Mets Trade Idea

[jackailius]

I know they reworked the Cespedes deal but I wouldn't doubt they are looking to still get rid of the Familia and Lowrie. I personally really like Lowrie and think he is a bounce back candidate after an injury strung 2019. Bullpen guys are up and down always so there is hope that Familia won't be dead weight. They are both real concerns but have great upsides in the past. That said to take them on I am asking for Dom Smith and JD Davis. I would look to throw Arcia, T. Taylor and some combination of Wahl/Black/T. Williams back to them.

 

Why this makes sense for the Brewers:

This gets us a 1b for the next 5 years. JD Davis looks like he could be our 3b of the future as well. As noted above I really like Lowrie and if Davis is playing well and Urias isn’t quite getting the job done at short, Lowrie could move over and cover short. In Familia we are taking a formerly good bullpen arm who was awful last year in hopes we can bring him back to serviceable. If it works he will be great to pair with Knebel and Hader at the end of the game (though I would also like to see them sign Betances as well regardless) and if it doesn’t work out, we move him to mop up multi-inning role- he would be expensive for that role but we are paying to get the 5 yrs of Davis and Lowrie.

 

Why this makes sense for the Mets:

Arcia has shown flashes of what brought him to the top of the prospect lists but has been disappointing for us. The Mets will hopefully look at that prospect rating, the potential and see the possibility for a change of scenery bump. Taylor has options but is MLB ready and can pair with Nimmo in center as well as cover the other OF spots when needed. The other need for the Mets are bullpen arms. We have a few that won’t end up making the team.

Could be a win win. Most of all, this takes $30M off the books over the next 2 years to give them flexibility to fill other holes.

 

That said, what do you think? Is it fair for each club or far off? Who would say no and why? I’m not a value expert by any means and could be way off.

 

The Trade:

Brewers get:

Dominic Smith

JD Davis

Jed Lowrie

Jeurys Familia

 

Mets get:

Orlando Arcia

Tyrone Taylor

Wahl/Black/T. WIlliams

[Madhawk23]

I know they reworked the Cespedes deal but I wouldn't doubt they are looking to still get rid of the Familia and Lowrie. I personally really like Lowrie and think he is a bounce back candidate after an injury strung 2019. Bullpen guys are up and down always so there is hope that Familia won't be dead weight. They are both real concerns but have great upsides in the past. That said to take them on I am asking for Dom Smith and JD Davis. I would look to throw Arcia, T. Taylor and some combination of Wahl/Black/T. Williams back to them.

 

Why this makes sense for the Brewers:

This gets us a 1b for the next 5 years. JD Davis looks like he could be our 3b of the future as well. As noted above I really like Lowrie and if Davis is playing well and Urias isn’t quite getting the job done at short, Lowrie could move over and cover short. In Familia we are taking a formerly good bullpen arm who was awful last year in hopes we can bring him back to serviceable. If it works he will be great to pair with Knebel and Hader at the end of the game (though I would also like to see them sign Betances as well regardless) and if it doesn’t work out, we move him to mop up multi-inning role- he would be expensive for that role but we are paying to get the 5 yrs of Davis and Lowrie.

 

Why this makes sense for the Mets:

Arcia has shown flashes of what brought him to the top of the prospect lists but has been disappointing for us. The Mets will hopefully look at that prospect rating, the potential and see the possibility for a change of scenery bump. Taylor has options but is MLB ready and can pair with Nimmo in center as well as cover the other OF spots when needed. The other need for the Mets are bullpen arms. We have a few that won’t end up making the team.

Could be a win win. Most of all, this takes $30M off the books over the next 2 years to give them flexibility to fill other holes.

 

That said, what do you think? Is it fair for each club or far off? Who would say no and why? I’m not a value expert by any means and could be way off.

 

The Trade:

Brewers get:

Dominic Smith

JD Davis

Jed Lowrie

Jeurys Familia

 

Mets get:

Orlando Arcia

Tyrone Taylor

Wahl/Black/T. WIlliams

 

I know the Mets would probably love to find a taker for the Lowrie and Familia (especially) contracts, but I've got to imagine that they would still say "no" to this deal. Giving up Smith and Davis in this deal feels like it's too much from their side, but maybe others will disagree.

[clancyphile]

There's a reason the Mets hid Davis in left and first... I don't think he's an option at third, or a good one. With Garcia, I think that moment has passed.

 

That said... I like the idea of taking Lowrie/Familia to get a bigger haul. How about this?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18912/

 

Brewers get:

3B Baty (minors)

OF/1B Dom Smith

LHP Kevin Smith (minors)

IF Lowrie

IF McNeil

RHP Familia

 

Mets get:

LHP Hader

RHP T. Williams

OF Taylor

SS Arcia

 

Get Baty and Kevin Smith as a payment for taking Familia/Lowrie off the Mets' hands...

 

We lose Hader. Sucks, but I get McNeil and Dom Smith to fill holes.

 

Add a trade of Erceg and Wahl for Chris Archer (https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18913/), and now things get interesting.

 

Hre's what the lineup looks like:

 

ss: Urias

2b: Hiura

lf: Yelich/cf: Yelich

rf: Garcia

3b: McNeil

1b: Braun/Smith

c: Narvaez

cf: Cain/lf: Braun

pitcher

bench: Pina, Lowrie, Mathias, Gamel, Broxton

rotation: Woodruff, Archer, B. Anderson, Lindblom, Lauer

bullpen: Knebel, Suter, Houser, Peralta, Rasmussen, Claudio, Familia, Yardley

[JosephC]

I'm starting to believe that Attanasio has indeed cut payroll which makes taking on 20 million of salary-dump contracts as a complete impossibility (and another 10 million in 2021 since Familia still has two years left on his deal).

[brewcrewdue80]

Come on. Dont be that guy. 7 player deals getting rid of junk taking in expensive junk timesX2. You're not going to see that kind of trade. What even is the point of Lowrie? To Waive because you have Davis and Smith now. What does clearing payroll for The Mets do now? They'd have to be in talks for Donaldson or Ryu.

Stick to simplicity. 1bad contract maybe proposals.

[KeithStone53151]

I was going to say, there are just too many players for this to be a real proposal. Stearns hasn't made any deals of this size to date. The Brewers could very quickly solve a lot of problems if we made a move for Smith and Lowrie from the Mets. Trade value site puts their value at a slight positive overall, so throw in a guy around 15 or 20 on our top 30 list probably gets it done. Lowrie if healthy can play some 3b and general utility/PH...Smith platoons at 1b...and we take on about 10m in salary for 2020. That's certainly not so bad. Probably end up using Urias/Arcia/Lowrie at ss/3b

[PeaveyFury]

Hader for Smith, Lowrie, and McNeil probably works for me and for the Mets too, I'd think.

[wildcat2237]

Hader for Smith, Lowrie, and McNeil probably works for me and for the Mets too, I'd think.

 

Big +1.

 

It just seems the Brewers and Mets make too much sense this offseason.

 

I also think that this would be a pretty even deal.

[pacopete4]

Hader for Smith, Lowrie, and McNeil probably works for me and for the Mets too, I'd think.

 

I don’t think I’d want Lowrie back if it’s Smith and McNeil. If want a lottery ticket arm if we are going after those two.

[PeaveyFury]

Hader for Smith, Lowrie, and McNeil probably works for me and for the Mets too, I'd think.

 

I don’t think I’d want Lowrie back if it’s Smith and McNeil. If want a lottery ticket arm if we are going after those two.

 

You're right that Lowrie is a bit redundant at that point. Honestly, Hader for Smith, NcNeil, and Diaz would be very interesting, if they're willing to move on from him already. I fail to think that a guy who was one of the best relievers in the AL his first three seasons could be completely done after a horrendous 4th year.

[wibadgers23]

Hader for Smith, Lowrie, and McNeil probably works for me and for the Mets too, I'd think.

 

Love it. And then go out and sign Betances to a one year deal and call it an offseason.

[Devinep]

Hader for Smith, Lowrie, and McNeil probably works for me and for the Mets too, I'd think.

 

I don’t think I’d want Lowrie back if it’s Smith and McNeil. If want a lottery ticket arm if we are going after those two.

 

The Mets night also want Lowrie for 3B if they trade McNeil. So maybe a Diaz makes sense (also as a replacement for Hader in MIL)

[brewcrewdue80]

I've worked this out on the 3b thread. Hader for JD Davis, Kevin Smith, and another SP prospect sczrecki or something. Play Davis at 1b. Those 2 pitchers are probably a year away but you get a 1b that put his bat in Elite contact territory with similar splits vs RH&LH. I know you want to fill 1b&3b with Smith&Mcneil. The thing is Davis has a poorer profile for 3b defense. Mets have Alonso for 1b. Youre forcing them to play Davis @3b when removing McNeil. I think that becomes a no deal. But that would actually leave the best hitter of the 3 available with 5yrs control to be 1b for Milw who doesnt need a platoon.

Now we turn around and get crazy with the 4+mil you save on Hader and sign Donaldson for 3/81mil. You have a complete lineup set for 2years. All of basically .266+ BA with various degrees that make them .800+ bats. (4 potentially .950+) No platoon at 1b or 3b. Bonus Pitcher now to use for bullpen. Just do it. I want to find Stearns and convince him he cant go wrong with these two moves.

[wildcat2237]

I've worked this out on the 3b thread. Hader for JD Davis, Kevin Smith, and another SP prospect sczrecki or something. Play Davis at 1b. Those 2 pitchers are probably a year away but you get a 1b that put his bat in Elite contact territory with similar splits vs RH&LH. I know you want to fill 1b&3b with Smith&Mcneil. The thing is Davis has a poorer profile for 3b defense. Mets have Alonso for 1b. Youre forcing them to play Davis @3b when removing McNeil. I think that becomes a no deal. But that would actually leave the best hitter of the 3 available with 5yrs control to be 1b for Milw who doesnt need a platoon.

Now we turn around and get crazy with the 4+mil you save on Hader and sign Donaldson for 3/81mil. You have a complete lineup set for 2years. All of basically .266+ BA with various degrees that make them .800+ bats. (4 potentially .950+) No platoon at 1b or 3b. Bonus Pitcher now to use for bullpen. Just do it. I want to find Stearns and convince him he cant go wrong with these two moves.

 

I like this too. However, I am not convinced the Mets give up an elite bat in Davis PLUS two pitching prospects...

[brewcrewdue80]

I've worked this out on the 3b thread. Hader for JD Davis, Kevin Smith, and another SP prospect sczrecki or something. Play Davis at 1b. Those 2 pitchers are probably a year away but you get a 1b that put his bat in Elite contact territory with similar splits vs RH&LH. I know you want to fill 1b&3b with Smith&Mcneil. The thing is Davis has a poorer profile for 3b defense. Mets have Alonso for 1b. Youre forcing them to play Davis @3b when removing McNeil. I think that becomes a no deal. But that would actually leave the best hitter of the 3 available with 5yrs control to be 1b for Milw who doesnt need a platoon.

Now we turn around and get crazy with the 4+mil you save on Hader and sign Donaldson for 3/81mil. You have a complete lineup set for 2years. All of basically .266+ BA with various degrees that make them .800+ bats. (4 potentially .950+) No platoon at 1b or 3b. Bonus Pitcher now to use for bullpen. Just do it. I want to find Stearns and convince him he cant go wrong with these two moves.

 

I like this too. However, I am not convinced the Mets give up an elite bat in Davis PLUS two pitching prospects...

 

Davis doesnt fit in their defense. They played him in LF and he graded horribly.

The SP prospects are like 11 and 13 in their top 30. McNeil because hes better defensively at 3b has to be on their non trade pieces. They're trading for Hader here I wouldnt be surprised if we asked for one of the teams top SS or 3b prospects with only 1 Pitcher in return. But we have Turang, Erceg and now Urias so I'd throw a dart at SPs vs IF bats. The Mets have a really nice thought of SP but hes projection and 2+years from ML. I could see the 2 that I mentioned be late season adds for the BP if that is struggling or facing injuries. When Anderson is gone you can have 1 of them potentially fill the SP spot.

[wntrtxn21]

IMO any deal with the Mets has to start with McNeil. Davis would be a part-time 1B along with Braun. If they get Davis he would be a secondary piece of the trade.

[brewtank34]

IMO any deal with the Mets has to start with McNeil. Davis would be a part-time 1B along with Braun. If they get Davis he would be a secondary piece of the trade.

 

IMO ang deal with the Mets has to start with Thor. They have the arms that we need.

[A Swing and A Drive]

IMO any deal with the Mets has to start with McNeil. Davis would be a part-time 1B along with Braun. If they get Davis he would be a secondary piece of the trade.

 

IMO ang deal with the Mets has to start with Thor. They have the arms that we need.

 

I agree, if the Brewers trade Hader, the headliner needs to be a pitcher with TOR potential, not a couple of league average position players just because they can play 3B/1B. Very short sighted IMO.

[PeaveyFury]

IMO any deal with the Mets has to start with McNeil. Davis would be a part-time 1B along with Braun. If they get Davis he would be a secondary piece of the trade.

 

IMO ang deal with the Mets has to start with Thor. They have the arms that we need.

 

I agree, if the Brewers trade Hader, the headliner needs to be a pitcher with TOR potential, not a couple of league average position players just because they can play 3B/1B. Very short sighted IMO.

 

This is mostly an inaccurate statement. McNeil's OPS was tied for 4th best of league 3B. Hardly "league average".

 

Also, at what point is Thor expected to actualy pitch like a TOR starter, rather than missing a bunch of starts each year and putting up numbers similar to Zach Davies?

[pacopete4]

If there is no clear cut TOR type pitcher that is worth it, and I'm not sure Thor is, the next best thing would be getting impact bats and both McNeil and Davis could just be that. They would be cheap and controlled for several seasons to pair up with Urias and Hiura. We would have one cheap infield to go along with our expensive outfield but either way, we would have some premium talent at just about every position.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

IMO any deal with the Mets has to start with McNeil. Davis would be a part-time 1B along with Braun. If they get Davis he would be a secondary piece of the trade.

 

IMO ang deal with the Mets has to start with Thor. They have the arms that we need.

 

I agree, if the Brewers trade Hader, the headliner needs to be a pitcher with TOR potential, not a couple of league average position players just because they can play 3B/1B. Very short sighted IMO.

 

Wow! To think that someone could call what McNeil has done in his career "league average", while calling Thor a pitcher with TOR potential, and then to double down to call people saying that short-sighted? Something isn't adding up.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Thor just needs some of that Brewers pitching pixie dust!

 

And since when is career minor leaguer Jeff McNeil who has one good MLB season, all of a sudden Christian Yelich 2.0?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Thor just needs some of that Brewers pitching pixie dust!

 

And since when is career minor leaguer Jeff McNeil who has one good MLB season, all of a sudden Christian Yelich 2.0?

 

Give me a break. That is hyperbole if I ever saw it. No one is calling him Yelich. He's a solid, relatively young cost-controlled player at a huge position of need for the Brewers.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Untrue. There are posters comparing McNeil to Yelich.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Untrue. There are posters comparing McNail to Yelich.

 

Well, I'm not. And it appears that you were replying to me.