Mets Trade Idea

[A Swing and A Drive]

My apologies. It keeps coming up as a general censenus that a Hader/McNeil centered trade makes sense because of “need”.

 

Hader for McNeil best case would be like Mariano Rivera for Jeff Cirillo, IMO

 

And as far as Thor’s early career struggles go, most ACES go thru early career growing pains. (Max Scherzer as example). Scouts are universal on believing that Thor has ACE potential.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My apologies. It keeps coming up as a general censenus that a Hader/McNeil centered trade makes sense because of “need”.

 

Hader for McNeil best case would be like Mariano Rivera for Jeff Cirillo, IMO

 

And as far as Thor’s early career struggles go, most ACES go thru early career growing pains. (Max Scherzer as example). Scouts are universal on believing that Thor has ACE potential.

 

That's fair. And I agree ... dealing off stars to fill "needs" at other positions can be a dangerous precedent to set. I think it's important to note that I would not do a one-for-one deal in this case. McNeil would have to be coming back with either Dom Smith or J.D. Davis, who could fill that 1B hole, and also a pitching prospect.

 

There was some scuttle yesterday about a Hader for Lux deal. Now that would be interesting. I do kinda get the feeling that Hader is going to be traded this offseason, though. I just don't know if the Mets would give up Thor for him.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Gavin Lux as a headliner for Hader would be exciting for certain. (His Wisconsin roots a bonus). He has more potential (also risk) than McNeil.

 

It’s not that I think McNeil is not worth acquiring. Just wondering if we could do it without Hader?

 

Turang and Lutz perhaps?

[pacopete4]

For me, McNeil & Davis might be better than just getting Lux. You cover two holes with potential impact bats versus one. Lux could very well flame out just as much as either Davis or McNeil. Two may end up being better than one in this instance.

[Vollbc74]

Brewers get: Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith, Jed Lowrie, & Justus Sheffield

Mariners get: Corey Ray

Mets get: Josh Hader & Kyle Seager

 

 

 

CF-Cain

RF-Yelich

2B-Hiura

3B-McNeil

1B-Braun

C-Navarez

LF-Garcia

SS-Urias

P

 

Bench-Smith(1B), Lowrie(3B/2B), Pina©, Gamel(OF), Arcia(SS)

[A Swing and A Drive]

Here we go with filling holes again...

 

Lol.

 

With the move of Braun to 1B and the addition of Healy, I think the ship has sailed on any Hader trade with the Mets that doesn't have an impact pitcher coming back to the Brew Crew.

 

And I agree that more would need to be included with Lux for Hader. Potentially Dustin May or failing that, Josiah Gray.

[brewerhuman]

IMO you trade Josh Hader for the best package possible - not the one that plugs the most holes. Yes, those agendas will likely cross over, but if you move on from Hader you do it for the best value in return. To me that means I’d prefer a Lux return over McNeil/Davis unless the Mets include valuable pitching to put that package as a whole over the top. Should the Dodgers include an arm of some kind, then I shift back.

[sveumrules]

Untrue. There are posters comparing McNeil to Yelich.

 

Jeff McNeil played his first MLB game on 7/24/18. Since then there are 115 qualified batters with McNeil ranking...

 

PAs: 815 (64th) | wRC+: 141 (13th) | K%: 12.1 (7th) | WAR: 7.3 (15th)

 

Now of course, that doesn't compare to the current version of Yelich, though it is not that far off since there are only 13 players closer to Yelich in overall value than McNeil has been since he debuted, but this version of Yelich certainly wasn't the version of Yelich we acquired, or even saw at the outset of his tenure with the Brewers.

 

The seemingly relevant comparison would be how McNeil compares to Yelich's most recent performance before his breakout following the 2018 ASG. So, Chrsitian Yelich from 2017 through the 2018 ASG, of 129 qualified batters, ranked...

 

PAs: 1,052 (27th) | wRC+: 119 (48th) | K%: 20.9 (78th) | WAR: 6.8 (27th)

[clancyphile]

My apologies. It keeps coming up as a general censenus that a Hader/McNeil centered trade makes sense because of “need”.

 

Hader for McNeil best case would be like Mariano Rivera for Jeff Cirillo, IMO

 

And as far as Thor’s early career struggles go, most ACES go thru early career growing pains. (Max Scherzer as example). Scouts are universal on believing that Thor has ACE potential.

 

I'll speak up here as one of the prominent advocates for making McNeil the centerpiece of the deal.

 

One of the reasons I like McNeil is the fact that he has racked up pretty good numbers in Citi Field, a park that has been even more friendly to pitchers than Marlins Park. If he simply continues those numbers, he is a huge asset to the Brewers. He locks down third base.

 

Given the park factors involved (and I have posted the comparisons before), I think it is very possible for McNeil's offense to take a level up, just as Christian Yelich's did when he arrived.

 

He's cheap for at least one more year, possibly two. He has five years of control. He can play third base, and he already posts very good offensive numbers. In the NL Central, he's an upgrade at third over Moose. He makes Healy the backup at 1B and 3B.

 

The Brewers could do much worse than McNeil.

[PeaveyFury]

My apologies. It keeps coming up as a general censenus that a Hader/McNeil centered trade makes sense because of “need”.

 

Hader for McNeil best case would be like Mariano Rivera for Jeff Cirillo, IMO

 

And as far as Thor’s early career struggles go, most ACES go thru early career growing pains. (Max Scherzer as example). Scouts are universal on believing that Thor has ACE potential.

 

The issue I have with this take is that at some point, the results have to match up with the potential, or the expectations have to be adjusted. Sooner or later, Thor either has to perform, or he can no longer be expected to be a TOR guy. The inverse is also true with McNeil. He gets slammed for his lack of a pedigree, but at some point, his actual MLB performance must change the projections of his value.

 

The other issue is that even if Thor DOES finally meet his potential, you have him for two seasons. He'd better get there this year, otherwise if he does in 2021, he's getting paid $350million by the Yankees in 2022.

[mattyo]

My apologies. It keeps coming up as a general censenus that a Hader/McNeil centered trade makes sense because of “need”.

 

Hader for McNeil best case would be like Mariano Rivera for Jeff Cirillo, IMO

 

And as far as Thor’s early career struggles go, most ACES go thru early career growing pains. (Max Scherzer as example). Scouts are universal on believing that Thor has ACE potential.

 

I'll speak up here as one of the prominent advocates for making McNeil the centerpiece of the deal.

 

One of the reasons I like McNeil is the fact that he has racked up pretty good numbers in Citi Field, a park that has been even more friendly to pitchers than Marlins Park. If he simply continues those numbers, he is a huge asset to the Brewers. He locks down third base.

 

Given the park factors involved (and I have posted the comparisons before), I think it is very possible for McNeil's offense to take a level up, just as Christian Yelich's did when he arrived.

 

He's cheap for at least one more year, possibly two. He has five years of control. He can play third base, and he already posts very good offensive numbers. In the NL Central, he's an upgrade at third over Moose. He makes Healy the backup at 1B and 3B.

 

The Brewers could do much worse than McNeil.

 

"Could do much worse than X" is not exactly the best selling point when considering whether to trade your elite, cost controlled pitcher.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Like I stated, Jeff McNeil seems to be a great hitter and solid player, but I'd prefer to trade for him using assets other than Josh Hader.

 

The general rule of thumb is that the team that gets the best player usually wins the trade. And it's pretty clear the Brewers would not be getting the best player in that proposed swap. (regardless of the several other lesser players proposed). I mean maybe if Hader was in his last year of team control it would make more sense to me.

 

In my opinion, we could potentially keep Hader for the next 3 1/2 seaons and STILL get a better return then Jeff McNeil. (Example: Aroldis Chapman for Gleybar Torres). In some ways, I think Hader makes sense as a July trade candidate whenever we do trade him because contending teams are always looking for lockdown relievers come July to put them over the top.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think looking at the typical reliever trade market, you can't use that Chapman/Torres deal as any sort of example. That one is clearly an outlier of a team completely desperate for a World Series crown overpaying another very well-off team through the nose for a dominant reliever that did, in fact, help they win that championship. That said, that one deal likely lessened the Cubs' championship window, and they are now to the point where they are looking at dismantling after not getting back.

 

As a Brewer fan, if they trade Hader, I want the most value as possible back. But if we go into it thinking that the Brewers "deserve" a similar return to what the Yankees got for Chapman, we're gonna be disappointed. Teams just aren't that stupid anymore. As far as I'm concerned, Theo lucked himself into that championship.

[TURBO]

McNeil and Thor for Hader. Get it done!

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think looking at the typical reliever trade market, you can't use that Chapman/Torres deal as any sort of example. That one is clearly an outlier of a team completely desperate for a World Series crown overpaying another very well-off team through the nose for a dominant reliever that did, in fact, help they win that championship. That said, that one deal likely lessened the Cubs' championship window, and they are now to the point where they are looking at dismantling after not getting back.

 

As a Brewer fan, if they trade Hader, I want the most value as possible back. But if we go into it thinking that the Brewers "deserve" a similar return to what the Yankees got for Chapman, we're gonna be disappointed. Teams just aren't that stupid anymore. As far as I'm concerned, Theo lucked himself into that championship.

 

You are probably right but shouldn't the Dodgers be desperate for a World Series Championship by now?

 

Seems like if the Brewers fall out of contention before July and decide to move Hader, the Dodgers could certainly give up a ton of young talent to land him if they so choose.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think looking at the typical reliever trade market, you can't use that Chapman/Torres deal as any sort of example. That one is clearly an outlier of a team completely desperate for a World Series crown overpaying another very well-off team through the nose for a dominant reliever that did, in fact, help they win that championship. That said, that one deal likely lessened the Cubs' championship window, and they are now to the point where they are looking at dismantling after not getting back.

 

As a Brewer fan, if they trade Hader, I want the most value as possible back. But if we go into it thinking that the Brewers "deserve" a similar return to what the Yankees got for Chapman, we're gonna be disappointed. Teams just aren't that stupid anymore. As far as I'm concerned, Theo lucked himself into that championship.

 

You are probably right but shouldn't the Dodgers be desperate for a World Series Championship by now?

 

Seems like if the Brewers fall out of contention before July and decide to move Hader, the Dodgers could certainly give up a ton of young talent to land him if they so choose.

 

I personally think they should ... and have stated as such, only to be told that "the Dodgers are too smart to do anything like that. They can just throw money at their relief problem and it will eventually go away."

 

Point is, they've tried that in recent years, and it hasn't worked. We'll see I guess.

[bill hAll Star]

I think looking at the typical reliever trade market, you can't use that Chapman/Torres deal as any sort of example. That one is clearly an outlier of a team completely desperate for a World Series crown overpaying another very well-off team through the nose for a dominant reliever that did, in fact, help they win that championship. That said, that one deal likely lessened the Cubs' championship window, and they are now to the point where they are looking at dismantling after not getting back.

 

As a Brewer fan, if they trade Hader, I want the most value as possible back. But if we go into it thinking that the Brewers "deserve" a similar return to what the Yankees got for Chapman, we're gonna be disappointed. Teams just aren't that stupid anymore. As far as I'm concerned, Theo lucked himself into that championship.

 

You are probably right but shouldn't the Dodgers be desperate for a World Series Championship by now?

 

Seems like if the Brewers fall out of contention before July and decide to move Hader, the Dodgers could certainly give up a ton of young talent to land him if they so choose.

 

I personally think they should ... and have stated as such, only to be told that "the Dodgers are too smart to do anything like that. They can just throw money at their relief problem and it will eventually go away."

 

Point is, they've tried that in recent years, and it hasn't worked. We'll see I guess.

 

It can be money or it can be lesser acquisitions. Doolittle and Hudson cost the Nats a lot less than Gavin Lux. Though, go figure, Treinen was one of the pieces in the Doolittle trade.

 

Regardless, Brad Hand and maybe Andrew Miller are the two I can think of outside of Chapman recently and while Frazier (and Sheffield) were big pieces, I don't know if the Dodgers are willing to go that far. Mejia was highly regarded but it seems like in all of these cases either the guys slightly busted or the GMs didn't value them as much. That said, Frazier, Mejia, and Sheffield all have time to prove something. In Sheffield's case he has barely hit the majors yet. And none of these guys are bad. I just hold Lux in pretty high regard and don't think the Dodgers are the type to try to fix issues that way.

[LincolnDD]

It’s not that I think McNeil is not worth acquiring. Just wondering if we could do it without Hader?

 

Turang and Lutz perhaps?

 

I doubt it. They don't seem particularly motivated to move McNeil; I can't imagine that offer would change their minds.

[brewerfan82]

Yeah, I'm leaning towards Hader doesn't get traded at this point. Only teams expecting to compete are going to be interested in acquiring him and they're not going to want to take away from the major league team to get him. Additionally his value is so hard to determine. On the one hand he's arguably the best, most dominant reliever in the game, and an incredible asset to any team that has him. But on the other hand, he's a reliever who's going to max out at 70 IP per year, has been overworked the past two years, is about to get pretty expensive (or at least not cheap) via arbitration, and could fall off a cliff just due to the volatile nature of relievers (the Mets in particular know this first hand after getting Diaz last year). It's going to be very difficult to get another team to value him as much as we think he should be valued, it's a real gamble.

 

For reference, check out how close Hader's first three years have been compared to Diaz' first three seasons leading into the Met's acquisition of him:

 

 

 

I think the Mets are still a good matchup on a Lowrie/Smith for a bag of balls (maybe Arcia?) type swap at this point. Move Lowrie into the starting 3B spot, Smith into the LH half of the 1B spot, and bump Sogard/Healy into the utility/lottery ticket/emergency depth roles they should be in.

[TURBO]

I'm going to go the opposite, I see no way we are keeping him this season. His value is at his highest it might ever be.

 

If we plan to trade him for a haul, this is the time to do it, however, it has to be a haul that will help us big time! We can't settle for the best package offered, we have to dig in and get exactly what we want.

[brewerfan82]

I'm going to go the opposite, I see now way we are keeping him this season. his value is at his highest it might ever be.

 

If we plan to trade him for a haul, this is the time to do it, however, it has to be a haul that will help us big time! We can't settle for the best package offered, we have to dig in and get exactly what we want.

 

I'm pessimistic that other teams will be desperate enough during the offseason to overpay for him when they can take a shot with their current guys and/or acquire some FAs and see how they look before giving up someone that would "help us big time" (and likely take away from their major league roster as well). I think the deadline is when teams who have had bullpen issues the first half of the year could get desperate enough to cough up some real talent.

[KeithStone53151]

Thoughts on trading Peralta for JD Davis straight up? I wonder if the Mets would take a chance on his arm.

[wallus]

Thoughts on trading Peralta for JD Davis straight up? I wonder if the Mets would take a chance on his arm.

 

Davis at 3rd, Urias at SS, Hiura at 2nd and Smoak at 1st would give the Brewers the worst infield defense in MLB.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Thoughts on trading Peralta for JD Davis straight up? I wonder if the Mets would take a chance on his arm.

 

Davis at 3rd, Urias at SS, Hiura at 2nd and Smoak at 1st would give the Brewers the worst infield defense in MLB.

 

The Brewers haven't let perceived defensive shortcomings stand in the way of putting together their ideal lineup in recent seasons. I doubt that is going to start now.

[bill hAll Star]

Thoughts on trading Peralta for JD Davis straight up? I wonder if the Mets would take a chance on his arm.

 

Davis at 3rd, Urias at SS, Hiura at 2nd and Smoak at 1st would give the Brewers the worst infield defense in MLB.

 

The Brewers haven't let perceived defensive shortcomings stand in the way of putting together their idea lineup in recent seasons. I doubt that is going to start now.

 

Yes and no. They had Arcia anchoring them in shifts and protecting Shaw/Mous at 2B. If they go to Urias, who I am excited to see if he can step into the role but apparently is not a wizard...I'm not sure you also want a subpar 3B. Especially when you've just signed Brett Anderson.