Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)

[A Swing and A Drive]

So you seriously think the Pirates would accept a straight up Brice Turang for Josh Bell offer?*

 

 

*Clarification Note: Neal Huntington is no longer the Pirates GM.

[JosephC]

So I've been looking at more commentary about Bell from around the net, and there were numerous comments about how uneven he was in last year's breakout campaign.

 

He slashed .390/.442/.797/1.239...12 HR, 31 RBI in May alone.

 

He slashed .233/.351/.429/.780...10 HR, 32 RBI after the All-Star break. Nothing wrong with a .780 OPS but, on the other hand, that's nothing special for a first baseman.

 

The more I read, the more the <2 WAR projections moving forward are justified.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So I've been looking at more commentary about Bell from around the net, and there were numerous comments about how uneven he was in last year's breakout campaign.

 

He slashed .390/.442/.797/1.239...12 HR, 31 RBI in May alone.

 

He slashed .233/.351/.429/.780...10 HR, 32 RBI after the All-Star break. Nothing wrong with a .780 OPS but, on the other hand, that's nothing special for a first baseman.

 

The more I read, the more the <2 WAR projections moving forward are justified.

 

Yeah, that inconsistency isn't fetching a premium prospect from anyone. Bell is a nice player, but he is tied to 1B. I personally see a lot of similarities to Jesus Aguilar.

[nate82]

 

Over saturated with similar talent? Who do you think is out there right now that is on the same level as Josh Bell?

 

Any of the FA available right now would get you about the same value as Bell and won't cost a prospect. There is also Smith from the Mets who could give you similar production.

 

Thames a FA would give you about the same production as Bell at 1B. Encarnacion is another who could give you similar production at 1B. Smoak is another player who can give you similar production. All of these players minus Smith won't cost a prospect and can be had for a similar dollar amount as Bell.

 

If you want to go further the cost per production is in favor of the FA over a trade for Bell.

[nate82]

So you seriously think the Pirates would accept a straight up Brice Turang for Josh Bell offer?*

 

 

*Clarification Note: Neal Huntington is no longer the Pirates GM.

 

You are looking at this completely wrong.

 

The value of Bell is at someone outside of a top 100 prospect not if the Pirates would accept that. They obviously will not accept it as they believe the value to them is worth more than what the market is offering.

[JosephC]

After reviewing some arbitration numbers, I've probably credited Bell with about 5 million more than what he'll actually earn. Subtract that and his surplus value goes from 20 million to 25 million. That assumes he's worth 6 WAR (2 WAR per season) over the next 3 years.

 

Steamer has an interesting projection on Archer. Check out the average bWAR/fWAR for Archer over the last three seasons:

2017 = 3.0

2018 = 1.8

2019 = 0.7

Three year average = 1.8

For some reason, Steamer is projecting Archer as a 3.0 WAR player for 2020. I'm not buying that. I'll take the three year average and project that number for Archer for both 2020 and 2021.

 

I'd put the surplus values in this trade as follows:

 

Bell = 25 million

Archer = 12.4 million

Bae = 5.5 million

Total = 42.9 million

 

Lutz = 9.4 million

Ray = 7.4 million

Total = 16.8 million

[Devinep]

 

Over saturated with similar talent? Who do you think is out there right now that is on the same level as Josh Bell?

 

Any of the FA available right now would get you about the same value as Bell and won't cost a prospect. There is also Smith from the Mets who could give you similar production.

 

Thames a FA would give you about the same production as Bell at 1B. Encarnacion is another who could give you similar production at 1B. Smoak is another player who can give you similar production. All of these players minus Smith won't cost a prospect and can be had for a similar dollar amount as Bell.

 

If you want to go further the cost per production is in favor of the FA over a trade for Bell.

 

How do you determine production? Bell is easily the best option of those. 143 OPS+ for bell

[nate82]

I don't have as much faith in Bell's May/June numbers and I believe he is more somewhere in between what he did from July - September. That puts him just above Thames and others. Cost wise the FA have more value as the production gap to me is not enough to warrant giving up anything more than what it would require to get Thames or Smoak.

[liveforoctober]

I don't have as much faith in Bell's May/June numbers and I believe he is more somewhere in between what he did from July - September. That puts him just above Thames and others. Cost wise the FA have more value as the production gap to me is not enough to warrant giving up anything more than what it would require to get Thames or Smoak.

 

Ok, so this convo is based off your opinion. You would rather give a reasonable contract to a FA who you think is going to produce similarly vs trading a prospect for a guy who you think is going to produce under his last year's performance. I'm cool with that.

 

This isn't a conversation about what the actual market is for the guy who finished 16th in all of baseball last year in OPS.

[clancyphile]

I don't have as much faith in Bell's May/June numbers and I believe he is more somewhere in between what he did from July - September. That puts him just above Thames and others. Cost wise the FA have more value as the production gap to me is not enough to warrant giving up anything more than what it would require to get Thames or Smoak.

 

Bell is a switch-hitter, which means there is less need to platoon him. Is he as good as the breakout year? No. But I think he can provide Thames-level production.

 

I think the Brewers could do with Archer what they did with Lyles, Miley, and even Gio to an extent. It is more of a salary gamble than Brett Anderson, but Archer arguably has a higher ceiling.

 

Then, of course, comes the other part, Ji-Hwan Bae.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bae---000ji-

 

He's fast, has good OBP skills... and a good hit tool. A bit of a Brice Turang clone, but I like him.

[brewmann04]

Don't see the Prates making this move but it does smell like David up to looking at a trade route

[Eye Black]

A pretty comical take all around.

I know for many posters there is an initial reaction to scoff at others that are presenting proposals/ideas/reasoning/opinion that we don't agree with, or in some cases think should be "common sense" in baseball terms. Instead of deriding or mocking their stance it would be helpful if more often we focused on moving the conversation forward by sharing our own stances from a variety of different related angles.

 

For instance here is a hypothetical example of how it can be done...

 

[Reads Proposal]

 

Internal Dialogue: That's such a silly proposal.

 

Public Messaging: I don't think it is realistic in this instance because I think ______ has more/less (circle one) value based on ______. I do/don't (circle one) think the player mentioned would be a good trade target because ______. I think a more feasible proposal to acquire him would be trading players along the lines of ______ and ______.

[Warning Track Power]

 

Do we care to go down this road again?

[brewerhuman]

Depends on how low buying low is, but yes, I would be interested.

[TURBO]

*gag*gag*gag*

 

There it again, the Archer stuff just never goes away.

[adambr2]

*gag*gag*gag*

 

There it again, the Archer stuff just never goes away.

 

I understand the gagging over giving away a huge return for him like the Pirates did, but buying low on a guy like Archer now if it costs next to nothing is exactly the type of move we should be making.

[Lathund]

I'd be interested in what a deal for Archer could look like. It'd essentially be a $9.25m commitment ($9m in 2020, $250k buyout of a $11m salary in 2021), and with not much money on the books for 2020 it's very doable. Archers value is probably at an all time low, and the Pirates are clearly sellers. Take on the entire salary, and the prospect return will be minimal.

 

Now the big question is of course how good he'll be. I didn't watch enough of him to have any inkling about why his numbers with the Pirates are the way they are, if he can rebound from it or if it's the start (or continuation really) of decay. If the evaluators in the Brewers FO think there's some upside, then a sensible deal could be made. I'd rather see the payroll budget spent elsewhere, but at this point I'm not sure where that would be.

[clancyphile]

I'd be interested in what a deal for Archer could look like. It'd essentially be a $9.25m commitment ($9m in 2020, $250k buyout of a $11m salary in 2021), and with not much money on the books for 2020 it's very doable. Archers value is probably at an all time low, and the Pirates are clearly sellers. Take on the entire salary, and the prospect return will be minimal.

 

Now the big question is of course how good he'll be. I didn't watch enough of him to have any inkling about why his numbers with the Pirates are the way they are, if he can rebound from it or if it's the start (or continuation really) of decay. If the evaluators in the Brewers FO think there's some upside, then a sensible deal could be made. I'd rather see the payroll budget spent elsewhere, but at this point I'm not sure where that would be.

 

Here's what I cobbled together using BaseballTradeValues.com:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-22207/

 

Brewers get:

RHP Chris Archer

SS Ji-Hwan Bae

 

Pirates get:

OF Tristan Lutz

 

Pirates are $700K ahead on surplus value... Brewers get Archer, and SS prospect Ji-Hwan Bae, who has a good hit tool, OBP skills, and speed.

[brewcrewdue80]

Oh puke. He did every bit the warning signs I mentioned when we went down this road before. He was hit hard back then, now that translates to 1.9HR/9 from 1.4 previous season. Walks were higher. There isn't upside in this guy. Clancy this time I believe you have Milw overpaying by quite a lot.

 

Just pass. He Ks a lot of people and had some 200IP seasons. So one would think he was good. But just not the case.

[TURBO]

Brewers get:

RHP Chris Archer

SS Ji-Hwan Bae

 

Pirates get:

OF Tristan Lutz

 

 

Shocking you want to get rid of Lutz once again. Do you include him in EVERY trade deal you come up with because you hate him, or do you view him as the only player in our minor league system that anyone would want?

 

geez.

[wntrtxn21]

I'd be interested in what a deal for Archer could look like. It'd essentially be a $9.25m commitment ($9m in 2020, $250k buyout of a $11m salary in 2021), and with not much money on the books for 2020 it's very doable. Archers value is probably at an all time low, and the Pirates are clearly sellers. Take on the entire salary, and the prospect return will be minimal.

 

Now the big question is of course how good he'll be. I didn't watch enough of him to have any inkling about why his numbers with the Pirates are the way they are, if he can rebound from it or if it's the start (or continuation really) of decay. If the evaluators in the Brewers FO think there's some upside, then a sensible deal could be made. I'd rather see the payroll budget spent elsewhere, but at this point I'm not sure where that would be.

 

Here's what I cobbled together using BaseballTradeValues.com:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-22207/

 

Brewers get:

RHP Chris Archer

SS Ji-Hwan Bae

 

Pirates get:

OF Tristan Lutz

 

Pirates are $700K ahead on surplus value... Brewers get Archer, and SS prospect Ji-Hwan Bae, who has a good hit tool, OBP skills, and speed.

 

I doubt the Pirates would even think about it. Right now Bae is a better prospect than Lutz. They could peddle Archer for something better too. The trade value sight way, way over-values Lutz.