Avi Garcia not extended QO - now a Free Agent 11/5/21

[balsamlaker]

Nine less at bats in 2020 when he was having a down year and Avisail probably has the Brewers simply accept the club option, as the mutual option would not have been triggered.

[sveumrules]

Yelich (101 wRC+) & Cain (97 wRC+) were neutral with the bat, JBJ was the only actual minus. The OF also gets paid to play defense & saved 36 runs by DRS (2nd most in MLB), so they were a contributing factor to the exceptional run prevention.

 

Another wasted year of incredible starting pitching? The 2021 Brewers easily exceeded preseason expectations & greatly improved their outlook over the next 2-3 seasons in doing so. Hard for me to qualify that as a waste either.

 

So you think our outfield was effective offensively?

 

I think the outfield was about 11% below average at the plate last year, because they had an 89 wRC+. I think their overall performance was still above average (6.6 WAR, 11th) on account of plus base running (+8.3, 8th) and fielding (+31.5 UZR, 1st | +36 DRS, 2nd).

 

I think Garcia (2.9 WAR | 10.75 million), Cain (1.8 WAR | 17 million) & Yelich (1.5 WAR | 14 million) all put up production in line with or exceeding their salary. That leaves JBJ as the only OF who money was wasted on in 2021 & I don't consider 3 million in actual salary a ton relative to MLB finances.

[Simba2020]

Yelich (101 wRC+) & Cain (97 wRC+) were neutral with the bat, JBJ was the only actual minus. The OF also gets paid to play defense & saved 36 runs by DRS (2nd most in MLB), so they were a contributing factor to the exceptional run prevention.

 

Another wasted year of incredible starting pitching? The 2021 Brewers easily exceeded preseason expectations & greatly improved their outlook over the next 2-3 seasons in doing so. Hard for me to qualify that as a waste either.

 

So you think our outfield was effective offensively?

 

I think the outfield was about 11% below average at the plate last year, because they had an 89 wRC+. I think their overall performance was still above average (6.6 WAR, 11th) on account of plus base running (+8.3, 8th) and fielding (+31.5 UZR, 1st | +36 DRS, 2nd).

 

I think Garcia (2.9 WAR | 10.75 million), Cain (1.8 WAR | 17 million) & Yelich (1.5 WAR | 14 million) all put up production in line with or exceeding their salary. That leaves JBJ as the only OF who money was wasted on in 2021 & I don't consider 3 million in actual salary a ton relative to MLB finances.

I refuse to accept that Cain and Yelich sniffed their salary production. I understand well where the concept comes from but I will continue to wholeheartedly disagree that WAR is worth $9 million or whatever. I get how the number gets calculated. How much money did Albert Pujols, Jacoby Ellsbury, Robinson Cano, Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, etc, etc, etc. earn and how much WAR did they produce? All that does is completely bloat the value of WAR. None of those players are worth what they are/were paid, can't be traded without copious amounts of money being included if at all, yet somehow those types of players/contracts are used to justify the value of WAR.

 

I looked at what I would consider the 7 most comparable players signed in free agency in the offseason to the production we got out of Cain and Yelich this year. Those would be Eddie Rosario, Brett Gardner, Kevin Pillar, Robbie Grossman, Kyle Schwarber, Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez. Not one of those players got more than $10 million AAV and averaged a bit over $6.1 million AAV. Collectively, those 7 players produced fWAR of 13.4. That results in an unrealistic $3.2 million/fWAR but more in line with what players get in free agency than trying to justify somebody's worth by using a $9/WAR metric.

[Eye Black]

Per Adam McCalvy…

 

The Brewers will not be extending any qualifying offers at today’s deadline. Avisail García was one possibility after he declined his half of a mutual option, but he remains a free agent free and clear.

[balsamlaker]

A good day for Tyrone Taylor. The team will need another outfielder (unless Garcia resigns) unless they feel comfortable with Corey Ray as the fifth outfielder.

[markedman5]

[DHonks]

A good day for Tyrone Taylor. The team will need another outfielder (unless Garcia resigns) unless they feel comfortable with Corey Ray as the fifth outfielder.

 

I think you mean Corey Ray as about 8th outfielder. I’d rather have Peterson and any minor league free agent over Ray

[sveumrules]

I refuse to accept that Cain and Yelich sniffed their salary production. I understand well where the concept comes from but I will continue to wholeheartedly disagree that WAR is worth $9 million or whatever. I get how the number gets calculated. How much money did Albert Pujols, Jacoby Ellsbury, Robinson Cano, Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, etc, etc, etc. earn and how much WAR did they produce? All that does is completely bloat the value of WAR. None of those players are worth what they are/were paid, can't be traded without copious amounts of money being included if at all, yet somehow those types of players/contracts are used to justify the value of WAR.

 

I looked at what I would consider the 7 most comparable players signed in free agency in the offseason to the production we got out of Cain and Yelich this year. Those would be Eddie Rosario, Brett Gardner, Kevin Pillar, Robbie Grossman, Kyle Schwarber, Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez. Not one of those players got more than $10 million AAV and averaged a bit over $6.1 million AAV. Collectively, those 7 players produced fWAR of 13.4. That results in an unrealistic $3.2 million/fWAR but more in line with what players get in free agency than trying to justify somebody's worth by using a $9/WAR metric.

 

You can refuse to accept it, but all the players that signed huge free agent contracts & subsequently bombed absolutely contribute to the dollar per WAR calculations because they represent the inherent risks of the whole process.

 

No doubt there are limitations in saying 1 WAR equals X dollars & the reality of how front offices actually operate is much more complicated, but picking out a handful of free agents that are retroactively similar in production & saying that should be the baseline doesn't get us any closer to the truth.

 

However one wants to slice it, Yelich/Cain both provided some degree of production & didn't prevent the team from easily winning their division, so in my opinion anyway, while they may not have completely "earned" their salary, it also wasn't "wasted". You provided plenty of examples of what wasted salary actually looks like.

[Simba2020]

I refuse to accept that Cain and Yelich sniffed their salary production. I understand well where the concept comes from but I will continue to wholeheartedly disagree that WAR is worth $9 million or whatever. I get how the number gets calculated. How much money did Albert Pujols, Jacoby Ellsbury, Robinson Cano, Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, etc, etc, etc. earn and how much WAR did they produce? All that does is completely bloat the value of WAR. None of those players are worth what they are/were paid, can't be traded without copious amounts of money being included if at all, yet somehow those types of players/contracts are used to justify the value of WAR.

 

I looked at what I would consider the 7 most comparable players signed in free agency in the offseason to the production we got out of Cain and Yelich this year. Those would be Eddie Rosario, Brett Gardner, Kevin Pillar, Robbie Grossman, Kyle Schwarber, Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez. Not one of those players got more than $10 million AAV and averaged a bit over $6.1 million AAV. Collectively, those 7 players produced fWAR of 13.4. That results in an unrealistic $3.2 million/fWAR but more in line with what players get in free agency than trying to justify somebody's worth by using a $9/WAR metric.

 

You can refuse to accept it, but all the players that signed huge free agent contracts & subsequently bombed absolutely contribute to the dollar per WAR calculations because they represent the inherent risks of the whole process.

 

No doubt there are limitations in saying 1 WAR equals X dollars & the reality of how front offices actually operate is much more complicated, but picking out a handful of free agents that are retroactively similar in production & saying that should be the baseline doesn't get us any closer to the truth.

 

However one wants to slice it, Yelich/Cain both provided some degree of production & didn't prevent the team from easily winning their division, so in my opinion anyway, while they may not have completely "earned" their salary, it also wasn't "wasted". You provided plenty of examples of what wasted salary actually looks like.

I will refuse to accept it. Let's look at it from another point of view. Let's say for four straight years, Yelich produced exactly 1.5 of WAR and then became a free agent. What kind of AAV would he be looking at in free agency? Something along the lines of $7 million. So if he would get something like $7 million in free agency and produced another 1.5 WAR season, why would I suddenly say he was a $14 million player?

[balsamlaker]

Similarly, there are a lot of MLB players "underpaid" during their pre-arby years.

[Axman59]

Can we not recycle 2 year old threads to discuss a player? Good grief. At least change the title.

[adambr2]

The Brewers did not offer Garcia a QO.

[TURBO]

Can we not recycle 2 year old threads to discuss a player? Good grief. At least change the title.

 

yeah, all those old threads have been bumped, which can be confusing if you read the titles.

 

I'm with you...

[monty57]

Yelich (101 wRC+) & Cain (97 wRC+) were neutral with the bat, JBJ was the only actual minus. The OF also gets paid to play defense & saved 36 runs by DRS (2nd most in MLB), so they were a contributing factor to the exceptional run prevention.

 

Another wasted year of incredible starting pitching? The 2021 Brewers easily exceeded preseason expectations & greatly improved their outlook over the next 2-3 seasons in doing so. Hard for me to qualify that as a waste either.

 

Yeah, I don't get the "we can't win with this offense" line of reasoning when we posted one of the best seasons in Brewer history. If not for the team resting it's players for the final two weeks, they would have likely won the most games in team history. I know people don't like to hear it, but the playoffs in baseball is a bit of a crapshoot, largely depending on which team gets hot at the right time. The Braves were arguably the worst team that made the playoffs this year, and they won it all.

 

Stearns has limited resources to work with, and has decided to build the team on pitching and defense. Every team has their weaknesses, but people are really hammering on our lack of offense and seemingly forgetting that we had a pretty good team this year that won a lot of games. They just aren't built to be an offensive juggernaut. Stearns is putting resources into keeping the other team from scoring, so they shouldn't have to score a ton of runs.

 

As to Garcia, the Brewers obviously didn't want to risk having to spend $18.4M on him for one year, so that either shows that they don't think he's worth that much, or that they don't have that much to spend. I hope it's the former, as I hope they have some money to spend this offseason. I think that Taylor showed enough this year that they are willing to let him start, with JBJ and probably another RH-hitting OF as the backups getting a decent amount of playing time. Stearns must feel that the limited resources are better spent on upgrades elsewhere.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Can we not recycle 2 year old threads to discuss a player? Good grief. At least change the title.

 

Ask nicer.

[Outlander]

Thanks for the thread title update. Agree that new threads may be necessary after a transaction. I thought they actually signed Pina to a one year deal until looking inside that one. The JBJ and Maile threads are examples of doing it right.

[Oxy]

Can we not recycle 2 year old threads to discuss a player? Good grief. At least change the title.

 

Ask nicer.

 

Please and thank you!

[timpep]

I will refuse to accept it. Let's look at it from another point of view. Let's say for four straight years, Yelich produced exactly 1.5 of WAR and then became a free agent. What kind of AAV would he be looking at in free agency? Something along the lines of $7 million. So if he would get something like $7 million in free agency and produced another 1.5 WAR season, why would I suddenly say he was a $14 million player?

 

Ding ding ding, 100% spot on. The $9mil per war amount is a fairly useless statistic that only really comes up when people want to defend a bad player/contract.

[mtrebs]

Can we not recycle 2 year old threads to discuss a player? Good grief. At least change the title.

 

Ha! I initiated this within this thread because there were numerous other threads already doing this so I didn’t want to get hollered at for doing differently. Goes to show you can’t please everyone.

 

FWIW, this thread was being used during the season to discuss whether or not the option would be picked up, which is part of the contract that this thread is about, so it’s isn’t really that crazy to continue on when the options were declined. I agree with the clarification in the subject though.