Wade Miley to Reds - 2 years / $15 million

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To piggyback on Sveumrules' last post, Pythag record updates as the season goes on - so we're not talking about the skewed preseason win projections that have also significantly underestimated actual Brewer win totals.

 

+13 games of record error over 4 seasons based on actual runs scored/allowed over a few years is actually bad for the Pythag model. Not saying they got the Brewers wrong, just that it isn't a good model to compare win totals for a team like the Brewers.

 

Forgive me if I'm feeling pedantic and in the posting mood tonight, but the "pythagorean record" doesn't make any preseason predictions. I'm not a fan of the stat, as if Hernan Perez pitches in 12 losses in a year with a 36.00 ERA and the crew loses those 12 games by 100 total runs, it is still 12 losses in the standings, but the pythagorean record probably counts it as 40 losses or so (*no, I don't have any idea how many losses it says there should be, but it's definitely a lot more than 12)

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Over the last two years the Brewers +13 differential versus their pythag is the second largest margin behind only Baltimore at -14, so over the last two years anyway, pyhtag has been awfuller at predicting the Brewers record than all but 28 other teams.

 

snip

 

If you ran that list vs bullpen ERA I bet they would match up pretty well.

 

Anyway there is no way to know what the Reds rotation is going to be this year. If you take the worse of their past 2 years the rotation lines up like this for ERA 4.30, 4.48, 4.90, 4.93, 3.98. The best case looks like a fantastic rotation,the worst case looks like a bad one lacking depth after the top 5. There is just no way to know what they will bring because it is made up of highly inconsistent pitchers.

 

If you look at their lineup pretty much every player on the team except for Votto had their best year last year. There is going to be some offensive falloff almost for sure. Now maybe Moustakas pumps it back up to where it was last year but I don't see much improvement offensively for them next year unless Votto goes back to being Votto.

[Ennder]

Over the last two years the Brewers +13 differential versus their pythag is the second largest margin behind only Baltimore at -14, so over the last two years anyway, pyhtag has been awfuller at predicting the Brewers record than all but 28 other teams.

 

snip

 

If you ran that list vs bullpen ERA I bet they would match up pretty well.

 

Anyway there is no way to know what the Reds rotation is going to be this year. If you take the worse of their past 2 years the rotation lines up like this for ERA 4.30, 4.48, 4.90, 4.93, 3.98. The best case looks like a fantastic rotation,the worst case looks like a bad one lacking depth after the top 5. There is just no way to know what they will bring because it is made up of highly inconsistent pitchers.

 

If you look at their lineup pretty much every player on the team except for Votto had their best year last year. There is going to be some offensive falloff almost for sure. Now maybe Moustakas pumps it back up to where it was last year but I don't see much improvement offensively for them next year unless Votto goes back to being Votto.