaldson has reportedly set his price at 4-years/$110M.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/josh-donaldson-reportedly-sets-asking-price.html

[clancyphile]

Josh Donaldson has reportedly set his price at 4-years/$110M.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/josh-donaldson-reportedly-sets-asking-price.html

 

Pass.

 

The dealbreaker for me is the four years.

[brewcrewdue80]

That brings me back to Castellanos is waiting on Donaldson's contract to set his contract. 4/80 for Donaldson would leave to think 5/60mil for Castellanos being younger and not coming with the value Donaldson has. Yes 40% less. Talking 1.5WAR vs 6WAR. It may even be something like 4/48 or 5/55 longer term. Now putting that down I think I gotta bump Donaldson to4/96 up to 4/104. Which maybe bumps Castellanos say 5/65 or 4/52mil.

Unless Castellanos signs before Donaldson, I fully believe we will end up with one or the other. The big Domino is when JD signs.

 

 

Josh Donaldson has reportedly set his price at 4-years/$110M.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/josh-donaldson-reportedly-sets-asking-price.html

 

Kinda close. 1.5mil more a year than the highest I was expecting. For Castellanos now that must make his next contract look like 4/66mil.

 

Donaldson in terms of value he's brought has been worth 40+mil 5 of the last 7seasons with 2019 coming in at 39.4mil

The Brewers could fit this contract. But it likely means you can only afford Hader this season and have to part with him for beyond 2020 to do so.

Cain had a 145mil total value his prior 5years prior to signing a 16mil/yr contract for 5years. That was a 29mil avg value avg.

Donaldson has a 264.5 total value the last 6 years. 44mil avg value.

 

 

Out of all the FA signings and worrying about return on value, I'd say Donaldson is the least concerned one to do so. Besides Cain's deal during a depressed not spending market. I'd literally give Donaldson a contract of 3/90 mil as mentioned above and to meet his demands put an option of 20mil the 4th year that automatically triggers if the Brewers played in the WS any of the 3years. Don't you think his bat would play up in Milw vs Atl? Play up playing NL Central parks vs the NL East parks? Play up vs the Pitchers in the Central vs who he faced in 2019 in the East? A .900 OPS middle of order bat who fits everything you want in profile for a 3b. Considering he's been providing a 40+mil value in avg the last 6 years, you're getting you're value back in a matter of 3 of 4 seasons played. There's zero risk of him providing a negative value in any of the 4 seasons. Whoever jumps in and gets him signed won't regret a thing....Unless you're a team in higher tiers of luxury tax already.

[TURBO]

There's zero risk of him providing a negative value in any of the 4 seasons. Whoever jumps in and gets him signed won't regret a thing....

 

Ummmm, you can believe that if you want, but there is always a chance of injury, and at his age, the odds of him not having an injury the next 4 years is pretty slim. The key will be avoiding a serious injury, which is for from zero risk.

[TJseven7]

He could be had for 3 years, $13.5 million - and add a mutual option for a fourth year with a $3 million buyout to defer some cash.

 

He fits very well. However, being a 10 HR guy (if he played a full season of ABs) doesn't really wow anyone. He's hasn't been very good at 3b when given a lot of usage there. Super utility but really this guy is the market inefficiency. Light hitting AVG OBP guy who is defensively neutral everywhere but 2b. I mean everywhere.

 

However, he's not the type you lock up long term unless you can get him at laughably low price tag. He's the type you plug in at 3b for this year because currently they are low on OBP from Grandal and if Cain doesn't rebound the team OBP will surely drop about 30 points. He fixes that.

 

He's a stop gap though and it has nothing to do with Erceg. 2021 free agency 3b will likely be revisited and you don't need a guy like Holt kicking around at 4.5 mil especially since I'm sure you could sign him 4.5/1 for each of the next 3 years (one at a time) if you wanted to.

 

We had 392 AB from Perez Spangs and Saladino. If Arcia lost 200 ABs and Urias/Holt/Sogard were taking up the 1200 AB that Hiura Shaw Arcia Spangs Saladino and Perez took up MKE would more than make up the lost production at 3b. Adequate results at 3b and 600 upgraded ABs at SS and depth would do the trick.

 

The commitment to Holt is just too aggressive. Asdrubal just got 2.5/1. Holt isn't topping 3/1.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

There's zero risk of him providing a negative value in any of the 4 seasons. Whoever jumps in and gets him signed won't regret a thing....Unless you're a team in higher tiers of luxury tax already.

 

 

There's never zero risk in a high dollar signing. There's higher risk in multi-year signings. There's a higher risk yet for a guy of Donaldson's age.

 

I'm not even saying it's not potentially worth it, but saying it's "zero risk" is false. A team that commits 110 million to Donaldson for four years is assuming a fair amount of risk.

[wallus]

I am guessing a team could sign him for four years with the assumption that you might need to move him to first for the last couple. The price is high but so far most of the contracts have beat estimates.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

There's zero risk of him providing a negative value in any of the 4 seasons. Whoever jumps in and gets him signed won't regret a thing....Unless you're a team in higher tiers of luxury tax already.

 

 

There's never zero risk in a high dollar signing. There's higher risk in multi-year signings. There's a higher risk yet for a guy of Donaldson's age.

 

I'm not even saying it's not potentially worth it, but saying it's "zero risk" is false. A team that commits 110 million to Donaldson for four years is assuming a fair amount of risk.

 

you both got caught up on the zero risk and didn't finish the sentence. zero risk of him providing negative value. To clarify, if he gets any amount of playing time on the field it will accumulate positively. Zero Risk that he will have Negative WAR in a a season. Injured for an Entire season? That's 0.0War. Not negative. He's never missed a full season due to injury since becoming an everyday ML player. His lowest games played in 2018 of 52games, he still provided over 10mil in value.

 

In a nutshell, for 110mil in 4 seasons, based on his career, Donaldson is going to earn and exceed that dollar cost in value.

 

Meanwhile a guy like Kyle Seager being paid 19 and 19.5 mil the last two season and at minimum being owed 20mil avg the next two seasons has to meet his career avg to reach the value he is being paid on his contract. He is not the hitter JD is sans his one career season that occurred in 2016. Donaldson is at Nelson Cruz statcast levels. And Holy Cow Cruz is off the charts all of the last 5 years for somebody that is 5years older than Donaldson.

 

Why do we have to be so sure that age regression happens to everyone until that player exceeds the expectations. Especially when the player has a consistent history of being great? It's something different when they have abnormal seasons that don't fit with their normal tendency. Or at least showing signs that they are regressing. Donaldson is not showing any signs of regression. If there is one it's that he K'd about 3% more often than his career avg that sits at 20%. He is carrying a higher avg of walk pct than career avg each of the last 4 seasons. If you're going to make a surprise splash against the norm, he would be the one to do it on.

[brewerfan82]

you both got caught up on the zero risk and didn't finish the sentence. zero risk of him providing negative value. To clarify, if he gets any amount of playing time on the field it will accumulate positively. Zero Risk that he will have Negative WAR in a a season. Injured for an Entire season? That's 0.0War. Not negative. He's never missed a full season due to injury since becoming an everyday ML player. His lowest games played in 2018 of 52games, he still provided over 10mil in value.

Your overall point is valid, Donaldson's likely to outplay his contract, however you're playing with fire when you speak in absolutes. You state the 0.0 WAR on a lost season isn't negative value, but you leave out that it's actually -$27.5M value because of his projected contract. You even go on to mention that just two years ago he had injury issues and only provided $10M worth of value, which would also be a loss value-wise. Again, your overall point that over 4 years he's likely to outproduce that contract when he's produced $39.4-69.7M worth of value every single full season of his career is a good one, you're just going to rub people the wrong way when you speak in absolutes and ignore the possibility of injuries, especially on an aging player who will be 37 years old at the end of a 4 year contract.

 

 

Why do we have to be so sure that age regression happens to everyone until that player exceeds the expectations. Especially when the player has a consistent history of being great? It's something different when they have abnormal seasons that don't fit with their normal tendency. Or at least showing signs that they are regressing. Donaldson is not showing any signs of regression. If there is one it's that he K'd about 3% more often than his career avg that sits at 20%. He is carrying a higher avg of walk pct than career avg each of the last 4 seasons. If you're going to make a surprise splash against the norm, he would be the one to do it on.

There hasn't been a single player in sports history that age regression hasn't happened to. The question is when will it happen and Donaldson is definitely entering the "you better consider the possibility he may start to regress" part of his career. He has a ton of room for regression where he's still going to be a valuable player even with that contract, but you start mixing regression with the potential for injuries as a player ages and it's a real possibility that he doesn't reach that $110M worth of value over the course of his contract. It may not be likely, but it is definitely not "zero risk." It sucks for the player, but a team just can't throw that kind of money at a player without entering that into the equation.

 

All that said, I'd be *ecstatic* if the Brewers surprise everyone and grab him, even for 4/yrs $110M

[reillymcshane]

Albert Pujols provided bWAR of 4.0 and 3.0 during his age 34/35 season. He has since provided a combined bWAR of 0.3 in his last four seasons.

 

The big issue with older players is they can get a little slower, lose a hair of quickness, and then start being affected health-wise by a lifetime of playing the game. It can lead to - at times - a quick decline in production.

 

I'm not saying Donaldson will suffer this - just that it is much more likely to happen to an aging player like himself.

[brewcrewdue80]

Albert Pujols provided bWAR of 4.0 and 3.0 during his age 34/35 season. He has since provided a combined bWAR of 0.3 in his last four seasons.

 

The big issue with older players is they can get a little slower, lose a hair of quickness, and then start being affected health-wise by a lifetime of playing the game. It can lead to - at times - a quick decline in production.

 

I'm not saying Donaldson will suffer this - just that it is much more likely to happen to an aging player like himself.

 

But this is a 4year contract on a player a full year healthy going in to his age 34 season. Pujols suffered a set back for age 33 that he never returned to the player he had been prior. He still gave LA 7.5 BWAR for ages 34,35,36 before falling off the cliff age 37. Amazingly Pujols will make more money than Donaldson the next 2 seasons. Pujols' age decline is actually considered one of the most extreme performance fall-offs. Sure there's regression, but taking his example, the extreme, and applying it to Donaldson on a 4year deal is twisted reality.

To point, what is the goal here? What is the repercussion? You're a Playoff contending team the last two seasons. You have a huge hole you can fill at not only a fielding position but a huge hole you fill for a batting position. You don't have a 3b prospect excelling to create pause on a deal beyond 1 or 2years. You can look at the current main players attached to this 2year playoff run and see that they are still together for 3 more years. Why for the life of you would you let say 10million a year keep you from making a deal that for all intents and purposes is the best upgrade for your team the next 3seasons? You don't have the opportunity to improve the team anywhere else for as simple as a 4 year deal. To think, what flaw does he possess? Something that sends off red flags to regression where it will hurt that this man is on your roster? Defense? Offense? Strike outs? On the bases? I can't find none.

 

You know you have a playoff team w/o this exceptional 3b sitting there for you to sign that checks the boxes of everything you need for the 3year window. 10million going to keep you from this match? How much money are you making as a team that goes deep in the playoffs? It's gotta be a healthy bonus to host games+the media revenue. And more that I don't know in profits. Maybe it's future profits in that if the Brewers made a World Series the following year or years they were featured more often in prime time games. Make the run for it. Then tear it all down 4years from now if you have to because you lost that ~25mil a year for 4years expensive contract. 1 World Series appearance in the next 3 years is as good as it gets for a Brewerfan that was 1year old the last time it occurred.

[superfly]

Albert Pujols provided bWAR of 4.0 and 3.0 during his age 34/35 season. He has since provided a combined bWAR of 0.3 in his last four seasons.

 

The big issue with older players is they can get a little slower, lose a hair of quickness, and then start being affected health-wise by a lifetime of playing the game. It can lead to - at times - a quick decline in production.

 

I'm not saying Donaldson will suffer this - just that it is much more likely to happen to an aging player like himself.

 

But this is a 4year contract on a player a full year healthy going in to his age 34 season. Pujols suffered a set back for age 33 that he never returned to the player he had been prior. He still gave LA 7.5 BWAR for ages 34,35,36 before falling off the cliff age 37. Amazingly Pujols will make more money than Donaldson the next 2 seasons. Pujols' age decline is actually considered one of the most extreme performance fall-offs. Sure there's regression, but taking his example, the extreme, and applying it to Donaldson on a 4year deal is twisted reality.

To point, what is the goal here? What is the repercussion? You're a Playoff contending team the last two seasons. You have a huge hole you can fill at not only a fielding position but a huge hole you fill for a batting position. You don't have a 3b prospect excelling to create pause on a deal beyond 1 or 2years. You can look at the current main players attached to this 2year playoff run and see that they are still together for 3 more years. Why for the life of you would you let say 10million a year keep you from making a deal that for all intents and purposes is the best upgrade for your team the next 3seasons? You don't have the opportunity to improve the team anywhere else for as simple as a 4 year deal. To think, what flaw does he possess? Something that sends off red flags to regression where it will hurt that this man is on your roster? Defense? Offense? Strike outs? On the bases? I can't find none.

 

You know you have a playoff team w/o this exceptional 3b sitting there for you to sign that checks the boxes of everything you need for the 3year window. 10million going to keep you from this match? How much money are you making as a team that goes deep in the playoffs? It's gotta be a healthy bonus to host games+the media revenue. And more that I don't know in profits. Maybe it's future profits in that if the Brewers made a World Series the following year or years they were featured more often in prime time games. Make the run for it. Then tear it all down 4years from now if you have to because you lost that ~25mil a year for 4years expensive contract. 1 World Series appearance in the next 3 years is as good as it gets for a Brewerfan that was 1year old the last time it occurred.

 

Why do that when you can remain “decent” and make excuses for how you’re “close” to the promised land but just barely can’t afford it...and suggest it by sending your media mouthpieces out claiming you lost money last year?

 

Winners make the move you suggest. Decent organizations wuss out. So what if we have to tear it down, it’s coming down the road regardless if we plan for it or not. I get it if he doesn’t want to come here and that’s perfectly fine, but it sure sounds to me like he’s ready and waiting to head on to whomever offers it first.

[MNBrew]

Maybe it's been said elsewhere in this thread, I do think it'd make things pretty interesting if news came out of the blue that Josh Donaldson signed with us.

 

Wishful thinking, for sure -- and seemingly highly unlikely at that -- but just as the Grandal signing came out of nowhere, it wouldn't surprise me if Stearns pulled a rabbit out of his hat with at least some move over the next month or so.

[adambr2]

Maybe it's been said elsewhere in this thread, I do think it'd make things pretty interesting if news came out of the blue that Josh Donaldson signed with us.

 

Wishful thinking, for sure -- and seemingly highly unlikely at that -- but just as the Grandal signing came out of nowhere, it wouldn't surprise me if Stearns pulled a rabbit out of his hat with at least some move over the next month or so.

 

Donaldson just doesn't fit the mold of a Grandal 1 year type signing. If we could get him for 1/30 I'm guessing Stearns would be all over it but it's just not going to happen. Donaldson is old, he can get 4 years and probably 9 figures now, this may be his last shot, he is going to take it. No way he risks a 1 year prove it deal now.

 

Grandal was still young enough to take a short-term deal and try again in a better market next year. Donaldson already has a great market and is too old to risk another 1 year coming up such a great season.

[reillymcshane]

As a note, only 10 position players in the last decade produced a 5.0 fWAR or greater at age 33 or older. Donaldson had a 4.9 fWAR last year - his age 33 season.

 

It is a mixed bag. The list is only 10 guys - showing how difficult it is to maintain elite play at 33 and beyond. Almost no one maintains higher level production (4.0+ WAR) after age 34. (Nelson Cruz and Adrian Beltre can take a bow for the exceptional play as they advanced into their later 30s - really remarkable).

 

Below are the players - listing the ages they played, and the fWAR they produced during that time.

 

Jed Lowrie* (33-35) - 3.6, 5.0, -0.1

Joey Votto* (33-35) - 6.5, 3.5. 0.7

Robinson Cano (33-36) - 6.3, 3.1, 2.9, 0.8

Adrian Beltre (33-39) - 6.3, 4.9, 5.9, 4.3, 5.5, 2.9, 1.1

Ian Kinsler (33-37) - 3.9, 5.4, 2.6, 2.2, -0.2

Curtis Granderson* (33-38) - 1.2, 5.3, 3.1, 2.1, 0.9, -1.4

Jose Bautista (33-37) - 6.2, 5.2, 1.5, -0.4, 1.0

Nelson Cruz* (33-38) - 3.9, 5.0, 4.4, 3.8, 2.5, 4.3

Jayson Werth (33-38) - 1.4, 4.4, 5.3, -0.1, 1.3, -0.3

Aramis Ramirez (33-37) - 3.3, 5.4, 1.3, 1.7, 1.1

 

*Still active

 

I'm sure what scares teams is guys like Jose Bautista. Or Miguel Cabrera (who had a 4.8 fWAR at age 33, and then a total of 0.2 fWAR ever since). Votto looks like he's heading down that path as well. Amazing at 33. Good at 34. Mediocre at 35 last season.

 

I'm not trying to justify a Donaldson addition (or a rejection of it). Just showing the numbers. While he was healthy in 2019, he missed 2/3 of 2018, and 1/3 of 2017 due to injuries.

 

Personally, I'd love Donaldson. Based on the history of older players, I'm not sure how wise an investment he'd be down the road, but he certainly would be great to have at this time.

[Eye Black]

Great stuff, Reilly! It’s also worth pointing out that while Nelson Cruz appears to be one of the recent exception in terms of maintaining a high WAR late into his 30’s, even that has been done in conjunction with playing only 54.1 innings combined in the field over the past three seasons (and he didn’t play a single inning in the field last season). He hasn’t started more than half a season’s worth of games (>81) in the field since 2013 (age 32).

[TURBO]

I can't wait for Donaldson to sign someplace.

[wibadgers23]

I can't wait for Donaldson to sign someplace.

 

Yeah it kinda feels like once Donaldson signs, maybe the trade market will get going again.

[anglotiger]

Given what's left on the market after Donaldson signs, I'm hoping either for a trade or just seeing what Healy has.

 

I'm not excited about Healy, but I'm even less enamoured with paying any of the remaining free agent third basemen after Donaldson.

[reillymcshane]

I'm guessing Frazier may be of interest to Milwaukee, or Stearns makes a trade. I doubt the club relies on Healy and Sogard to cover 3B. But you never know. Stearns may look at these guys as a group - Smoak, Healy, Hiura, Sogard, Urias, Arcia - and feel they can handle things better than what ever else is out there.

 

Healy can play some 3B and 1B, Sogard can play 3B and 2B, Arcia SS, 2B, Urias 2B, SS and 3B. It's not my ideal group of players, but it might be what we are heading towards.

 

Short of signing Donaldson (which I doubt is going to happen), I am guessing a trade is the most likely scenario. But anything is really possible.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The longer Castellanos hangs out on the open market, the more a part of me thinks that the Brewers may just be willing to eat his bad defense at 3B in the interest of getting another potent RH stick in the lineup. Sogard could very easily be used as a late-game substitution at 3B to tighten up the defense. I am just of the belief that if any player on the market is primed for a potential Yelich-like offensive break-out, it's Castellanos.

[patrickgpe]

you may be right,but the brewers already have a poor defender at 2nd and catcher. how many can you put out there everyday?