Avi Garcia not extended QO - now a Free Agent 11/5/21

[DHonks]

Don't know about minors but he was a 1B in high school and the Marlins considered moving him there early on but didn't.

I really like Jeff Sullivan (formerly a great writer/personality for FanGraphs) and he now works in an MLB front office now (Rays).

 

He used to write draft pick recaps for SB Nation, and he did not nail his Yelich profile in 2010...

 

 

I thought about this one too. Yelich has back injuries that might do better with less running. Plus, we don't know how his knee will be...he should be fine. Will he have some limitations? 155 games at 1b is better than 130-140 in RF

[TJseven7]

39 Bombs!!

 

Not sure how to include this photo but if another posted could do it, by all means.

 

MKE was highly motivated to get Garcia. Well you don't say.

 

Never hit over 20 HRs. If he gets up close to 30 his OPS is well above 800.

[areacodes]

Remember, I specifically said FREE AGENT signing, and this does also NOT include a one year deal. It means a 2 year or more contract at a higher AAV for EVERY year of said deal. That does NOT include acquiring a contract via trade. There's a distinct difference. If they hadn't signed anyone for anywhere close to $10 mill a year until Avasail, who will they sign that's left, they would give more to.

 

I had to put these qualifiers in, because I know how people work. They'd acquire a contract via trade that's more or sign someone to a stupid one year deal(I hate those) for more and try to say that counts. It doesn't.

 

Nice try, but you guys would all be puffing out your chests saying you were "right" if they signed a FA to a ONE year deal at a higher AAV. I mean that's too easy, they did that last year. In fact, it seems like they like to live in "one year" deal world. I mean in the last three years, how many FA's have they signed to multiple years(3 or more years.. option years don't count)?? Cain, Thames and Lindblom now?? That's it?? In the last three years?? Ironically, 2 of them have come from the Korean league.

 

You 100% moved the goalposts and I’m not sure how you can even argue that you didn’t.

 

You originally said (and I quote) “I'm willing to bet a VERY large sum of money this is their "big" FA signing for the year, in terms of AAV.” And after Peavey commented you came back and changed the parameters with not a 1 year deal, has to be a higher AAV every year (which makes even less sense because, you know, AAV is like an average, man), etc.

 

You are absolutely correct that the Brewers could sign another free agent to a higher AAV contract this year either on a one year deal or multi year deal... both would have you losing a large sum of money based on your original parameters no matter how much you move the goalposts now.

[TJseven7]

Braun is not playing a full season at first. It won't happen. I don't know why people always jump to these conclusions but it's not fantasy baseball. None of the outfielders play 162, even Yelich is not the most durable guy assuming he plays there. There's still at least 80 appearances in the OF for Braun with Garcia there. Who knows how many games Cain can play anyway.

 

How about 62 starts. That's all he needs to make this fit perfectly.

[brewcrewdue80]

39 Bombs!!

 

Not sure how to include this photo but if another posted could do it, by all means.

 

But only 81 games are held at Miller Park. That is his full season spray chart. So maybe up to 25-28. If he hits 39 or more in a season I will streak one of the last Home games in the next 2 seasons.

[TJseven7]

39 Bombs!!

 

Not sure how to include this photo but if another posted could do it, by all means.

 

But only 81 games are held at Miller Park. That is his full season spray chart. So maybe up to 25-28. If he hits 39 or more in a season I will streak one of the last Home games in the next 2 seasons.

 

Career 751 OPS. Only 1 season where he was on pace for more than 20 HRs. If he puts up 25 to 28 he could be well above 800 OPS. That's nearly a 10 HR spike for him off his career averages. If he can do what he did in 2019 for the next two years and 5-8 more balls clear the fence, that's a heck of a player.

 

And his betting on himself is going to pay off.

[brewcrewdue80]

39 Bombs!!

 

Not sure how to include this photo but if another posted could do it, by all means.

 

But only 81 games are held at Miller Park. That is his full season spray chart. So maybe up to 25-28. If he hits 39 or more in a season I will streak one of the last Home games in the next 2 seasons.

 

Career 751 OPS. Only 1 season where he was on pace for more than 20 HRs. If he puts up 25 to 28 he could be well above 800 OPS. That's nearly a 10 HR spike for him off his career averages. If he can do what he did in 2019 for the next two years and 5-8 more balls clear the fence, that's a heck of a player.

 

And his betting on himself is going to pay off.

The statcast numbers show his launch angle higher than 2017. So like Yelich he's adding loft to get over the fence. Unlike Yelich, it was only a 2% increase frome an already higher Launch angle than Yelich's was previously.

 

That graph also showed a number of Foul outs that would be in the stands at MP. So a few more 2nd chances at production.

[clancyphile]

Don't know about minors but he was a 1B in high school and the Marlins considered moving him there early on but didn't.

I really like Jeff Sullivan (formerly a great writer/personality for FanGraphs) and he now works in an MLB front office now (Rays).

 

He used to write draft pick recaps for SB Nation, and he did not nail his Yelich profile in 2010...

 

 

There ya go. Something that makes me feel less crazy. I wonder what Yelich's exit velocity was back then. That stat probably didnt exist then. But curious if it was above normal then but his ground ball results just made it feel he was never going to get. The ball in the air long enough.

 

And we picked Dylan Covey that year.

 

WE PICKED DYLAN COVEY THAT YEAR!!!

[SRB]

39 Bombs!!

 

Not sure how to include this photo but if another posted could do it, by all means.

 

But only 81 games are held at Miller Park. That is his full season spray chart. So maybe up to 25-28. If he hits 39 or more in a season I will streak one of the last Home games in the next 2 seasons.

 

I'm not expecting him to, but it's interesting how similar his career batting line is to Moose's, and Moustakas only started hitting 25+, 30+ HR when he turned the age Garcia is going to be next season (and, in part, when he moved to Milwaukee)

[Fear The Chorizo]

I feel like Garcia has a pretty level swing and may not be tapping into the whole launch angle craze that has taken over large swaths of MLB...maybe a little tweak does him alot of good. Will also be interested seeing him on an NL club for the first time in his career.

 

Now go find a solid 3B and 1B that hit lefthanded, sign Keuchel, and let's get geared up for spring training!

[rickh150]

Feels like we have been saving nickels and cutting corners so that we can splurge on something, and this move was it. He needs to be an All Star consideration for this move to look good.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

@BNightengale

·

2m

Avisail Garcia's two-year,$20 million guarantee with the #Brewers could turn into a three-year, $30 million contract. He gets a 500K signing bonus, $7M in 2020, $10M in 2021 with a $12M club option or $2M buyout in 2022. Its a mutual option if he has 550 plate appearances in 2021

 

I like this deal better now. Although it's tough to see the team picking up his option if he has fewer than 550 plate appearances in 2021.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Feels like we have been saving nickels and cutting corners so that we can splurge on something, and this move was it. He needs to be an All Star consideration for this move to look good.

 

Weird criteria, no he doesn't.

[3and2Fastball]

39 Bombs!!

 

Not sure how to include this photo but if another posted could do it, by all means.

 

But only 81 games are held at Miller Park. That is his full season spray chart. So maybe up to 25-28. If he hits 39 or more in a season I will streak one of the last Home games in the next 2 seasons.

 

Plus 9 Games in Cincy

3 at Coors

3-5 at Wrigley when the wind is blowing out

3 at Philly

3 at D-Backs

This year 3 at Fenway

This year 3 at Camden Yards

————————————————

 

So: about 108-110 Games this season in Hitter’s Parks

[jonescm128]

Feels like we have been saving nickels and cutting corners so that we can splurge on something, and this move was it. He needs to be an All Star consideration for this move to look good.

 

Weird criteria, no he doesn't.

 

Agreed. Ben Gamel had a .710 OPS as our fourth outfielder last year. Even if Garcia can put up an .800 OPS this deal is worth it. This adds a talented bat while also bringing depth and stability to the OF group. Not to mention the possibility of a breakout season after what he has done in Tampa.

[adambr2]

@BNightengale

·

2m

Avisail Garcia's two-year,$20 million guarantee with the #Brewers could turn into a three-year, $30 million contract. He gets a 500K signing bonus, $7M in 2020, $10M in 2021 with a $12M club option or $2M buyout in 2022. Its a mutual option if he has 550 plate appearances in 2021

 

I like this deal better now. Although it's tough to see the team picking up his option if he has fewer than 550 plate appearances in 2021.

 

Not to get too far ahead of things but it would be interesting to see how they handled him in his second year if he were playing at an All-Star level and on pace to be right on the border of 550 PAs. That could have the potential to be ugly if he felt like they were deliberately suppressing his ABs to keep the team option.

[jonescm128]

@BNightengale

·

2m

Avisail Garcia's two-year,$20 million guarantee with the #Brewers could turn into a three-year, $30 million contract. He gets a 500K signing bonus, $7M in 2020, $10M in 2021 with a $12M club option or $2M buyout in 2022. Its a mutual option if he has 550 plate appearances in 2021

 

I like this deal better now. Although it's tough to see the team picking up his option if he has fewer than 550 plate appearances in 2021.

 

Not to get too far ahead of things but it would be interesting to see how they handled him in his second year if he were playing at an All-Star level and on pace to be right on the border of 550 PAs. That could have the potential to be ugly if he felt like they were deliberately suppressing his ABs to keep the team option.

 

I think if he were playing at an All-Star level in 2021, they would be happy to pay $12M in 2022 for an All-Star caliber bat.

[adambr2]

@BNightengale

·

2m

Avisail Garcia's two-year,$20 million guarantee with the #Brewers could turn into a three-year, $30 million contract. He gets a 500K signing bonus, $7M in 2020, $10M in 2021 with a $12M club option or $2M buyout in 2022. Its a mutual option if he has 550 plate appearances in 2021

 

I like this deal better now. Although it's tough to see the team picking up his option if he has fewer than 550 plate appearances in 2021.

 

Not to get too far ahead of things but it would be interesting to see how they handled him in his second year if he were playing at an All-Star level and on pace to be right on the border of 550 PAs. That could have the potential to be ugly if he felt like they were deliberately suppressing his ABs to keep the team option.

 

I think if he were playing at an All-Star level in 2021, they would be happy to pay $12M in 2022 for an All-Star caliber bat.

 

That's my point. It would become a mutual option which Garcia would surely decline if he were playing at that level.

[long ball]

@BNightengale

·

2m

Avisail Garcia's two-year,$20 million guarantee with the #Brewers could turn into a three-year, $30 million contract. He gets a 500K signing bonus, $7M in 2020, $10M in 2021 with a $12M club option or $2M buyout in 2022. Its a mutual option if he has 550 plate appearances in 2021

 

I like this deal better now. Although it's tough to see the team picking up his option if he has fewer than 550 plate appearances in 2021.

 

Am I bad at math or does this only add up to $19.5mm guaranteed?

[jonescm128]

 

Not to get too far ahead of things but it would be interesting to see how they handled him in his second year if he were playing at an All-Star level and on pace to be right on the border of 550 PAs. That could have the potential to be ugly if he felt like they were deliberately suppressing his ABs to keep the team option.

 

I think if he were playing at an All-Star level in 2021, they would be happy to pay $12M in 2022 for an All-Star caliber bat.

 

That's my point. It would become a mutual option which Garcia would surely decline if he were playing at that level.

 

Oh duh. My bad.

[MrTPlush]

There is no way the Brewers suppress his ABs to make it a team option...not unless we never want to sign another FA again. Either he makes it or doesn't. We won't want him around if we screwed him over like that.

 

As far as people assuming Braun will get a lot of time at 1B...it is kind of logical. The Brewers already said they have talked to Braun about a larger role at 1B. He makes sense as a RHB of a platoon and this move crams the OF. He will most certainly not be their with out a partner and due to injuries in the OF probably won't be at 1B even half the time.

[JosephC]

Garcia broke into MLB in 2012 and has only hit the 550 PA mark two times. He became a full time player in 2015 and over the last five years has averaged 466 PA per season.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think this points to their 26th roster spot being manned by an OF assuming everyone's healthy. Having Yelich, Garcia, and Cain to go with Gamel is a good top 4 - then you can shuffle Braun's playing time primarily at 1B with some OF mixed in, and potentially still have room for Broxton at the end of the bench as the primary defensive OF replacement.

 

Narvaez/Pina as catchers

Hiura 2b with Arcia or Urias serving as a late inning defensive replacement

Urias/Arcia at SS

Lefty hitting 1B to platoon or share time with Braun (Thames? Smith (Mets)?)

Lefty hitting 3B (Seager?), or shot in the dark stud 3B (Donaldson?)

 

That winds up totaling 13 position players to go with 13 pitchers, and away we go!

[Roderick]

@BNightengale

·

2m

Avisail Garcia's two-year,$20 million guarantee with the #Brewers could turn into a three-year, $30 million contract. He gets a 500K signing bonus, $7M in 2020, $10M in 2021 with a $12M club option or $2M buyout in 2022. Its a mutual option if he has 550 plate appearances in 2021

 

I like this deal better now. Although it's tough to see the team picking up his option if he has fewer than 550 plate appearances in 2021.

 

Am I bad at math or does this only add up to $19.5mm guaranteed?

 

It is only $19.5M. I assume someone rounded up at some point in the story chain to get the tweet out there first.

 

From mlbtraderumors:

That brings Garcia’s actual guarantee to $19.5MM over two years, with a chance to top out at $29.5MM over a three-year term.

[Ennder]

Feels like we have been saving nickels and cutting corners so that we can splurge on something, and this move was it. He needs to be an All Star consideration for this move to look good.

 

This isn't splurging on something and a deal like this is so low in value it is a huge value if he is considered for an all star game. That would make this a steal. This is not a big contract at all.