Avi Garcia not extended QO - now a Free Agent 11/5/21

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Castellanos is likely looking at $20+ million per year for at least 4 years. Is he that much of a better bet to live up to that sort of deal than Avi would on a 1-year qualifying offer?

 

The ceiling is way higher for Castellanos and his track record is honestly in a different universe. Castellenos has posted an .800+ OPS 5/6 of his past 6 years. The shortened 2020 was his only year he has not...and was just barely under .800.

 

Garcia on the other hand has two .800+ OPS seasons in his entire career, which were separated by three years.

 

I agree with you that Castellanos has the likely higher ceiling. It's a manner of the ends justifying the means. Is he THAT much of an improvement over Avi to justify the huge guaranteed money jump? If Avi takes the qualifying offer, they have a motivated player for next year at $18.4 million, and that's it. Then they can examine the market next offseason once again, or perhaps a player like Weimer, Mitchell or Frelick will be ready by 2023?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

and am not counting on him to replicate in '22 what he did in '21.

 

Why not? He'll be a 30-year-old who is playing for a potential big, long-term contract. The guy came to camp in better shape than he ever has this year, and ended up having a very good season both offensively and defensively likely because of that. That same motivation will be there as he plays under what is essentially a 1-year deal in 2022.

[Jopal78]

I don't think the Brewers are going to sign a free agent to a multi-year contract with an AAV for 20 million dollars. More probably true than not, Garcia would reject a qualifying offer, however it really comes down to whether he cares most about the AAV or overall guarantee on a multi-year deal.

 

Likewise, the Brewers intent most likely is to obtain additional draft compensation when Garcia leaves, and the decision to offer the QO or not really boils down to how comfortable they are in carrying Garcia in 2022 at potentially 18.4 million dollars in salary. Because a team that is never going to have a $150+ million dollar payroll doesn't have a lot of "flexibility" when they've committed 70 million dollars in payroll to four outfielders.

[adambr2]

and am not counting on him to replicate in '22 what he did in '21.

 

Why not? He'll be a 30-year-old who is playing for a potential big, long-term contract. The guy came to camp in better shape than he ever has this year, and ended up having a very good season both offensively and defensively likely because of that. That same motivation will be there as he plays under what is essentially a 1-year deal in 2022.

 

Because it would be an aberration compared to most of his seasons in a long career.

[MrTPlush]

and am not counting on him to replicate in '22 what he did in '21.

 

Why not? He'll be a 30-year-old who is playing for a potential big, long-term contract. The guy came to camp in better shape than he ever has this year, and ended up having a very good season both offensively and defensively likely because of that. That same motivation will be there as he plays under what is essentially a 1-year deal in 2022.

 

He was playing a for a big contract this year. If he can’t get a big contract this offseason…why would he be dreaming of one next offseason?

 

I’d much rather have Castellanos…but I don’t think we can afford him. Honestly, not sure we can afford Garcia at a QO price.

[JohnBriggs12]

What's your alternative? They like a 4 man outfield rotation and they only have three in Yelich, Cain, and Taylor without Avi. I'm sure there are some decent guys out there that will have to settle on short term deals but probably not the quality of Garcia.

[TURBO]

What's your alternative? They like a 4 man outfield rotation and they only have three in Yelich, Cain, and Taylor without Avi. I'm sure there are some decent guys out there that will have to settle on short term deals but probably not the quality of Garcia.

 

They also have JBJ, so Yelich, Cain, Taylor and JBJ. that is a 4 man rotation, and I really hope they add another big bat outfielder.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

and am not counting on him to replicate in '22 what he did in '21.

 

Why not? He'll be a 30-year-old who is playing for a potential big, long-term contract. The guy came to camp in better shape than he ever has this year, and ended up having a very good season both offensively and defensively likely because of that. That same motivation will be there as he plays under what is essentially a 1-year deal in 2022.

 

He was playing a for a big contract this year. If he can’t get a big contract this offseason…why would he be dreaming of one next offseason?

 

I’d much rather have Castellanos…but I don’t think we can afford him. Honestly, not sure we can afford Garcia at a QO price.

 

Like I said earlier, he's probably looking at $14-$15+ million a year on a 4-year deal. I would say 4 years and $60 million guaranteed is a big contract. He needs to weigh whether its worth entering the open market hoping he'll get that, or whether its prudent to take $18.4 million from the Brewers for one year, then try again next year.

[TURBO]

 

Like I said earlier, he's probably looking at $14-$15+ million a year on a 4-year deal. I would say 4 years and $60 million guaranteed is a big contract. He needs to weigh whether its worth entering the open market hoping he'll get that, or whether its prudent to take $18.4 million from the Brewers for one year, then try again next year.

 

I think he had a pretty good season, and if he wants to cash in on it now, this is the time.

 

If he were to be injured next year, or have a down year, it would obviously effect his next contract.

 

I think for him personally, he made the right decision.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Like I said earlier, he's probably looking at $14-$15+ million a year on a 4-year deal. I would say 4 years and $60 million guaranteed is a big contract. He needs to weigh whether its worth entering the open market hoping he'll get that, or whether its prudent to take $18.4 million from the Brewers for one year, then try again next year.

 

I think he had a pretty good season, and if he wants to cash in on it now, this is the time.

 

If he were to be injured next year, or have a down year, it would obviously effect his next contract.

 

I think for him personally, he made the right decision.

 

The decision isn't quite over yet. He turned down the $12 million option, which was a given. The Brewers need to decide whether to now extend a $18.4 million one-year qualifying offer. If he accepts that (should it be offered), he is essentially on a one-year deal, and will hit free agency again next year.

[TURBO]

 

Like I said earlier, he's probably looking at $14-$15+ million a year on a 4-year deal. I would say 4 years and $60 million guaranteed is a big contract. He needs to weigh whether its worth entering the open market hoping he'll get that, or whether its prudent to take $18.4 million from the Brewers for one year, then try again next year.

 

I think he had a pretty good season, and if he wants to cash in on it now, this is the time.

 

If he were to be injured next year, or have a down year, it would obviously effect his next contract.

 

I think for him personally, he made the right decision.

 

The decision isn't quite over yet. He turned down the $12 million option, which was a given. The Brewers need to decide whether to now extend a $18.4 million one-year qualifying offer. If he accepts that (should it be offered), he is essentially on a one-year deal, and will hit free agency again next year.

 

Yup, but I don't think he would accept it, better off trying to get that 4 year 60 million deal and be all set...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yup, but I don't think he would accept it, better off trying to get that 4 year 60 million deal and be all set...

 

Agreed. I don't believe he'd accept it, either. Unless for some reason he over inflates his own market potential. There is quite the glut of corner OF power bats set to hit the market, so it is possible he might take the easy payday, rather than sit around on the market, where the chance remains that he may only get offers similar to the contract he just played under.

[TURBO]

Yup, but I don't think he would accept it, better off trying to get that 4 year 60 million deal and be all set...

 

Agreed. I don't believe he'd accept it, either. Unless for some reason he over inflates his own market potential. There is quite the glut of corner OF power bats set to hit the market, so it is possible he might take the easy payday, rather than sit around on the market, where the chance remains that he may only get offers similar to the contract he just played under.

 

 

always the possibility...

[mtrebs]

If the Brewers make the qualifying offer and Garcia declines it, doesn’t any team that sounds him have to give a better draft pick? If the Brewers aren’t going to target any outfielders for a longer-term contract, then maybe it’s worth that gamble. At worst you have your first 4 outfielders set already.

[brewcrewdue80]

Heres my take. Brewers offer him the QO he's accepting it 100pct. He cannot test FA market with draft comp attached to him. Meanwhile the following year he would be free from a QO. He seems to know how to play well before testing FA so I expect he'd have a good season once again after accepting the offer.

 

The big problem would be when he does Milw has just about nothing left to spend in FA and there is your FA buy.

 

Castellanos is a pipedream. Can't tie that contract in to the future payroll.

most likely the Brewers don't offer the QO getting nothing back while losing a FA to a 15M plus contract.

That to me is where MLB needs to compensate lost players to FA. Instead of the QO, make the AAV amount what qualifies as compensation without losing a draft pick. You could set it at like the average value of #100 to receive the comp. Maybe you make RPs at 125 for a comp. For a club to have to pay 18.4Mil to receive a comp is asinine since large markets will just toss them QOs and small markets tend to shy away or trade the player a year before having to face the decision.

 

Going to add this may be a good idea if the new CBA reduces team control to 5years. About the only way it is abused is say the Yankees and Dodgers etc. swap FAs they have by signing them to a big contract. Maybe then you only give them a 2nd rd comp vs say bottom 20 markets a 1st rd comp. End the removal of draft picks altogether.

[balsamlaker]

I would think the Brewers would have agreed to the mutual option, so the question is are you willing to pay another $6.4 million to keep Avisail or get a draft pick? Probably an easy choice (yes) for a large market team, but a really tough decision for a small market club.

[SRB]

Sadly, to me it's a no-brainer that you withhold the qualifying offer. Can't gamble on him accepting and the team having no money to fill various holes, unless ownership is willing to set a record payroll after gambling on the draft pick.

[DHonks]

Need to remember that many teams doing value draft picks the way fans iMessage boards deal. Some teams might be giving up a second or third round pick for signing him and that seems like a bargain

[Simba2020]

Personally I don't see the Brewers extending the offer. I would not do so. Not sure if he'd accept it but in my opinion he should. I don't see him getting more than 2/$25 or 3/$39 kind of deal.

[brewers888]

Garcia is going to find a very cold market this winter and wish he had taken the option year. No reason whatsoever to extend a qualifying offer. Garcia had a good season last year but no reason to bet on it happening again and jeez have we wasted a ton of money on this outfield.

[sveumrules]

Garcia is going to find a very cold market this winter and wish he had taken the option year. No reason whatsoever to extend a qualifying offer. Garcia had a good season last year but no reason to bet on it happening again and jeez have we wasted a ton of money on this outfield.

 

According to Spotrac the Brewers outfield had the 4th highest salary in 2021, while FanGraphs had them 11th in WAR as a group. They might not have gotten what they paid for, but that doesn't necessarily mean the money was wasted. The season was an overall succes & the OF contributed to that success.

 

Teams I would say wasted a ton of money on the OF last year would be...

 

LAA (1st in salary, 29th in WAR, missed playoffs)

SDP (6th in salary, 20th in WAR, missed playoffs)

COL (7th in salary, 25th in WAR, missed playoffs)

CHC (8th in salary, 19th in WAR, missed playoffs)

NYM (10th in salary, 27th in WAR, missed playoffs)

[brewers888]

Garcia is going to find a very cold market this winter and wish he had taken the option year. No reason whatsoever to extend a qualifying offer. Garcia had a good season last year but no reason to bet on it happening again and jeez have we wasted a ton of money on this outfield.

 

According to Spotrac the Brewers outfield had the 4th highest salary in 2021, while FanGraphs had them 11th in WAR as a group. They might not have gotten what they paid for, but that doesn't necessarily mean the money was wasted. The season was an overall succes & the OF contributed to that success.

 

Teams I would say wasted a ton of money on the OF last year would be...

 

LAA (1st in salary, 29th in WAR, missed playoffs)

SDP (6th in salary, 20th in WAR, missed playoffs)

COL (7th in salary, 25th in WAR, missed playoffs)

CHC (8th in salary, 19th in WAR, missed playoffs)

NYM (10th in salary, 27th in WAR, missed playoffs)

 

I would guess roughly half of the Brewers payroll was spent on the outfield yet Garcia was the only one that wasn't a minus with the bat unless you include the minimum salaried Taylor. The Brewers were a playoff team due to exceptional pitching despite our bloated salaried outfield.

 

The Brewers lineup was the worst of any playoff team. It was nice that they could score against the likes of Chicago and Pittsburgh but they weren't going to be facing minor league talent in the postseason and the results showed.

 

This lineup didn't have one guy that other teams feared. Bringing back Garcia and essentially going with the same lineup will likely lead to another year of wasting incredible starting pitching. Its great that guys like Cain and Bradley play great defense but their bats are not nearly good enough especially when you consider how much money they are making.

[sveumrules]

Yelich (101 wRC+) & Cain (97 wRC+) were neutral with the bat, JBJ was the only actual minus. The OF also gets paid to play defense & saved 36 runs by DRS (2nd most in MLB), so they were a contributing factor to the exceptional run prevention.

 

Another wasted year of incredible starting pitching? The 2021 Brewers easily exceeded preseason expectations & greatly improved their outlook over the next 2-3 seasons in doing so. Hard for me to qualify that as a waste either.

[Outlander]

I would think the Brewers would have agreed to the mutual option, so the question is are you willing to pay another $6.4 million to keep Avisail or get a draft pick? Probably an easy choice (yes) for a large market team, but a really tough decision for a small market club.

It is another 8.4 million. That $2million is gone, he would basically be making 20.4 million this year. If they both mutually agreed to the option they would be paying him $12.

[TURBO]

Yelich (101 wRC+) & Cain (97 wRC+) were neutral with the bat, JBJ was the only actual minus. The OF also gets paid to play defense & saved 36 runs by DRS (2nd most in MLB), so they were a contributing factor to the exceptional run prevention.

 

Another wasted year of incredible starting pitching? The 2021 Brewers easily exceeded preseason expectations & greatly improved their outlook over the next 2-3 seasons in doing so. Hard for me to qualify that as a waste either.

 

So you think our outfield was effective offensively?