Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)

[clancyphile]

Brewers get:

RHP Archer

1B Bell

SS Bae (minors)

 

Pirates get:

OF Lutz

OF Ray

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18876/

[wallus]

Nope

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Why are we trading Ray at his absolute lowest value? That makes no sense.

[wntrtxn21]

Brewers get:

RHP Archer

1B Bell

SS Bae (minors)

 

Pirates get:

OF Lutz

OF Ray

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18876/

 

The Pirates laugh hysterically. Lutz and Ray wouldn't be close to what the Pirates could get for Bell alone.

[liveforoctober]

Clancy, you LOVE that trade values site. That thing is very flawed, I looked at it for a few minutes before realizing some of the trades I was able ro equal out were comical. It is best used, in my opinion, to learn general value and depth of a team's system. Some of these "acceptable" trades just don't make sense, even if the values balance.

[Devinep]

I get you’re determined to trade lutz but this isn’t even close

[Eye Black]

I think a deal with the Pirates for Josh Bell could make some sense, but I do not believe they will trade him unless someone overwhelms them with a good offer (especially a division rival).

 

Regarding Josh Bell’s low value (9.7) on the Baseball Trade Values site, founder John Bitzer (who posts here occasionally) had this to say about their value assigned to him:

 

To your question about Bell’s value: we’ve triple-checked the numbers and we believe they’re solid. His value is a function of a few things: a) only one breakout year — he was below-average prior to this, and that weak track record has an impact, in that he could very well turn into a pumpkin again (if he has another breakout year, that will drive up his value); b) he’s starting to get expensive in his arb years; c) power-only 1B types are pretty cold commodities on both the trade and free agent markets.

I don’t disagree with John that all of those things are true, but I do think Bell is going to continue to be a good offensive player (even by 1B standards) entering his age 27 season and the Pirates are smart enough to know if he replicates last season his value will skyrocket. He is on a team that has seemingly bungled some recent trades and now has a new GM that will likely be cautious in dealing away the teams top players.

 

I think the Brewers would have to “overpay” to get Bell, and I don't think the Lutz’s of the world would be needle movers for them. In order to be serious about an offer the Brewers may have to include one of their last two top draft picks (Turang or Small) as well as at least one other quality prospect or MLB ready arm. The Pirates are said to be in the market for young catchers or catching prospects, so Feliciano may make some sense for them. It is possible someone like Freddy Peralta may also suit their fancy, but in that case the Brewers would have to decide if they would be willing to give up on his talent to add someone like Bell.

 

Ultimately, I think there could be potential to get a deal done with a package that included Mario Feliciano along with at least one of the following players: Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes, Ethan Small, Brice Turang.

[adambr2]

I would do that deal in a heartbeat. I don't think those valuations are accurate, I think it shortchanges the Pirates way too much, but maybe if Turang was included in lieu of one of the OFers it is close.

 

Either way, for all the crap we give Clancy for ridiculous proposals this is not one of those times anyone should be doing that.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Ignore function, though it's useless if everyone is going to take the bait. How many years of "Braun at 3rd" and ridiculous trade proposals have to be posted by one person before people catch on.

[TURBO]

nope

no

[TURBO]

Ignore function, though it's useless if everyone is going to take the bait. How many years of "Braun at 3rd" and ridiculous trade proposals have to be posted by one person before people catch on.

 

Looking at his post total, I think 4763 posts.

[adambr2]

The guy posts a lot of obscure stuff but you're really piling on him for no reason here. It fills needs for the Brewers and makes sense for us in just about every way. If you think Bell is being undervalued by the simulator or whatever then that's fine just explain that. If it were anyone other than Clancy this would be met with much more rational discussion. Archer and Bell are two guys that absolutely would make sense for us to acquire and the Pirates have basically said they'll listen to offers for anyone on their team.

[bill hAll Star]

Yeah, I am fully aware that Bell struggles on defense and started to fade as the season went by last year...but I don't see how this is that bad of a trade.

 

Maybe I'm not as brushed up on/not as high on Lutz as some, but it's possible that neither Ray nor Lutz makes much of a dent in the majors.

 

Instead, you add a very good 1B with some slightly expensive control. Archer I'd almost consider seeing if he could be an expensive reliever or 2-3 inning guy but realistically he's someone you see if you can fix and put back in the rotation.

[yfinn6]

Without opening the thread, I knew who the Brewers were giving away in this proposal.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Without opening the thread, I knew who the Brewers were giving away in this proposal.

 

I'm sort of surprised the proposed deal doesn't include Arcia as well.

[liveforoctober]

The guy posts a lot of obscure stuff but you're really piling on him for no reason here. It fills needs for the Brewers and makes sense for us in just about every way. If you think Bell is being undervalued by the simulator or whatever then that's fine just explain that. If it were anyone other than Clancy this would be met with much more rational discussion. Archer and Bell are two guys that absolutely would make sense for us to acquire and the Pirates have basically said they'll listen to offers for anyone on their team.

 

The reason it is a silly trade is because Josh Bell alone would cost so much more than what we are offering here. Bell was paid $500k last year and he hit 37 HRs with 116 RBIs and an OPS of .936. He is 1st season arby eligible right now and his production is demolishing his pay. In terms of the best value players in all of baseball he is probably in the Top 5.

 

Lutz and Ray are not getting that deal done by themselves... but now we are also asking for Chris Archer AND one of their Top 10 prospects?

 

I'm not mad at Clancy for proposing the trade ... I'm amused people (in this case him) are using that trade machine site as justification for it.

[A Swing and A Drive]

According the that site, it would take the Pirates almost 2 Josh Bells to land Tristen Lutz! lol

[JosephC]

Thanks for posting this Clancy. Really gained some knowledge on Josh Bell based on this post.

 

At first glance, I could only laugh at the surplus value assigned to Josh Bell and assumed his number should be way up...40+ million easy.

 

However, I went back and looked at his recent seasonal fWAR/bWAR values and over the last two years he's only been, on average, a 1.8 bWAR/fWAR player per season. 2019 was much better than 2018, so maybe that was his breakthrough year and he'll continue to be a solid 2.5-3 WAR player from this point forward, but Steamer is only projecting him as a 1.9 WAR player in 2020.

 

So then looking at the salary end. Bell is entering arbitration but has put up big numbers in the categories that arbitrator look at HR and RBI. So while a player like Whit Merrifield gets ridiculously penalized because he doesn't post big numbers in those categories, a player like Bell probably will benefit more than he should. He's projected to make 5.9 million next year but I have a feeling that number could end up being a bit higher than that.

 

I wouldn't put Bell's estimated surplus value at a low number of 9.7 million. But surprisingly, I would only put the number at 20 million, less than half of what I would have anticipated going in.

[nate82]

According the that site, it would take the Pirates almost 2 Josh Bells to land Tristen Lutz! lol

 

When you take into account the 1B/DH market is over saturated with similar talent it is actually correct.

 

You can laugh at the value for Bell but the free agent and trade market has more 1B/DH types than there is demand for them. The Pirates will be lucky to get one top 100 prospect for Bell in this market.

[A Swing and A Drive]

According the that site, it would take the Pirates almost 2 Josh Bells to land Tristen Lutz! lol

 

When you take into account the 1B/DH market is over saturated with similar talent it is actually correct.

 

You can laugh at the value for Bell but the free agent and trade market has more 1B/DH types than there is demand for them. The Pirates will be lucky to get one top 100 prospect for Bell in this market.

 

 

A pretty comical take all around.

 

In 2019, in 527 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL at bats, Josh Bell hit 37 home runs with a .936 OPS

 

Between 2017-2019, in 1025 CLASS A+ AND BELOW MINOR LEAGUE at bats, Tristen Lutz has hit 35 home runs with a .781 OPS

 

And Tristen Lutz will not appear on any 2020 Top 100 prospect lists.

 

In fact, I'm willing to bet that he won't appear in any Top 200 lists.

 

Not many have been published yet, but he's not listed in Top 200 prospects on this list...

 

https://prospects365.com/2019/10/21/ray-butlers-2019-end-of-season-top-200-prospects/

 

I would not be just me and the Pittsburgh Pirates laughing at a Tristen Lutz for Josh Bell trade proposal, but everyone in baseball.

[nate82]

According the that site, it would take the Pirates almost 2 Josh Bells to land Tristen Lutz! lol

 

When you take into account the 1B/DH market is over saturated with similar talent it is actually correct.

 

You can laugh at the value for Bell but the free agent and trade market has more 1B/DH types than there is demand for them. The Pirates will be lucky to get one top 100 prospect for Bell in this market.

 

 

A pretty comical take all around.

 

In 2019, in 527 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL at bats, Josh Bell hit 37 home runs with a .936 OPS

 

Between 2017-2019, in 1025 CLASS A+ AND BELOW MINOR LEAGUE at bats, Tristen Lutz has hit 35 home runs with a .781 OPS

 

And Tristen Lutz will not appear on any 2020 Top 100 prospect lists.

 

In fact, I'm willing to bet that he won't appear in any Top 200 lists.

 

Not many have been published yet, but he's not listed in Top 200 prospects on this list...

 

https://prospects365.com/2019/10/21/ray-butlers-2019-end-of-season-top-200-prospects/

 

I would not be just me and the Pittsburgh Pirates laughing at a Tristen Lutz for Josh Bell trade proposal, but everyone in baseball.

 

Nice deflect on the over saturation of the 1B/DH market which is what is dragging Bell's and others value down.

[pacopete4]

I hope this isn't taken as piling on but I've always wanted Clancy to be a GM of a team because it would really interesting to see what that team would look like. Listen, we all are not qualified for that position but he has just so many outside the box ideas that it would be interesting to see what it would all look like and how it would function.

[TURBO]

How much is Archer's contract?

 

I saw his name and immediately gagged.

[liveforoctober]

According the that site, it would take the Pirates almost 2 Josh Bells to land Tristen Lutz! lol

 

When you take into account the 1B/DH market is over saturated with similar talent it is actually correct.

 

You can laugh at the value for Bell but the free agent and trade market has more 1B/DH types than there is demand for them. The Pirates will be lucky to get one top 100 prospect for Bell in this market.

 

Over saturated with similar talent? Who do you think is out there right now that is on the same level as Josh Bell?

[JosephC]

According the that site, it would take the Pirates almost 2 Josh Bells to land Tristen Lutz! lol

 

When you take into account the 1B/DH market is over saturated with similar talent it is actually correct.

 

You can laugh at the value for Bell but the free agent and trade market has more 1B/DH types than there is demand for them. The Pirates will be lucky to get one top 100 prospect for Bell in this market.

 

Based on my numbers, I see Bell's surplus value being nearly identical to Brice Turang's value, and Turang is probably right on the back end of the top 100.